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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, June 01, 2018

Gold Stocks Back in the Volatility Saddle Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger dissects his volatility trades.

One week ago today, I made the following commentary:

"Finally, I am officially revisiting the "volatility trade" (VIX: CBOE Volatililty Index) but unlike February where I used the UVXY (ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short) as my proxy for the increase in volatility, I am using the TVIX (VelocityShares Daily 2X VIX ST ETN) because it is a double leverage ETF for the VIX but has better leverage than the UVXY. UVXY used to be a triple-leverage play on volatility but the slippage due to its dependence on futures became too difficult to navigate and they cut the leverage from 3:1 to 2:1. I had a 250% gain on this in February but gave back 9.84% in April. I am long 50% of the TVIX position from yesterday at $4.95 and am using the opening this morning to add another 25% in the $5.25 range. I will again use a 10% stop-loss but since the 52-week low is $4.60, that will be the exit level. Upside target will be $8.00 remembering of course that the 52-week high was $26.56.

The month of May is rapidly coming to a close, which starts what is historically the worst six months of the year. With the situations in Turkey and Italy worsening, with the North Korean summit in question, central banks engaged in "quantitative tightening," rising oil prices, and the possibility that the China-U.S. trade talks go south, markets are going to be in peril as summer illiquidity arrives. For this reason, gold "should" be the go-to asset, but I am banking on volatility rather than gold as the preferred method of riding the correction."

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Commodities

Friday, June 01, 2018

A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Peter_Degraaf

Featured is the weekly gold chart. The green arrows point to ‘upside reversals’, developing after price dropped below the 50WMA. The blue arrows point to a positive follow-through, following an upside reversal. A similar situation back in December enabled gold to rise for 5 out of 6 weeks! The current rise has the potential to jump above the $1365 resistance area with a target at $1395. The RSI is neutral, but the A/D line is positive.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 31, 2018

Emerging Market Meltdown Could Undermine Oil Price Rally / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Saudi Arabia and Russia just destroyed the oil price rally, potentially putting an end to all the speculation about what the group might do next. But higher production doesn’t necessarily mean higher oil prices are entirely out of the question, and in fact, the oil market is still faced with a ton of uncertainty.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 31, 2018

Topping USD’s Implications for Gold Investors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The euro plunged, the USD Index soared and gold… just stayed put. There was no meaningful action except for the big intraday volatility that ended in a rather small decline. Can one infer anything at all from the above combination of factors? Yes, if one knows where to look.

Let’s start by recalling what was the likely reason behind the recent strength in the precious metals in the first place and why did gold move (a bit) higher along with the USD Index.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 31, 2018

This is When Gold Will Soar… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Despite the insistence of some, precious metals have not been in a bull market. After a big pop at the start of 2016, the sector has trended lower. Sure, Gold has traded up towards a major breakout but Silver and the gold stocks have trended lower. When the US Dollar corrected significantly, the stock market outperformed precious metals. Does that sound like a Gold bull market to you? The moribund performance has left us wondering what could turn the tide. A quick study of Fed history with the context of current conditions is very instructive as to when Gold could begin a true bull market.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

How Far Is it from North Korea to Italy? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Almost 5500 miles ( 8,800 kilometers ) . That’s the distance between Pyongyang and Rome. It seems a lot, right? But not for gold, the truly global monetary asset. In recent days, the price of the yellow metal has immediately reacted to the developments around both North Korea and Italy. What has happened?

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Silver Trading in Tight $1 Range As Pressure Builds For A Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

- Trump Cancels Historic Summit with North Korea
– US 10-Year Falls Below 3%, Gold Jumps Back Above $1300
– “Inflation Overshoot Could Be Helpful” – Latest FOMC Minutes
– Gold Demand in Turkey as Lira falls sharply, true inflation near 40%
– EU Crisis Looming as Italy Plan Outright ‘Money Printing’ with ‘Mini-Bots’
– Silver Trading in Tight $1 range, Pressure Building for a Breakout (see chart)

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Commodities

Saturday, May 26, 2018

Three Drivers of Gold, Second Look / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Let’s take a second look at the drivers of gold. We have already stated that the three most important factors are: the real interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and the risk aversion. Fair enough. But we have presented just the first approximation. We need to dig deeper. Why?

First, all these variables are connected together. Many analysts and investors who listen to them often make a mistake, assuming that the forces which push one driver have no effect on the other inputs into the value of gold. This is a dangerous delusion, which may expose investors to heavy losses.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 26, 2018

Gold Junior Stocks GDXJ ETF Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The junior gold miners have largely been shunned over the past year or so, condemned to listlessly drift near lows.  Their stock prices have suffered serious collateral damage from stubbornly-bearish gold sentiment.  But they are faring much better under the hood than their battered visages suggest, with their latest quarterly results revealing strong fundamentals.  Juniors are ready to soar when gold sentiment turns.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

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Commodities

Friday, May 25, 2018

Crude Oil: It’s Here! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In the previous alerts we let you know how the situation in the crude oil was becoming increasingly bearish, but that it was not yet bearish enough to justify any action regarding the price. The risk was still too high to do so, and we explained that waiting for the confirmation was the preferable course of action. The confirmation has arrived.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 24, 2018

June Hike Is Coming. Will Gold Survive? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The message from the recent FOMC minutes is clear: brace yourself for the interest rate hike next month. Should gold bulls be worried? Gold’s reaction shows that not necessarily. You will find more details in our today’s analysis.

June Hike Is Virtually a Foregone Conclusion
Yesterday, the U.S. central bank published minutes from the recent FOMC meeting. What are the take-home messages from them?

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Commodities

Thursday, May 24, 2018

What if This Week’s Rally in Gold is Already Over? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In yesterday’s analysis, we explained how it’s possible for the precious metals sector to move higher in very short term and at the same time still form the next local bottom close to $1,250. The key part of the analysis was that this week’s turning point may turn out to be declines’ starting, not ending. We also argued that we could see a small decline in the USD Index and that might be enough to cool down traders’ emotions. It seems that we have seen just that, and now the question is: how soon can we expect gold to decline?

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

A GOLD Bull market is beginning / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Enda_Glynn

Hello everyone!

I hope the sun is shining wherever you find yourself!

Things are looking up for GOLD at last!

We may well have just created a very important low this week, it is now time to focus on this turn to see if we can nail the beginning of this turn.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Is It Time To Just Sell All Your Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GLD.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

What’s Next for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold failed to breakout in the spring and recently lost weekly support at $1310. Meanwhile, the gold stocks have held up well in recent weeks (considering Gold) but still have much to prove. Silver couldn’t rally much when its net speculative position was at an all time low. The question now is where do things go from here. The price action is not bullish but with a Fed hike looming and negative sentiment, Gold could be poised to snapback after testing lower levels.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Mayday, Mayday, Gold Price Is Sinking! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold dived below $1,300 last week, to many analysts’ surprise. They are panicking right now. But you do not have to. Let’s read our article and find out what is happening in the gold market!

Didn’t we tell you?
We don’t want to be like these annoying guys who always utter “didn’t we tell you?”. But, well, this is our job after all: to provide you with the finest fundamental outlook of the precious metal market. And here is what we wrote in Gold News Monitor on May the 15th:

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Gold, Silver & US Dollar Updates with Review of Latest COTS / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund looks at gold, silver and the dollar after reviewing the latest COT Charts. Gold's breach of nearby support last week freaked out some longs of a nervous disposition, but it did no technical damage of any significance, as we can see on our latest 3-year shown chart below on which we can observe that it is still above important supporting trendlines. This chart shows that last week's drop was just a "storm in a teacup." Recall that the pattern that has been forming since mid-2016, for nearly two years now, is the Right Shoulder of its giant Head-and-Shoulders bottom that may be viewed on the 8-year chart in the last Gold Market update.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

How Close Are We to Oil Independence? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Rodney_Johnson

Almost two years ago, the Saudis acknowledged they had a problem. The price of oil was too low.

The oil-rich county had fought a surge in supply from American frackers by opening the taps, and the move pushed oil prices to their lowest level in decades.

Even though the Saudis and other OPEC members still held onto market share, they were bleeding cash because their government budgets were modeled on oil closer to $80 than $30.

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Commodities

Monday, May 21, 2018

Gold’s Near-term Downside Target / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The price of gold moved considerably lower in the past several weeks, despite the pause that we saw in the final part of the previous week. The yellow metal moved below $1,300 and confirmed this move by several daily closes below it. Moreover, gold confirmed the breakdown below the rising medium-term support line that’s based on the daily closing prices of December 2016 and December 2017 lows. Consequently, gold’s likely to move lower and the question is how low can gold decline in the near term.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 20, 2018

Looking for a Turn in Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, reflect on market factors that are driving current fluctuations in the gold price.

For nearly four months now, gold has been pressured lower by a rising dollar; the inverse correlation has been almost exact. Gold has dropped 5.2% from its January 25, 2018 close of $1,362 to its May 16 close of $1,291.50. Meanwhile, the US dollar index has risen 5.4% from this year’s low close of 88.50 on February 15, 2018, to its close on May 16 at 93.26. In the past few days, shorts have jumped in to press their luck, judging from the increase in CME open interest while the price is falling.

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