Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, November 26, 2023
A Golden Setup: Gold Price Trend Forecast Report / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: EWI
Hi,
Gold has long been seen as the refuge for investors who are concerned about economic downturns and inflation. And it's tempting to attribute the metal's price movements to factors like supply and demand, the dollar and interest rates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 26, 2023
Gold Stocks Winter Seasonal Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold stocks have mostly ground lower to sideways since spring, leaving this contrarian sector really out of favor again. Yet both the metal and its miners’ stocks are early on in their strongest seasonal rallies of the year. From late October to late February, gold tends to enjoy excellent gains which the gold stocks leverage. Given 2023’s great winter-rally setup, gold’s bullish seasonals should prove potent tailwinds ahead.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks display strong seasonality because their price action amplifies that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Copper/Gold Ratio: Still Counter-Cyclical / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Copper/Gold ratio has been indicating an oncoming counter-cyclical environment since breaking down in June, 2022
Copper: Cyclical, inflation sensitive and a material of positive economic progress.
Gold: Much more counter-cyclical, less inflation sensitive and a ‘liquidity haven’ material of long-term monetary value.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 18, 2023
Silver Price Between a Rock and a Hard Place / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
Caught between conflicting forces, will pivot optimism outweigh the economic malaise that should unfold in the months ahead?
A Short-Lived Rally?
From war premiums to pivot hopes, silver sees sunny skies, as the international and domestic fundamental outlooks increase investors’ enthusiasm , as the international and domestic fundamental outlooks increase investors’ enthusiasm. However, the excitement is misguided, as silver often declines precipitously when recessions arrive. And with an economic downturn poised to bite in 2024, the white metal’s recent rally could be short-lived.For example, the University of Michigan released its Index of Consumer Sentiment on Nov. 10. Director Joanne Hsu said:
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Gold, Silver, Precious Metals Slide Re-starts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As the concern with geopolitics peaked, so did gold price. Silver and mining follow. Are you prepared for the likely outcome?
Gold Peaks and Slides
In my yesterday’s analysis, I wrote the following about gold:
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 04, 2023
Gold Stocks Lagging / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks are lagging gold’s strong young upleg, their gains falling behind. Their striking performance gap is undermining gold-stock sentiment, leaving traders even warier of this sector. While definitely vexing, this anomaly has only arisen over the past couple weeks. Gold stocks’ precedent during past major gold uplegs implies this will unwind soon, with miners surging fast to catch up with their metal.
Gold has been blasting higher on balance for a month now, confirming a new major upleg is underway. While the sparking catalyst was certainly geopolitical, gold’s upside since has been fueled by the normal sequential buying pattern driving all major uplegs. That’s stage-one gold-futures short-covering buying, then larger stage-two gold-futures long buying, then ultimately vast stage-three investment buying returning.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 04, 2023
Gold Holds Firms as World Braces for Financial Turmoil, War / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
As the Federal Reserve puts a hold on interest rates, investors have to ask themselves whether the elevated inflation rate is also on hold.The Fed’s preferred measure of so-called “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, most recently came in at 3.7%. Despite having fallen substantially since last year’s peak, the official inflation rate has yet to approach the Fed’s 2% target.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 03, 2023
Sad Silver Price Lags Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
With the economic backdrop continuing to deteriorate, silver’s bull case has become increasingly fragile.
Ominous Signs Ahead
While silver has bounced off its recent lows, the white metal continues to underperform gold. And when volatile areas of the precious metals market showcase weakness (silver and mining stocks) it’s often an ominous sign for the entire sector.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 28, 2023
Gold Should Heed Mining Socks Warning / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Submissions
While geopolitical conflict has kept gold afloat, mining stocks’ weakness signals trouble ahead.
Economic Recession Looms
While risk assets attempt to break free of their bearish corrections, gold’s relative outperformance has the yellow metal shining bright. Despite that, we’ve booked 11-straight profitable trades, and our 12th (currently open) remains in the green. As a result, our success highlights why mining stocks are often better trading instruments than the yellow metal.
Furthermore, while gold has largely sidestepped the recent risk rout, a recession is bearish for nearly all assets, and gold should suffer mightily if (when) the economic pain unfolds.
For example, S&P Global released its U.S. Composite PMI on Oct. 25. And while the headline results were decent and it outperformed expectations, weakness was present beneath the surface. An excerpt read:
Friday, October 27, 2023
Will Gold Mining Stocks Look Past Q3? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold mining stock charts have not yet confirmed a sustainable rally, and Q3 fundamentals may be a headwind
We have used this daily chart of the gold stock ETF, GDX in written and video updates to keep NFTRH subscribers apprised of the progress of the bounce from the early October low (after previously using the chart to manage the long correction that began with the May double top).
Let’s update the daily technical situation by noting that the GDX rally has halted where it should have halted, as we’ve expected resistance at or below the 200 day moving average (30.49) and/or clear visual resistance at 30. The pullback is in progress and has done a good thing by filling the upper gap as it grinds and tests the 50 day moving average. All normal.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 20, 2023
As Geopolitical Fires Obscure Commodities' Path / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Crisis, crisis everywhere. But objective, free from the noise of the news, forecasting of commodity prices starts here, with our free Special Report ($155 value).
The geopolitical landscape is wracked. War in Ukraine, humanitarian crisis in Syria, and now, what Vox Media on October 15 called the "worst conflict in decades" between Israel and Hamas. For mainstream analysts who use news as the main predictor of price trends, the escalating tensions have "cast a shadow of uncertainty over global financial markets." (Oct. 11 Moneycontrol)
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 08, 2023
Silver Bulls Are the Walking Wounded / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
Silver has been a major underperformer in recent months, as the white metal proved no match for higher real yields and a stronger USD Index.
With silver gunning for its 2023 lows, the recent sell-off has done severe technical damage. And while the weakness has been a boon for our GDXJ ETF short position, silver could enjoy a meaningful bounce in the weeks ahead. Yet, the technicals are much better than the fundamentals at uncovering support and resistance, and our premium Gold Trading Alert has all of those details.
Sunday, October 01, 2023
Gold Market Gyrate on U.S. Government Shutdown Theatrics / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets got hammered earlier this week as interest rates continued their relentless march higher.
The 10-year Treasury note recorded its highest yield since 2007. Meanwhile, the average conventional 30-year mortgage rate surged to 7.31% -- a level not seen since 2000.
Higher rates are putting pressure on housing and financial markets. They are also hitting consumers and small businesses. For now, though, the economy hasn’t entered into a recession – at least not officially.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 24, 2023
Dead Ends Ahead for Silver Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With the fundamental roadblocks adding up, silver confronts a bearish outlook at nearly every turn.
With the FOMC’s hawked-up SEP and Powell’s inflation focus upending several risk assets, rising real interest rates continue to weaken silver’s bull thesis. And with the Fed chief promising more of the same on Sep. 20, higher interest rates and/or a recession are both bullish for the USD Index. Powell said:
“The worst thing we can do is to fail to restore price stability, because the record is clear on that. If you don’t restore price stability, inflation comes back and... you can have a long period where the economy is just very uncertain, and it’ll affect growth. It... can be a miserable period to have inflation come constantly coming back and the Fed coming in and having to tighten again and again.”
Sunday, September 24, 2023
Feds Seek Huge Royalties from Gold Miners in New Crackdown / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: MoneyMetals
Fears of inflation remaining stubbornly high, and interest rates going higher, rattled financial markets this past week.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark funds rate unchanged as expected. However, Fed chairman Jerome Powell left the door open for another hike in the near future. He also suggested rates may need to stay higher for longer than previously expected.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 22, 2023
Gold, Mining Stocks Weather Fed Interest Rates Hike Cycle / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Fed hawkishness has been the rankling thorn in gold’s side for 18 months now. Since the Fed started this monster rate-hike cycle, every material gold and gold-stock selloff has been driven by the threat of more rate hikes. Those boost the US dollar, triggering gold-futures selling. But the Fed’s hawkish spell over traders is waning. Gold and the miners weathered this week’s latest hawkish FOMC meeting pretty well.
The Federal Open Market Committee catapulted its federal-funds rate up an extreme 525 basis points off zero in just 16.3 months into late July! That blasted the FFR to a lofty 22.4-year secular high of 5.38%. And this scorching rate-hike cycle was even more violent internally, with over 4/5ths of it happening in just 9.0 months into mid-December! The Fed has never before hiked so big and fast from such low levels.
The resulting higher US yields ignited a parabolic moonshot in the US dollar. In just 6.0 months into last September, the benchmark US Dollar Index skyrocketed 16.7%! The leveraged gold-futures speculators who dominate gold’s short-term price action closely watch the dollar’s fortunes for their trading cues, and do the opposite. So gold plummeted 20.9% in 6.6 months on heavy and relentless gold-futures dumping!
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Gold Price and Gold Stocks’ Loud Silence / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
What a beautiful nothing! Nothing really happened on the markets on Friday, but due to the context of the previous days’ actions, it was profound.
The thing is that it was a day when markets took a breather and verified their previous moves.
Some price moves are accidental or triggered by geopolitical events. Sometimes, the markets pretty much “have to” move in a certain direction because the only rational thing to do is given the event that is happening. For instance, if a war breaks out in Europe, gold rallies. But it doesn’t mean that it’s going to stay up for long. If the rally was simply reactive and not based on a broader trend, then the rally is going to be invalidated.
Saturday, August 19, 2023
Gold Stock Correction Finally Hits Target / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
The gold stock correction has been in play since GDX/HUI doubled topped in April-May
Gold Stock Correction From a Seasonal View
We begin this article, which updates the gold stock correction, as a platform for providing information requested by two NFTRH subscribers. Below are the recent seasonal tendencies for GDX. I’ve elected to use only the years from 2018 to current in order to keep the graph clean and to show that 2023 is shaping up per the norm in the post-pandemic era.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 19, 2023
An Alien Invasion Will Cause Gold Price To Soar! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
As many of you that follow my public articles likely know, I am an avid reader. And, from time to time, I will choose to read other public articles on various markets.
What truly burns my buns are articles that present market fallacies as the basis for their "analysis." And, sadly, this is all too commonly seen in the metals complex.
So, just the other day, I read an article that called for a major rally in gold primarily due to an expectation of China invading Taiwan. And, to just add a cherry on top, they noted that if that did not cause gold to rally, then it will rally due to it being a safe haven during market volatility/declines, due to inflation, due to the Fed lowering interest rates, due to central bank buying of gold, etc. In other words, they simply threw the kitchen sink of reasons as to why gold is going to rally in their eyes.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 14, 2023
U.S. Mint Bureaucrats Continue to Undermine the Once-Great American Eagle Brand / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are ticking lower this week amid an ongoing summer lull in investor demand.The upshot of soft market conditions for gold and silver is favorable buying opportunities for bargain hunters. Not only are spot prices down, but so are premiums on popular bullion products available through Money Metals.
Read full article... Read full article...