Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Optimal Gold Stocks Macro Evolving / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024

By: Gary_Tanashian

The macro setup for gold stocks is evolving into something that will surprise many after decades of poor fundamentals

I don’t make a habit of pumping the most frustrating stock sector on the planet just for the sake of it. I have made a habit of discussing why, since 2003, the macro market backdrop has been adversarial to gold stocks much more often than not. By extension, internal indicators like the HUI/Gold Ratio have rightly been long-term bearish.

As you can see, the HUI/Gold ratio made a top in 2003 and has been down and flat ever since. Personally, I believe it made a double bottom earlier this year. I don’t believe that because I want to (even though I do want to). I believe it because of macro developments currently in play.

Sunday, June 30, 2024

Gold Mining Stocks Record Quarter / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners will soon report what will almost certainly prove their best quarter ever.  Mostly due to Q2’s record-shattering gold prices, gold miners’ earnings should soar off the charts.  Those will be further boosted by slightly-lower mining costs many of these companies are predicting.  With such incredibly-strong fundamentals, more professional fund managers should soon start investing in this high-potential sector.

Four times a year, publicly-traded companies report quarterly results.  These earnings seasons are very important, illuminating how gold miners are actually faring fundamentally.  That really cuts through the obscuring sentiment fogs often shrouding this sector.  I enjoy learning about companies’ fundamentals, so for 32 quarters in a row I’ve analyzed the latest quarterlies from the top 25 gold stocks in both their leading ETFs.

Those are of course the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF dominated by super-major and major gold miners, and its little-brother GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF which is actually overwhelmingly weighted to mid-tier gold miners despite its name.  Those categories are defined by annual production levels, with super-majors exceeding 2,000k ounces, majors above 1,000k, mid-tiers over 300k, and juniors under that.

Sunday, June 30, 2024

Could Low PCE Inflation Take Gold to the Moon? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The PCE Index statistics were released today, and you might wonder what impact they will have on the price of gold.

Let’s dig in.

One might think that PCE is a critical driver of gold prices (and thus, you might be concerned with what the number is going to be), and there is some truth to it, but looking at how those reports have indeed influenced gold price provides extra context to what might seem obvious.

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Gold Stocks Reloading / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have been grinding lower for a month now, sapping traders’ enthusiasm. But this is par for the gold-summer-doldrums course, what typically happens in June. This sentiment-rebalancing drift is quite bullish for this high-potential sector, reloading it for another strong surge higher. With their probable mid-summer bottoming nearing, traders have a mid-upleg opportunity to add undervalued gold stocks.

Reloading always reminds me of target shooting, which was a fun part of my life growing up. Back then liberals hadn’t demonized guns yet, they were part of the cultural fabric. At my high school, its parking lot was full of kids’ pickups with loaded firearms hanging in their back windows! Most teenagers hunted with their fathers, and some participated in a local trap-shooting league along with my town’s police officers.

Back then ammunition was cheap, making target shooting affordable. You could buy 1000 rounds of 5.56 at many sporting-goods stores for under $100! That made for a fun afternoon of shooting with friends. My favorite targets were eggs. They are small and challenging to hit at range, explode nicely, and don’t need to be cleaned up as they’re biodegradable. Reloading magazines before shooting was the worst part.

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Gold Price Completely Unsurprising Reversal and Next Steps / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Did today’s decline in gold surprise you? It shouldn’t – during Thursday’s rally, gold moved to two resistance lines.

And I sent out a special Alert indicating that this was actually a shorting opportunity. That’s my second position in gold in years, and we closed the previous one (it was a long position) profitably in April this year.

Thursday, June 20, 2024

Bitcoin, Gold, and Copper Paint a Coherent Picture / Commodities / Bitcoin

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Bitcoin was heralded as the new gold. But the “old” gold ultimately managed to move above its 2021 highs, while the “new” gold didn’t.
Gold didn’t disappear; they both coexist, and they both have a strong anti-dollar vibe.

Questioning Bitcoin's Rally

But… Could it be the case that bitcoin’s rally is over? It hasn’t moved to new highs after all, despite halving, which was supposed to ignite a powerful move up. It seemed like a sure bet, as it limits the supply of bitcoins. Instead, it triggered another attempt (!) to move to new highs – one that failed, too.

Thursday, June 20, 2024

Why a Dow Stock Market Peak Will Boost Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Hubert_Moolman

During the Great Depression, both silver (1931) and the Dow (1932) reached a significant low. Both have rallied significantly since then. However, the structure of the rallies was very different.

To date, the Dow has significantly outperformed silver since those lows. The Dow increased 988-fold from the low to the all-time high, whereas silver has only increased 179-fold from the low to the all-time high.

Saturday, June 08, 2024

Gold, Silver and Crypto | How Charts Look Before US Dollar Meltdown / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Hubert_Moolman

The US dollar is on the brink of a major meltdown. This is apparent based on fundamental and technical analysis. Over the last 5 years, the US dollar has sustained some major damage through policy without losing much value against other fiat currencies.

In other words, the market has not yet taken into account the true (debased) state of the US dollar, but it will soon. Since the US dollar is probably the  most significant currency in the world, its meltdown will be devastating for many.

Therefore, it is imperative to find a safe haven during a US dollar meltdown. This is a monetary crisis and should preferably be addressed with monetary alternatives. Gold and silver are the premier monetary assets, so they should be an obvious choice.

Saturday, June 08, 2024

Gold & Silver Get Slammed on Positive Economic Reports / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

Later on in today’s program, we have an important update on Money Metals’ efforts to enact pro-sound money laws across America. Six bills have become law this year, making 2024 the most successful year for our sound money efforts so far. So, stick around for an interview with our own Jp Cortez, coming up after this week’s market update.

Well, gold has been the headline performer in the first half the year – breaking records and commanding attention. But in the second half of 2024, silver may be set to steal the show.

Silver has been quietly outperforming gold since February. Silver prices surged to an 11-year high last month.

The junior monetary metal still has a long way to go in order to reach a new all-time high above $49 an ounce. Even if it doesn’t achieve that feat in 2024, it could still set a new record for a year-end closing price.

Saturday, June 08, 2024

Gold Summer Doldrums / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks suffer their weakest seasonals of the year in early summers.  With traders’ attention normally diverted to vacations and summer fun, interest in and demand for precious metals usually wane.  Without outsized investment demand, gold tends to drift sideways to lower dragging silver and miners’ stocks with it.  Long feared as the summer doldrums, they can offer good buying opportunities.

This doldrums term is very apt for gold’s traditional summer predicament.  It describes a zone surrounding the equator in the world’s oceans.  There hot air is constantly rising, spawning long-lived low-pressure areas.  They are often calm, with little prevailing winds.  History is full of accounts of sailing ships getting trapped in this zone for days or weeks, unable to make headway.  The doldrums were murder on ships’ morale.

Crews had no idea when the winds would pick up again, while they continued burning through their limited stores of food and drink.  Without moving air, the stifling heat and humidity were suffocating on those ships long before air conditioning.  Misery and boredom grew extreme, leading to fights breaking out and occasional mutinies.  Being trapped in the doldrums was viewed with dread, it was a very trying experience.

Friday, June 07, 2024

How Much Gold Is There In the World? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

The quick answer is not much - at least not relatively speaking.

According to the World Gold Council, as of the end of 2023, around 212,582 tons of gold have been mined throughout history. About two-thirds of that amount was dug out of the ground since 1950.

That sounds like a lot of gold, but if you melted down every ounce of gold ever mined and formed it into one block, it would only measure 73 feet on each side.

Friday, May 31, 2024

India Silver Imports Have Already Topped 2023 Total / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

India imported more silver through the first four months of 2024 than it did in the entirety of last year.

Indian silver imports totaled 4,172 tons of silver from January through April. That compares with 455 tons during the same period in 2023.

India imported 3,625 tons of silver last year.

India ranks as the world's number one silver consumer.

Friday, May 31, 2024

Gold Has Done Its Job – Isn’t That Enough? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD HAS DONE ITS JOB

For most of us who understand what gold is (and, what it isn’t), gold continues to perform as reasonably expected. Rather, its price continues to reflect the ongoing loss of purchasing power in the U.S. dollar. Gold, itself, isn’t doing anything at all. (see Not About Gold; All About The Dollar)

Short term nominal profits notwithstanding, gold’s value is the same as it is always. Gold is real money and its value is in its use as money. Gold is a medium of exchange, a measure of value, and a long-term store of value.

Friday, May 31, 2024

Gold Stocks Catching Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

After getting off to a slow start in this upleg, gold miners’ stocks are beginning to catch up with their metal.  Gold stocks lagged dreadfully early on, but are increasingly outperforming in gold’s remarkable breakout surge of recent months.  These mounting gold-stock gains are boosting bullish sentiment, attracting in more traders accelerating the upside.  This virtuous circle of capital inflows still has a long way to run.

If gold stocks can’t leverage gold’s gains, they aren’t worth owning.  While miners have high potential to soar with their metal, they bear big additional risks.  Those include all kinds of operational, geological, regulatory, and geopolitical challenges and problems.  And they are all heaped on top of the biggest risk of all, gold price trends!  Yet that’s the only risk in gold bullion, so miners’ stocks really need to outperform.

If they don’t, speculators and investors are much better off sticking to gold itself.  Historically the leading GDX gold-stock ETF has amplified material gold moves by 2x to 3x.  This range’s lower end is probably the minimum acceptable to compensate traders for gold stocks’ big additional risks.  And the upper end is where this high-flying sector can quickly multiply wealth.  Unfortunately much of gold’s latest upleg saw neither.

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold and silver soared and plunged together, but… Not at the same pace. And this can tell a lot.

Recent Movements and Their Implications

The way in which both precious metals move relative to each other is not random. It has specific rhythms and patterns, and understanding what it means can give one an extra edge over other market participants. Every now and then, the gold-to-silver ratio moves in a specific manner that indicates something important for the following weeks – and that’s exactly what happened.

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: The_Gold_Report

USD index has given back recent gains this morning with bond yields continuing to rise.

Gold (+.2%) and silver (+.77%) are rebounding very slightly but there has occurred some s/t technical damage, especially for gold. Copper (- .2%) and oil (-.08%) are lower, while stock index futures are modestly higher across the board.

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

The mid-tier and junior gold miners in this sector’s sweet spot for upside potential recently wrapped up their latest earnings season.  These fundamentally-superior smaller gold producers delivered big last quarter, reporting spectacular results.  The potent combination of record gold prices, lower mining costs, and better production fueled some of their richest profits ever.  Yet mid-tiers still remain way undervalued.

The leading mid-tier-gold-stock benchmark is the GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF.  With $5.5b in net assets mid-week, it remains the second-largest gold-stock ETF after its big brother GDX.  That is dominated by far-larger major gold miners, though there is much overlap between these ETFs’ holdings.  Still misleadingly named, GDXJ is overwhelmingly a mid-tier gold-stock ETF with juniors having little weighting.

Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold.  Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k.  Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+.  Today only one of GDXJ’s 25 biggest holdings is a true junior!

Thursday, May 23, 2024

All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

All that glitters isn’t gold.

Silver also has quite a shine lately.

While gold has gotten the headlines, silver has had a solid bull run over the last several months. In fact, the white metal has outperformed gold in this gold bull market.

Last week, silver charted an 11 percent gain, cracking $30 an ounce for the first time in over a decade.

Thursday, May 23, 2024

Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

Wall Street is ecstatic after the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit 40,000 for the first time ever. The nominal record makes for plenty of pithy headlines.

The Dow is indeed racing higher in terms of depreciating U.S. fiat dollars. But what about in terms of real money – gold and silver?

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Hubert_Moolman

Over the last 125 years, the silver chart has formed two remarkable, similar patterns. The chart below shows a yearly silver chart (only closing values):