Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, April 29, 2023
Gold Price Erased Its April Rally – What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
April had started with gold at $1,990, then gold moved as high as $2,063.40, and yesterday, it closed at $1,999. At the moment of writing these words, gold futures (because that’s what you see on the above chart) are trading at $1,993.
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Monday, April 10, 2023
Wall Street Cheerleaders Offer Perpetually Changing Arguments against Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
As the gold market marches toward new records, it is proving the naysayers wrong and vindicating longtime bulls.
Gold posted a record high close on a quarterly basis at the end of March. Now the monetary metal has its sights set on setting a new all-time high here in the coming days.
That’ll have to wait until next week though as global markets are closed here on this Good Friday. Gold will finish this week at $2,020 an ounce after advancing 2.1% this week. Silver, meanwhile, gained 3.7% to bring spot prices to $25.30 an ounce.
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Monday, April 03, 2023
Why Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
If the decades old bubble in paper assets is ending, that’s why gold!Various promotions along the way of the Continuum have distilled the case for gold down to handy buzz phrases like “got Gold?” as if it were a carton of milk. Other promotions have presented gold as the go-to asset through all types of macro phases, from “fiat is gonna blow up any day now” to “inflation is gonna eat your future” to “a deflationary Armageddon is on the way”.
Yet all along the Continuum, policymakers papered it over, inflated the mess at every crisis as long as the Continuum allowed.*
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Saturday, April 01, 2023
Crude Oil: Will "Banking Crisis Send Prices Even Lower"? Ha! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
SVB failed in March. Oil was destined to fall as early as February – here’s why;
The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank have prompted a lot of discussion about the potential of a domino effect. People are wondering "what's next?"
The financial press is linking just about every downward price move in just about every financial market to the woes in the banking sector.
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Wednesday, March 29, 2023
China’s Gold Gambit: Outfoxing America on the World Stage? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
By Jon Forrest Little,
Unless you live under a rock (and some days I wish I did), all eyes are on which bank will fail next.
We knew this was coming. Decades of Zero Interest Rate Policy, QE, and risky fractional reserve practices have consequences.
Superpowers like Russia and China are eyeing America’s financial vulnerabilities while the Fed, Congress, Treasury, and Wall Street play musical chairs and trip over each other like Keystone cops.
Wednesday, March 29, 2023
The last time this happened, Gold Price Soared for 10 years / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Submissions
Justin Spittler : 615% gains the last time this was triggered… “This is incredibly bullish”… “Someone big” is loading up… I’m no gold bug, but…
- Gold is closing in on its all-time highs.
On Monday, gold broke above $2,000 per ounce—the highest it’s been in over a year:
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Friday, March 24, 2023
Battle Line Drawn: Gold Bulls Look to Push through $2,000 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
Gold prices surged to test the $2,000/oz level early this week before retreating ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Fed policymakers opted for another 25 basis-point hike -- disappointing investors who had hoped for a pause in the wake of high-profile bank runs.
Stocks sold off in post-Fed trading on Wednesday afternoon. Precious metals markets, however, managed to record gains for the day.
Fed chairman Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank would likely hike one more time.
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Monday, March 06, 2023
Silver’s Subtle Indication / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Namely, while the GDXJ (upper part of the chart) moved only a little above its recent high, silver has pretty much doubled its previous short-term upswing.
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Sunday, February 26, 2023
Gold Price Is ALMOST Ready to Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Enough is enough. No market can decline without correcting every now and then. And both gold and the USDX point to an upcoming reversal.
Let’s start with gold.
Is It Over?
Looking at its price from a short-term point of view, we see that it paused for a brief moment at its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Sunday, February 26, 2023
Oil Price Rises Despite Larger US Crude Stocks. Russian Production Worries / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
The two global crude benchmarks are still enjoying momentum that began on Thursday – despite larger-than-expected US crude inventories – following reports from the financial press that Russia will cut oil exports from its western ports by 25% per month in March compared to February in response to Western sanctions.These claims, however, have not yet been confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Energy.
The western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk export around 2.5 million barrels of crude a day. Therefore, a 25% reduction would imply a reduction in exports of 625,000 barrels per day, or about 0.6% of the world oil supply.
This contraction would thus exceed that announced by the Russian Deputy Prime Minister in charge of Energy, Alexander Novak, earlier in February by 500,000 barrels per day.
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Thursday, February 23, 2023
Gold: What "Colossal" Central Bank Buying May Mean / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: EWI
"Central banks are so confident that gold prices will continue rising that they are..."
Central banks have been scooping up gold with a vengeance.
Here's a Jan. 31 Financial Times headline:
'Colossal' central bank buying drives gold demand to decade high
Interestingly, just a few days later on Feb. 3, the precious metal dropped by more than 2%. But setting aside near-term price moves in gold, what you need to know is that government is nearly always the last to act on a financial trend. In other words, when government acts, a financial trend is either nearly or already over.
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Monday, February 20, 2023
Inflation & Commodities / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Gary_Tanashian
The news is full of articles now discussing how food (Staples) producer prices are going to continue rising, how warehouse and distribution channels are pushing “inflation” higher, how charges to use cargo containers and transportation are all pushing “inflation” higher.
The inflationary acts were committed in 2020 and 2021. The inflation was inflicted then and is now history. What is happening now is a plethora of knock-on effects from the inflation. It’s lagging, sticky and in some cases opportunistic and greedy stuff that is not inflation but instead, the predictable after-effects of it.
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Monday, February 20, 2023
More Headwinds for Commodity Market Bulls / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Donald_W_Dony
Commodity bulls are facing a challenging year ahead.
Some natural resources were benefiting and riding on the coattails of mounting inflationary pressure in 2020 through to mid-2022, such as oil and Natural gas, while others (gold and silver) were still prospering from the low US dollar and near zero Fed interest rates in 2019.
However, conditions started to change for most commodities in mid-2022 (Chart 1).
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Saturday, February 18, 2023
Gold Price REALly Declines and That’s Just the Start / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In all likelihood – yes. Then it’s likely to slide more – much more. With this pace (chart courtesy of GoldPriceForecast.com), gold could move below $1,800 in no time.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2023
Today’s Best Commodity Market Trading Setups / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Hi,
You're invited to a free commodity-trading webinar!
Join Elliott Wave International's Chief Commodity Analyst, Jim Martens, this Thursday, Feb. 9 at 1 p.m. Eastern time for a special, live webinar: Today's Best Commodity Setups.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
And similar trend for the Gold price, also attempting to break out higher off the October - November base that is likely to Gold target a trend to between $2000 and $2100 during 2023 vs the last close of $1804.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Could Silver Price Outperform Gold Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Richard_Mills
Gold sold off following the US Federal Reserve’s Feb. 1 decision to raise interest rates another 25 basis points. The federal funds rate now sits at between 4.50 and 4.75%.
Spot gold at first gained about $20 to $1,956, within $80 of the all-time high of $2,034, reached in August, 2020. The dollar fell Wednesday along with bond yields.
The market’s initial take was that the Fed is nearly finished raising rates. A senior investment strategist from Allianz Investment Management told CNBC that the messaging leaned “slightly dovish”, with the lack of clarity signaling that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate tightening cycle.
After hikes end, Charlie Ripley said the central bank will likely “sit tight while the economic data catches up to the policy.”
“The Fed is essentially speaking out of both sides of the mouth as they signaled further increases are appropriate, but also acknowledged they will consider the cumulative amount of tightening in future policy decisions,” he said.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Silver ‘Sediment’ – Encore For Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Kelsey_Williams
SILVER SEDIMENT
“Sediment is solid material that is moved and deposited in a new location. Sediment can consist of rocks and minerals…” and “matter that settles to the bottom…”
The silver price closed on Friday at $22.30 oz., down $1.15 from its closing price the day before.
What is worse, though, is that it follows a drop of $.50 oz. on Thursday. And, on both Thursday and Friday, the silver price collapsed early in the day, found the bottom level and stayed there.
From its intraday peak on Thursday morning in New York to the closing price Friday, silver declined $2.30 oz., or more than nine percent.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
SILVER CRACKUP BOOM! Price Trend Forecast 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last look at the prospects for SIlver of early May 2022 warned to expect the inflationary crack up boom to eventually make it's way to the precious metals complex - The CRACK UP BOOM! Implications for Stocks, Housing. and Commodities, Silver Potential
Silver is at the opportune level of $22 for long-term accumulation that first targets the top of the range at $28 and then on a breakout higher to ultimately target the previous all time high of $50.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
Gold and Inflation: Here's a Market Myth / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: EWI
"If you believe in Gold as a consumer price inflation hedge then..."Back in the days of the Roman Empire, an ounce of gold could buy a Roman a well-made toga, belt and finely crafted sandals.
In modern day Rome, lo and behold, a businessman can become sharply dressed via the value of that same ounce of gold.
So, yes, gold has maintained its store of value over the centuries.
However, in the relative short term -- which can last years -- gold may not be the inflation hedge that gold bugs believe it to be.
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