Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 20, 2023
More Headwinds for Commodity Market Bulls / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Donald_W_Dony
Commodity bulls are facing a challenging year ahead.
Some natural resources were benefiting and riding on the coattails of mounting inflationary pressure in 2020 through to mid-2022, such as oil and Natural gas, while others (gold and silver) were still prospering from the low US dollar and near zero Fed interest rates in 2019.
However, conditions started to change for most commodities in mid-2022 (Chart 1).
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Saturday, February 18, 2023
Gold Price REALly Declines and That’s Just the Start / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In all likelihood – yes. Then it’s likely to slide more – much more. With this pace (chart courtesy of GoldPriceForecast.com), gold could move below $1,800 in no time.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2023
Today’s Best Commodity Market Trading Setups / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Hi,
You're invited to a free commodity-trading webinar!
Join Elliott Wave International's Chief Commodity Analyst, Jim Martens, this Thursday, Feb. 9 at 1 p.m. Eastern time for a special, live webinar: Today's Best Commodity Setups.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
And similar trend for the Gold price, also attempting to break out higher off the October - November base that is likely to Gold target a trend to between $2000 and $2100 during 2023 vs the last close of $1804.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Could Silver Price Outperform Gold Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Richard_Mills
Gold sold off following the US Federal Reserve’s Feb. 1 decision to raise interest rates another 25 basis points. The federal funds rate now sits at between 4.50 and 4.75%.
Spot gold at first gained about $20 to $1,956, within $80 of the all-time high of $2,034, reached in August, 2020. The dollar fell Wednesday along with bond yields.
The market’s initial take was that the Fed is nearly finished raising rates. A senior investment strategist from Allianz Investment Management told CNBC that the messaging leaned “slightly dovish”, with the lack of clarity signaling that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate tightening cycle.
After hikes end, Charlie Ripley said the central bank will likely “sit tight while the economic data catches up to the policy.”
“The Fed is essentially speaking out of both sides of the mouth as they signaled further increases are appropriate, but also acknowledged they will consider the cumulative amount of tightening in future policy decisions,” he said.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Silver ‘Sediment’ – Encore For Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Kelsey_Williams
SILVER SEDIMENT
“Sediment is solid material that is moved and deposited in a new location. Sediment can consist of rocks and minerals…” and “matter that settles to the bottom…”
The silver price closed on Friday at $22.30 oz., down $1.15 from its closing price the day before.
What is worse, though, is that it follows a drop of $.50 oz. on Thursday. And, on both Thursday and Friday, the silver price collapsed early in the day, found the bottom level and stayed there.
From its intraday peak on Thursday morning in New York to the closing price Friday, silver declined $2.30 oz., or more than nine percent.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
SILVER CRACKUP BOOM! Price Trend Forecast 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last look at the prospects for SIlver of early May 2022 warned to expect the inflationary crack up boom to eventually make it's way to the precious metals complex - The CRACK UP BOOM! Implications for Stocks, Housing. and Commodities, Silver Potential
Silver is at the opportune level of $22 for long-term accumulation that first targets the top of the range at $28 and then on a breakout higher to ultimately target the previous all time high of $50.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
Gold and Inflation: Here's a Market Myth / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: EWI
"If you believe in Gold as a consumer price inflation hedge then..."Back in the days of the Roman Empire, an ounce of gold could buy a Roman a well-made toga, belt and finely crafted sandals.
In modern day Rome, lo and behold, a businessman can become sharply dressed via the value of that same ounce of gold.
So, yes, gold has maintained its store of value over the centuries.
However, in the relative short term -- which can last years -- gold may not be the inflation hedge that gold bugs believe it to be.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
6 Trends to Watch in the CBD Market / Commodities / Cannabis
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
The CBD market is growing rapidly, making it challenging to stay on top of the latest trends. With consumer demand on the rise and more products than ever hitting shelves, it's essential to know what changes and innovations are happening in this exciting industry. In this post, we'll dive into key trends that entrepreneurs, retailers, and customers need to be aware of when navigating the world of CBD. From product diversification to new global regulations, these trends will provide insight into an evolving landscape, allowing you to capitalize on opportunities and make informed decisions about your journey into cannabinoids.
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Friday, January 27, 2023
Natural Gas: Here's What Happened After a "Double Top" / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: EWI
A key technical pattern warns of a reversal
It probably won't be a surprise to you that Elliott Wave International is an advocate of technical analysis. After all, the Elliott wave method is a form of technical analysis.
You probably know that the term "technical analysis" refers to analyzing the behavior of financial markets themselves -- generally by studying charts -- as opposed to "fundamental" analysis, which is based on news and events outside of financial markets.
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Friday, January 27, 2023
Anti-Gold Bias: The Big Secret Wall Street DOESN'T Want You to Know / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
By Stefan Gleason,
Last year was one of the worst on record for a conventional stock and bond portfolio. The major stock and bond market indexes both fell by double digits.
Investors who were diversified into physical precious metals fared much better. While it wasn't a banner year for gold and silver markets, they eked out slight gains – which translated into a massive outperformance versus conventional financial assets.
Unfortunately, conventional financial advice continues to keep most investors 100% allocated to financial assets with zero diversification into hard assets.
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Gold’s Battle to Break the 2011 High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Between 2020 and now, quite a lot happened, quite a lot of money was printed, and we saw a war breaking out in Europe. Yet gold failed to rally to new highs.Gold Had Chances
In fact, it’s trading very close to its 2011 high, which tells you something about the strength of this market. It’s almost absent.
Truth be told, what we see in gold is quite in tune with what we saw after the 2011 top, and in particular, shortly after the 2012 top. We can also spot similarities between now and 2008. The long-term gold price chart below provides details.
Actually, since gold is now practically just where it was a week ago, my Monday’s description of the below gold chart remains up-to-date:
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Friday, January 20, 2023
Gold stocks are not yet unique, but that’s coming / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold stocks have been among the leaders of the Q1 rally, but are not yet unique
It seems that all too often lately the gold mining sector is in tow with commodities in general and broad global stocks in its ups and downs. As a leader, but not THE leader of the rally that is fine for now as long as we’re still on the back end of the originally projected Q4-Q1 rally in broad asset markets.
But if I am correct in the view of a real bull market in gold and especially the miners, at some point this will have to change. Gold miners are counter-cyclical businesses and the fact that their cost inputs like energy, materials and even human resources are rising in cost is not positive. While the fact that gold has been outperforming most of these for the last 3 to 6 months is positive, the real play will begin when investors look at their portfolios, beaten to a pulp, and see only one sector (or one of a very few sectors) rising while a bear market resumes in cyclical, risk ‘on’ assets.
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Friday, January 20, 2023
Biden Officials Float $1 Trillion Platinum Coin Scheme to Monetize Debt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
By Mike Gleason:
As global elites gathered in Davos this week to discuss their plans for controlling the world economy, the gold market is delivering an alternative message.
Among the issues being discussed at this year's World Economic Forum is that of central bank digital currency. A presentation at the meeting based on research funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation called for central bank digital currency to serve the goal of "redesigning access to money."
Technocrats believe that they can reshape the world economy to serve their grandiose objectives -- whether it's redistributing wealth or eliminating fossil fuels or reducing the world population.
Thursday, January 19, 2023
Gold Price Is Up $300 Since November – So What?! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD HEADLINES – UP $300
Advisors and marketers are ecstatic:…
“Nothing will be able to stop gold when it breaks to a new all-time high” or “On the cusp of a breakout where gold can go up to $5000” are two examples of recent exclamations about prospects for higher gold prices. The euphoria can be contagious.
I’m sure that makes gold bulls feel optimistic. After all, they have been passengers on an amusement ride that wasn’t what they expected. After being strapped in for a rocket launch, they found themselves on a roller coaster that was in the midst of a downward descent.
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Thursday, January 19, 2023
Why Oil Prices Fell in the Face of "Supply Shock" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
"Crude should be at the forefront of a..."Looking back on 2022, one of the biggest fears about oil was that prices would skyrocket even more than they did due to a disruption in supply from Russia.
Of course, Russia has been a major world supplier of oil, but after Russia invaded Ukraine, many global financial institutions refused to back transactions involving Russian oil.
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Monday, January 16, 2023
Copper and Gold miners are leading the Q4-Q1 rally in broad asset markets / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Gary_Tanashian
Back in October we began to plan the prospect of a relief rally that would be fueled by over-bearish sentiment (contrary bullish), ‘Fed hawk’ relief as we anticipated inflation signals to ease, and a post (mid-term) election seasonal pattern that is bullish for stocks. This public article had a lot to say about that on November 10th:
For the purposes of this week’s public article, we’ll leave aside the mad science (macro indicators) that NFTRH subscribers were subjected to in support of the bull thesis along the way and also leave aside the individual equities and portfolio strategy shaped by the indicators. But the macro stuff is going to be ever more important going forward. These indicators are, shall we say, absolutely fascinating in their guidance for the balance of 2023.
Here we simplify and just look at two broad market leaders. Copper and gold, copper miners and gold miners. While I am bullish on gold and by extension very bullish on the gold miners, which will fundamentally leverage the 2023 macro, to this point the Q1, 2023 rally is as expected and it literally includes the world.
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Saturday, January 14, 2023
Gold Buying Only Starting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has powered higher smartly over the past couple months, achieving big gains. But this gold buying is only starting, implying this young upleg still has a long way to run yet. Speculators’ gold-futures buying remains modest, while much-larger identifiable investment buying hasn’t even begun. Traders will have to increasingly chase gold’s upside momentum to restore normal portfolio allocations, really amplifying its gains.
Gold has been on a tear lately, blasting higher to major technical breakouts. Between late September to midweek, the yellow metal surged up 15.7% in 3.5 months! Nearly all those big gains accrued since early November alone, when gold carved a deep double-bottom. During this young upleg’s rapid ascent, gold shattered its downtrend resistance and 200-day moving average. Now it is flashing a potent buy signal.
A powerful Golden Cross is occurring in gold, with its 50dma crossing back above its 200dma from below! This is one of the most-effective and most-bullish indicators in all of technical analysis, arguing this young gold upleg is only getting started. More importantly, gold’s supply-and-demand fundamentals align with and corroborate this rosy outlook. Impressively the great majority of usual gold-upleg-driving buying remains!
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Monday, January 09, 2023
Gold’s Nasty Divorce / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Kelsey_Williams
Gold’s nasty divorce from the U.S. dollar was finalized in August 1971 when President Richard Nixon suspended any further convertibility of U.S. dollars into gold by non-U.S. citizens. That action removed any remaining links between the dollar and gold.
Without convertibility, any official price for gold became meaningless. At that time, the official U.S. dollar price of gold was raised from $40.00 oz to $42.50; but nobody paid much attention.
The U.S. dollar price of gold began a decade-long march that saw a twenty-fold increase culminating in an intra-day high of $843 oz. in January 1980. Gold had finally broken free of its tether.
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Sunday, January 08, 2023
Will Gold Manage to Break Above Its Mid-2022 Top? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold started this year with a quick rally, but it was mostly erased. It’s still above its mid-2022 high, but will it stay there for much longer?
Is It All Bearish?