Category: Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, November 26, 2023
Gold Stocks Winter Seasonal Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold stocks have mostly ground lower to sideways since spring, leaving this contrarian sector really out of favor again. Yet both the metal and its miners’ stocks are early on in their strongest seasonal rallies of the year. From late October to late February, gold tends to enjoy excellent gains which the gold stocks leverage. Given 2023’s great winter-rally setup, gold’s bullish seasonals should prove potent tailwinds ahead.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks display strong seasonality because their price action amplifies that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
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Saturday, November 04, 2023
Gold Stocks Lagging / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks are lagging gold’s strong young upleg, their gains falling behind. Their striking performance gap is undermining gold-stock sentiment, leaving traders even warier of this sector. While definitely vexing, this anomaly has only arisen over the past couple weeks. Gold stocks’ precedent during past major gold uplegs implies this will unwind soon, with miners surging fast to catch up with their metal.
Gold has been blasting higher on balance for a month now, confirming a new major upleg is underway. While the sparking catalyst was certainly geopolitical, gold’s upside since has been fueled by the normal sequential buying pattern driving all major uplegs. That’s stage-one gold-futures short-covering buying, then larger stage-two gold-futures long buying, then ultimately vast stage-three investment buying returning.
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Saturday, October 28, 2023
Gold Should Heed Mining Socks Warning / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Submissions
While geopolitical conflict has kept gold afloat, mining stocks’ weakness signals trouble ahead.
Economic Recession Looms
While risk assets attempt to break free of their bearish corrections, gold’s relative outperformance has the yellow metal shining bright. Despite that, we’ve booked 11-straight profitable trades, and our 12th (currently open) remains in the green. As a result, our success highlights why mining stocks are often better trading instruments than the yellow metal.
Furthermore, while gold has largely sidestepped the recent risk rout, a recession is bearish for nearly all assets, and gold should suffer mightily if (when) the economic pain unfolds.
For example, S&P Global released its U.S. Composite PMI on Oct. 25. And while the headline results were decent and it outperformed expectations, weakness was present beneath the surface. An excerpt read:
Friday, October 27, 2023
Will Gold Mining Stocks Look Past Q3? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold mining stock charts have not yet confirmed a sustainable rally, and Q3 fundamentals may be a headwind
We have used this daily chart of the gold stock ETF, GDX in written and video updates to keep NFTRH subscribers apprised of the progress of the bounce from the early October low (after previously using the chart to manage the long correction that began with the May double top).
Let’s update the daily technical situation by noting that the GDX rally has halted where it should have halted, as we’ve expected resistance at or below the 200 day moving average (30.49) and/or clear visual resistance at 30. The pullback is in progress and has done a good thing by filling the upper gap as it grinds and tests the 50 day moving average. All normal.
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Sunday, September 24, 2023
Feds Seek Huge Royalties from Gold Miners in New Crackdown / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: MoneyMetals
Fears of inflation remaining stubbornly high, and interest rates going higher, rattled financial markets this past week.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark funds rate unchanged as expected. However, Fed chairman Jerome Powell left the door open for another hike in the near future. He also suggested rates may need to stay higher for longer than previously expected.
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Friday, September 22, 2023
Gold, Mining Stocks Weather Fed Interest Rates Hike Cycle / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Fed hawkishness has been the rankling thorn in gold’s side for 18 months now. Since the Fed started this monster rate-hike cycle, every material gold and gold-stock selloff has been driven by the threat of more rate hikes. Those boost the US dollar, triggering gold-futures selling. But the Fed’s hawkish spell over traders is waning. Gold and the miners weathered this week’s latest hawkish FOMC meeting pretty well.
The Federal Open Market Committee catapulted its federal-funds rate up an extreme 525 basis points off zero in just 16.3 months into late July! That blasted the FFR to a lofty 22.4-year secular high of 5.38%. And this scorching rate-hike cycle was even more violent internally, with over 4/5ths of it happening in just 9.0 months into mid-December! The Fed has never before hiked so big and fast from such low levels.
The resulting higher US yields ignited a parabolic moonshot in the US dollar. In just 6.0 months into last September, the benchmark US Dollar Index skyrocketed 16.7%! The leveraged gold-futures speculators who dominate gold’s short-term price action closely watch the dollar’s fortunes for their trading cues, and do the opposite. So gold plummeted 20.9% in 6.6 months on heavy and relentless gold-futures dumping!
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
Gold Stock Correction Finally Hits Target / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
The gold stock correction has been in play since GDX/HUI doubled topped in April-May
Gold Stock Correction From a Seasonal View
We begin this article, which updates the gold stock correction, as a platform for providing information requested by two NFTRH subscribers. Below are the recent seasonal tendencies for GDX. I’ve elected to use only the years from 2018 to current in order to keep the graph clean and to show that 2023 is shaping up per the norm in the post-pandemic era.
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Monday, July 24, 2023
Gold Stocks Technical Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold-stock technicals are dramatically improving, turning increasingly bullish. After slumping to major support zones in the summer doldrums, the gold miners’ stocks have surged sharply in the past couple weeks. That strong advance has achieved a decisive breakout above the main gold-stock benchmark’s key 50-day moving average. Similar breakouts in recent years have heralded imminent big sector rallies.
Gold-stock price action has been really interesting lately, so I’ve written several recent essays analyzing it. Between late September to mid-April, the leading GDX gold-stock ETF powered 63.9% higher in 6.5 months. That amplified gold’s underlying parallel 25.7% upleg by 2.5x, right in the middle of the major gold stocks’ usual leverage range of 2x to 3x. Then gold rolled over into a healthy pullback in early May.
GDX closed just shy of a new upleg high on May 4th, the day gold hit its own latest of $2,050. But with gold getting seriously overbought and greed growing excessive, the yellow metal reversed to work off both conditions. So over the next 1.8 months into late June, gold pulled back 6.9% to $1,908. That perfectly-normal mid-upleg selloff was right in line with February’s 7.2% pullback, and restored sentiment balance.
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Wednesday, March 29, 2023
The last time this happened, Gold Price Soared for 10 years / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Submissions
Justin Spittler : 615% gains the last time this was triggered… “This is incredibly bullish”… “Someone big” is loading up… I’m no gold bug, but…
- Gold is closing in on its all-time highs.
On Monday, gold broke above $2,000 per ounce—the highest it’s been in over a year:
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Friday, January 20, 2023
Gold stocks are not yet unique, but that’s coming / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold stocks have been among the leaders of the Q1 rally, but are not yet unique
It seems that all too often lately the gold mining sector is in tow with commodities in general and broad global stocks in its ups and downs. As a leader, but not THE leader of the rally that is fine for now as long as we’re still on the back end of the originally projected Q4-Q1 rally in broad asset markets.
But if I am correct in the view of a real bull market in gold and especially the miners, at some point this will have to change. Gold miners are counter-cyclical businesses and the fact that their cost inputs like energy, materials and even human resources are rising in cost is not positive. While the fact that gold has been outperforming most of these for the last 3 to 6 months is positive, the real play will begin when investors look at their portfolios, beaten to a pulp, and see only one sector (or one of a very few sectors) rising while a bear market resumes in cyclical, risk ‘on’ assets.
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