Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, May 19, 2024
Could We See $27,000 Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Could we see $27,000 gold?
That seems far-fetched but financial analyst and investment banker Jim Rickards makes the case that it could happen.
Gold charted a big rally in recent months, hitting a new all-time high of over $2,400 an ounce last month. Even with the higher prices, gold demand has remained robust. Central banks globally are adding gold to their reserves, as have investors, particularly in the East.
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Sunday, May 19, 2024
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The major gold miners just wrapped up another quarterly earnings season, reporting great results. Sector unit profits continued blasting higher on stable production, lower mining costs, and record prevailing gold prices. Yet individually plenty of majors still struggled with rising expenses or lower output. So deploying capital in miners to leverage gold’s remarkable breakout requires handpicking fundamentally-superior stocks.
The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s dominant benchmark. Birthed way back in May 2006, GDX has parlayed its first-mover advantage into an insurmountable lead. Its $13.9b of net assets mid-week dwarfed the next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF by nearly 28x! GDX is undisputedly the trading vehicle of choice in this sector, with the world’s biggest gold miners commanding most of its weighting.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Those two largest categories account for fully half of GDX.
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Sunday, May 19, 2024
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Over the last couple of months, gold has scaled record highs, peaking at over $2,430 an ounce before correcting and settling in the $2,300 range.
That's a healthy gain. But you could argue that gold remains significantly underpriced given the inflation we've experienced that continues to rapidly devalue the dollar.
That leaves many people wondering when gold is really going to break out.
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Thursday, May 09, 2024
Could Chinese Gold Be the Straw That Breaks the Dollar's Back? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
There are cracks in the foundation of dollar dominance. Could Chinese gold be the straw that breaks the dollar’s back?
In a column published by the Telegraph, economist Julian Jessop points out that people have been predicting the dollar's demise for decades. Eventually, they'll be right.
“And that day may be drawing much closer.”
It may seem premature to talk about the demise of the dollar. Based on the dollar index, the greenback is stronger than ever. But this doesn’t necessarily reflect the greatness of the dollar. It’s more a function of weakness in other global currencies. As the saying goes, the dollar is the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry.
Wednesday, May 08, 2024
Copper: The India Factor / Commodities / Copper
By: The_Energy_Report
Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares how India's copper demand may impact the metal's price. Ballanger also reviews the gold and silver market, and shares one company he thinks might have a VMS project.
As I was doing some research this week on the history of copper demand, what started as a focus on China wound up with some interesting revelations surrounding the economic history of neighboring India. Despite going to high school with a number of classmates who had immigrated from India, I never actually took the time to understand the rich history of India, largely because the narrative was always centered around the British Raj and how colonialism saved the poor savages from a grim future.
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Wednesday, May 08, 2024
Gold 2008 and 2022 All Over Again? Stocks, USDX / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Can the HUGE price move from those years really be repeated?
Analogous Situations: 2008, 2022, and Now
As gold continues to move back and forth in the same trading range, I decided to dedicate today’s analysis to something different. After all, I already described my current gold price forecast for May 2024 and the situation in the forex market remains just as I had described it earlier.
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Monday, April 29, 2024
Inflation Still Runs Hot, Gold and Silver Prices Stabilize / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
As economic data comes in worse than expected, investor uncertainty is rattling markets.
On Thursday, the Commerce Department released its estimate of Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter. GDP growth came in at a disappointing 1.6% -- well short of the 2.3% consensus forecast.
Stocks sold off on the news. But gold and silver markets bounced modestly off their lows from earlier in the week.
Monday, April 29, 2024
GOLD, OIL and WHEAT STOCKS / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Kelsey_Williams
Financially speaking, the markets have been all over the map in the past four years since the onset of Covid and the self-inflicted wounds from forced economic shutdown. I went back to August 2020, five months after the festivities began, and pulled up some charts which show the price action since then for gold (money), wheat (food), crude oil (energy), and stocks (S&P 500). I will make some comments after each chart and provide observations at the end of the article. We’ll start with gold…
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Monday, April 08, 2024
Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Another week, another record high for gold.
On Wednesday, the monetary metal surged above $2,300 per ounce. It took a bit of a breather Thursday ahead of today’s key employment report but it rallied again on Friday.
Turning to silver, it made a significant breakout of its own this week. The white metal shot up above the $27 level to a fresh 2-year high and rallied to over $27.50 on Friday
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Sunday, April 07, 2024
It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Gary_Tanashian
On the occasion of another standout payrolls report, we note that the macro is indeed changing beneath the surface
Another payrolls report, another beat of expectations. Here is the breakdown of the details as posted earlier. However, let’s pluck one graphic from that post and illustrate a phenomenon I’ve been watching unfold for several months in a row; that of unabated government hiring this election year.
The USS Good Ship Lollipop sails along, supported by its vast services economy and construction (a product of the services industries, not a productive industry itself, unlike for example, manufacturing) as well as a continued trend of brisk government hiring this election year. I am not going to play politics (I am dispirited by both major parties) but as usual, I am going to lay out facts so that we can properly manage the situation from an investment perspective.
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Sunday, April 07, 2024
What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD PRICE IF THE FED DOESN’T CUT
With the increasing gold price of late comes the assumption that the expected cut in interest rates will open a torrent of cheap money that will bring the U.S. dollar down with a thud. But, what would happen to the gold price if the Fed doesn’t cut interest rates?
What seemed like a universally expected event may not be as likely as some have assumed. In fact, the Fed has a history that includes examples of pivots and re-pivots; or, ignoring the presumed pivot and staying the course.
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Monday, March 11, 2024
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Clif_Droke
Of the many factors that determine gold price trends, the long-term cycle of inflation and deflation is of singular importance. The cycle in question corresponds closely to the 50-to-60-year economic periodicity known as the Kondratieff Wave (or K-Wave), but is in fact a separate cycle. As we’ll discuss here, the cycle tells us to expect a gradual acceleration of inflationary pressures between now and the year 2029, with particular significance for gold investors.
The K-Wave was brought to renown in the 1920s by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff and is widely regarded as the predominant economic super cycle. This cycle arguably represents the most casual approach to identifying the real supply/demand conditions of any free market economy and is especially applicable to the United States. (Cycle analysts have even identified this cycle as existing as far back as thousands of years ago in Assyria and the Roman Empire.)
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
This week investors are witnessing a historic move in gold prices. The precious metal finally broke above a longstanding overhead resistance level to reach new all-time highs.
On Thursday, gold closed at $2,170 per ounce – its highest level since…well, since records have been kept.
As of this Friday recording, gold checks in at $2,203 an ounce on the heels of a 5.2% advance on the week – its best week in nearly six months. Silver shows a weekly gain of 5.9% to bring spot prices to $24.70 an ounce. Platinum is up 3.0% to trade at $926. And finally, palladium is putting in a 6.7% gain this week to come in at $1,061 per ounce.
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Submissions
When you’re considering investing in precious metals, you are confronted with many options. Silver or gold? Bars or coins? And what in the world is an ETF?
Understanding the differences between an ETF and physical gold and silver is an important first step in the journey to precious metals investing.
ETF is an acronym for “Exchange Traded Fund.” In simplest terms, an ETF represents a basket of investments that trades on the market as a single entity. An ETF could represent just one commodity, such as oil, or it could hold a wide range of assets such as tech stocks. The mix of securities that can potentially be held in an ETF is limited only by your imagination.
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
GDXJ declined once again yesterday, but the situation in silver juniors is even worse!
Silver Juniors in Trouble
Yes, it is possible for a market to be in an even worse position than gold junior mining stocks – that’s the case with silver juniors.
To be precise, the GDXJ aims to be exposed to about 80% gold juniors and 20% of silver juniors, but the SILJ ETF aims to be exposed to just silver miners, with the focus on junior miners.
Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Clive_Maund
I haven't written much about gold in the recent past — since the failed breakout attempt early in December — simply because I haven't known what to make of it, and that indecisiveness has been reflected in the market itself, where we have seen gold stuck in a fairly narrow trading range, but now things are starting to become a lot clearer both fundamentally and technically, and as we will proceed to see, it's not a pretty picture.
On gold's latest 6-month chart, we can see the trading range that has built out since early December, and it is now becoming clear that the pattern that has formed is a Head-and-Shoulders top that also has the characteristics of a Double or Triple Top or a Symmetrical Triangle and right now it is on the point of backing off from the Right Shoulder peak of the pattern.
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Monday, February 05, 2024
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The situation in gold and gold stocks is not stagnant. Something shifted. And the implications are not minor.
A Moment of Realization
In 1993, Aerosmith released the song called “Amazing”. I really enjoyed it when it came out and some of the lyrics stuck in my mind. When I was reviewing the charts to prepare today’s analysis, I recalled a part of that song. I wasn’t sure why, as it’s been sometime when I was listening to it.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold price rallied this week, and this got many heads turning. Rightfully so?
Let’s check the details and see what really happened.
Having said that, let’s take a look at gold’s rally.
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Saturday, January 27, 2024
BP Oil Stock Bullish Formation and Its Consequences / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: Submissions
The combination of supports and a candlestick formation encouraged the bulls to fight.How high could stock go?
Last week turned out to be a breakthrough for the bulls. They managed to maintain important support, which attracted buyers to the trading floor and resulted in further positive technical changes. How high can the bulls climb in the following days? You will find the answer to this question in the article below. Have a nice read.
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Saturday, January 27, 2024
Gold:Silver Ratio Signals Silver on Sale / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Silver is underpriced.
In other words, silver is on sale.
The current gold-to-silver ratio reveals this.
This ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. Or to put it another way, the gold:silver ratio tells you the price of gold in silver.
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