Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, December 15, 2019

Gold Stocks Vs Gold – Not A Good Bet / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Earlier this year,  various gold stock indices (XAU, HUI, GDX) gained more than fifty percent in just three months. Most of the negativity associated with the sector was brushed aside and replaced by positive expectations for the future.

Of course, the 90-day rush to this year’s highs did not occur in a vacuum. The price of gold rose by twenty percent over the same three-month period. The mining shares, however were considerably stronger.

Going back to the fall of 2018, the price of gold increased by thirty percent and gold mining shares increased by about sixty-five percent. The resulting differential of more than 2-to-1 in favor of the mining shares lends possible credence to the argument for shares over bullion.

Sunday, December 15, 2019

Silver Price Remains in 'Corrective Downtrend' / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts the longer term picture for silver.

Like gold, silver has been in a corrective downtrend following its peak early in September, and it looks like it has further to run before its done, partly of course because we have a downside target for gold in the $1360–$1400 area before it turns up.

On the 6-month month we can see how it has been stumbling lower within a downtrend and it looks like it will break down through the lower boundary of this downtrend to drop to a final downside target probably at support in the $15.30–$15.60 area. It outperformed gold during the summer run up and has underperformed on the subsequent reaction, which is normal, and as we know, silver is weaker than gold during the early stages of a bull market, so this near-term downside target seems reasonable.

Friday, December 13, 2019

Beware Gold Stocks Downside / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have largely been consolidating high following last summer’s powerful upleg.  That resilience has left sentiment relatively bullish, with traders mostly expecting this sector to soon start surging again.  But the jury is still out on whether gold stocks will be lucky enough to evade a bigger correction.  Major downside risks still abound, primarily in gold which dominates gold-stock price trends.

The reversal in gold-stock fortunes this year has been radical.  This is readily evident in their leading benchmark, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Comprised of the world’s largest gold miners, GDX is this sector’s most-popular trading vehicle.  The gold miners weren’t faring well for most of the first half of 2019, with GDX down 4.4% year-to-date in early May.  Traders wanted nothing to do with gold stocks.

That sector slump reflected a lack of enthusiasm for gold, which was down 0.9% YTD.  The gold stocks are effectively leveraged plays on gold, as their earnings really amplify changes in prevailing gold levels.  But as May ended, some surprising news started sparking life back into the moribund gold realm.  Trump threatened to impose big tariffs on Mexico until it stopped illegal immigration across the US southern border.

Friday, December 13, 2019

Fed Says No Interest Rate Hikes In 2020. What About Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed kept the interest rates unchanged in December. The statement was rather hawkish, while the dot-plot rather dovish. What does such a mix imply for the yellow metal?

Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged

Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on December 10-11th. In line with expectations, the U.S. central bank left the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.50 to 1.75 percent:

Thursday, December 12, 2019

Silver Miners Pinpoint the Precious Metals’ Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Very little happened in the precious metals market both yesterday and in today’s pre-market trading – at least so far. We will take this opportunity to discuss something that we haven’t done in a while – silver stocks. To be clear, we’re not going to discuss the silver mining stock selection, as that’s something our proprietary algorithms do on a daily basis. And yes, during the recent long trade, the gain on the individual gold and silver miners was bigger than the one from the GDX ETF.

Instead, we’re going to take a look at this sector’s performance and compare it to one very similar case from the past. Yes, just one, which may not looks like an appropriate base for drawing conclusions, but the level of similarity makes it definitely relevant to the current situation. So, without further ado, let’s take a closer look at the SIL ETF – the proxy for silver miners.

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Gold ETF Holdings Surge… But Do They Actually Hold Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Gold-linked exchange-traded products are growing in popularity with investors. Assets held by gold ETFs have grown 38% globally in 2019.
In October, according to the World Gold Council, gold ETFs attracted $1.9 billion in net inflows to reach a new record high total gold holding of 2,900 tonnes – at least on paper.

There is good reason to be skeptical of whether all these “gold” vehicles actually hold physical metal sufficient to back their market capitalizations on a 1:1 basis. Some of them very well might; others almost certainly don’t.

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Gold, Silver Reversals, Lower Prices and Our Precious Profits / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold, silver, and mining stocks reversed practically exactly at their double triangle reversal point and the short positions that we opened along with taking profits off the table from the previous long positions, became profitable almost instantly. There’s quite a decline to catch here, and it seems that only a small part thereof had already taken place.

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF / Commodities / Lumber

By: Chris_Vermeulen

WOOD, one of the Ishares ETF symbols related to the Real Estate and Construction sectors may become the next hottest instrument for skilled technical traders.  Over the past three years, Wood has rallied over 110% between a $40 to $84 range and the trading volume of WOOD has been relatively consistent near an average of about 140k shares per week.  Let’s dig into the opportunities that may present themselves over the next 6 to 12+ months in WOOD.

First, you can get more information about this iShares ETF here.

Second, the WOOD ETF is relatively closely correlated to the US Real Estate and Construction sectors. Thus, when economic data is announced that supports growing Real Estate and Construction activity, traders can easily translate that into forward expectations in price in the WOOD ETF.  For the purposed of this article, we’ll stick with a simple example of New Private Housing Unit Building Permits data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

Monday, December 09, 2019

Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MarketsToday

• Technical analysis update for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD).
• Long-term bullish continuation anticipated once current correction is completed.
• Looks like a deeper retracement may come in the near-term, before resumption of the rally.

Sunday, December 08, 2019

Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back our good friend Greg Weldon, CEO and president of Weldon Financial. Greg has decades of market research and trading experience specializing in the metals and commodity markets and even authored a book back in 2016 titled Gold Trading Boot Camp where he accurately predicted the implosion of the US credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce.

He's made a lot of great calls right here on this podcast this year and it's great to have him back on with us. Greg, thanks for the time again and welcome. How are you?

Greg Weldon: I'm great, Mike. My pleasure, anytime. You do a great job, so I'm always happy to contribute.

Mike Gleason: Well, it's great to get people like you on as frequently as we have. We're very fortunate, so thank you. Well, Greg as we're talking here on Wednesday afternoon, the stock markets sold off yesterday and we got a rally in metals, this morning is as if by magic in the equity markets are levitating and metals are being sold.

Sunday, December 08, 2019

High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Technical Analysis is the theory that price relates all news, fundamental and correlative future expectations into current and recent price activity.  It is the theory that price is the ultimate indicator and that charts paint a very clear picture for those individuals that are capable of understanding the message that is being presented. 

In this research article, we are going to highlight the technical analysis components that we believe are painting a very clear picture that an “early warning” signal is flashing very brightly in the US and Global markets right now.

Sunday, December 08, 2019

Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

We all know that the gold and silver Commitments of Traders are very extended and at levels of commercial net shorts and large spec net longs that tend to be in place at tops in the metals. Well, the metals topped in the summer, so what does that tell us?

For one thing it tells us that bull market rules are different from bear market rules as per this post from August as gold was topping.

Gold and Silver Commitments of Traders for This Week

Listen sports fans, I just call ’em as I see ’em. The Commitments of Traders for gold is as extended as it has been lately and open interest is significant. Speculators are all-in here and while we note that bull market rules are different than bear market rules, extended is extended. Gold is vulnerable to pullback by this measure, especially since the gold price is in the target zone we laid out months ago.

Friday, December 06, 2019

You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

A few weeks ago we noted the bullish setup for 2020.

Macro developments, one way or another will tend to favor Gold. There isn’t a realistic scenario that isn’t Gold bullish.

Note the comments from various Fed-heads last week. They are laying the groundwork to target higher than 2% inflation and won’t consider raising rates anytime soon.

And if they have to resume cutting rates Gold will obviously move higher.  

On the technical side, GDX and GDXJ are in solid uptrends and trading within huge long-term bases.

Friday, December 06, 2019

How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? / Commodities / Environmental Issues

By: OilPrice_Com

You may think (or hope) that in your daily life you don’t need to worry about unknowingly eating or otherwise ingesting crude oil or any of its many, many petrochemical byproducts. But you would be wrong. And not just a little wrong--very, very wrong. Petroleum-based substances are in all kinds of innocuous-seeming things that we willingly put into our bodies. Even though petrochemicals are not technically (or really any other adverb you want to insert here) edible, we eat quite a lot of them.

Friday, December 06, 2019

Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Submissions

Gold prices pushed sharply higher on Tuesday but have stalled ever since. Has the recovery rally completed? I think it has.

Leave it to Trump to go and say something that causes the equity markets to print a two-day drop that wipes out more than a week of gains. But the tone in the markets might be changing.

The US president went from saying that the trade deal might get delayed until after the elections on Tuesday to saying that talks with China are going “very well” on Wednesday. His shift in tone carried through the markets with the S&P 500 recovering and posting on a bullish engulfing candle on a daily chart yesterday.

Friday, December 06, 2019

Precious Metals Ratio Charts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

I can remember there were times during the PM complex bull market before 2011 that sometimes the PM metals would rally but the PM stocks were very weak. Then there were times when the PM stock would rise while the PM metals moved very little. At the time of those occurrences it was bewildering as common sense suggested they should all move together and the stronger the metals moved so should the PM stocks. I don’t have a good answer for the bifurcation at times only that it can happen.

This first chart for tonight is the old ratio combo chart which has the Gold:XAU ratio on top with the XAU on the bottom. When the ratio is rising gold is outperforming the XAU. Going all the way back to 1996 you can see that gold outperformed the XAU in parabolic fashion until the top in January of 2016 which lasted about 20 years. When that 20 year parabolic arc gave way in early 2016 that broke the back of gold outperforming the XAU.

Thursday, December 05, 2019

Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Through the first half of 2019, silver significantly underperformed gold. Put another way, gold gained relative to silver – culminating in the gold:silver ratio registering a 27-year high of 95:1.

That market signal was received by the mining industry. Since there are few primary silver producers, and those that do mine silver also typically mine gold and some base metals, precious metals miners had an incentive to invest more into gold production and less into silver.

Precious metals analyst Adam Hamilton wrote in a recent commentary, “As silver wasted away in recent years, its bombed-out prices heavily impaired silver mines’ ability to generate operating cash flows and profits. The silver miners were forced to adapt and shifted their focus and capital into adding gold production rather than boosting silver output.”

Thursday, December 05, 2019

Manufacturing Goes Deeper Into Recession, Yet Gold Remains Muted. Why? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The ISM Manufacturing index fell 0.2 point to a reading of 48.1 in November. However, gold struggles to find momentum. What is going on exactly?

U.S. Manufacturing Sector Slumps Further

The Institute for Supply Management announced that its index of national factory activity dropped from 48.3 in October to 48.1 last month. The number was below expectations and it also remained below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction – shrinking for the fourth straight month. In other words, the manufacturing sector is still in recession.

Thursday, December 05, 2019

Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

When gold’s price reached $850 per ounce in January 1980, it seemed as if nothing would stop the runaway train that was headed straight for $1000 per ounce. But it was stopped, and began sliding downhill quickly.

By June 1982, two and one-half years later, gold’s price had declined by sixty-five percent. At close to $300 per ounce, the price of gold seemed farther away from the $1000 mark than ever before.

At $300 per ounce, the eventual low for gold of $250 was a short distance away. But that downside price did not come until seventeen years later, in late 1999. As far as $1000 gold is concerned, that did not occur until September 2009, almost thirty years after gold peaked at $850 in January 1980.

Thursday, December 05, 2019

7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research and predictive modeling systems have nailed Gold over the past 15+ months.  We expected Gold to rally above $1750 before the end of this year, but the global trade wars and news cycles stalled the rally in Gold over the past 2 months.  Now, it appears Gold is poised for another rally pushing much higher.

But wait, if you’re thinking I’m just another one of those traders who is always bullish on gold, just know I have been telling the truth about where gold was headed (lower) for years, but finally, the tide has changed!

Gold broke down from a bull market in 2012/2013 – nearly 7 years ago.  Now, Gold has broken resistance near $1375 and is technically in a full-fledged Bull Market.  The importance of this is the 7-year cycle and how the rotation in Gold, between the high near $1923 and the low near $1045 represent an $878 price range.  The upside (expansion) rally in Gold may very well move in expanding Fibonacci price structures – just like it did in 2005 through 2012.  If this is the case, then we may expect to see an ultimate peak price in Gold well above $3500.