Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, January 10, 2020

Gold In Rally Mode Suggests Commitment of Traders (COT) Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Many people believe the price of Gold will need to fall to support Institutional short positions.  We don’t believe this is the case.  The Commitment Of Traders (COT) Data suggests Commercial Hedgers have a large and growing shot position that is a very positive sign for a continued rally in Gold and Miners looking forward months from now.

Don’t think about COT data like everyone else with it comes to gold.

Over the past 20+ years, every time the COT Commercial Hedgers position in Gold falls, weakens substantially, or makes new multi-year lows the price of gold rallies.

Friday, January 10, 2020

How on Earth Can Gold Decline During the U.S. – Iran Crisis? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

So, did U.S. and Iran just become best friends?

Gold’s huge reversal and a decline of about $50 in 24 hours might certainly suggest so to those, who choose to follow the news instead of estimating market’s moves using more reliable tools.

Of course, the two countries are not on friendly terms at this time. So, what happened that gold declined so much, so fast? Let’s start with going over what we explained yesterday as gold’s price action confirmed it so well.

Thursday, January 09, 2020

Is The Energy Sector Setting Up Another Great Entry? / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Another wild week for oil traders with missiles flying and huge overnight price swings in crude. As we recently pointed out within our current Oil research article, Oil and the Energy sector may be setting up for another great trade.  We recently commented on how the supply/demand situation for oil has changed over the past 20+ years. 

With US oil production near highs and a shift taking place toward electric and hybrid vehicles, the US and global demand for oil has fallen in recent years.  By our estimates, the two biggest factors keeping oil prices below $75 ppb are the shift by consumers across the globe to move towards more energy-efficient vehicles and the massive new supply capabilities within the US.

Wednesday, January 08, 2020

Gold Price at Resistance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses the effects of geopolitics on the price of gold. In this update I am not going to repeat the points made in the last fairly comprehensive update, instead we are going to focus on the importance of the resistance level just above where the price is now, and impact of the killing of the Iranian general and its potential implications for the gold price.

On the latest 10-year chart we can see that gold is making a second attack on the key major resistance level in the $1530-$1560 zone, which is hardly surprising considering what happened last week.

Wednesday, January 08, 2020

The All-Out View of Crude Oil’s Spike / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Let’s put the geopolitical gyrations in oil into a proper perspective by taking a look at the monthly chart. The overall situation hasn’t changed much as crude oil is still trading inside the blue consolidation below three very important resistances (the red and orange bearish gaps and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), which form the key resistance zone for the coming week(s).

Wednesday, January 08, 2020

Gold 2020 - Financial Analysts and Major Financial Institutions Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Santa Claus rally in Gold and Silver Crowns a very good year

It was a very good year for precious metals.  Gold posted a nearly 19% gain and silver rose over 17%.  As you can see in the chart below, the move higher began in early summer defying the annual summer doldrums, hit an impasse during autumn, then ended the year with a surprise Santa Claus rally that took it over the $1520 mark. Silver pushed briefly over the $18 mark in late December then settled at $17.78.  Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone offers a hopeful tone for our favorite precious metal as 2020 begins:

“It’s a new year and decade and gold is poised to follow the dollar and equities to new highs, in our view. When, should be the primary question, particularly when the stock market and greenback succumb to some normal mean reversion. Absent a new higher dollar and stock-price plateau, gold is set to join the all-time-highs club. Gold prices are on a sound footing for further advancement in the coming year and decade, in our view. Gold prices are on a sound footing for further advancement in the coming year and decade, in our view.”

Tuesday, January 07, 2020

Crude Oil Price Reverses Lower Again After US Missile Attack / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Normally, after tensions between Iran/Iraq and the US flare-up, Oil and Gold rally quite extensively but reversed sharply lower by the end of the session. 

Yes, Gold is 1% higher today and was up over $35 overnight, but Crude Oil has actually moved lower today which is a fairly strong indication that disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East are not as concerning as they were 10+ years ago. Traders and investors don’t believe this isolated targeted missile attack will result in any extended aggression between the US and Iran.

When past conflicts in the Middle East happened, Oil would typically rally and Gold would spike higher as well.  Consider this a reflex action to uncertain oil supply issues and concerns that global market uncertainty could crash the markets.  Gold seems like an easy expectation related to this type of uncertainty as it continues to act as a hedge against many risks like missiles/war, financial uncertainties etc…

Tuesday, January 07, 2020

Bullion Banks Used Paper Gold and Silver to Restrain Price Advance in 2019 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver investors buy metals because they are scarce. Precious metals are by nature difficult to find, and hard to produce. Consequently, above ground stocks are limited and valuable, particularly when priced in unlimited fiat currencies.

The bankers and government officials behind these fiat currency systems don’t like stable monetary benchmarks such as gold putting their inflation schemes on full display. They absolutely hate that gold works as a refuge.

Inflation is a stealth tax. Instead of overtly raising taxes, politicians simply borrow and print the money needed for more government. They just need people not to notice.

Monday, January 06, 2020

Will 2020 be Junior Mining Stock’s Year? / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Richard_Mills

Another year of covering commodities and select junior mining stocks is all but done and dusted. 

We’ve seen palladium prices more than double those of platinum, its sister metal, on tight supply and high demand for catalytic converters in gas-powered vehicles, as smog-belching diesel cars and trucks get phased out to meet tighter air emissions standards particularly in Europe and China. 

Monday, January 06, 2020

JPMorgan Silver Crime Charges to NY Fed REPO Loan Ramp / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Submissions

We often cover the ongoing JPMorgan silver bullion saga here. It seems we have a new twist in the ongoing story since JPMorgan's takeover of the bankrupt Bear Sterns short silver position in early 2008.

Late last year, in early November 2019, CBS’ 60 Minutes show did a puff Public Relations piece for the CEO of the world’s largest and Global Systematic Important Bank.

Here we see 60 Minutes interviewer Lesley Stahle as she interviews billionaire on paper, Jaime Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase.

Monday, January 06, 2020

Gold Stocks Head Fake? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold miners’ stocks blasted higher this past week, breaking out of their correction downtrend.  Rapidly-improving psychology fueled such strong upside momentum that sector benchmarks are challenging months-old upleg highs.  Most traders assume this is righteous, that gold stocks’ next upleg is starting to accelerate.  But key indicators argue the contrarian side, that this breakout surge is a head fake within a correction.

In early September, a major gold-stock upleg peaked after soaring higher on gold’s decisive bull-market breakout in late June.  The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, this sector’s leading benchmark and trading vehicle, had powered 76.2% higher over 11.8 months.  It crested the same day gold’s own upleg did, hitting $30.95 on close.  That major 3.1-year high proved the apex of that impressive gold-stock upleg.

Gold started grinding lower after its own September 4th upleg zenith of $1554, capping a massive 32.4% run over 12.6 months.  The gold stocks corrected with gold like usual, as these miners are essentially leveraged plays on gold.  Since their earnings amplify gold-price changes, the major gold stocks dominating GDX generally leverage gold by 2x to 3x.  So the gold stocks drifted lower over the next several months.

Sunday, January 05, 2020

Gold 2020 - Let’s Keep It Simple / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

When I peruse the comments on our Elliottwavetrader site alone, I am seeing a myriad of “beliefs” as to what the metals are doing and will be doing. Most of such beliefs seem to be driven by feelings, and quite a number of them have been fighting this metals rally. Yet, some are even driven by various forms of analysis.

Of late, we are seeing so many become fearful of the metals market due to the COT report being so “bearish.” But, I have already dealt with this issue last week, yet I am going to repeat why that report is really of lesser consequence, especially when viewed relative to the structure of the market and support and resistance:

“If you look at the attached chart for the last 20 years, you will see that during the parabolic rally of 2010-2011 in gold, the commercial traders were heavily short gold. In fact, you can see that during that entire period of time, commercial shorts remained at 200,000 or greater. Yet, that was during a period of time where gold rallied $800. For those counting in percentage terms, that means gold rallied 70%+ during a time where commercial traders were heavily short of gold.

Saturday, January 04, 2020

Setting Gold Market Expectations for 2020 Right / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Hooray, the twenties are here! But what will the 2020 bring for the gold market? Shall we see the beginning of the Belle Époque for the yellow metal?

Gold at the End of 2019

The last year was a very good one for the gold bulls, as one can clearly see in the chart below. Despite the soaring equities, the price of the yellow metal rose from $1279 to around $1520, or more than 18 percent. Bravo!

Saturday, January 04, 2020

Crude Oil Prices Have Peaked / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

Following the December 18, 2019 Market Minute titled "Are oil prices at a crest?" oil prices (WTI and Brent) are both finding increasing selling pressure as they moved to the top of their trading range.

Light crude oil found solid selling pressure around $62 and Brent at about $67 (Charts 1 & 2).

Friday, January 03, 2020

The Big Picture Backdrop for Precious Metals Outlook 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The year ahead promises to be an eventful one. It will, of course, be dominated by political headlines leading up to the 2020 election. It could also be a big breakout year for precious metals.

In the second part of Money Metals' 2020 Outlook, we’ll drill down on the fundamental and technical setup for gold and silver…
However, in this first part, we’ll set the stage by digging into the macro forces at play in the economy, monetary policy, politics, and geopolitics.

Friday, January 03, 2020

Gold and Silver Prediction Targets 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Gold rally we predicted to happen in late 2018 took place, almost perfectly, based on our ADL predictive modeling systems results.  This rally took place in May through September 2019 and pushed  Gold up to levels near $1600.  The rest of the year, Gold consolidated near $1500 as a strong US Stock Market rally took hold in Q4 of 2019.  Our original prediction was that Gold would rally to levels near $1750 before the end of 2019 based on our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system (ADL).  This did not happen in 2019 as out ADL modeling systems suggested, but it appears Gold is setting up for another massive upside rally in 2020.

Friday, January 03, 2020

Crude Oil Price Reverses Lower Faster Than You Can Blink / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although oil bulls managed to push the futures higher and broke above the upper border of the rising green trend channel during yesterday’s session, Monday’s upswing turned out only temporary.

Friday, January 03, 2020

Gold in 2019: Lessons for the Year Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The King is dead, long live the King - 2019 is over, long live the 2020! As tumultuous as they have been, what have we learned about the gold market in the past twelve months? And what can we glean from this knowledge for the times ahead?

Key Lessons For Gold Investors from 2019

Today is the last day of 2019. It was a good year for the gold bulls, as one can clearly see in the chart below. The price of the yellow metal increased from $1279 to $1474 (as of December 18 – yes, we wrote this article before the festive break). It means that gold rose more than 15 percent in 2019. The gold bulls cannot complain!

Thursday, January 02, 2020

Gold Market Update: Precious Metal Up, Dollar Down / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Clive_Maund

Technical expert Clive Maund charts the reasons the precious metals have entered a bull market.

Gold is now a major bull market, as evidenced by its strong breakout from a giant 6-year long base pattern in August. The larger trend is up. We had thought that it might react back closer to the breakout point before turning higher again, but it didn't, and started higher again in recent days over the Christmas period. This is a sign of greater strength.

There is a broad array of fundamental reasons for a bull market of unprecedented magnitude in gold, but by far the most important of them is the ongoing and accelerating destruction of currencies by central banks. They are responding to crushing debt burdens with money creation on a gargantuan scale, and we can expect them to maintain a low or negative interest rate environment and to pump money like crazy, since faced with a choice between a liquidity lockup and systemic implosion, and rampant money creation leading to hyperinflation, they are bound to follow the latter course. It is more gradual and buys them more time. While all central banks around the world are playing the same game, they will find it very hard to keep up with the Federal Reserve of the U.S., which is ramping up money creation at a frenetic pace, the effect of which will be to collapse the dollar, which is already starting to break down—hence last week's rally in gold and silver.

Thursday, January 02, 2020

Gold Investors Wrongly Fear The “COT” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

As a student of market history, I always find it interesting, and even sometimes quite comical, how certain fallacies about markets are continually propagated by investors and analysts alike. Throughout my career in writing about metals, I have tried to bring many of these to light, and explain why so many of the fallacies should be ignored.

The latest in the string of fallacies relates to the Commitment of Traders report (COT). The common argument suggests that as long as the commercial traders are shorting gold heavily, then gold cannot rally. And, much has been made of late regarding the heavy commercial short positions pointing to a major drop in the gold market. Yet, history suggests otherwise.