Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, June 14, 2020
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Sector Correction Starts as Risk On and Seasonal Factors Weigh / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses the factors he sees weighing on precious metals in the near term.
The precious metals sector is now set up for a correction that could be quite severe, which is evident on the charts, but also made more likely by the fundamentals where we see a return to "risk on" as a result of ongoing massive money injection by the Fed coupled with this being a seasonally weak summer period for the metals ahead of their seasonally strongest time, which runs from late July through September. The return of "risk on" will be greatly encouraged by the stock market breaking out to new highs which will suck money out of the PM sector to be deployed in biotech, blockchain, the FAANGS and the better cannabis stocks, but it should return as the economy gets going again and all the newly created money starts to drive inflation sharply higher.
Starting with gold's 6-month chart we see that it is weakening following a failed upside breakout from a Symmetrical Triangle, and is it now close to breaking the first line of support shown. Once that fails it is likely to head down to the next support level near to its 200-day moving average.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 12, 2020
US Dollar Cycle Points To New All-time Highs For Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
The US Dollar index is not a true measure of value of the US dollar. It just tracks an “exchange rate” between the US dollar and a basket of significant fiat currencies.
For a true measure of value of the US dollar it is better to look to Gold and Silver. However, there is a relationship between significant Gold rallies and the US Dollar index.
Gold has a tendency to rally at a certain time in a US Dollar index long-term cycle. Previously, I have looked at significant Silver rallies, relative to the US Dollar long-term cycle. Here, I would like to look at Gold.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 12, 2020
Will US Labor Market Recovery Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The recent job report is not reliable, but it shows recovery in the US labor market. The situation is still bad, but optimism could triumph for now, which is bad for gold.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Services released the newest edition of the Employment Situation Report. The publication shows that the US economy regained 2.5 million jobs in May, constituting the biggest nonfarm payroll surprise in history. Indeed, the economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a loss of 7.25 million jobs. The rebound is presented in the chart below.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 12, 2020
Bullion Bank Retreat Puts Floor Under Gold and Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Investors dumped paper gold and silver along with stocks, commodities, and most other asset classes in March. The price of silver dropped to $12.02/oz on March 18th and gold bottomed at $1,473/oz.
The bullion banks – notorious for their concentrated short positions – might have made a killing. But that isn’t what happened. Some of the most prominent players took massive losses instead.
Friday, June 12, 2020
Silver Investing Strategy / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Firstly, my long standing approach to Silver has been one of buying (accumulating) when the Silver price is cheap to invest to capitalise on long-term Spikes, as the silver price tends to be quite erratic in behaviour, prone to a lot of false signals so Silver can be a difficult market to trade i.e. tends to run stops and sharp movements contrary to the likes of Gold, just as we experienced during Summer 2019, with the bulk of the silver moves taking place towards the end of precious metals bull runs as illustrated by my analysis of May 2018 investing for a $35+ Spike.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 11, 2020
Gold Silver Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I am afraid I have got some bad news for all the Silver bugs out there, for the gold / silver ratio chart makes it crystal clear that Silver is NOT a safe haven precious metal. Yes you may still call it a precious metal but it is NOT GOLD! That's for sure!
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 11, 2020
Gold Sad Truth / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Michael_Pento
The sad truth is that few people really know very much about gold, especially when it comes to investing in the metal. They don’t understand what makes it so valuable and unique, and they know even less what moves its price. Since I don’t want to spend an hour on why it is so precious, I’ll just try and sum it up in a sentence: Gold is extremely rare, beautiful, portable, transferable, divisible without losing value, and virtually indestructible. Very few things on this earth can meet all those criteria, and that is why it is the most perfect form of money humankind has ever found.
Now more than ever, investors desperately need to know what really influences the dollar price of gold. This is the case given the unprecedented falsification of asset prices and debt monetization taking place today. Gold is not driven by the fear of a crash in the major market averages. Nor is it even primarily concerned about the inverse correlation to the U.S. dollar (USD). Indeed, the massive interest rate suppression scheme by the Fed since the Great Recession has been the main reason behind the outperformance of gold compared with the S&P 500. This is true even in the context of a rising USD.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 11, 2020
Silver’s Apparent Recovery / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
Some might say “Silver’s performance over the past several weeks has been nothing short of phenomenal.” Others talk and act as if all of their wildly crazy price predictions have already come true.
The chart (source) below is a one-year history of daily prices for SLV (Silver ETF)…
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 11, 2020
Unnatural Distortions and the Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
The most recent U.S. jobs report, which he believes is bound for revision, has Michael Ballanger musing on how economic policies are reflected—or distorted—in the precious metals markets.
I was sitting in my den looking out over the swamp—er—lake tonight when it appeared as though something was flailing around near the shoreline. So I threw on my deck shoes and went for a stroll down to the water to see what all the commotion was about. Now, you must understand that I have been around the Kawartha Lakes since my late teens, having fished for pickerel alongside the Buckhorn Dam in the summer of 1970. Back in the day, the pickerel were so plentiful that we would throw two or three of these two- to three-pound beauties into the live well and then play "catch and release" for the remainder of the day, because you were taught at a very young age that you only take what you need as food and you release anything else so they could grow and make more baby pickerel. At the root of the practice was one remarkably simple fact: Pickerel are the finest-eating freshwater fish in the world and you want to protect them.
So here I am, looking past the weeds and algae in the shallows of western Lake Scugog and what comes lumbering past is the most gawd-ugly creature that I have ever observed—an enormous Asian carp that had to be ten pounds. Before I could say "invasive species," two more appeared, equally as detestable and even larger than the leviathan that first surfaced, after which the fish began to perform a kind of floundering, splashing, mating ritual where they rotated their bodies over and around the female in a manner most foreign to anything I have observed in six decades of angling in the Ontario waterways.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 09, 2020
Silver vs Gold Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The silver price has managed to recover from the Corona crash of 2020 with the price back within it's trading range of $17 to $20. Though contrary to the Silver bugs perma expectations for the Silver price to track the Gold price higher, that's not what usually tends to happen as the below graph illustrates,, which if you have followed my previous Silver analysis articles than you would know this is the expected behaviour of Silver, Gold's volatile and unresponsive to events cheaper cousin.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 08, 2020
Gold Stocks Healthy Upleg / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks just rolled over into a correction, raising concerns about the staying power of their massive post-panic upleg. These higher prevailing gold prices have driven very-strong fundamentals at the gold miners. But they are entering the seasonally-weak summer doldrums. And current sentiment and technicals play major roles in governing when uplegs remain healthy or ready to give up their ghosts.
The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF remains the leading and dominant benchmark for this small contrarian sector. Its $14.3b in net assets this week were a colossal 33.2x bigger than those of its next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor! GDX’s only real rival is its little-brother GDXJ mid-tier gold-miners ETF, which is only about one-third of GDX’s size. The GDX gold stocks have sure had a wild ride.
Normally the major gold miners of GDX leverage material gold moves by 2x to 3x. Gold stocks’ excess gains during gold uplegs are necessary to compensate traders for miners’ big additional risks on top of gold-price fluctuations. These include operational risks at individual mines, geopolitical risks in countries hosting gold mines, financial risks from hedging and currency fluctuations, along with many other risks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 08, 2020
Will Great Unlock Push Gold Prices Down? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
As Great Lockdown was positive for the gold prices, the Great Unlock will be bad, right? We invite you to read our today’s article about the Great Unlock and find out whether it really must be negative for the gold prices.
It’s all government’s fault, right? After all, the Great Lockdown was introduced by the federal and state governments introduced, wasn’t? Well, not quite.
Before I will explain why, let me clear one thing up: I’m a liberty lover and I’m skeptical about the government regulations. And the economic shutdown was obviously untenable – the only reason to shut down the economy was to buy some time to prepare the healthcare system for better handling of the epidemic. So, it’s good that the Great Lockdown is ending.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 08, 2020
Silver/Gold Ratio Hits Target; About Those Inflation Indicators / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
The NFTRH plan is and has been that the gold mining sector, due to the fundamentals implied by the handy graphic below, could eventually lead a world full of inflatables higher. The miners, leveraging gold’s out performance to most everything else during liquidity crises and even deflation, move first and draw in the inflationist bugs later. If the macro goes inflationary the miners will likely continue to perform well (ref. the 2003-2008 period) but would no longer be the go-to sector.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 07, 2020
Gold, Stocks & The Pandemic: A Powerful Contracyclical Play In Action / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Dan_Amerman
While the use of gold to protect against inflation is well known, it has other investment attributes that are potentially even more valuable, and this is particularly true in times of crisis.
In this analysis, we will examine the relative performance of gold and stocks (as represented by the S&P 500) between early February and late May, as the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic shutdowns transformed global economies and markets.
The short term relationship that we will find is an almost perfect match with what fifty years of financial history shows us is perhaps gold's most valuable investment attribute over the long term, which is its contracyclical relationship with stock prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 07, 2020
A Huge Silver Rally Is The Next Step In The US Dollar Long-Term Cycle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
The US Dollar Index is getting close to the breakdown that will signal a massive Silver rally. A type of Silver rally that was last seen in the 70s, when Silver went from around $5 to $50.
The market has virtually completed a full cycle to set up the next Silver rally. See this long-term US Dollar Index chart:
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 07, 2020
Gold & Silver “Washout” – Get Ready For A Big Move Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Gold and Silver moved lower early on June 2nd and 3rd. Our research team believes this is a “Washout Low” price rotation following a technical pattern that will prompt a much higher rally in precious metals. This type of washout price rotation is fairly common before very big moves after Pennant/Flag formations or just after reaching major price trigger levels.
With Gold, a sideways Pennant/Flag formation has been setting up near our GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Resistance Arc. We believe the downward price rotation recently is a perfect setup for skilled technical traders to take advantage of lower entry price levels. The GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc will very likely be breached over the next 5 to 10 trading days and the price of Gold should rally well above $1850 in the process. We believe this Washout Rotation is a process of running through the Long Stops just below recent price activity that will end with a defined upside price rally over the next 2 to 5+ weeks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 07, 2020
When People Riot, Should We Call Military or Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Could 2020 end, please? The pandemic is not over and the US suffers now from mass riots across the country. They could aggravate the coronavirus crisis and increase the demand for gold.On May 26, a black man, George Floyd, was killed by the police in Minneapolis, Minnesota. During his arrest – he allegedly used earlier a $20 counterfeit bill in a nearby store – the police officer put a knee on Floyd’s neck on the ground, although the arrestee was not aggressive and repeated several times that he could not breathe.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 07, 2020
Precious Metals Complex Big Picture / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
From the March 23rd low in the PM complex we’ve enjoyed the first easy part of this rally that should have many years to run yet. Every bull market will consist of an impulse move followed by a consolidation period, rinse and repeat until the bull market ends with some type of reversal pattern. Normally in a secular bull market the turning points will generally be very large to buildup the energy to advance to new highs.
The current 2nd leg up in the secular PM complex bull market actually began in January of 2016 after the first leg up ran from 2000 to 2011. There was a cyclical bear market within the secular bull market that ran from the 2011 high to the January 2016 low. It’s important to understand which part of a bull market one is in as to not get confused on what may lay ahead.
Tonight I would like to show you some long term quarterly line charts that I use when looking for big chart patterns that usually show up at important long term reversal points that can take years to complete. I usually only post these charts just a couple of times a year as change comes very slowly but when change does come it’s important to pay close attention because the change usually represents a major trend change.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 05, 2020
Potential Highs and Lows For Gold In 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
DOWNSIDE POSSIBILITIES FOR GOLD PRICE
There is a correlation of gold’s increasing price relative to the declining value of the US dollar. The chart (source for all charts) below shows this inverse relationship clearly…
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 05, 2020
Tying Gold Miners and USD Signals for What Comes Next / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The precious metals sector was likely to decline, and it did exactly that. And based on what we just saw, it’s likely to decline even more.
Once again, the situation yesterday and so far today developed quite in tune with what we wrote yesterday, so today’s analysis will take form of a broad update. Let’s take a look at the GLD ETF. In yesterday’s and Monday’s analyses, we described it in the following way:
Read full article... Read full article...