Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Gold surged on Monday after a spike in coronavirus cases worldwide dashed hopes of a quick economic recovery. Within 24-hours the number of infections globally rose 183,020, a new record, the World Health Organization reported, Reuters said the US saw a 25% increase in new COVID-19 cases over the week ending June 21st. 

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Why People Have Always Held Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

The current phase of the gold bull market, which started last year, is – we believe – the third and final wave of the secular bull run tracking back to 2001.

It's going to create a tidal bore of immense size and power. A wave that those who hold the metal (and silver) can ride as insurance against state-sponsored value-destruction of a country's currency, and as real money that cannot and has not ever gone to zero in recorded history.

It could last 3 or 4 years, until the end of this decade... or beyond.

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil moved above the previous highs and at the moment of writing these words, it’s testing the upper border of the March price gap. And given the fundamental news that are reaching (and likely to reach) the market – the increasing Covid-19 cases in the U.S. and globally – it seems that black gold might not have enough strength to keep pushing higher.

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Historical precedents are in many a technician's toolbox – and it's a tool they reach for with success repeatedly. Does the yellow metal offer any interesting parallels?

Gold had declined and it recovered, but the above simply prolongs the 2008-2020 analogy; it doesn’t invalidate it. Today, gold is attempting to break above the previous highs, but it’s not being successful in that.

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Don’t Expect an Uneventful Summer for Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Bullion premiums have been drifting lower in recent weeks after spiking earlier this spring. That in part reflects a waning of fear among investors… and a hope for markets and the economy returning to normal as we head into the summer.

But make no mistake, these are NOT normal times.

Not with some parts of the economy still locked down. Not with the Federal Reserve embarked on an unlimited Quantitative Easing program that will dwarf all others that came before it. And not with the fabric of American society being ripped apart by radicals who are bent on erasing history and fomenting a race war.

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Silver Price Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Long-term Trend Analysis

Silver faces very heavy overhead resistance from $18 all the way to $21 which means that it is going to be tough going and take significant effort for Silver to reach let alone breach $21. Whilst there is strong support at $16 and $14.5 (ignoring the crash low of $11.64).

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal / Commodities / Infrastructure

By: Richard_Mills

Donald Trump appears to have torn a page from Ahead of the Herd’s manual for recharging the US economy. 

In an earlier article we said what the global economy really needs, in this low-growth, spending-stalled environment brought about by the pandemic, is a push - something big that will attract huge amounts of investment, and workers. As we have suggested, this could be a massive infrastructure spending program, on the scale of President Roosevelt’s “New Deal”.

Not coincidentally - we like to think Trump reads AOTH - the administration is said to be preparing a nearly $1 trillion infrastructure proposal – some of the dollars are geared toward 5G/ Broadband - as a way of spurring the world’s largest economy back to life. US GDP growth fell 5% in the first quarter and when second-quarter economic output figures are released, they will be far worse, likely double-digit.  

Fortune Magazine reported A preliminary version being prepared by the Department of Transportation would reserve most of the money for traditional infrastructure work, like roads and bridges, but would also set aside funds for 5G wireless infrastructure and rural broadband, the people said...

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The economic pressures and concerns within the global markets have not abated just because the US Fed has ramped up the printing presses. Inversely, the stock market price levels may be elevated based on a false expectation of a quick recovery and of future expectations that may be very unrealistic.

In terms of technical analysis, Gold has set up a very interesting sideways basing pattern after recently breaking above a major resistance channel near $1720.  Our research team believes the recent base in Gold, near $1720 to $1740 is setting up just like the 2005 to 2007 peak in the US stock markets – just before the Credit Crisis hit in 2008.  We believe the similarities of the current and past events, in price and in technical/fundamental data, are strangely similar.

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

We previously wrote that while it was tempting to bet on crude oil’s prices due to their weakness, it was not a good idea from the risk to reward point of view, as black gold didn’t invalidate the breakout above the early-March high. And it was definitely a good idea not to enter a short position then either – crude oil moved higher since that time.

Monday, June 22, 2020

Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Dimitri_Speck

In recent issues of Seasonal Insights, my colleague Tea Muratovic and I shared our analysis of global stock markets with you.

Today I want to put a popular precious metal under the magnifying glass for you: silver.

Silver, often referred to as the "little brother" of gold, has a particularly interesting seasonal pattern I would like to show to you.

Saturday, June 20, 2020

Gold Sector Correction is Maturing / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Gold Stock Seasonal Average

The HUI Gold Bugs index has over the last 2 decades (encompassing both bull and bear markets) tended to bottom in July per stockcharts.com‘s data for the index. A seasonal average is not a directive, but it is a () guide to be factored. Last year gold stocks bottomed in May as we caught what would be a violent upswing. This year I expect the low to be in June or July.

Saturday, June 20, 2020

Gold Futures Firepower Mounts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s powerful post-stock-panic upleg hasn’t enjoyed buying support from the gold-futures speculators.  These influential traders often drive and even dominate major gold-price trends.  But they’ve been subtly selling into gold’s sharp recent rally.  Their dogged skepticism is actually very bullish for gold in coming months.  Gold-futures speculators are amassing big gold-futures-buying firepower that will be unleashed.

The maelstrom of extreme fear spawned by mid-March’s stock panic even briefly sucked in gold.  It had surged to a 7.1-year secular high of $1675 during the initial weeks of that heavy stock-market selling.  But once that went panic-grade, which is major stock indexes plummeting 20%+ in 2 weeks or less, even gold was dumped in the frantic dash for cash.  Similar to prior panics, gold plunged 12.1% in just 8 trading days.

But that sharp emotional drop was wildly-unjustified fundamentally.  With stock markets burning and the Fed printing crazy-record sums of new money like there’s no tomorrow, gold should’ve been soaring.  So it rapidly V-bounced out of that anomalous stock-panic low, to blast much higher over the next couple months.  Between mid-March to late May, gold surged up 18.7% to a 7.5-year secular high near $1748.

Thursday, June 18, 2020

Low Inflation Makes Powell a Dove. How It Affects Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation remains low, while Powell signals dovish Fed for years. Good for gold.

The US CPI inflation rate declined 0.1 percent in May, following a 0.8 percent drop in April. The decrease was mainly driven by decreases in energy, transportation and apparel prices. The core CPI also declined 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent drop in April. It was the third consecutive monthly decline, which happened for the first time in history of the index that starts in 1957. Anyway, compared with the previous month, we see some stabilization of disinflation forces, at least on a monthly basis.

On annual basis, the overall CPI increased just 0.2 percent (seasonally adjusted and merely 0.1 percent without the seasonal adjustments), following 0.4 percent increase in April. It was the smallest 12-month increase since October 2015. The core CPI rose 1.2 percent over the last 12 months, compared to the 1.4 percent increase in the previous month. It was the smallest increase since March 2011. Both indices are substantially lower than a few months ago. The chart below shows these disinflationary trends.

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Silver is Going to have a Sudden, Massive Move to $50 that will Suprise Everyone / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento president and founder of Pento Portfolio Services. Michael is a well-known money manager, market commentator, and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. He's been a regular guest with us over the years, and it's always a pleasure to have him on with us.

Michael, thanks for the time again today and welcome back.

Michael Pento: Thank you so much for having me back on Mike.

Mike Gleason: Well, Michael, it's been a few months since we've had you on last and just a little bit has been going on in the world. COVID-19 has hit the states to say the least and caused major disruptions in the economy. Governors have instituted stay-home orders. Tens of millions of people have filed for unemployment. Now we're seeing major rioting and social unrest in many cities throughout the country over the police killing of a black man in Minnesota last week.

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Gold Stocks Investment Strong / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold investment demand remains strong, buoying the yellow metal and its miners’ stocks.  Investors have continued actively diversifying into gold despite soaring stock markets and weaker summer seasonals.  The Fed’s extreme money printing fueling these precarious stock-market heights is perilously inflationary, making upping gold portfolio allocations essential.  This ongoing capital shift is likely to keep pushing gold higher.

The dominant driver of gold’s major price trends is investment demand.  While it isn’t the largest demand category, it varies greatly depending on global-financial-market conditions.  The best global gold supply-and-demand data is only published quarterly by the venerable World Gold Council, in its must-read Gold Demand Trends reports.  They highlight the big volatility inherent in gold investment demand in recent years.

From 2015 to 2019, jewelry demand averaged 51.2% of overall gold demand.  But the biggest jewelry year out of the last 5 was only 1.2x the smallest one in tonnage-demand terms.  Investment demand only averaged 29.0% of overall gold demand in 2015 to 2019, yet the difference between the best and worst years in this span was 1.7x.  The WGC’s latest GDT on Q1’20 again proved how important investment is.

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Silver Tops Gold in May, Setting up a Summer Surge / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Although the gold to silver ratio has tightened a bit, it remains elevated and could indicate more upside for silver, according to McAlinden Research Partners.

Silver and silver miners popped in May on the back of a rebound in industrial activity around the world. Ultra-low interest rates and expectations of a weaker dollar have compounded several political pressures that begun popping up at the end of the month. Though the gold to silver ratio has tightened a bit, it remains elevated and could indicate more upside for silver.

Silver futures capped a gain of nearly 24% for the month of May, the largest monthly gain since 2011. The metal jumped strongly on hopes of an upturn in industrial activity as economies around the world have begun to "reopen" in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Strong Demand Will Not Send Gold Price Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Gold is original money. As such, it is the measure of value for everything else.

Gold was money before the US dollar and other paper currencies. All paper currencies are substitutes for gold, i.e., real money.

So, how much is money worth? Money is worth what you can buy with it. In my article A Loaf Of Bread, A Gallon Of Gas, An Ounce Of Gold, I compared the cost to purchase bread and gasoline over the past one hundred years using US dollars vs. gold.

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Gold Stocks Correction and Upcoming Opportunity / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Before updating the status of the gold miner (HUI) correction, let’s take a quick review of the Macrocosm, because it’s always a good time to be clear on important macro considerations.

The graphic makes the following points that are the foundation of the NFTRH view on the right/wrong times to be fundamentally bullish on the gold stock sector. In order of priority, a bullish view needs:

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Stocks Bulls Beware: A Dark Cloud Is Forming Over Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Bullish sentiment appears to have returned to the stock markets with a vengeance. In a historic rally that has taken even die-hard bulls by surprise, the S&P 500 has managed to claw back all of its 2020 losses, taking just 53 sessions for the index to fully restore the nearly $10T in value it shed in an epic bear market. The oil markets have been nearly as impressive.

After entering negative territory for the first time in history, U.S. WTI prices have briefly touched $40/bbl amid record production cuts and an uptick in global demand. Oil and gas stocks have doubled from their March 23 nadir, marking a sharp reversal from the precipitous drop that wiped out nearly two decades of gains.

Monday, June 15, 2020

Silver: How to Gauge the Crowd's Mindset / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

Watching out for sentiment extremes helps you avoid getting "caught up with the crowd"

Simply put, a market sentiment extreme is a situation when most everyone has already taken a bullish or bearish position in a financial asset, leaving almost no one left to buy or sell.

Silver provides an excellent case study.

Let's briefly go back to April 18, 2011, when Elliott Wave International's U.S. Short Term Update, which provides near-term forecasts for major U.S. financial markets thrice weekly, showed this chart and said: