Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, July 17, 2020

Gold Rallies Together With U.S. Covid-19 Cases / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The number of cases of Covid-19 in the U.S. have been rallying very quickly in last weeks, giving way only to the gold prices, which have surpassed $1,800.

It’s not easy to terminate the viruses, especially that they are not quite alive. Indeed, the pandemic of the coronavirus is still not over, as the chart below shows. The global number of daily confirmed Covid-19 cases has surpassed 220,000 last week – and the trend is still upward.

Friday, July 17, 2020

Gold & Silver Measured Moves / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The next few weeks are certain to attract much attention to precious metals.  Hardly anyone can argue that Gold has not experienced an incredible upside price rally over the last 12+ months.  Recently, Gold closed above $1800 for the first time since 2011.  Our researchers believe the next target is $1935.  Keep reading to learn why we believe this is the next major price target for Gold.

Gold Weekly Price Analysis

Over the past 18+ months, Gold continues to develop price patterns that seem to be replicating going forward.  This pattern consists of an advance in price followed by consolidation/rotation in price to set up a new momentum base.  The example of this price advance from May 2019 to August 2019 consisted of a $267 upside price advance (just over 20%).  Subsequent advances were similar in size. November 2019 to March 2020 advance rose $248.  March 2020 to April 2020 advance rose $325. 

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Silver Is At A Critical Point Based On US Dollar Action / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Previously, I have shown how  there were virtually no significant Silver rallies over the last 50 years during a period when the US Dollar index has been rising.

Betting on a silver rally when the US Dollar index is in decline makes for great odds. There have been two significant Silver rallies in the last 50 years (marked out with rectangles on the chart below). During both of these, the US dollar index was in serious decline.

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Gold & Silver Gaining on US Dollar Weakness / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

The US economy is nowhere near recovering from the lockdown measures imposed by cities and states during the covid-19 pandemic, and that is weighing on the US dollar, which has fallen sharply since March. 

The beneficiary, as expected, has been gold (and silver), which normally moves in the opposite direction as the greenback. Year to date, spot gold has risen 16% to $1,811/oz, while the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of its value against a basket of currencies, has slumped 6% to 96.60. 

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Gold Amid Epidemiological and Economical Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Sometimes when we observe people on the streets, when we see crowded restaurants and pubs, it seems like the pandemic has ended. But is the global epidemic really over? Not at all. Please look at the chart below. As one can see, the daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world is still in an upward trend.

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Is it Time To Dump Gold Stocks? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Submissions

As a contrarian and long-term holder of Goldcorp. (now Newmont), the latest push higher in the price of gold begs the question: is now the time to sell? The concern, for the uninitiated, is that after the price of gold moves powerfully higher there is an uncanny tendency for forces to mysteriously align and push prices powerfully lower. These “forces” (excuse the conspiratorial flare), have been known to short paper gold contracts in seemingly unlimited quantities, and, according to some, with the implicit backing of the Federal Reserve…

Conspiracy or not, it is obvious that the paper-traded price of gold can have an impact on the physical price of gold and/or the sentiment of those that buy and sell precious metals. After all, just as “$1,800+ gold!” attracts attention, like it did today, so too can headlines like “COMEX gold suffers historic crash!”. In other words, while record inflows into gold ETFs this year are certainly noteworthy, the informed contrarian knows that record inflows can quickly lead to record outflows.

Sunday, July 12, 2020

Getting Ahead of the Game: What Determines the Prices of Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Dylan_Moran

Oil is a commodity that plays an indisputable role in the global economy. At the start of the 20th century, the oil industry went into mass production, thus giving birth to what we refer to as the modern era of oil consumption. Gradually, coal was starting to take a backseat to it and oil became the world’s #1 fuel source and the undisputed king of commodity trading.

To this very day, this remains unchanged. The only question is, what drives the prices of oil?

Saturday, July 11, 2020

The Bearish Combination of Soaring Silver and Lagging GDX Miners / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Silver is moving up quite shortly today, which sounds bullish, until one realizes that silver tends to be particularly strong right before the precious metals market tops. And you know what’s the other thing that quite often happens at the tops, in addition to silver’s temporary strength? Miners tend to underperform. What did gold miners do on the last trading day of the previous week?

Friday, July 10, 2020

Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: readtheticker

Every market corrects, maybe profit taking, maybe of allowing those who missed out, to get in!

The current open interest on the gold contract looks to high after a very fast price move, it looks like 2008 may be repeating. A quick flushing out of the weak hands open interest may take place before a real advance in price takes place. The correction may be on the back of a wider sell off of risk assets (either before of after US elections) as all assets suffer contagion selling (just like 2008).

This blog view is a gold price correction of 10% to 20% range is a buying opportunity. Of course we may see a very minor price correction but a long time correction, a price or time is correction is expected, we shall watch and wait.

Thursday, July 09, 2020

Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks suffer their weakest seasonals of the year in early summers.  With traders’ attention normally diverted to vacations and summer fun, interest in and demand for precious metals usually wane.  Without outsized investment demand, gold tends to drift sideways dragging silver and miners’ stocks with it.  Feared as the summer doldrums, sometimes unusual catalysts short-circuit them.

This doldrums term is very apt for gold’s summer predicament.  It describes a zone in the world’s oceans surrounding the equator.  There hot air is constantly rising, creating long-lived low-pressure areas.  They are often calm, with little or no prevailing winds.  History is full of accounts of sailing ships getting trapped in this zone for days or weeks, unable to make headway.  The doldrums were murder on ships’ morale.

Crews had no idea when the winds would pick up again, while they continued burning through their limited stores of food and drink.  Without moving air, the stifling heat and humidity were suffocating on these ships long before air conditioning.  Misery and boredom were extreme, leading to fights breaking out and occasional mutinies.  Being trapped in the doldrums was viewed with dread, it was a very trying experience.

Gold investors can somewhat relate.  Like clockwork heading into most summers, gold starts drifting listlessly sideways.  It often can’t make significant progress no matter what trends looked like heading into June, July, and August.  As the days and weeks slowly pass, sentiment deteriorates markedly.  Patience is gradually exhausted, supplanted with deep frustration.  Plenty of traders capitulate, abandoning ship.

Thursday, July 09, 2020

Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Gold stocks have led the market for a year, and with economic deceleration and Fed policy response that leadership looks to continue [edit: today’s ‘in the bag’ bounce-back Jobs report does little to alter the economic deceleration theme]

We have been on a bullish gold mining view for over a year now. Over that time there have been three interruptions, the downward-biased consolidation from August to November 2019, the flash crash (and very constructive gap filling mission) in March and most recently the pullback that logically began in May as broad stock market relief started to fan out to more and more momentum chasers who’d finally gotten the hint that the Fed means to devalue the US currency (in competition to a degree with its global counterparts seeking to do the same), making cash a non-viable investment position (other than for risk management to the bullish asset market atmosphere).

Thursday, July 09, 2020

Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The entire global financial structure is in the process of faltering, breaking, and crumbling. It is better described as sabotage by the Globalist cabal in league with their fascist partners. As the entire economy fractures, as all debt faces failure, as most assets break down, as countless households struggle, the King Dollar faces a certain sunset, true safe haven will be uniformly sought. Correspondingly, the Gold price is ready to launch onward and upward. It will light the fuse on the Silver price in sequence. Demand will skyrocket, while supply has been limited. Behold the greatest fraud and hoax in the history of mankind behind the corona virus. It is named after the Queen of England, a primary funding partner. She filed a corona virus patent in December 2018, from engineered creation. The COVID-19 entity is far more a fascist project to force political change than actually a virus at all. The disease is a mirage, and exaggerated agent of deep fear and fright. Let it be known that not 5% of the population know what a virus is, how it works, the method to identify, or the best prevention. Ignorance is a great ally to the global cabal.

Wednesday, July 08, 2020

Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

What a crazy six months! Let’s look at the chart below. As you can see, over the first half of the year, gold gained more than 16 percent, rising from $1,515 at the end of December 2019 to $1,762 at the end of June 2020.

Tuesday, July 07, 2020

Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz claimed last week that the Kingdom will be the world’s biggest hydrocarbon producer “even” in 2050.

“I can assure that Saudi Arabia will not only be the last producer, but Saudi Arabia will produce every molecule of hydrocarbon and it will put it to good use … It will be done in the most environmentally sound and safe way and the most sustainable way,” Abdulaziz said when asked about the oil market outlook in 2050 during a virtual conference convened by Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative Institute (FII-I).

Abdulaziz added that Saudi Arabia “will be the last and biggest producer of hydrocarbon even then,” referring to 2050.

Tuesday, July 07, 2020

These Are the Times That Call for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

As third quarter trading kicks off following a tumultuous first half of the year, investors are hoping for an auspicious July.

Both stocks and precious metals posted impressive advances in the second quarter. The S&P 500 finished the April-June period with a gain of nearly 20%, its best quarterly performance since 1998. The Dow Jones Industrials, meanwhile, posted its best quarter since 1987.

It’s worth noting that in 1998 – and more famously in 1987 – the stock market also suffered a sharp 20%+ decline during the second half of the year.

Sunday, July 05, 2020

Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold just closed the month and quarter and its performance on the final day of both was very encouraging for the bulls. What’s going on and what changed?

Let’s start with the big picture.

Sunday, July 05, 2020

Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve / Commodities / Market Manipulation

By: Kelsey_Williams

Some gold bulls have bought in heavily to the argument that gold price suppression has been an ongoing activity for years, even decades. Supposedly, trading in the gold market is manipulated in ways that depress the market price for gold.

Assertions are made that the manipulation takes place in a shroud of secrecy; and the unexpected lower prices for gold, or prices that don’t meet wildly bullish expectations, are cited as evidence of conspiratorial activity.

The claim is made that the price of gold would be much higher if this manipulative trading activity were exposed, acknowledged, and prohibited. But…

Friday, July 03, 2020

Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Formulating a Trend Forecast

It is clear that Silver is NOT Gold, so NOT to make the mistake of looking at what Gold has done and thinking Silver will replicate that move, it rarely does! At best Silver tends to play catchup towards the end of precious metals bull trends.

Silver is in a strong bull trend off the March low that is targeting resistance at $19 and then $20, beyond which lies $21. The big question mark is can Silver break above resistance or not. Balance of evidence suggests Silver's going to correct before it is able to clear resistance.

Friday, July 03, 2020

Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts his expectations for how silver prices will respond to movement in the stock market.

Much of what is written in the parallel Gold Market update is equally applicable to silver and it will not be repeated here.

Although silver has picked up significantly since its March low it has greatly underperformed gold over the past two years. But this is normal during the earliest stages of a major sector bull market, when gold is favored over silver.

On its 20-year chart we can see that silver remains stuck within a giant base pattern that started to form as far back as 2013. This chart makes clear that once gold breaks out to new highs against the dollar, then silver should break out of this base to enter a dynamic advancing phase.

Friday, July 03, 2020

Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold has broken out from a two-month-long consolidation (from $1680 to $1770), but the other precious metals markets have not confirmed Gold’s strength.

The gold stocks (GDX, GDXJ) remain below their May highs while Silver remains below significant, multi-year resistance around $18.75. Silver closed Monday at $18.06.

Furthermore, Gold, when priced against foreign currencies, has not broken out. This move has been driven mostly by dollar weakness.