Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, May 08, 2020

A New Day Has Dawned for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Most resource sector writers (including me) have for a long time been "wrong" about gold and silver.

When they ran from $250 and $5 an ounce, respectively, to $1,920 and $49 in 2011, those who listened, acted, and sold a bit did quite well. We argued the "longer time bullish case" as these metals dropped into their final cyclical bear market graves in late 2015.

But that was then… and this is now.

What we DID get right was that when the Big Turn finally came, it would change directions so swiftly and violently that anyone waiting for "the bottom" would miss it, as rising premiums more than offset declining prices.

Thursday, May 07, 2020

Light Crude oil prices have bottomed and starting to rise / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

Light Crude oil prices have dropped an alarming 68 percent since the start of 2020. Brent prices are down 60 percent over the last four months. But recent price action appears to show that the worst of oil's decline is likely over.

As the world economies are still being mauled by the effects of COVID-19, there are growing signs that oil prices are starting to recover.

Thursday, May 07, 2020

Natural Gas Breaks $2.00 On Upside Rally and Next Target / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Overnight, Natural Gas broke above the $2.00 price level as we expected.  On April 6, 2020, we published our research that Natural Gas was setting up a bottom pattern and that our seasonal analysis suggested April and May should prompt a price rally in Natural Gas pushing price levels above $2.40. 

The current rally has broken above a price resistance level near $2.00 and the rally up to $2.40 may happen faster than we expect.  Currently, our Daily Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting the $2.35 area is the first area of resistance.  Beyond that, the next level of resistance would be near $2.90.  Beyond that incredible upside target, the Fibonacci Weekly data is projecting an upper target near $3.60.

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

Economic Collaspe Gold Price $6,600 or $22,000 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Bob Moriarty of 321gold discusses economic collapse and gold.

I like to read. I read fast and that helps.

I can't quite come to grips with all these guys now coming out with 25-minute videos they insist we watch instead of reading. Do they really believe that everyone has so much free time that they can pay attention to someone chattering away for 25 minutes?

Most of what you read or watch will be noise, meaningless stuff put out by guys who always have an agenda and certainly a bias. The majority has never had an original thought in their lives; all they do is parrot what some other fool has to say. When they want your money and that is pretty often, they figure out what you want to hear. That's what they tell you, just like TV preachers and politicians.

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Gold and Silver: Pay Attention to This Noteworthy Record High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

Here's what usually occurs in related financial markets when "big changes in social mood are afoot"

Related financial markets tend to move together. For example, gold and silver.

Or, consider stocks. When the Dow Industrials are up on a given trading day, the NASDAQ is usually in the green too. The same applies when the Dow is down. Other major stock indexes tend to close in negative territory as well.

However, when a trend is near exhaustion -- whether bullish or bearish -- "non-confirmations" often happen. A non-confirmation occurs when one market makes a new high (or low), but a related market does not.

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Americans Just Can’t Get Enough Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets enter the month of May with some mixed signals near term.  But the long-term picture continues to look constructive.  All the metals appear to have put in major bottoms during the panic selling of mid to late March.

Barring another wave of virus outbreaks and economic lockdowns, the gradual reopening of state, local, and national economies should start to unleash more industrial and jewelry demand in the not too distant future. 

And the extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus being pumped into the financial system will, if nothing else, work toward the debasement of the U.S. dollar. 

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Silver’s Epic Mean Reversion / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Silver is powering higher in a new bull market after getting clobbered in March’s stock panic.  Investors have been flocking back to silver in the aftermath of that ultra-rare extreme-fear event.  That brutal selloff also utterly wiped out speculators’ upside bets in silver futures, giving them massive room to buy back in.  After being pummeled to record-low levels relative to gold, an epic silver mean reversion higher is underway.

A couple weeks ago, I wrote a popular essay “Big Silver Bull Running!”.  It explained what happened to silver in this recent COVID-19 stock panic, and why silver soared in its wake.  Sucked into that blinding fear maelstrom, silver was thrashed to a miserable 10.9-year low.  This metal plummeted in a near-crash, fueled by speculators’ fastest long purge ever witnessed!  That exhausted their selling, totally resetting longs.

That meant these super-leveraged traders’ capital firepower was fully available to buy back into silver.  And much more bullish than that, strong and relentless silver investment demand emerged since that mid-March collapse.  That’s evident in the soaring silver-bullion holdings of silver’s leading exchange-traded fund, the SLV iShares Silver Trust!  This dominant silver ETF is the best daily proxy for global investment demand.

Monday, May 04, 2020

Gold $3K to $20K Coming? These Pundits (now 34) Think So! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Lorimer_Wilson

10 years ago every “analyst” and his brother was hyping the future price of gold and I kept track of their guesses in an article entitled “Gold Going To $2500, $5000, $10000, Even More? These 148 “Analysts Think/Thought So“. None of their forecasts “panned” out (pun intended) but some are back at it again suggesting that we are going to see gold going as high as $20,000.

Sunday, May 03, 2020

Monster Gains in Mining Stocks Bode Well for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: MoneyMetals

April marks a second month of truly extraordinary developments in markets – from negatively priced crude oil futures to a record spike in unemployment claims to a lockdown-defying rally in stocks.

The financial media is touting the S&P 500’s surge of more than 13% in April – the biggest one-month gain for the index since 1974.

Saturday, May 02, 2020

Crude Oil Prices Go NEGATIVE! What's Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Negative oil prices is another corona consequences that no one saw coming. A 30% drop in world oil demand due to the corona lockdown's resulting in demand falling to 70m barrels per day, whilst the producers are pumping out over 90mbd meant that storage faculties had become saturated, thus nowhere to transport new supply to.

Saturday, May 02, 2020

Gold and Silver, Lockdowns and Reopening / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The action in silver is really interesting. Let’s check the prospects for volatile white metal, and the relevant historical analogy it offers. Is the major 2008 – 2020 analogy in terms of price moves remains intact? In short, yes.

Saturday, May 02, 2020

About Gold Miners and Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

I think the case is closed, or it should be closed. But with firmly ingrained perceptions passed down from one generation of inflationist gold bugs to the next, you never know. Remember the old dismissive “gold is silver is copper is tin is oil is hogs” line from the 2003-2008 time frame? Probably not, but I remember it because it was me saying it against an army of inflationist commodity and resources bulls advising to buy gold, buy silver, buy oil… buy resources of all kinds to protect yourself from the evils of inflation!

As an interlude, here is a pleasant interaction I had with a reader (actually, the interaction was his in a comment to an article of mine, but you get the drift) during the 2016 gold sector launch that ultimately proved to be ill-fated by mid-year because… inflation.

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Gold Price Will Hit $3,000, But It's Going to Be a Wild Ride / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Agora Financial's Byron King and John-Mark Staude of Riverside Resources offer their viewpoints on markets during the COVID-19 pandemic in this conversation with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable.

Maurice Jackson: Today, we will seek to discover the true price of gold and silver and prospect generators. Joining us for a conversation is Byron King of Agora Financial, along with Dr. John-Mark Staude of Riverside Resources Inc. (RRI:TSX.V; RVSDF:OTCQB). Gentlemen, I hope you both doing well.

Mr. King, I'd like to begin with you, sir. Bloomberg issued a press release recently that Bank of America expects gold to reach $3,000/ounce, which is a 50% increase from its record. In your opinion, is this a realistic number, or was Bank of America being far too generous or conservative?

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

The Crude Oil Futures Crash Is a Warning to Gold Speculators / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

The metals complex showed relative stability this week as the oil market suffered a historic meltdown. West Texas Intermediate Crude crashed 70% at one point this week on the continuous contract, bringing prices briefly below $7 per barrel. By Thursday, prices were trading between $14 and $18 per barrel.

The volatility on the May futures contract was even more extreme. On Monday, May futures for crude oil crashed to one dollar, then to zero, then to a few pennies below zero, then to an unbelievable negative $37 per barrel.

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Gold and the Debasement of Currency Con / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

It is reasonably well known that many Roman emperors debased their currency (coinage). This was a very bad practice, since it is really a reflection of the debasement of the value of the kingdom (empire or country); going from a honest and just society to a corrupt and unjust society.

One of the reasons (effects) of debasing the currency was the transfer of wealth from the citizens to the ruling class. When the gold or silver content of the coinage is reduced, then more of the official coinage can be made, with a similar amount of gold or silver; therefore, increasing the money supply without the input of more gold or silver.

The increase of the money supply leads to reduced purchasing power, and this is the mechanism whereby they are robbed, since it is the ruling class that essentially bags the difference in purchasing power.

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Gold Stocks Bull Breakout! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks surged to a major bull-market breakout this week!  Powering decisively above their years-old secular resistance is a hugely-important technical event.  It proves this gold-stock bull is alive and well, greatly improves sentiment, and puts this high-flying sector on countless more traders’ radars.  New bull highs fuel self-feeding bullish psychology, as speculators and investors love chasing winners.

The gold miners’ stocks are essentially leveraged plays on gold, since its price overwhelmingly drives their earnings and thus ultimately stock prices.  So gold-stock bulls and bears mirror and amplify gold’s own major market cycles.  Today’s secular gold bull began marching in mid-December 2015, birthed from choking despair.  Gold stocks’ parallel bull arose from the ashes about a month later in mid-January 2016.

The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF is this sector’s most-popular benchmark today.  It plunged to a fundamentally-absurd all-time-record low of $12.47 at that terrible nadir.  This major gold miners’ ETF had collapsed 81.3% during the previous 4.4 years in an exceedingly-brutal bear market!  Left for dead, virtually everyone hated this small contrarian sector.  But such shocking extremes forge new secular bulls.

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Precious Metals Market Premiums, the COMEX and the Macro Picture / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable speaks with Andy Schectman, president of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments, about the present situation with physical precious metals.

Maurice Jackson: Today, we're going to discuss precious metals premiums, the COMEX and the big picture. Joining us for a conversation is Andy Schectman, the president of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments.

Andy, investors in physical precious metals are upset with high premiums over spot for precious metals. Can you discuss the reasoning behind the high premiums, the supply chain, and just a number of the intangibles that really go into what's causing premiums to soar at records highs above and beyond the spot price?

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Uranium's Stealth Bull Market Garners Momentum / Commodities / Uranium

By: The_Energy_Report

With the supply/demand balance moving in favor of miners, the outlook for uranium stocks is the brightest it has been in years, according to McAlinden Research Partners.

SUMMARY: Uranium has been enjoying a stealth bull market due to the coronavirus outbreak. Temporary mine closures to slow the spread of the virus at production facilities have triggered an unexpected supply squeeze, sending the price of uranium up nearly 30% since the beginning of March. According to one analyst, half of global production has been cut. With the supply/demand balance moving in favor of miners, the outlook for uranium stocks is the brightest it has been in years.

Monday, April 27, 2020

How Will You Play the Precious Metals Stocks Bull Market ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

There are as many ways to play the PM sector as there are investors. Some will only buy the big cap PM stocks for safety. Others will only buy the mid cap producers. Some will only buy a mix of big caps and mid cap producers. And then there are the PM stock investors that will only play the juniors. Each has its own advantage depending on your risk tolerance. Some of you are wondering why is Rambus’s portfolio structured like it is with hardly any big caps?

After a great run during the tech bull market that ended in 2000 I was able to basically retire and build our dream home. After that bull market ended I was left looking for another area in which to invest. It wasn’t until early 2002 that I saw a chart for gold which was showing a very large base that caught my attention. Whenever I see a big base I have to study it more to see what is behind the price action. The more I looked, it became apparent to me, that a new bull market may be starting to form in the PM complex.

Monday, April 27, 2020

Gold Price on the Cusp of Reaching $2,100 - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Chris Vermeulen, CEO & Founder of Technical Traders Ltd., joins Tom Bodrovics at Palisade Radio to discuss the markets and Chris says, “This is the time to really be paying attention to the markets… It could be a bloodbath.”

Chris is seeing uncertainty that could bring equities lower as money is flowing into safe havens. The charts are showing that markets are approaching a major inflection point, which could go either way. Both gold and silver should rise rapidly once they get past resistance.

Time Stamp References: 0:45 – Equities and safe havens. 2:00 – Market weakness – bear rally? 4:45 – Charts show a coming inflection point. 9:20 – Charts testing support on gold. 10:20 – Silvers chart is still ugly. 12:15 – What happened in oil? 20:00 – Equities may top and rollover.