Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, May 22, 2020

Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

To be bullish or not to be – that is the question. Or it might have been the question, if someone named Shakespeare wrote a piece titled Investhamlet.

The choice whether to be bullish or bearish or neutral on a given asset should be made each day, each time based on the information that is currently available. Let’s check the new signs that we saw yesterday.

Thursday, May 21, 2020

Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This week has been a wild and emotional one and it’s just started!

With Monday’s big pop in the stock indexes, the big rally was based on vaccine news and bullish comments from the fed, convincing most traders and investors to be overly bullish this week.

My volume flow indicator showed a reading of 10 all day yesterday, which means ten shares were being bought on the NYSE at the ask, to everyone share being sold at the bid. Any reading over 3 is considered bearish short term, so ten was extreme. After the pop on Monday, stocks/indices closed lower by 1-2% on the session respectively the following session.

I have reiterated over and over, big moves (and gaps) in the price in the stock indexes that occur from the news are generally given back within a few days. This is still what I feel is going to happen in the coming days, albeit the last hour on Tuesday may have started that retracement.

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

In my previous article, I’ve written about how important US dollar movements are for future Silver prices. The chances of a significant Silver rally during US dollar strength is very low; and it is very high during US dollar decline.

The structure of the Silver bull market since 2001 has a lot in common with that of the 70s bull market. However, one of the important differences pertains to US dollar movements.

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

WARNING: Shady “Rare” Gold and Silver Coin Dealers Are Circling Like Vultures / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Nervous investors have been pouring into the gold and silver markets over the past two months.

Money Metals Exchange is proud to have helped almost 20,000 new customers with a precious metals purchase in recent weeks, many of whom came over from other dealers struggling with inventory shortages and ridiculous delivery delays.

A new wave of investors is getting the message; the Federal Reserve will never stop printing currency units and punishing savers with lower interest rates, Congress will never put deficits under control, and the government-terminated U.S. economy may not recover for years.

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To / Commodities / Palladium

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Whenever one hears the words precious metals, gold and silver spring to mind. But this world is much richer, and precious metals don’t end with the yellow or white metal. The less well known cousins, platinum and palladium, can and do send valuable signals too. Before we examine silver, let’s take a look at something interesting in palladium.

The interesting detail is palladium’s weakness. This precious metal was the one that soared most profoundly in the past few years and while it recovered some of its 2020 declines recently, it appears to be back in the bearish mode as its unable to keep gained ground, even despite the move higher in the general stock market.

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

It’s Make Or Break For the Crude Oil Bulls / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Just like the precious metals market, black gold ended the previous week with a sizable upswing. The rally continued in the early Monday trading, as crude oil moved decisively above its previous April highs.

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

So here we are, with the sector leading the recovery out of the March crash during still-deflationary times. Inflation? It is not yet anywhere to be found, and that probably has a lot of inflation-centric would-be gold boosters on the sidelines. Someday, when these ladies are in full cheer with inflation signals rising, it will be time for caution.

Meanwhile, for years we have stuck to the real fundamental backdrop that would produce a real bull market in the gold stock sector (ref. the 2001 and Q4 2008 time frames).

Our handy ‘Macrocosm’ generally shows the most important considerations as the larger planets and the least important as the smaller ones. As the gold stock bull market starts to gain attention beyond we gold lunatics and enters the mainstream, I thought I would update each component of the Macrocosm.

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Jason_Hamlin

The gold price made a new 2020 high today and looks poised to take out the nominal all-time high around $1,920 and then challenge $2,000 in the months ahead. Some are even estimating that gold could climb to $3,000 by year-end on account of the nearly $10 trillion in new money/debt/stimulus that is being created in the US alone to fight the pandemic.

This 2020 gold price target of $3,000 is a little too aggressive in my view, but I would not be surprised if gold reaches this level at some point over the next few years. Indeed, there seems to be no limit to the amount of new money the FED is willing to create and the government is willing to hand out in order to keep things afloat.

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Precious metals have been on our radar for many months and, if you’ve been paying attention, you probably already know our research suggests Gold and Silver are one of the best investments you can make right now.  Recently, we shared this article suggesting Gold would need to rally above our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc (GREEN Arc) level near $1745 before it would attempt a bigger upside price move.  Additionally, just a few days ago we published this article suggesting Silver would begin to rally even faster than gold.

Today, both Gold and Silver are making bigger upside price moves with Silver up over 3% while Gold is up 1.3%.  We believe this nearly 250% faster Silver advance may be the start of what we have been predicting for many months – an incredible parabolic upside price advance in BOTH Gold and Silver.

Earlier research by our team suggested that a set up would happen in Precious Metals where Silver began advancing much faster than Gold and that this move would likely prompt a downside move in the Gold to Silver Ratio targeting the 50 to 65 level.  Our earlier research suggests when this move/setup begins, we could begin to experience a nearly 250% to 350% rally in gold, targeting $3750 or higher, and a 550% to 650% rally in Silver, targeting over $70, over a 12+ month span of time.  This article, today, is alerting our readers that we believe this SETUP is happening right now and the upside rally in precious metals should begin to really accelerate over the next 5+ months.

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason (Money Metals Exchange): It is my privilege now to interview our good friend, Greg Weldon, CEO and President of Weldon Financial. Greg has decades of market research and trading experience specializing in the metals and commodity markets and he even authored a book back in 2006 titled Gold Trading Boot Camp where we accurately predicted the implosion of the U.S. credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce. He's made some fantastic calls over the last few years here on our podcast and it's great to have him back with us.

We did speak to you back at the end of February before all this madness started. At the time, COVID-19 had begun seriously impacting economic activity in global markets, maybe not so much in the U.S. Now, just two months later, more than 30 million people have filed for unemployment, GDP was deeply negative in the first quarter and figures to be even worse here in Q2. But the equity markets are acting as if the worst is behind us. We got a major correction followed by an almost relentless rally. Our take is that equity markets are completely disconnected from reality. They are hitched, instead, to the Fed's magic money machine. What is your take on how stock markets are behaving here, Greg?

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Is Crude Oil On the Way Up Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil soared higher yesterday and also in today’s pre-market trading, which shows you why it was a good idea to remain cautious yesterday, even despite crude oil’s breakdown below the rising support line.

Monday, May 18, 2020

Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners’ stocks have rallied dramatically out of mid-March’s stock-panic lows, soaring to new bull-market highs.  Their just-reported Q1’20 operational and financial results reveal whether today’s higher gold-stock prices are fundamentally justified.  They also illuminate whether this gold-stock upleg is likely to continue powering higher, despite the catastrophic economic damage from governments’ lockdowns.

With officials around the world waging a scorched-earth war against this COVID-19 pandemic, the gold miners’ latest quarterly results are more important than ever.  While this earnings season covered Q1’20, most gold companies didn’t release their quarterly reports until the last couple weeks.  In them they had to disclose the ongoing impact of governments’ COVID-19 lockdowns current to those quarterlies’ release dates.

US securities regulations require American companies to report quarterly results by 40 calendar days after quarter-ends, a deadline that just passed this week.  In Canada where the majority of the world’s gold stocks trade, that deadline is looser at 45 days.  Unfortunately this year Canadian companies were granted the ability to extend their reporting by an additional 45 days to help cope with COVID-19’s impacts.

Sunday, May 17, 2020

Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Powell gave a much-awaited speech yesterday, in which he sent one bearish and two bullish messages for gold. What exactly did he say and what does it mean for the yellow metal?

Powell Sends One Bearish and Two Bullish Messages for Gold
Jerome Powell gave a speech yesterday at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The Fed Chair acknowledged the unprecedented depth of the coronavirus crisis, and its disastrous impact for the US labor market, something we also noted many times:

Friday, May 15, 2020

Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The precious metals market did almost nothing yesterday, and consequently we have relatively little to comment on today. There are two subtly bearish signs that we would like to feature, nonetheless.

The first subtly bearish sign is the change in the way the USD Index “topped” this month. In early April, and then in late April, the USDX reversed close to the 101 level and then moved lower in a decisive way, until declining below 99. This time has already proved to be different.

Friday, May 15, 2020

Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical expert Clive Maund explains why he believes gold and silver are powering up for a stratospheric advance.

The deflation and depression is right here, right now, and if you don't believe that, try asking some of the 30 million people who just lost their jobs in the U.S., or those who (used to) work in the catering and tourism industries.

The Federal Reserve is reacting to this situation by working to create hyperinflation, because it finds it preferable to a deflationary implosion. There are two reasons for this. One is that it enables the Fed to continue to fulfill its time-honored role, which is to transfer wealth from the rest of society to the 1%, and the other is it defers complete systemic collapse for a little longer.

The Fed has created a staggering amount of new money since this crisis started a few months ago to feed the debt monster. Its balance sheet has gone exponential and is expanding vertically, guaranteeing hyperinflation, which will begin the moment the velocity of money starts to pick up. Currently there is no velocity of money because the economy is dead, but if you print enough money to throw at it, as in countless trillions, you can get things moving again.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund explains why he's bullish on silver. The way you see silver now depends on whether you see a glass that is half empty or half full. If you are a pessimist by nature you will be grumbling about its underperformance relative to gold up to this point, but if you are an optimist, as we certainly are with regards to silver, you will see it as maintaining the opportunity to pick it up cheap before it really takes off higher in a big way, which as we will now proceed to see is a fast growing probability.

We have been wary of silver and silver investments in the recent past with good reason, because if another deflationary downwave hit, silver was in position to get really beaten back down into the dust, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. After being smashed in March when the stock market tanked, it staged a recovery, but started looking decidedly timorous as it approached a zone of heavy resistance in April and its unfavorably aligned moving averages. It was set up to take another severe beating in the event of the stock market tipping into another downwave, especially as it has been forced gradually lower by its falling 50-day moving average over the past several weeks.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

April job report shows a terrible US labor market. Coronavirus destroyed 20.5 million jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to almost 15 percent. How far does the number reflect reality – and what does it actually mean for the gold market?

Apocalypse in the US Labor Market
14.7 percent. Remember this value well, as it will go down in history. This is the official US unemployment rate for April calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate soared from 3.5 percent in February and 4.4 percent in March. As the chart below shows, the spike is really historic, as such high level has not been seen in modern history.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

The US Dollar or Silver: Place Your Bet / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Over the last 50 years there have virtually been no significant Silver rallies during a period when the US Dollar index has been rising.

If you are betting on a massive Silver rally while US dollar strength continues, then you have a very low probability of success. Similarly, if you bet on a massive Silver rally while the US dollar continues a long decline, then you have a great chance of success.

So, for the Silver investor, what the US Dollar index might do over the coming years, is a very important question to answer. No surprise here, since the US dollar has been 100% debased (of Silver).

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The recent volatility in most markets was really extreme, which means that it was easy to lose focus on the things that matter the most in case of the gold market. It was relatively easy to keep one’s focus as far as the fundamental outlook for gold is concerned – it’s quite obvious that the economies around the world are in deep trouble and that the various QEs and money-printing mechanisms are likely to be inflationary, which together is likely to result in stagflation – which gold loves.

On the other hand, it was easy to lose focus with regard to one of gold’s key short- and medium-term drivers – the USD Index. If the USD Index soars, then gold is likely to plunge in the short run, regardless of how favorable other fundamentals are.

Consequently, in today’s free article, we’ll discuss the situation in the USD Index, with emphasis on two key similarities.

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Michael_J_Kosares

What it cannot do is cure the virus.  What it could do, however, according to a good many analysts, is act as an effective hedge against its economic consequences. Since the beginning of the year through April, the metal was up 11.73% during probably the worst period in economic history since the 1930s Great Depression. Below we chronicle what top experts have to say about gold in the year of the pandemic – its portfolio role, its qualities as a disaster hedge, and its price potential.