Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Rising Geopolitical Tensions Ignite Fire Under Gold and Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jason_Hamlin

Geopolitical tensions have lit a fire under gold and silver prices. A confluence of factors has finally pushed gold and silver above key technical resistance levels. Gold hit a 5-month high, rising over $20 (1.5%) to $1,275. It is the highest print for gold since the election of Trump. Silver also rocketed higher, climbing more than 40 cents (2.2%) to $18.35.

But it was not just the magnitude of the move higher that is important. Gold finally broke through the $1,260 price level, which was previous resistance and the 200-day moving average, to make a new 2017 high. We would like to see at least one more day of gold holding above this price level, but the implications of this move are significant. The RSI momentum indicator is also pointed higher with room to run before becoming overbought.

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Charts courtesy of Jack ChanTrump's Missile Strike on Syria and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts gold's movements following the U.S. missile attack on a Syrian airbase. In Britain in the old days there was a saying, which was "Buy on a strike." It had nothing to do with economics and everything to do with psychology. When a general strike by workers was declared, stock prices would have fallen up to the point at which the strike started, when the economic outlook would have been at its worst, but well before the strike ended they would actually start rising again, as investors perceived an eventual resolution of the problems. Thus, savvy investors who bought when things looked at their worst would have made the best of the situation.

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Gold's Outperformance and Huge Reversal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Several things happened on Friday and the markets reacted to them, so it's not easy to interpret the final outcome. Was the reversal bearish or was the session bullish as gold didn't decline substantially even though the USD rallied? Was gold's reaction adequate, too small or too big?

Let's start the discussion with a reminder of one of the reasons for Friday's pre-market rally. In Friday's Gold Trading Alert, we wrote the following:

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Bank of England Rigging LIBOR – Gold Market Too? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Bank of England implicated in LIBOR scandal by BBC

– “We’ve had some very serious pressure from the UK government and the Bank of England about pushing our Libors lower.”

– “This goes much much higher than me” -UBS’ Tom Hayes

– Libor distraction as all markets are manipulated today

–  Central bank’s “rigging” bond markets and likely gold

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Latest Developments in the Gold and Silver Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest developments in the gold and silver markets, including an all-time high in speculation in silver.

Saturday, April 08, 2017

Gold Price and Gaps / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

irst, let me say that a new high by Gold in week 16 of this current Intermediate Cycle is an extremely positive development as we now have a setup that should ensure that Gold has a Right Translated cycle that makes a higher Intermediate Low than the December 2016 YCL. Should this play out to Cycle norms, the next Intermediate Low will be an excellent buying opportunity regardless if you are adding to positions or restocking the shelf. My current expectation is that the next IC Low will be in the May/June timeframe with May being a strong possibility.

Saturday, April 08, 2017

Bearish Reversal in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Precious metals ended a quiet week with quite a reversal. Gold surged above its 200-day moving average for the first time since November, only to lose the gains and then close below the 200-day moving average. Silver was already trading above its 200-day moving average before it moved higher but it then reversed strongly and even below its 200-day moving average. The miners, which have been much weaker than the metals were mostly unchanged but after opening higher. Today’s bearish reversal could signal an imminent decline in the entire complex or just signal that more time is needed before the next attempt at a breakout.

Saturday, April 08, 2017

Gold Stock Breakouts Near / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold-mining stocks’ usual volatility has proven outsized so far this year, spooking investors.  A fast initial surge in a new upleg was soon fully reversed by a sharp major correction, which spawned much bearish sentiment.  That combined with the great distraction from the Trumphoria stock-market rally has left gold stocks unloved and overlooked.  But their outlook is very bullish, and major upside breakouts near.

It’s hard to find bargains in today’s extreme stock markets.  They’ve been radically distorted by the post-election euphoria centered on universal hopes for big tax cuts soon.  Nearly every sector has been bid up to dizzying valuations.  Except gold stocks, which everyone still hates.  They may very well be the last remaining contrarian sector in these crazy markets, and thus a great buying opportunity for smart traders.

Saturday, April 08, 2017

Gold - Is .0006th Of An Oz Of Significant Enough To Call The Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Michael_Noonan

Yes.

.0006th of an ounce of gold = 80 cents, at $1250 the oz. How can 80 cents be significant relative to gold at that price? It is a tiny gap in price that was never filled. The probability of December 2015 being the end of the downside correction since the 2011 highs grows with each passing week/month. As our regular readers know, our focus is solely on developing market activity as determined by price and volume over time. We pay attention to what the market is saying about its participants and not what others are saying about the market.

Friday, April 07, 2017

Gold Standard Challenges / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Scattered recent analysis has centered upon the Gold Standard and its viability within the global financial system. The topic is certainly very blurred and at times confusing. Consider a recent article by a competent analyst Charles Hugh Smith of the site OfTwoMinds on the practicality of gold used as a standard. The article is entitled “The Problem With Gold-Backed Currencies” (which is found HERE and also on Lew Rockwell site HERE). He makes several points, many good ones. In the Jackass opinion, his analysis avoids many potential solution features, is premature on focus of the currency (and not trade), and is unfortunately backwards in the logic. The main criticism to put on the work is that he confuses the extreme difficulties created from decades of fiat currencies, with the supposed problems of installation of gold-backed currency. The entire article is not well developed, seems sketchy, and misses numerous very important features which are being considered. He does put many critical issues on the table, valuable for discussion. He offers no solution to his stated problems. In modern parlance, the logic put forth would indicate that since a heroin addict has so much difficulty with kicking the deadly habit, ravaged by delirious tremens, beset by extreme health problems, that one should conclude movement toward a clean sober life would have problems and simply would not work. Thus the backwards logic. Unfortunately, CHSmith produces straw dogs in the face of absent solutions. Let us examine the points made.

Friday, April 07, 2017

Gold, Silver and Oil Spike After U.S. Bombs Syria / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Gold silver oil spike after U.S. bombs Syria
– Gold and silver spike 1% as oil rises 1.4%
– Gold breaks 200 day moving average, 4th week of gains
– Stocks fall after U.S. strikes in Syria rattle markets 
– U.S. missiles hit airbase; Lavrov says no Russian casualties; Russia deploys cruise missile frigate to Syria

Friday, April 07, 2017

Gold Market in Q1 and the Outlook for 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold performed really well in the first quarter of 2017. As the chart below shows, the rally started at the end of December 2016. The yellow metal bottomed at $1,125.7 on December 20, just a few days after the FOMC meeting and the second interest rate hike for almost a decade. Since then, the shiny metal gained about 11 percent.

Friday, April 07, 2017

NG #F (Natural Gas) Rally is Not Over Yet / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

NG #F (Natural Gas) has been rallying since forming a low on 2/22 (2.523). Rally is unfolding as a WXY or double three Elliott Wave Structure where wave W completed at 3.089 and wave X completed at 2.882. Up from red X low, Natural Gas is showing 5 swings up which means the sequence is incomplete and while above black ((x)) low at 3.121, rally should continue higher towards 3.452 – 3.587 to complete 7 swings sequence from red X low. This would also complete a WXY structure from 2.523 low and then we should see a 3 wave pull back in NG #F either to correct the cycle from 2.523 low or at least from red X low.

Thursday, April 06, 2017

Buy Precious, Sell Base (Metals). . . / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger explains why he believes base metals are overbought and precious metals, especially silver, are set to appreciate.

As the debate rages on and on and on concerning the global economic expansion (U.S.)/recovery (Eurozone)/Ponzi (China/U.K.), I am beginning to feel like a tennis ball in the heated heart of the 1981 McEnroe/Borg Wimbledon final being batted back and forth over the proverbial "Net" of Indecision, Confusion and Fear.

Thursday, April 06, 2017

Gold and Silver Boom or Bust? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Hubert_Moolman

Gold and silver prices are at a critical point. It appears that we will see massive price movements up or down, soon. Conditions are very similar to that of the early 80s (circa 1983), for example, when the Dow had just made a significant breakout, after a 17-year consolidation. See below, a long term chart for the Dow (generated at tradingview.com):

Wednesday, April 05, 2017

When Will Russia Run Out Of Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

On a global level, 2015 and 2016 marked the lowest level of new conventional oil discoveries since 1952. In 2016, only 3.7 billion barrels of conventional oil were discovered, roughly 45 days of global crude consumption or 0.2 percent of global proved reserves. Globally, exploratory drilling fell by almost 20 percent in 2015 and fell even further in 2016. Russia’s exploration activities, which were hit not only by plummeting oil prices but also by a targeted sanctions regime, suffered a double blow during this period. In 2015, only seven new hydrocarbon discoveries were made in Russia, three of them in the Baltic Sea. In 2016, oil and gas companies in Russia discovered 40 prospective fields, however, the 3P reserves of the largest among them, Rosneft’s Nertsetinskoye, amounted to 17.4 million tons. This stands in stark contrast with pre-sanction period achievements, for instance, 2014’s largest find, Pobeda, is believed to contain 130 million tons of oil and 0.5TCm of gas.

Wednesday, April 05, 2017

How Will Falling Oil Prices Impact on Climate Change? / Commodities / Climate Change

By: Submissions

The state of the oil market has remained a talking point for months now, after prices plummeted and supply lines increased for the third consecutive year in 2016. While the OPEC has finally taken action and attempted to broker separate deals between member and non-member nations, there remain some concerns that a lack of universal cooperation will ultimately doom these agreements to failure.

Tuesday, April 04, 2017

Negative Real Interest Rates to Drive Gold Price Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: John_Mauldin

At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25%. In doing so, it hiked rates for only the third time since 2006. However, in a strange turn of events, the Fed’s move was perceived as a dovish one by the markets.

That’s because even with inflation at its highest level since 2012, the Fed said monetary policy will remain accommodative “for some time.” As has been the case in the past, the Fed is willing to let inflation consolidate above its 2% target before embarking on a more aggressive tightening path.

Tuesday, April 04, 2017

What's Next for Crude Oil Stocks? / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Nadia_Simmons

Without a doubt, the previous week was the best week of 2017 for oil bulls. In that time, the black gold gained 5.48% and invalidated the earlier breakdown under the psychologically important barrier of $50. What happened at the same time with oil stocks? What's next for the XOI? Let's jump right into charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and find out what can we infer from them about future moves.

Let's start today's article with the long-term chart of oil stocks.

Tuesday, April 04, 2017

Gold Price 2017 - Jim Rickards and I Are on the Same Page / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Risks to the global economy was the main topic of the conversation between precious metals expert Jim Rickards and Lior Gantz, editor of Wealth Research Group.