Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Plungers Big Trade - The Oil Short / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Plunger

The big trade of this year positions oneself for the upcoming US recession. In speculating and investing if one can get the main concept right everything else falls into place. Various trades will branch off from this theme. The trade is not priced into the market at all since we are betting against the accepted narrative. We can use various proxies to play the trade, as just about anything economically sensitive may qualify. Base metal producers, car companies, sub prime financiers, retail establishments, the list goes on. The main vehicle I have chosen to execute the trade is the oil price. I have chosen this because both fundamentals and technicals indicate to me it is over priced and due for a fall. It trades deep and has a record of falling under distressed economic conditions.

"All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream." - Edger Allan Poe

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

What Bullish Sentiment Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ed_Carlson

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a reversal in the oil markets and outlines his strategy.

Monday, April 17, 2017

How Investors Can Buy Gold At A 6% Discount Today / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Stephen McBride : Since the election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 13% while the S&P 500 is up 11%. One victim of the move into risk assets was gold, which plunged over 13% in the weeks following the election.

Although gold prices have since recovered some of their losses, the yellow metal’s drop has created a buying opportunity for those wanting to add bullion to their portfolios.

Monday, April 17, 2017

History of the Post WWII Crude Oil Price From a Technical Perspective / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Plunger

This is part I of a 3-part series introducing Plunger's "Trade of the Year". This section gives a review of the oil price from 1946 to present explaining the essential forces which powered its price through various bull and bear markets. It explains how we ended up where we are today in the oil market. Part II will explore the macro forces driving today's economy which lays the groundwork for introducing my trade of the year in part III.

To acquire a broader view of oils path over the past century I highly recommend the following resources on the oil market. Daniel Yergin's "The Prize" is an in-depth review of the history of oil up to the First Gulf war. It is indispensable in understanding the growth of the industry. Other books provide entertaining color to the industry by reviewing the swashbuckling nature of the early players who formed the industry as independents. I recommend "The Big Rich" by Bryan Burrough and JP Getty's autobiography "The Way I See It". Finally, David Stockman's "The Great Deformation" is essential reading as it corrects all the false economic narratives of the past which have been masquerading as truth.

Friday, April 14, 2017

Supply Crunch Or Oil Glut: Investment Banks Can't Agree / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

In recent years, U.S. shale has thrown in another unknown in the mix of factors driving the price of oil. This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC's production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street's major investment banks.

The biggest banks remain bullish on oil prices, expecting moderate price gains by the end of the year, even after last month WTI prices dropped below $50 for a couple of weeks.

Friday, April 14, 2017

Gold Stocks Bull Upside Targets / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

The get-no-respect gold-stock sector is in a strong young bull market.  Past gold-stock bulls have grown to utterly-massive proportions before giving up their ghosts, greatly multiplying the wealth of contrarian investors and speculators.  Today’s gold-stock bull is very likely to grow vastly larger before fully running its course.  Fundamental gold-stock-bull upside targets reveal the lion’s share of gains are still yet to come.

A little over a year ago in January 2016, a monstrous gold-stock bear finally climaxed.  The gold miners’ stocks fell to fundamentally-absurd 13.5-year secular lows as measured by their leading index, the HUI NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index.  Out of those dark depths of despair, a new gold-stock bull was stealthily born.  And it soon started flexing its muscle, rocketing 182.2% higher in just 6.5 months by early August!

Friday, April 14, 2017

Trump’s Budget Plan and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

After a long wait, President has finally presented his budget blueprint “to make America great again”. Let’s analyze its possible impact on the gold market. First, we need to praise a 1.2 percent cut in discretionary spending, on balance. In particular, Trump wants to cut the budget of the Environmental Protection Agency by 31 percent, the budget of the Department of State and USAID by 29 percent, and both the budget of the Department of Labor and the Department of Agriculture by 21 percent. The table below summarizes the proposed changes in the allocation of discretionary budget funds.

Friday, April 14, 2017

Energy Market Volatility: What to Expect Next / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: EWI

Our Chief Energy Analyst talks about what he’s looking at across the energy markets

In this new interview with Steve Craig, the Editor of our Energy Pro Service, he explains that when looking across the energy complex, 2017 is playing out according to his Elliott wave script.

Thursday, April 13, 2017

Best Strategies To Survive A Financial Crisis In Your Home Country / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Stephen McBride : Praised be the 17^th-century Italian wisecrack who noted that you shouldn’t “keep all your eggs in one basket.” It’s still true today and just as applicable to life as to investing.

If you live and work in the US, bank in the US, invest with a US brokerage, and hold your savings in US dollars—your eggs could use some diversification.

Thursday, April 13, 2017

5 Events This Year That Could Spark The Next Gold Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Stephen McBride: Gold had a satisfying first quarter, rising 9% since the beginning of the year. While that can be considered a good start, five events sprinkled throughout 2017 could send it much higher.

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Gold Topping? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Gary_Savage

Chances are very good that gold has topped or will do so by early next week. What follows will be an intermediate degree correction.

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Gold Prices Surge Above Key 200 Day Moving Average $1270 Level / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Gold price breaks above key 200-day moving average
– Gold hits 5-month high on back of investor nervousness
– Safe haven has 10% gains in 2017 after 9% gains in 2016
– Gold options signal more gains as ETF buying increases

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Rising Geopolitical Tensions Ignite Fire Under Gold and Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jason_Hamlin

Geopolitical tensions have lit a fire under gold and silver prices. A confluence of factors has finally pushed gold and silver above key technical resistance levels. Gold hit a 5-month high, rising over $20 (1.5%) to $1,275. It is the highest print for gold since the election of Trump. Silver also rocketed higher, climbing more than 40 cents (2.2%) to $18.35.

But it was not just the magnitude of the move higher that is important. Gold finally broke through the $1,260 price level, which was previous resistance and the 200-day moving average, to make a new 2017 high. We would like to see at least one more day of gold holding above this price level, but the implications of this move are significant. The RSI momentum indicator is also pointed higher with room to run before becoming overbought.

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Charts courtesy of Jack ChanTrump's Missile Strike on Syria and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts gold's movements following the U.S. missile attack on a Syrian airbase. In Britain in the old days there was a saying, which was "Buy on a strike." It had nothing to do with economics and everything to do with psychology. When a general strike by workers was declared, stock prices would have fallen up to the point at which the strike started, when the economic outlook would have been at its worst, but well before the strike ended they would actually start rising again, as investors perceived an eventual resolution of the problems. Thus, savvy investors who bought when things looked at their worst would have made the best of the situation.

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Gold's Outperformance and Huge Reversal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Several things happened on Friday and the markets reacted to them, so it's not easy to interpret the final outcome. Was the reversal bearish or was the session bullish as gold didn't decline substantially even though the USD rallied? Was gold's reaction adequate, too small or too big?

Let's start the discussion with a reminder of one of the reasons for Friday's pre-market rally. In Friday's Gold Trading Alert, we wrote the following:

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Bank of England Rigging LIBOR – Gold Market Too? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Bank of England implicated in LIBOR scandal by BBC

– “We’ve had some very serious pressure from the UK government and the Bank of England about pushing our Libors lower.”

– “This goes much much higher than me” -UBS’ Tom Hayes

– Libor distraction as all markets are manipulated today

–  Central bank’s “rigging” bond markets and likely gold

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Latest Developments in the Gold and Silver Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest developments in the gold and silver markets, including an all-time high in speculation in silver.

Saturday, April 08, 2017

Gold Price and Gaps / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

irst, let me say that a new high by Gold in week 16 of this current Intermediate Cycle is an extremely positive development as we now have a setup that should ensure that Gold has a Right Translated cycle that makes a higher Intermediate Low than the December 2016 YCL. Should this play out to Cycle norms, the next Intermediate Low will be an excellent buying opportunity regardless if you are adding to positions or restocking the shelf. My current expectation is that the next IC Low will be in the May/June timeframe with May being a strong possibility.

Saturday, April 08, 2017

Bearish Reversal in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Precious metals ended a quiet week with quite a reversal. Gold surged above its 200-day moving average for the first time since November, only to lose the gains and then close below the 200-day moving average. Silver was already trading above its 200-day moving average before it moved higher but it then reversed strongly and even below its 200-day moving average. The miners, which have been much weaker than the metals were mostly unchanged but after opening higher. Today’s bearish reversal could signal an imminent decline in the entire complex or just signal that more time is needed before the next attempt at a breakout.

Saturday, April 08, 2017

Gold Stock Breakouts Near / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold-mining stocks’ usual volatility has proven outsized so far this year, spooking investors.  A fast initial surge in a new upleg was soon fully reversed by a sharp major correction, which spawned much bearish sentiment.  That combined with the great distraction from the Trumphoria stock-market rally has left gold stocks unloved and overlooked.  But their outlook is very bullish, and major upside breakouts near.

It’s hard to find bargains in today’s extreme stock markets.  They’ve been radically distorted by the post-election euphoria centered on universal hopes for big tax cuts soon.  Nearly every sector has been bid up to dizzying valuations.  Except gold stocks, which everyone still hates.  They may very well be the last remaining contrarian sector in these crazy markets, and thus a great buying opportunity for smart traders.