Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, April 07, 2017

Gold Market in Q1 and the Outlook for 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold performed really well in the first quarter of 2017. As the chart below shows, the rally started at the end of December 2016. The yellow metal bottomed at $1,125.7 on December 20, just a few days after the FOMC meeting and the second interest rate hike for almost a decade. Since then, the shiny metal gained about 11 percent.

Friday, April 07, 2017

NG #F (Natural Gas) Rally is Not Over Yet / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

NG #F (Natural Gas) has been rallying since forming a low on 2/22 (2.523). Rally is unfolding as a WXY or double three Elliott Wave Structure where wave W completed at 3.089 and wave X completed at 2.882. Up from red X low, Natural Gas is showing 5 swings up which means the sequence is incomplete and while above black ((x)) low at 3.121, rally should continue higher towards 3.452 – 3.587 to complete 7 swings sequence from red X low. This would also complete a WXY structure from 2.523 low and then we should see a 3 wave pull back in NG #F either to correct the cycle from 2.523 low or at least from red X low.

Thursday, April 06, 2017

Buy Precious, Sell Base (Metals). . . / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger explains why he believes base metals are overbought and precious metals, especially silver, are set to appreciate.

As the debate rages on and on and on concerning the global economic expansion (U.S.)/recovery (Eurozone)/Ponzi (China/U.K.), I am beginning to feel like a tennis ball in the heated heart of the 1981 McEnroe/Borg Wimbledon final being batted back and forth over the proverbial "Net" of Indecision, Confusion and Fear.

Thursday, April 06, 2017

Gold and Silver Boom or Bust? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Hubert_Moolman

Gold and silver prices are at a critical point. It appears that we will see massive price movements up or down, soon. Conditions are very similar to that of the early 80s (circa 1983), for example, when the Dow had just made a significant breakout, after a 17-year consolidation. See below, a long term chart for the Dow (generated at tradingview.com):

Wednesday, April 05, 2017

When Will Russia Run Out Of Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

On a global level, 2015 and 2016 marked the lowest level of new conventional oil discoveries since 1952. In 2016, only 3.7 billion barrels of conventional oil were discovered, roughly 45 days of global crude consumption or 0.2 percent of global proved reserves. Globally, exploratory drilling fell by almost 20 percent in 2015 and fell even further in 2016. Russia’s exploration activities, which were hit not only by plummeting oil prices but also by a targeted sanctions regime, suffered a double blow during this period. In 2015, only seven new hydrocarbon discoveries were made in Russia, three of them in the Baltic Sea. In 2016, oil and gas companies in Russia discovered 40 prospective fields, however, the 3P reserves of the largest among them, Rosneft’s Nertsetinskoye, amounted to 17.4 million tons. This stands in stark contrast with pre-sanction period achievements, for instance, 2014’s largest find, Pobeda, is believed to contain 130 million tons of oil and 0.5TCm of gas.

Wednesday, April 05, 2017

How Will Falling Oil Prices Impact on Climate Change? / Commodities / Climate Change

By: Submissions

The state of the oil market has remained a talking point for months now, after prices plummeted and supply lines increased for the third consecutive year in 2016. While the OPEC has finally taken action and attempted to broker separate deals between member and non-member nations, there remain some concerns that a lack of universal cooperation will ultimately doom these agreements to failure.

Tuesday, April 04, 2017

Negative Real Interest Rates to Drive Gold Price Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: John_Mauldin

At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25%. In doing so, it hiked rates for only the third time since 2006. However, in a strange turn of events, the Fed’s move was perceived as a dovish one by the markets.

That’s because even with inflation at its highest level since 2012, the Fed said monetary policy will remain accommodative “for some time.” As has been the case in the past, the Fed is willing to let inflation consolidate above its 2% target before embarking on a more aggressive tightening path.

Tuesday, April 04, 2017

What's Next for Crude Oil Stocks? / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Nadia_Simmons

Without a doubt, the previous week was the best week of 2017 for oil bulls. In that time, the black gold gained 5.48% and invalidated the earlier breakdown under the psychologically important barrier of $50. What happened at the same time with oil stocks? What's next for the XOI? Let's jump right into charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and find out what can we infer from them about future moves.

Let's start today's article with the long-term chart of oil stocks.

Tuesday, April 04, 2017

Gold Price 2017 - Jim Rickards and I Are on the Same Page / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Risks to the global economy was the main topic of the conversation between precious metals expert Jim Rickards and Lior Gantz, editor of Wealth Research Group.

Tuesday, April 04, 2017

Watch Gold And Silver Prices In April 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: InvestingHaven

Gold and silver prices were neutral last month. During the first two weeks of March, gold and silver retraced only to recover in the last two weeks of the month. Right now, both gold and silver are trading at the same levels as a month ago.

In February and March, particularly gold went through a very important series of tests.  Gold prices stood strong last month when the $1200 area was tested. That is when we came out and adviced to closely what gold’s major bear market test. The price of gold was only 8 pct away from a bull market.

Tuesday, April 04, 2017

Gold Danger Zone – Price Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Bob_Loukas

As the days and weeks continue to pass, gold is struggling to show us anything close to the strength seen during the 2016 rally.  And the more gold continues to perform in a lackluster manner, the more I begin to consider that 2016 strength as a bear market counter-rally.  If that were true, it would mean the action since the 2016 top is a continuation of the bear market that started in 2011!

Of course, gold has yet to fail in such a fashion, so there is still enough evidence to support the bear market ended over a year ago.  And if the equity markets are near the top of an eight year bull market, then we could expect gold to outperform (inversely correlated) in the coming years.  With the equity markets at fairly extreme levels, forecasting longer term, across varying asset classes, is difficult to do.  Therefore, for the time being it is best we appreciate just how difficult and extreme the current landscape, rather than trying to force any one specific viewpoint dogmatically.

Monday, April 03, 2017

Gold and Silver Market Weekly Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Monday, April 03, 2017

Gold and Silver Warning Signs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Precious metals closed the first quarter with solid gains. Gold gained almost 9% while Silver gained 14%. The miners (GDX and GDXJ) gained the same amounts (9% and 14%) but unlike the metals which closed at their highs of the quarter, ended up losing more than half their gains. Despite a strong quarter, the entire complex remains below the February highs and 200-day moving average (ex Silver)  just days after the US Dollar index rebounded strongly from its own 200-day moving average. As the second quarter begins, the warning signs for precious metals are mounting. 

Saturday, April 01, 2017

Irish Government To Issue FREE Gold Coin To Protect Citizens From Brexit’s Impact On Euro and EU / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Unprecedented move to see Irish government issue free gold coin to Irish citizens
– Controversy as Irish government plans for Irish people to own 1 ounce of gold
– Irish Finance Minister said the “little people” were exposed due to risks from Brexit and the end of the euro
– “Gold can be stored for a long time … doesn’t lose its value for the population as a means of savings”
– Politicians in Ireland criticise move as “too generous” to Irish Americans given Ireland still close to bankruptcy

Friday, March 31, 2017

Gold in Fed Interest Rate Hike Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold suffered heavy selling in early March leading into the Fed’s latest rate hike.  Speculators frantically dumped gold futures ahead of the Fed’s meeting as implied rate-hike odds soared.  This is nothing new.  This key group of traders has long feared Fed-rate-hike cycles, convinced they are the mortal nemesis of zero-yielding gold.  But this view is highly irrational, as history proves gold actually thrives in rate-hike cycles!

The Federal Reserve’s primary and dominant tool for setting monetary policy is its target for the federal-funds rate.  Commercial banks are required to maintain reserve balances at the Fed, with necessary levels fluctuating daily based on each bank’s underlying business activity.  So banks with surplus reserves can lend them on an overnight basis to other banks running deficits through the federal-funds market.

Friday, March 31, 2017

‘Three Wise Men’ Warn Next Crash Coming, Own Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

‘Three wise men’ are warning that the next financial crash is coming and that one of the ways to protect and grow wealth in the coming crash will be to own gold.

The men who have recently warned are Jim Rogers (video below), Martin Armstrong (blog below) and Tony Robbins (video below). Each come from somewhat different backgrounds and are respected experts in their respective fields.

Friday, March 31, 2017

Precious Metals Are in Alignment for a Major Ascent / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses silver's recent price performance and why he believes precious metals are in alignment for a major ascent.

"Every stock market bull out there whether in New York or London or Mumbai or Beijing is in a drunken myopia of elevated expectations and deviated denial scrambling and scratching and pleading for assurances that 'it is truly different this time.'"

Friday, March 31, 2017

There Is No Such Thing As Peak Oil Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Notwithstanding that oil demand has increased for over 150 years, it will eventually stop increasing. If oil demand were to reach an actual peak, then the top might be easier to predict. As it stands, the forecast models of demand are likely predicting peak demand far later than it will be.

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Brexit Gold Buying – UK Demand for Gold Bars Surges 39% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– UK investors buy gold bars as demand surges 39% in 2016
– Brexit Day sees Article 50 triggered and pound weakens
– “Brexit nerves” see “Brits hoard gold” reports WSJ
– End of 44 year relationship with closest economic partner
– May sets Brexit clock ticking in letter to Tusk

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Bitcoin Price Rises Higher Than Gold… But Its Value Is a Different Story / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: John_Mauldin

Since hitting a record-low of $177 in January 2015, Bitcoin is up almost 600%.

On March 2, 2017, it reached a new high of $1,268 per unit—thus surpassing the price of an ounce of gold for the first time ever.

So, what’s the driving force behind this parabolic rise?