Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Gold Breaking Below This Point Could Be Fatal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Harry_Dent
Shortly after gold fell to $1,046 in December 2015, I called for a bear market rally that ranged from $1,375 to $1,428.That low mark of $1,375 has been tested three times since without being able to break above.
That’s not a good sign…
Gold has been steadily down since the third test on April 11th.
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Thursday, July 12, 2018
Live Cattle Commodity Trading Analysis / Commodities / Livestock
By: Austin_Galt
Pattern – a downtrend is clearly in process while the action since 2017 looks corrective in nature. I believe this corrective phase still has a little more time left before the downtrend resumes.
Bollinger Bands – price has been finding resistance from the middle band but I favour price to overcome it shortly and head up to the upper band where the next lower high can form.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Gold’s & Silver’s Reversals’ Reversal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In yesterday’s analysis, we discussed how meaningful gold and silver’s pre-market decline was given a relatively small move in the USD Index. The implications were quite bearish for the PM market, especially that we had just seen a target being reached in gold stocks. And because mining stocks had just underperformed gold for the first time in weeks. Yet, before the day was over, the USD, gold and silver had all reversed and erased most of their daily moves. Does it make the outlook bullish again? Is gold still likely to reach $1,300 shortly?
No. The USD Index indeed reversed its course, but the precious metals’ initial reaction shows how vulnerable they are with regard to the rallies in the USD Index. This is not the kind of reaction that one wants to see when keeping a long position. It’s the one that is preferred while holding a short one.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Bullish Gold Markets in the Big Picture? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold markets and sees the potential for a new "bull leg."
Our proprietary cycle indicator is now up.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Crude Oil Possibly Setting Up For A Big Downside Move / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has identified a potential major price rotation setup in Crude Oil that may be one of the biggest opportunities for traders in a long while. Traders need to be aware of this potential move because it could coincide with other news related to foreign markets/economies as well as supply/demand issues throughout the rest of this year.
Demand for Oil is tied to the economic activities throughout much of the globe. When demand for Oil is high, one can perceive the global economy to be performing well and consumer demand for oil-based products rather high. When demand for oil subsidies, it is usually due to economic constraints as a result of slower consumer and industrial demand. The only time demand for oil typically skyrockets are when massive supply disruption takes place or war breaks out.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
BREAKING: New Tech Just Unlocked A Trillion Barrels Of Oil / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: OilPrice_Com
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
Gold Price Selling Exhausting / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has been afflicted by relentless selling over the past few weeks or so, forcing it to major lows. While summer-doldrums weakness is typical, gold’s recent drop is on the large side even for this time of year. It was fueled by truly-extreme short selling by gold-futures speculators, which is quickly exhausting. That is paving the way for gold’s major autumn rally to start marching higher any day now, a very-bullish omen.
A month ago when gold was still near $1300, I published my latest research on its summer doldrums. The first halves of market summers including Junes and early Julies have long tended to be the weakest times of the year seasonally for gold. They are simply devoid of the recurring seasonal demand surges gold enjoys during most of the rest of the year. With investors not interested in buying, gold languishes.
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
Trump’s Trade Wars Could Spark Global Flight to Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
President Donald Trump’s “America First” trade policies are upending decades of global arrangements and entanglements. Globalists are aghast that the leader of the free world is openly confrontational toward NAFTA, NATO, the European Union, United Nations, and World Trade Organization.
In rebuffing the global community by pursuing unilateral tariffs and vowing to win trade wars against both rivals and putative allies alike, Trump is playing a high stakes game. Trump’s trade wars could test the U.S. dollar’s status as world reserve currency.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
Crude Oil and Its Another Interesting Relationship / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Tuesday's unsuccessful attempt to break above upper borders of the rising trend channels cost oil bulls more than many buyers expected. Their weakness was quickly detected by therivals, who took control during yesterday's session. The effects of their attackare seen not only on the crude oil charts, because they also affected the pronunciation of our next interesting ratio. Is it possible that the relationship betweenblack gold and the general stock market will give us valuable tipson the future of light crude as it happened many times in the past?
Friday, July 06, 2018
Was That The Gold Price Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
First published Sun Jul 1 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Dealing with markets is more about psychology than it is about anything else. So, let’s begin this weekend’s analysis with a discussion of the psychology of the metals market.
There has been no trade more frustrating over the last several years than the metals. In fact, if you even remember back in 2015, the low we struck at the end of the year was at the completion of a year-long ending diagonal, which itself caused a great deal of frustration. So, to put this market action into perspective, within the last 42 months, we have spent approximately 32 of those months in overlapping and frustrating structures.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
The End of Quantitative Easing and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
June was hot for the central banks. The Federal Reserve lifted the federal funds rate for the second time this year, while the European Central Bank announced that it would end its bond purchase program by the end of 2018. It would mean another step towards normalization of the crisis-era monetary policy, which would end quantitative easing on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. What do these important developments imply for the gold market?
On June the 13th, the Fed raised interest rates for another 25 basis points. It was the second hike in 2018 and the seventh in this tightening cycle. The move was widely expected, so it did not shake the markets. However, the Fed’s statement was more hawkish than anticipated, as the U.S. central bank suggested two more rate hikes this year.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
HUI Gold Stocks Critical Juncture / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
The HUI along with most of the other PM stock indexes are at a critical point right here and now. Below is a combo chart we’ve following which has the UUP (The US Dollar Index ETF) on top and the HUI on the bottom. The UUP is building out a potential morphing bullish rising wedge consolidation pattern which would most likely give the PM complex some headwind if the price action breaks out top side. On the other hand if the rising wedge breaks down then the PM complex should have a strong tailwind at their backs. If the HUI can breakout above the top rail of its descending triangle that would be very bullish for the PM complex. As you can see the HUI and the UUP are trading at a critical inflection point right here.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
Gold And Silver Precious Metals Price Outlook: Buy Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger details his forecast for precious metals markets in the second half of 2018. Given the impressive reversal in gold last Monday, which appeared to occur during the Asian and European trading sessions as opposed to the Crimex pit session, it looks like the precious metals are adhering to the well-broadcasted seasonality trade that has been fraught with random, rather than dependable, trading results, especially in the last four years. 2014 and 2016 had poor second-half performances, while 2015 and 2017 were marginally positive. What is reliable is that gold purchases in July have a greater chance for a successful trading outcome than any other month of the year, assuming, of course, that you took profits when gold popped in one of the following five months.
Wednesday, July 04, 2018
Bearish Sentiment Can Only Take Gold so Far / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Despite its lack of bullish fundamentals and the poor price action, Gold is now technically oversold and has reached strong support with sentiment approaching potentially extreme levels. The conditions are in place for a rally. That being said, bearish sentiment by itself is not enough to push Gold beyond a relief rally.
While the combination of the net speculative position (CoT) and daily sentiment index (DSI) was near its lowest point at the end of 2015, Gold enjoyed its best gains then because its fundamentals turned and remained bullish. Real interest rates declined as the Fed, after its December 2015 hike, did not hike for another 12 months despite a pickup in inflation.
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Tuesday, July 03, 2018
Gold Price Probable Short-term Bounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Gold and silver have been getting crushed recently along with emerging market stocks.
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Tuesday, July 03, 2018
What Does the Loonie Have to Do with Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Jack Chan's updated charts for the precious metals markets include a look at how the Canadian dollar relates to gold and silver prices.
Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.
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Tuesday, July 03, 2018
Crude Oil – Precious Metals Link and Its Implications / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In recent days, oil bulls have accustomed us to fresh peaks. However, when we look more closely at the volume, their actions lose some of the glow. When we add the picture, which emerges from the relationship between crude oil and precious metals, doubts about the strength of the rally are getting even bigger. Is it possible that this interesting link tells us more about the future of black gold?
Tuesday, July 03, 2018
Silver Bull Market Is Almost Here / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Hubert_Moolman
Silver is running out of time and space (on the chart) to decide where it will go over the next months and years. The similarity of conditions to the early 80s suggests that silver could go into a multi-year bear market or continue its bull market:
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Monday, July 02, 2018
Gold Moving Toward a Reset / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss the fundamentals behind gold and the markets. Gold is the ultimate safe haven, for two simple reasons. First, its total aboveground supply only grows 1.4% per year, no matter what anyone does (and even this rate of increase is starting to fall as production levels have peaked). Second, gold is final settlement for the payment of obligations; it is universally accepted as itself, in physical form, not needing to be translated into someone else's currency.
In the current financial asset mania, with confidence in markets and central banks very high, markets are not much interested in safe havens and gold has been languishing. When investors become more risk averse, gold will go on its next big run. Current sentiment and market positioning correspond to what is typically a price low historically.
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Monday, July 02, 2018
CRB Commodity Index Chart Analysis Trend Forecast / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Austin_Galt
Pattern – price has been in a downtrend since the 2011 high and the current price action looks corrective in nature. An ABC correction looks to be playing out with price still to put in a wave C high.
Bollinger Bands – price is back at the middle band and I am looking for support to kick in here.