Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, July 17, 2018
What Did Crude Oil - Platinum Link Tell Us Last Week? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
The first session of this week was undoubtedly dominated by the sellers. Thanks to their sharp attack, black gold lost over 4%, making oil bears’ short positions even more profitable. Will it still be possible to earn money on crude oil in the coming week?
Let’s examine the charts below to find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Gold And The Elusive Chase For Profits / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Kelsey_Williams
Between the years 1971 and 2011, the price of gold went from $42.00 per ounce to $1900.00 per ounce – a forty-five fold increase. This is depicted on the chart below…
Looking at the chart, it would appear that gold is in a long-term bull market and that continually higher prices over time can be expected. Proponents of this approach to gold cite fundamentals such as a weakening U.S. dollar, social unrest, wars (combat and trade), political instability, etc.
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Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Crude Oil May Not Find Support Above $60 This Time / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Crude Oil has been a major play for some traders over the past few months. With price, rotation ranges near $5~$7 and upside pressure driving a price assent from below $45 to nearly $75 peaks. This upside price move has been tremendous.
Over the past few weeks, many things have changed in the fundamentals of the Oil market. Supply continues to outpace demand, trade tariffs and slowing global economies are now starting to become real concerns, foreign suppliers have continued to increase production, US Dollar continues to strengthen and social/political unrest is starting to become more evident in many foreign nations.
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Monday, July 16, 2018
How Crazy It Is to Short Gold with RSI Close to 30 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Aiming to make money on gold price’s decline is always controversial. The long-term fundamentals remain favorable and gold and silver are likely to exceed their previous highs in the coming years. True, but that doesn’t mean that both metals can’t move even lower in the next several weeks or even months. Different factors govern more short-term-oriented trades as markets are emotional, not logical in the near term.
One of the popular techniques that is used to detect good entry and exit prices for gold is the RSI indicator and the most popular way to use it is to buy when RSI moves to 30 and sell when RSI reaches 70.
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Monday, July 16, 2018
Gold Bears Are Roaring Louder / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun.
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Saturday, July 14, 2018
Gold Stocks Summer Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have been drifting sideways to lower like usual in their summer doldrums. They are likely near their major seasonal lows ahead of a strong autumn rally, a great buying opportunity. Gold rebounding higher will be the primary driver fueling the gold-stock advance, dispelling today’s bearish psychology. And strong Q2 production growth will likely play a sizable role in restoring favorable sentiment.
Market summers have long been gold’s weakest time of the year seasonally. Junes and early Julies in particular are simply devoid of the big recurring demand spikes seen during most of the rest of the year. With traders vacationing to take advantage of warm sunshine and kids being out of school, markets take a back seat. So there’s no outsized gold buying driven by income-cycle or cultural factors this time of year.
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Friday, July 13, 2018
Gold Standard Requirements & Currency Crisis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The United States has three requirements in returning to the Gold Standard. They will be extremely difficult to achieve. They each serve as essential requirements in a criterion. All three are urgently needed. The challenge is formidable for the nation to remain as a leading player in the global economy. The United States stands alone in volume of national debt. Many place the blame on the social net like welfare, Social Security, and other measures. However, the biggest element is clearly the military budget, hardly for defense in the last two decades. As CEO Jack Ma of Alibaba stated so succinctly, the USGovt has spent $25 trillion on the military with nothing to show for it except decayed infra-structure and global animosity for its aggression. A major item in recent years for the deficits has been Medicare, which is full of fraud and waste. Another major item is the raft of pensions like for government service, judicial service, and military service.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Is the Relative Strength in Gold Miners to Gold Price Significant? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
It has been a tough spring and summer for precious metals. Gold failed to breakout when it had the chance and it closed the second quarter in ominous and weak fashion. It was the lowest monthly close in more than a year. Silver has performed better but only because it has not declined to the degree Gold has. The one technical positive for the sector is the positive divergence in the miners. They did not make new lows in the second quarter. That is encouraging but only time will tell us how sustainable and significant that might be.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Gold Breaking Below This Point Could Be Fatal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Harry_Dent
Shortly after gold fell to $1,046 in December 2015, I called for a bear market rally that ranged from $1,375 to $1,428.That low mark of $1,375 has been tested three times since without being able to break above.
That’s not a good sign…
Gold has been steadily down since the third test on April 11th.
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Thursday, July 12, 2018
Live Cattle Commodity Trading Analysis / Commodities / Livestock
By: Austin_Galt
Pattern – a downtrend is clearly in process while the action since 2017 looks corrective in nature. I believe this corrective phase still has a little more time left before the downtrend resumes.
Bollinger Bands – price has been finding resistance from the middle band but I favour price to overcome it shortly and head up to the upper band where the next lower high can form.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Gold’s & Silver’s Reversals’ Reversal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In yesterday’s analysis, we discussed how meaningful gold and silver’s pre-market decline was given a relatively small move in the USD Index. The implications were quite bearish for the PM market, especially that we had just seen a target being reached in gold stocks. And because mining stocks had just underperformed gold for the first time in weeks. Yet, before the day was over, the USD, gold and silver had all reversed and erased most of their daily moves. Does it make the outlook bullish again? Is gold still likely to reach $1,300 shortly?
No. The USD Index indeed reversed its course, but the precious metals’ initial reaction shows how vulnerable they are with regard to the rallies in the USD Index. This is not the kind of reaction that one wants to see when keeping a long position. It’s the one that is preferred while holding a short one.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Bullish Gold Markets in the Big Picture? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold markets and sees the potential for a new "bull leg."
Our proprietary cycle indicator is now up.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Crude Oil Possibly Setting Up For A Big Downside Move / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has identified a potential major price rotation setup in Crude Oil that may be one of the biggest opportunities for traders in a long while. Traders need to be aware of this potential move because it could coincide with other news related to foreign markets/economies as well as supply/demand issues throughout the rest of this year.
Demand for Oil is tied to the economic activities throughout much of the globe. When demand for Oil is high, one can perceive the global economy to be performing well and consumer demand for oil-based products rather high. When demand for oil subsidies, it is usually due to economic constraints as a result of slower consumer and industrial demand. The only time demand for oil typically skyrockets are when massive supply disruption takes place or war breaks out.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
BREAKING: New Tech Just Unlocked A Trillion Barrels Of Oil / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: OilPrice_Com
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
Gold Price Selling Exhausting / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has been afflicted by relentless selling over the past few weeks or so, forcing it to major lows. While summer-doldrums weakness is typical, gold’s recent drop is on the large side even for this time of year. It was fueled by truly-extreme short selling by gold-futures speculators, which is quickly exhausting. That is paving the way for gold’s major autumn rally to start marching higher any day now, a very-bullish omen.
A month ago when gold was still near $1300, I published my latest research on its summer doldrums. The first halves of market summers including Junes and early Julies have long tended to be the weakest times of the year seasonally for gold. They are simply devoid of the recurring seasonal demand surges gold enjoys during most of the rest of the year. With investors not interested in buying, gold languishes.
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
Trump’s Trade Wars Could Spark Global Flight to Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
President Donald Trump’s “America First” trade policies are upending decades of global arrangements and entanglements. Globalists are aghast that the leader of the free world is openly confrontational toward NAFTA, NATO, the European Union, United Nations, and World Trade Organization.
In rebuffing the global community by pursuing unilateral tariffs and vowing to win trade wars against both rivals and putative allies alike, Trump is playing a high stakes game. Trump’s trade wars could test the U.S. dollar’s status as world reserve currency.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
Crude Oil and Its Another Interesting Relationship / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Tuesday's unsuccessful attempt to break above upper borders of the rising trend channels cost oil bulls more than many buyers expected. Their weakness was quickly detected by therivals, who took control during yesterday's session. The effects of their attackare seen not only on the crude oil charts, because they also affected the pronunciation of our next interesting ratio. Is it possible that the relationship betweenblack gold and the general stock market will give us valuable tipson the future of light crude as it happened many times in the past?
Friday, July 06, 2018
Was That The Gold Price Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
First published Sun Jul 1 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Dealing with markets is more about psychology than it is about anything else. So, let’s begin this weekend’s analysis with a discussion of the psychology of the metals market.
There has been no trade more frustrating over the last several years than the metals. In fact, if you even remember back in 2015, the low we struck at the end of the year was at the completion of a year-long ending diagonal, which itself caused a great deal of frustration. So, to put this market action into perspective, within the last 42 months, we have spent approximately 32 of those months in overlapping and frustrating structures.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
The End of Quantitative Easing and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
June was hot for the central banks. The Federal Reserve lifted the federal funds rate for the second time this year, while the European Central Bank announced that it would end its bond purchase program by the end of 2018. It would mean another step towards normalization of the crisis-era monetary policy, which would end quantitative easing on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. What do these important developments imply for the gold market?
On June the 13th, the Fed raised interest rates for another 25 basis points. It was the second hike in 2018 and the seventh in this tightening cycle. The move was widely expected, so it did not shake the markets. However, the Fed’s statement was more hawkish than anticipated, as the U.S. central bank suggested two more rate hikes this year.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
HUI Gold Stocks Critical Juncture / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
The HUI along with most of the other PM stock indexes are at a critical point right here and now. Below is a combo chart we’ve following which has the UUP (The US Dollar Index ETF) on top and the HUI on the bottom. The UUP is building out a potential morphing bullish rising wedge consolidation pattern which would most likely give the PM complex some headwind if the price action breaks out top side. On the other hand if the rising wedge breaks down then the PM complex should have a strong tailwind at their backs. If the HUI can breakout above the top rail of its descending triangle that would be very bullish for the PM complex. As you can see the HUI and the UUP are trading at a critical inflection point right here.
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