Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, August 28, 2006

Is the 'Commodity Super Cycle' Fizzling Out? / Commodities / CRB Index

By: Gary_Dorsch

By Gary Dorsch, Editor of Global Money Trends newsletter

Since reaching a 25-year high of 365.45 on May 11 th , the Reuters Commodity Index, (CRB index), has been showing signs of fatigue, after a relentless four-year climb. The CRB index doubled from four years ago, led by commodity superstars, such as crude oil, copper, gold, platinum, silver, and sugar. However, since topping out three months ago, the CRB index has slumped about 9%, whipping up speculation that the 'Commodity Super Cycle' is fizzling out.  

Defending its decision to pause its two-year rate hike campaign at 5.25% on August 8th , the Federal Reserve predicted that a softer US economy would take the steam out of commodity prices. 'Inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting contained inflation expectations and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand,' the Fed said. Putting his fragile reputation on the line, Fed chief Ben Bernanke hinted at a rate pause on July 19th , despite elevated commodity prices. “The recent rise in inflation is of concern, and possible increases in the prices of oil as well as other raw materials remain a risk to the inflation outlook. On the other hand, a slowing economy should reduce inflation pressures,” he told lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Gold - The Correction is NOT Over ! / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Nadeem_Walayat

After peaking at over $730, Gold corrected to 540, and the subsquent rally brought gold right to the 61.8% Fibanacii retracement which held ! This strongly suggests that gold has further downside to go, before it can resume the bullmarket.....

Sunday, July 23, 2006

Mid-East 'Oil Shock' Rattles Global Stock Markets, Energizes Gold / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gary_Dorsch

Since withdrawing its troops from Southern Lebanon six years ago, Israel has carefully watched Iranian backed Hizbollah guerillas plant landmines and booby traps along their common border, and then stockpile about 12,000 katushya rockets, with ranges up to 100 km (60 miles), aimed at Israel's northern frontier. Until July 12 th , the prevailing view in Jerusalem was that Hizbollah would hold its fire, unless a wider war in the Middle East broke out over Iran's clandestine nuclear program.

However, the Middle East tinderbox was set on fire on July 12 th , when Hizbollah guerillas sneaked across the border and killed eight Israeli soldiers and kidnapped two others, which Israel's prime-minister Ehud Olmert called an “act of war”, and promised a "very painful and far-reaching" response. Hizbollah is the only Lebanese faction to retain its weapons after the 1975-90 civil-war, and is also a political party, with 14 members in the Beirut parliament and two cabinet ministers.

Sunday, August 07, 2005

Peak Oil and can Saudi Arabia come to the rescue ? / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As crude oil hits ever higher, Peak Oil concerns are not new, having first been raised by M. King Hubbert, a Shell Oil geophysicist, over 50 years ago. In a now-famous paper written in 1956, Hubbert suggested that production rates for oil (and other fossil fuels) follow a bell curve: In new fields, clean, highly pressurized oil flows abundantly to the surface, and as new wells are drilled, production rates rise steadily. After about half the oil has been extracted, however, production rates start to go down. There's still oil left, but declining pressure, exhaustion of the best oil pockets, and increasing contamination bring it to the surface ever more slowly. Applying this production model to the entire United States, taking into account the rate at which new fields were being discovered, Hubbert predicted that oil production in the lower 48 states would peak around 1970 and then start declining. And the facts is that oil production in the USA DID peak in 1970, and has since gradually declined from some 9.5 million barrels a day, to days level of 4.6 million barrels a day.

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

Crude Oil Bull Market Running out of steam ? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

After the Crude Oil bull market set a new high of 58, the market has corrected lower to 53. So where will crude go from here ?

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Commodities Bull Market - Trading the CRB Index / Commodities / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The current correction in the CRB index presents an potential opportunity to buy into the Commodities Bull Market, as the CRB comes off new highs of 292, now down to 282.

Thursday, January 01, 1970

Market Minute: Oil Prices Start to Fall / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

The recent rise in oil prices (WTI) appears to have reached a crest in late April. The outlook now is for lower levels.

Light crude oil prices made an impressive rally in March and April largely due to production cuts from Russia and OPEC. Global demand was also expected to increase, according to the EIA.