Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 19, 2007
Silver rally expected to peak in the near term for a possible shorting opportunity / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
This Silver Market update will be truncated relative to the Gold Market update, as many of the arguments set out in that update apply equally well to silver. Silver suffered a similar New Year smack down to gold, broke down from a similar intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area, and broke back above the "neckline" of the pattern on Friday, which is as a result also close to aborting.
The strength of the move on Friday indicates that we should see follow through next week, but that the advance will stall out either at the resistance in the $13.25 area, or possibly at the resistance zone in the $13.75 - $15.20 area. At this point, depending on conditions prevailing at the time, we will consider shorting it with a fairly close overhead stop.
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Thursday, January 18, 2007
Gold Rally could run out of steam in the near term / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
We have seen the severe smackdown anticipated in the last Gold Market update, although it did first manage to trip our overhead stops by a whisker before plummeting. This resulted in a breakdown from the intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area shown on the 6-month chart. On Friday, however, it surged back above the "neckline' of this pattern, which is close to aborting. Although Friday's rally was certainly impressive, we are definitely not out of the woods yet, as will be readily apparent when we look at the 6-year gold chart.
The strength of the move on Friday implies that we will see follow through over the next week or so, with a few down days thrown in. However the advance is likely to be capped once it reaches the $645 - $655 area, where there is substantial resistance - if it succeeds in getting that far. We will then need to review it in the light of what is going on in the T-bill and T-bond market and the dollar, with a view to possibly shorting it again.
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Thursday, January 18, 2007
Stock Market and Gold Wrap Up for 2006 and prospects for 2007 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Aden_Forecast
Most of the markets moved higher in 2006, driven by lots of liquidity. Stocks, commodities, precious metals and currencies... they all rose. Let's now see how they ended the year...
LARGE CAPS: THE BEST SECTOR
As the year drew to a close, the Dow Industrials hit new record highs and the S&P500 ended up gaining 11.78% in 2006. The Dow Transportations rose 8.59% while the Utilities gained 10.44%. The least impressive index was Nasdaq, which was up 7.65%, but the big stock winner was the Dow Industrials. It rose an impressive 14.90%.
Some of the foreign emerging markets did much better than the U.S. and other major international stock markets. Among the best were Mexico, Hong Kong and Singapore, which gained on average 34.5%.
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Thursday, January 18, 2007
HUI Gold bugs Index and Crude Oil Analysis - Extreme Fear / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
Stockmarket trading has certain similarities with driving a car. As a commuter you may have driven the same route a thousand times to get to work, but every day is a new day and you always have to be ready for the unexpected, such as a child running out in front of you or someone suddenly cutting you up in heavy traffic.
We have traded these markets on www.clivemaund.com successfully over the past several weeks, avoiding heavy losses and making money in Put options in stocks such as Newmont Mining, and, just a few days back, or even a day or two ago, it looked like the drop would continue. But, like the first breath of wind before a storm, evidence has begun to appear that a possibly dramatic reversal to the upside may be close at hand.
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Thursday, January 18, 2007
Precious Metals Warrants Index - Investment Performance 2006 / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Dudley_Baker
Investors are bombarded these days with new indices and ETF's on virtually all kinds of different mixes of the same information. Most have similar performance levels and must be rather confusing to most investors. We at Precious Metals Warrants have our own index ( PMWI ) for which we just completed our analysis for 2006. You will find no other index similar to ours, guaranteed. Currently, this index is our own proprietary index and cannot be bought and is being reported only on a yearly basis, last year 2005 being the first year.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Silver Elliott Wave analysis & forecast / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Robert_Watson
The silver market continues to move in a state of flux as the metal struggles to free itself from its current period of price correction. However, one must not take this to be a sign of overall weakness in the silver bull market but rather a normal adjustment to the recent $15 highs that caused silver to race too far ahead of its normative indicators. In terms of Elliott Wave analysis, the most probable picture to me is laid out below.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Leveraging Gold Investments with Silver / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Robert_Watson
If you have been a regular reader of the various precious metal websites, you will know that gold is the metal that dominates the discussion. This should not surprise us. Despite that fact that less than 2,500 tonnes of gold are mined out of the ground each year as opposed to the 20,000 tonnes of silver, it is market cashflow that matters and a look at the recent statistics of the international London bullion market shows that in November 2006, $12.1 billion worth of gold was cleared through that city as opposed to $1.41 billion worth of silver. Clearly, when it comes to business transactions as well as Internet chat, it is gold that talks louder than silver.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Investing in Uranium Mining - China's Uranium Fever ! / Commodities / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
A rush of Chinese miners is heading for Australia right now. We've seen this kind of thing before — in 1851. Back then, the Chinese miners were after gold. This time, they're after another metal ... uranium. Will they find it? If history is any guide, yes.
The Chinese are very good at mining. In fact, they were so good at finding gold that the Australians considered them supernaturally lucky. The animosity was palpable, evident in phrases like “a Chinaman's chance.”
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Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Three reasons to love and invest in uranium / Commodities / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Uranium had a great year in 2006 — prices doubled . But I think that its performance in 2007 could blow the doors off of last year's results! That's why I'm starting to line up my favorite uranium stocks for the coming year. More on that in a moment. First, I'd like to tell you why I'm so bullish on this white-hot metal.
Uranium: The Most Recession-Proof
Metal I've Ever Seen
Hey, I'm a pretty bullish guy by nature. But there are certainly troubling signs when it comes to the U.S. As guys like Mike Larson have been telling you, the housing bubble is imploding, Americans are in debt up to their eyeballs, and more.
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
What’s Behind the Crash in Crude Oil ? / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Gary_Dorsch
Is it enough to point the finger of blame for the latest crash in crude oil on the arrival of global warming? Unusually warm weather in Russia, Europe, and the United States, with temperatures reaching the upper 60’s in New York’s financial district, weakened global demand for heating oil by 23% below normal last week, and a 30% drop in heating oil demand is also expected in the days ahead.Quite often, markets seem designed to fool most people most of the time. Global economic growth and oil demand growth are usually linked, so given expectations for global GDP growth of 4.4% in 2007, it’s logical to expect global demand for crude oil to increase by at least 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. However, that would fall short of 1.8 million bpd of new oil supplies that OPEC expects to come on stream from Angola, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia this year.
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Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Is the Commodities Bull Getting Buried Under the US Housing Rubble? / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Jas_Jain
Is the Commodities Bull Getting Buried Under the US Housing Rubble?
Please look at the following graph and see if you can spot correlation between the US Housing Bubble and the DJ-AIG commodity index (DJ-AIGCI, a balanced index of various complexes) bubble of recent years.
Monday, January 08, 2007
Russia cuts oil to Europe in response to Belarus syphoning off thousands barrels of oil / Commodities / Strategic News
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Belarus smarting from the doubling in the price of gas agreed just over a week ago, started to illegally syphon oil from the Druzhba pipeline,after the Russian pipeline operator Transneft refused to pay a retaliatory duty imposed by Belarus of $45 per metric ton of Russian oil shipped to Western Europe in pipelines that cross Belarus.
Saturday, January 06, 2007
Quantum finance and the scramble for gold / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Adrian_Ash
If you can't spot the patsy, then it must be you, says Adrian Ash. Get ready for the next raft of post-Crash regulations...Only in finance do the losers get to write history. The government then prints their memoirs in the statute books, while a new volume of folly and greed is begun.
Witness Barnard's Act of 1734. It sought "to prevent the infamous practice of stock-jobbing" that had peaked and exploded with the South Sea Bubble of 1720. Investors had long since fled Change Alley, however, and gone back to trading government bonds instead.
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Thursday, January 04, 2007
Crude Oil tumbles through support levels, is the bull market over ? / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Crude oil plunges through key support levels built during the recent consolidation area of 56 to 63.
Crude Oil had been in an up trend since start of 2002, which had taken the price from just over $15 to just shy of $80 going into July 2006. Now following a failed attempt to resume the up trend, crude is threatening to end the bull market by yesterdays price action in the face of a much milder than expected US winter.
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Thursday, December 28, 2006
Gold Forecast - Four ways to profit as gold is set to shine in 2007 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Money_and_Markets
It's been a wild year in the markets, and if recent events are any barometer, 2007 is going to be even crazier. Right off the bat, let me reaffirm my most important point: Gold is going to be the asset to own in 2007. The yellow metal posted an impressive return in 2006 — almost 22% for spot gold through yesterday. But I consider that move to be just the prelude to much higher levels. Indeed, gold's action so far is just an indicator of things to come ... rising inflation ... a falling dollar ... and insurmountable debts in Washington.
More on that in a moment. First, let me take you back in time ...
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Friday, December 22, 2006
Buying gold - The easy and safe way for personal investors to Buy, Sell and hold gold at market price / Commodities / Investing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Russian and Chinese governments together with private investors are all buying gold bullion in strength, and the gold price has more than doubled in 5 years as a result. Owning physical gold is fast returning as the favoured way to secure wealth against the rising tide of global economic and financial weaknesses.
BullionVault.com is a revolutionary online market for private investors to buy gold, and later sell, directly within international high-security vaults. Customers trade gold with each other, or BullionVault.com, at the best price in a multi-currency real-time market. The service launched in May 2005 and is proving immensely popular. All bullion is held in the Brinks vault of choice in London, Zurich or New York. All accounts are openly audited daily.
BullionVault is currently being promoted with 1 gram of FREE gold bullion, stored in their Swiss vault, which is valued at $24 FREE
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Friday, December 15, 2006
Six critical market forecasts for 2007 ! / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Money_and_Markets
With the new year just about two weeks away, I think now is a good time to take stock of where we've been, where we are, and where the markets are going next year. Despite recent gyrations, especially in natural resources prices, the positions in my Real Wealth Report continue to pay off handsomely overall. And the best news is that I expect greater gains next year! Reason: All my models point to 2007 as the point in time when all the powerful forces I've been telling you about converge into some major explosions! So, without further ado, here are my six forecasts for next year ...Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 03, 2006
Crude Oil rallies, but a widening Contango could lead to a collapse in oil prices during 2007 / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As crude rallies to $63, we take a look at the effects of backwardation and Contango on the commodity markets such as crude oil. Knowing and allowing for these in future price trends can make the difference between profits and losses even if you get the market right on price direction.
Saturday, November 25, 2006
Are Arab Oil kingdoms and China Attracted to Golds Glitter? / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Gary_Dorsch
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
Crude Oil dips as it attempts to make a base above $56 before rallying / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Crude oil prices fell as mild weather countered OPEC's announcement that it will cut production. Crude Oil continues to build a base between 58 and 62, above the support zone of $56, in prelude to an uptrend after the sell off into October that took crude oil to technically very over sold state.
