Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, March 31, 2008
Gold and Silver Bearish Momentum / Commodities / Gold & Silver
The week started okay but ended on a sour note. It's not the time to panic yet but not the time to plunge in either. One should have well placed stops, relax and watch the action in comfort. Let others tear their hair out worrying what will happen next.
GOLD : LONG TERM
Nothing much has happened in the long term P&F chart so no need to comment on it this week. You may go to archive commentaries for still appropriate P&F analysis.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Why Food Prices will go through the Roof in coming Months / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
A deadly fungus, known as Ug99, which kills wheat, has likely spread to Pakistan from Africa according to reports. If true, that threatens the vital Asian Bread Basket including the Pu nj ab region. The spread of the deadly virus, stem rust, against which an effective fungicide does not exist, comes as world grain stocks reach the lowest in four decades and government subsidized bio-ethanol production, especially in the USA, Brazil and EU are taking land out of food production at alarming rates. The deadly fungus is being used by Monsanto and the US Government to spread patented GMO seeds.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Gold and Silver Remain Overbought / Commodities / Gold & Silver
“Notice two important indicators may be showing short term support ahead in gold. Silver may be putting in an internal fourth wave.” ~ Precious Points: What Goes Up…, March 22, 2008
If last week's update said gold could go to $800 and silver to $15 without technically damaging their bull markets, then some might assume the positive price action last week in precious metals must be super-bullish and that it's time to pile back in. But that's clearly not the case, as shown in the weekly gold chart below.
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Sunday, March 30, 2008
Gold Fundamentals Are Being Ignored / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Almost every article on gold seems to be stating that the yellow metal is being bought up due to these troubled economic times. If I hear the words “safe haven” again, I'm going to be sick. In other words, it is proposed that investors will lose confidence in the value of the dollar and revert back to the olden days of bartering in physical goods. Analysts are throwing around ridiculous forecasts for gold of $2,000, $5,000, even $100,000 per troy ounce.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 29, 2008
The Mega Commodity Move: Why It's Happening / Commodities / CRB Index
The precious metals have been soaring. Gold, silver, platinum, palladium… you name it. If it's a metal, it's been booming. The same is true of other commodities too. So are commodities the new bubble? Have they replaced the real estate bubble, which replaced the tech stock bubble, as investors move from one bubble to another? It sure looks like it. But the big difference is that this metals and commodities bubble has a lot further to go. Why?Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Investing in Junior Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver
“Junior gold stocks” is a three-word expression that for some breeds dismay, trepidation, and anger. But for others it illuminates excitement, opportunity, and profits. Regardless of which camp an investor resides, one thing is for certain. During this fantastic 7-year-running secular gold bull, the junior gold stock realm has been host to a highly-volatile range of sentimental extremes.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 28, 2008
A New Era in the Energy Sector / Commodities / Energy Resources
Last month we delivered a lecture at Southern Methodist University to our Oil & Gas Law class on the 'New Era of Oil: The Age of Scarcity'. This is not a standard law school topic, but relevant when discussing the legal history and development of market demand prorationing, allowables, and conservation regulations.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 28, 2008
Gold Drops 1.5% as US Core PCE Inflation Falls / Commodities / Gold & Silver
SPOT GOLD PRICES dropped to a three-session low as the New York opening drew near on Friday after the Commerce Dept. said a key measure of US price inflation dipped last month.The "Core PCE" inflation – which strips out both food and fuel prices, and which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve – rose by 2.0% in the year-to-February, just shy of Wall Street forecasts.
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Friday, March 28, 2008
Gold's Performance as a Safe Haven Asset / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Gold has traded sideways to slightly down in Asian and early trading in London this morning. Gold was down 30 cents to $948.80 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday while silver was up 17 cents to $18.49 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $944.50, £473.05 €598.28 (from $948.25, £470.60 and €600.31 yesterday). Thus, while gold was slightly down in euros and dollars it was stronger in pounds with the pound weakening on the deteriorating UK outlook (more below).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 28, 2008
Silver Bull Market Outperforming Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
In August of 2004, when Silver was $6 and Gold was $380 I wrote the 4 reasons for liking silver more than gold.
- Supply and demand -
Mine production could not satisfy physical demands of either gold or silver. However, I like silver better because most official sectors, such as the US government, have run out of silver. Only governments do nutty things like selling a valuable asset to suppress its price. I trust the private enterprises holding silver stockpiles to be logical (i.e. profit-seeking) participants in the silver market.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Platinum and Palladium- A Tale of Two Metals / Commodities / Palladium
While all the attention has been on gold this year, the recent spikes in these precious metals has been overlooked, so let's look at the long term viability of these PGMs in more detail.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Gold Slips as US Dollar Bounces Despite US Economic Slowdown / Commodities / Gold & Silver
THE PRICE OF GOLD slipped 1.1% early in London on Thursday, giving back yesterday's bounce to fall below $943 per ounce as world equity markets ticked higher and crude oil reached a one-week high after a militia attack on Iraq's main oil terminal."The Gold Market at the moment continues to drift sideways," says Mitsui in Sydney . "With quarter-end approaching, the metal's momentum to the upside could well be capped in the immediate term."
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Thursday, March 27, 2008
No Tears for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
So, the word on the street—both Wall Street and Main Street—is that the rally is over for gold and other hard assets . It's time to look elsewhere for increasing value, right? Actually, we believe the recent sell off is a blip rather than a reversal of a trend, one which will provide an entry point for those who are paying attention.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
You Think $1,000 Gold is Important? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
"A dead, defunct currency says the world's money supply is about to unleash an awful inflation..."AMID ALL THE BROU-HA-HA over gold hitting $1,000 an ounce for three short days this month, another milestone in this nine-year bull market went completely un-noticed.
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Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Gold Rallies Sharply on Deepening Credit Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Gold was up $16.50 to $934.80 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday while silver was up 70 cents to $17.70 per ounce (see more on silver shortages below) . Gold has rallied in Asian trading and again in trading in London this morning. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $945.75 £473.68 and €602.01 (from $930.65, £467.24 and €598.57 yesterday).Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Gold Bounces on ECB Inflation Warning / Commodities / Gold & Silver
THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL GOLD bounced 1.3% into the start of London trade on Wednesday, reaching a one-week high above $948 per ounce as the US open drew near.Global stock markets ticked lower, meantime, and crude oil prices rose 1.6% to $102.85 per barrel.
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Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Gold Healthy Three Leg Short-term Correction / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Effectiveness of a central bank can be measured several ways. For investors, that assessment is by return provided by equity capital in a nation and value of the nation's money. This week's chart shows that Federal Reserve deserves a failing grade. Back line is total return, including dividends, of S&P 500 over past ten years. That return has been a little more than 3% per year for ten years, and essentially zero for past eight.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Words of Wisdom - Stay the Course with Commodities / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Here's more from that subscriber of ours down in Argentina who we have dubbed 'Crazy Like a Fox' for his insights into the economy, financial markets and commodities and the way he has positioned himself in these troubled times to profit from those insights. Like his previous emails to us which we edited into articles ("Crazy Man's Rant - He's Crazy like a Fox", "A Crazy Man's Rant or Right On - You be the Judge", "Lighten up and Enjoy the Commodities Ride" and "Commodities are for 'Crafty' not 'Crazy' Investors) we have done the same with his latest which we received this past Thursday after the commodities debacle of Wednesday. If his previous 'emails' are any indication you will enjoy and prosper from what he has to say.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Gold Recovers as Stock Markets Stabalise / Commodities / Gold & Silver
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD regained a three-session high early Tuesday, rising 1.1% as London re-opened after the long Easter weekend to touch $936 per ounce – a level first broken at the end of January.Asian and European stock markets meantime turned sharply higher, led by financial shares buoyed by J.P.Morgan's revised five-fold offer for Bear Stearns.
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Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Gold Rallies on Bargain Hunting After Recent Sharp Drop / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Gold was down $2.30 to $918.30 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday while silver was up 12 cents to $17.07 per ounce. Gold has rallied in Asian trading and again in trading in London this morning. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $930.65, £467.24 and €598.57 (from $913.50, £461.60 and €591.15 last Thursday).Read full article... Read full article...