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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Monday, September 29, 2014

Silver Price At or Very Close to an Important Low / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Clive_Maund

Many investors have been freaked out by silver's recent breakdown from a Descending Triangle and the sharp drop that followed, but as we will see this morning there is now a strong case to make for silver either being at its low for this cycle, or very, very close to it.

We'll start by looking at silver's 6-month chart, on which we can see its recent action in detail. Here we see the breakdown from the Triangle (shown on the 4-year chart below) and the resulting sharp drop. This drop is now regarded as a final capitulation following the long and grueling downtrend that preceded it. Note the pronounced high volume bull hammer that occurred early last week. There is a good chance that this marks the final bottom, and if not, we are considered to be very close to it. This hammer was followed the next day by a "spinning top" candlestick, a sign of indecision and another sign that the downtrend has exhausted itself.

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Commodities

Monday, September 29, 2014

Gold Price Very Close to an Important Low / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Clive_Maund

Some of you may remember those gold ingot vending machines that started to pop up at airports and other places several years ago, which were of course a sign of a top. If they are still there they have probably been reconfigured to dispense cans of coke and candy, and if so it's a positive sign for gold.

Gold is set up to rally soon because it is oversold, with its COTs and sentiment readings at extremes characteristic of a bottom and also because the dollar is wildly overbought and out on a limb, and looking vulnerable to a reaction.

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Commodities

Monday, September 29, 2014

Gold and Silver Truth, Consequences, and Confiscations / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

I think it's normal to have doubts - especially in rigged markets like this. Stockholm Syndrome creeps in and we begin questioning everything.

Commenting on these markets over the last decade, I often wonder how long they can keep it all together.  The entire house of cards has stood up much longer than anyone has expected.  The next wave of investors will likely go through the almost reflexive reach for derivatives first.

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Commodities

Saturday, September 27, 2014

The Global Middle Class and Copper Consumption, A Stop Spike Event / Commodities / Copper

By: Richard_Mills

Population growth reports say we can expect, barring WW lll or a virus like Ebola going airborne, upwards of 11.4 billion people on the planet by the 2060s. There's just over 7 billion of us now. A possible 50 percent plus gain in our numbers over such a short time is going to put enormous strain on our abilities to source the needed inputs for survival let alone bring those in the developing world up to the same level of amenities that we in the developed world have or expect to obtain.

Rising global scarcity of minerals - the metals our industrial and connected society uses every day to sustain its lifestyle - is a subject we will all become very familiar with. That's because there's no getting around the fact we live on a planet with a finite resource base and a growing population.

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Commodities

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Gold And Silver - PetroDollar On Its Deathbed? PMs About To Rally? No / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_Noonan

As we near the end of the 3rd Q for 2014, time is running out for all the 2014 enthusiasts that are calling for higher prices by year-end. The lessons learned from 2013 have been forgotten as not only are not prices beginning to move higher, they are making new recent lows. Incredibly enough, many of these prognosticators are paid pretty well by their subscribers. Lesson to be learned? Absolutely no one can divine the future.

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Commodities

Friday, September 26, 2014

Gold Not A Safe Haven On Terrorism, Middle East Bombing, Russia ... Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

With escalating conflict in the Middle East, an unresolved conflict in the Ukraine, and various other geo-political risks on the horizon such as the contagion risk of Ebola, it would be expected that the longstanding 'safe haven' qualities of gold would come into play as they have done in the past. 

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Commodities

Friday, September 26, 2014

Valuing Gold and Turkey Farming / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Today's financial markets are built on the sand of unsound currencies. Consequently brokers, banks and investors are wedded to monetary inflation and have lost both the desire and ability to understand gold and properly value it. Furthermore governments and central banks in welfare-driven states see markets themselves as the biggest threat to their successful management of the economy, a threat that needs to be tamed. This is the backdrop to the outlook for the price of gold today and of the forces an investor in gold is pitted against.

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Commodities

Friday, September 26, 2014

Gold $1200 Underpinned by Physical Demand / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

This week saw gold rally $15 to $1233 on Tuesday before sliding to $1207 yesterday morning, then rallying in the afternoon. Silver's moves tracked gold's, bottoming out at $17.30 yesterday at the London opening. This morning precious metals are firmer in pre-LBMA trade, reflecting some short-covering ahead of the weekend.

The action, as has often been the case recently, is in paper markets with hedge funds shorting gold and silver against a strong dollar. This can be readily seen in the following chart of Managed Money shorts on Comex, which is back in record oversold territory. The chart of silver is similar.

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Commodities

Friday, September 26, 2014

Selling the Family Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Purchasing and securing precious metals is easy. It's like stepping out of the river where you can see the mainstream headed for the big waterfall.

Figuring out when to jump back in the river and bring it back into the system is a whole other challenge. Some of the basic rules of investing to live by (that go along with cheap options with low downside and infinite upside), include:

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Commodities

Friday, September 26, 2014

Gold and Silver Bear Phase III Dead Ahead / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Rambus_Chartology

This is part 1 of an essay by Plunger (Burt Coons). He is an extraordinary market historian and an associate with Rambus Chartology.

The current decline in precious metals will not be complete until it passes through all three phases of a bear market. This is the conclusion I have mapped out in previous essays. The PM bear market began in 2011 and declined steadily until the Goldman raid of April 2013. At that point the bear reached its point of recognition (POR) and underwent double crashes in April and June. After these two crashes the bear has been undergoing a complex consolidation pattern for the past 18 months. It appears that this consolidation is now complete and the bear is setting up for its final phase. This of course is the loathed phase III decline described in a previous post. In the 1930's Robert Rhea described the three psychological phases of bull and bear markets. I have extended his work by using chartology to precisely assign price levels to these three phases. This is ground breaking work as it gives us a critical tool to assess where we are and what may remain in a bull or bear cycle. This tool identifies the critical flaw of the fervent gold bug who for three years has advocated "staying the course" which has resulted in lambs being led to slaughter. The previous essays can be reviewed here: Review Phases of a bear market and Phase III essays.

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Commodities

Friday, September 26, 2014

Why the Pundits are Wrong About Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Several pundits attributed yesterday’s spike in oil prices to the recognition that the fight against ISIS in Iraq-Syria will be a long one.

As usual, the 30-second TV wonders missed the boat.

Of course, the ongoing chaos in the Middle East is certainly a factor. To the extent that oil traders begin to calculate its impact into their risk models, there will be an effect.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Currency Wars Deepen - Russia, Kazakhstan Buy Very Large 30 Tons Of Gold In August / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

Russia and ex Soviet States Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic and Azerbaijan continued to accumulate significant gold reserves in August in a trend that we highlighted last month.

See 'How to Buy Gold and When to Sell' Webinar Here

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Commodities

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Strong U.S. Dollar Pressures Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Aden_Forecast

Gold stayed under pressure this month. And the third quarter is shaping up to be a negative one. So what's going on?

This past month, we've seen the U.S. economy improve, which has kept investors running to the stock market.

It's also fueling beliefs that higher U.S. interest rates are coming sooner than expected. This has been pushing up the U.S. dollar. And with Europe also needing to continue their stimulus and keep interest rates low, it's adding even more fuel to the stronger dollar. That in turn is keeping downward pressure on gold. And it's causing a decline in the demand for gold.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

All Eyes on Kenya: The Next Big Oil Exporter / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Not even the specter of a spillover of Islamic extremism from Somalia can dampen the atmosphere in Kenya, where commercial oil production is expected to begin in 2016 and discovery after discovery has made this the hottest and fastest-paced hydrocarbon scene on the continent. 

When it comes to new oil and gas frontiers, today it’s all about Africa. And more specifically, it’s all about the eastern coast, with Kenya the clear darling--not just because it’s outpacing neighboring Uganda by leaps and bounds, but also because despite some political instability hiccups and the threat of militant al-Shabaab, it’s still one of the safest venues in the region.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Venezuela's Gold Appears To Be Still In Venezuela But For How Long? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

▶ Where is Venezuela's 366 tonnes of gold?

▶ Does Venezuela still control and own unencumbered it’s own gold reserves?

▶ Bank of America economist on visit to Venezuelan central bank last week was allowed to view the bank's gold vault and the gold repatriated by President Hugo Chavez

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