Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, November 24, 2022
Crude Oil Price Predicis the US Economy and Stocks / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Rambus_Chartology
Oil, like just about everything else that is related to the markets, bottomed around the March / April 2020 pandemic crash low. The oil complex had been one of the worst performing areas even underperforming the PM complex if that is possible. When oil did bottom it did so in dramatic fashion capitulating hard to the downside in one last climatic thrust.
I built a few new combo chart this weekend, related to oil sector, to see if I could paint a more clearer picture of what is taking place. Since the 2020 crash low the USO, US oil fund, has had a very strong rally with the high being made back in the middle of June around 93 or so. The USO has been forming a new trading range since the June high and is currently testing the top rail of the blue falling wedge and the bottom trendline the 2020 uptrend channel. So the moment of truth has arrived.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
GOLD AND THE NORMALCY BIAS / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
We think we know most (if not, all) of what we need to know about gold. Investors do their research and marketers spin their best yarn(s). Support is offered with an amazing array of fundamental and technical factors on display for all to see. But what are we not seeing?
NORMALCY BIAS DEFINITION
normalcy bias (noun)
“The phenomenon of disbelieving one’s situation when faced with grave and imminent danger and/or catastrophe.” …Wictionary
Here is a better, more complete definition from a different source…
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Monday, November 21, 2022
Gold Price Formed a Bearish Star, and It’s Not Even Christmas Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Last week was full of events, but the most important one clarified after Friday’s closing bell – gold formed a reversal “shooting star” candlestick.
The implications are just as you think they are. After a sharp run-up, the rally has run its course, and the yellow metal is now about to slide again.
Let’s take a closer look.
Friday, November 18, 2022
As inflation eases, Macro grinds favor of Gold Stocks Mining Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
The macro market and economic backdrop continues to pivot favorable for the gold mining sector
The risk/reward for gold stocks has been very good after 2.5 years of correction that, contrary to what a majority of gold bugs think, was very valid amid the post-pandemic cycle of cyclical inflation. I won’t review the details about why here, as it is beyond the scope of this article and I’ve parroted them in several blog posts at nftrh.com. But suffice it to say, the gold stock sector did the work it was supposed to do since August, 2020.
In a previous post we noted the risk/reward of gold (mining product) vs. crude oil (mining cost driver) that is at once very bearish for gold stocks and implying a great risk/reward proposition for gold, and by extension, the gold mining sector. Here is a chart showing the Gold/Oil ratio in a very depressed (bearish) state with nowhere left to go but up. That’s the positive risk/reward that has been hammered out since the high risk days of mid-2020 as the ‘inflation trades’ were just getting underway.
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Friday, November 18, 2022
Can a Gold Stocks Rally Be Bearish? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
History tends to repeat itself, and mining stocks appear to be repeating their 2008 performance, which has very interesting implications.
Why do I think that gold miners are repeating their 2008 price patterns? Please take a look at the below chart.
Thursday, November 10, 2022
Why Now 'Is a Great Time To Load up on Silver and Silver Investments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Clive_Maund
Expert Clive Maund reviews silver's 4-month and 1-year charts to tell you why he believes it is a good time to load up on this precious metal.
Silver has three irresistible attributes at this time, one is that it is very cheap historically, especially when you factor in mounting inflation in recent times. Another is that, in common with metals generally, it looks set to enter a robust bull market as the dollar breaks down into a severe bear market.
The arguments relating to why the dollar looks set to break down have been set out in the parallel Gold Market update, as have the other circumstantial factors supportive of a rising silver price, such as the upside breakouts by copper and oil, so they will not be repeated here.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022
What the USDX Shows Will Happen to Crude Oil Price Soon / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Less than a month from now – on December 5 – an embargo on maritime exports of Russian crude oil to the European Union will come into force, as I explained in my last article.
As a result, global oil supply is expected to tighten significantly, with Russia being the world’s largest exporter of oil and fuels.
Therefore, energy markets are bracing for turbulence, as they may face a new storm of volatility.
On the macroeconomic view, the US Dollar Currency Index – still weakening against a basket of major currencies – starts looking down from the balcony to revisit some lower floors:
Tuesday, November 08, 2022
What Did the US Dollar Have to Do With Gold’s Nov 7th Rally? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver and mining stocks’ prices soared on Friday. Let’s see if the dollar may have had something to do with this movement.
Very little happened in the precious metals market yesterday, and what I wrote and said yesterday remains up-to-date.
I got a request to comment on the USD Index (and its link with gold), and I’ll be happy to deliver.
Sunday, November 06, 2022
Yield Curve Flashes Recession Alert! Better Times for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The key yield curve has inverted, shouting loudly that a recession is coming - and with it, better times for gold.I activated the high-degree recession alert! I’ve been writing about the downturn for some time, but in October, another important indicator flashed a red light. As you can see on the chart below, the key yield curve has inverted.
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Sunday, November 06, 2022
Another Jumbo Rate Hike, Another Decline in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Mp> The Fed delivered another 75-basis points hike. Gold didn’t like the FOMC meeting and declined further.November’s FOMC gathering is behind us. It was quite boring. You know, another meeting, another 75-basis points hike…
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to -3-1/4 to 4 percent.
The Fed raised interest rates by that much for the fourth time in a row. It’s quite impressive, given that in the last tightening cycle, they increased the rates only in 25-basis point moves. As a result, the target range for the federal funds rate is now at 3.75-4.0%, the highest level since early 2008, as the chart below shows. Thus, we can say that the interest rates have finally normalized after the Great Recession! Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 04, 2022
Is Crude Oil Switching into Bullish Territory Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Paul_Rejczak
Oil prices are trading this Friday at their highest in nearly a month, benefiting from the looming tighter supply as an effect of market speculation around potential zero-Covid policy relief in China.
Available to premium subscribers only – New trading projections on Crude Oil Futures DEC22
In addition to the reduction in the OPEC+ production target of 2 million barrels per day for the month of November, the EU embargo and the planned cap on the price of Russian oil add to the pervasive tension in the market.
In addition, the G7 member countries and Australia have agreed to set a fixed cap for the price of Russian oil rather than a variable rate in the interests of clarity, while the United Kingdom has aligned itself with the European Union by prohibiting British ships and service providers from contributing to the maritime transport of Russian oil sold above the fixed price set by the G7 and Australia.
Friday, November 04, 2022
Fed Continues Tough Talk, but Gold & Silver Show Resilience / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Precious metals investors remain cautious following the Federal Reserve’s latest jumbo rate hike.
On Wednesday, the Fed announced another three-quarter point bump up on interest rates. It’s the sixth straight hike by central bankers and brings the Fed funds rate up to 4%. That’s the highest it has been since 2008.
Investors fully anticipated the Fed’s latest move but hoped it would be accompanied by a dovish statement from Chairman Jerome Powell. Instead, Powell threw cold water on the idea of a pause or pivot at the FOMC’s next meeting. In his remarks, he sounded less like a dove and more like a grinch who was preparing to severely punish Americans for the Fed’s past mismanagement and impose more pain to financial markets as the holiday season approaches.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2022
Macro changing in favor of the Gold Stocks Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
Macro changing in favor of the gold stock sector is and has been a process
The process began with the leveling off of inflation’s momentum and continued as the global economy began to show signs of weakness (e.g. US manufacturing deceleration and developing supply chain slack among several other problem areas as exposed during the current earnings season).
While the nominal sector (HUI or the ETFs, GDX and GDXJ) has been bouncing within its intact downtrend it would be best to track other macro considerations along with the chart TA, which could signal a new bull phase by either completing a daily chart bottom/base (which nearly happened on Wednesday, but at least temporarily failed as the index and ETFs did not take out the October 4th highs) or completing a final decline, preferably amid much fear and angst among whatever inflation bugs may still be infesting the sector.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2022
Gold and Silver Believed To Be Close to Major Uptrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: The_Gold_Report
On the 1-year chart for gold shown below, we can see precisely why it has been in a quite severe downtrend from its peak last March. It is because the dollar and interest rates, shown at the top and bottom of the chart, have been in strong uptrends during this period.
A very important point to note is that while gold has dropped about $400 from its March peak, in real terms, this decline is much more serious because of the robust inflation during this period.
So if the Fed does pivot soon, that is to say, it stops raising rates and starts lowering them, or other Central Banks start raising rates, thus reducing the dollar’s appeal.
It will mean a reversal to the downside in the dollar and to the upside in gold and commodities and risk-on assets generally, and as we saw on Friday 21st, even talk of a pivot is enough to generate a recovery.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2022
Why Gold’s Losing Streak May Soon Turn Around / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
The gold market enters trading for the month of November on a losing streak. Can bulls finally turn things around?
Their first test will be to defend the line of support established from the September and October lows. Although the gold market registered a seventh consecutive monthly decline in October – marking its worst string of monthly losses in 50 years – daily prices didn't actually break down to new lows for the year.
Despite another losing month, downside selling pressure appears to be fizzling out. Gold prices have been consolidating within a narrowing range over the past several weeks and have even popped above the downtrend line today (November 1).
Monday, October 31, 2022
Could a Red Wave Cool Off the Retail Bullion Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Americans will vote in the midterm elections next Tuesday. The latest polling suggests that a “red wave” is building, and Republicans may win the majority both in the House and the Senate. The election results will have implications for all markets – and that includes precious metals.
Mass psychology is one factor. Confidence in U.S. institutions has been in decline for several decades. However, when we see a marginal restoration of confidence, it can impact physical market demand for bullion.
Accordingly, should Republicans win big next week, red-hot bullion demand could cool off for a period of time.
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Sunday, October 30, 2022
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have been battered over this past half-year, bludgeoned relentlessly lower with gold. Heavy gold-futures selling fueled by the US dollar shooting parabolic in a mania has slammed the yellow metal. Gold’s normal seasonal trends have been overpowered by speculators’ leveraged gold-futures dumping. But with their selling capital firepower exhausted, gold’s usual winter rally should roar back.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks display strong seasonality because their price action amplifies that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
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Sunday, October 30, 2022
Is $600 Gold Price Possible? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD PRICE DECLINE – $600 POSSIBLE?
Over the past couple of months, since the posting of my article Gold Charts – $1450 the price of gold has done nothing to indicate a change in direction or reversal of any consequence.
Below is the latest chart (source) of physical gold prices showing monthly average closing prices since the peak in July 2020…
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Sunday, October 23, 2022
WTI Crude Oil Is Stuck in a Choppy Trading Range / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Oil prices ended the week caught between the headwinds of a tighter global supply and a lacklustre economic outlook eroding consumers' purchasing power.
Macroeconomics
On Thursday, the greenback took off over the value of 150 Japanese yen – a symbolic price mark – for the first time since the 1990s.
Saturday, October 22, 2022
Euphoric US Dollar Vexing Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The euphoric US dollar’s epic parabolic surge over this past half-year continues to sorely vex gold. The dollar’s vertical march to extreme secular highs spawned heavy gold-futures selling, slamming gold. The resulting lower gold prices have scared away investors, leaving gold languishing near deep lows despite an inflation super-spike raging. This fundamentally-absurd market anomaly can’t last, and is overdue to reverse.
Gold is behaving terribly this year, plunging 17.9% between mid-April to late September! That has left even hardened contrarian traders disheartened, increasingly wondering if gold is dead. Speculators and investors alike want nothing to do with history’s ultimate inflation hedge, even with headline Consumer-Price-Index inflation averaging stunning 8.5% year-over-year gains over the last six months. Gold looks broken.
While gold was being slammed lower by relentless gold-futures dumping, the CPI peaked in June at a cycle high up 9.1% YoY. That proved its hottest read since way back in November 1981! So we are literally suffering through a brutal inflation super-spike today, the first since the 1970s. The Fed’s extreme money printing after March 2020’s pandemic-lockdown stock panic has come home to roost, driving up prices.
Gold skyrocketed during those 1970s inflation super-spikes, as it should. The first was born in June 1972 at a CPI trough up 2.7% YoY, then peaked 30 months later in December 1974 with the CPI soaring 12.3% YoY. The monthly-average gold prices during that span soared 196.6% higher! Gold’s supply growth is heavily constrained by mining limitations, so it is bid way up during times of serious currency debasement.
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