Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Gold, Stocks and Copper Set to Crash / Commodities / Financial Crash
Failure of gold's key support at $1500 - $1550 triggered a stunning plunge as masses of stops were triggered. We can see what happened on the 6-month chart below. The plunge was the most severe since 1980 and was accompanied by colossal record volume, which is strongly bearish. It quickly lead to gold becoming critically oversold and it bounced later in the week as cheerleaders advised their readers to buy this "opportunity of a lifetime". Is it? In this update we will consider the implications of this extraordinary breakdown.
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Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Silver Price Crash Through Support Sets Scene for Further Steep Drop to Under $20 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
Silver crashed its key support last week and plunged in sympathy with gold. On its 6-month chart below we can see the big drop that followed failure of the support, and how after plunging on Monday, it then steadied and traded in a narrowing range for the rest of the week, unlike gold which crept higher.
Although silver is more volatile and wild in its movements than gold, it has been following a parallel technical script, with support level failures and trendline breaks synchronizing with those of gold, as we will see.
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Tuesday, April 23, 2013
How Low Can the Gold Price Go? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
Killian Charles, an analyst with Industrial Alliance in Montreal, isn't too concerned if the gold price hits $1,300 an ounce or even $1,000. He's more concerned with the gold breaking point. How low can the gold price go without breaking a project? Investors will be surprised to know that a wealth of junior miners are lean and mean enough to survive a pint-sized gold price. Charles talks with The Gold Report about which companies have resized and redesigned their projects to make it in this unforgiving market.
The Gold Report: Killian, what are the main causes of the disconnect between commodity prices and the share prices of mining companies?
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Monday, April 22, 2013
Paper Gold and Silver Market Diverging From Physical Bullion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
How is it possible gold goes down $200 in the paper market while there is almost no supply available to buy around the world? Last I checked, dwindling or completely absent supply against steady and increasing demand means higher prices, not sudden price drops. Quite simply, the paper market is being manipulated one way or another. Whether it's nervous speculators or the more likely collusion of banks and the federal government, there can be no mistaking that the deviation in the gold paper and physical markets this last week is a major event for The End Of The Monetary Systems As We Know It.
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Monday, April 22, 2013
Gold and Silver Buying Frenzy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
Diane Alter writes: Wondering if now's the time to buy gold and silver? Wonder no more. Let me explain.
As a collector of both precious metals, like many, I planned on loading up in the wake of recent price declines. But guess what? My usual dealers were out of gold and silver.
Thanks to the selloff, a buying frenzy for bullion has crashed websites, jammed phone lines and depleted inventory.
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Monday, April 22, 2013
Gold Action Dominated by Retail Buying / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
WHOLESALE gold prices rose back above $1430 per ounce Monday morning for the first time since last Monday's price drop, amid reports of strong buying in Asia, while stocks gained and US Treasuries fell.
Silver meantime ticked higher above $23.60 an ounce, though remained below Friday's high, while other commodities also gained with the exception of copper.
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Monday, April 22, 2013
Arizona Set To Use Gold and Silver As Currency / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,425.00, EUR 1,092.54 and GBP 935.04 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,414.00, EUR 1,080.46 and GBP 920.63 per ounce.
Monday, April 22, 2013
Is Buying Gold Miners A Good Idea When Gold Price is Falling? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013
Moe Zulfiqar writes: Gold is in a bear market territory. The price of the shiny yellow metal has fallen almost 30% since the highs it made above $1,900 an ounce in April of 2011. Look at the chart below—it seems gold bullion prices have fallen off a cliff.
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Monday, April 22, 2013
Cheap Gold! Cheap Silver! Buy as Much as You Can! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
I was innocently watching TV with the family, suffering only a tolerable minimum of constant, simmering anger and paranoia about the horrific economic cataclysm that is descending upon us like a devouring plague because the world’s governments spent themselves into bankrupting debt, people and businesses of the world borrowed themselves into bankrupting debt, and central banks around the world created the irresponsible, impossible, incredible amounts of fiat currency and credit to finance it all.
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Sunday, April 21, 2013
Gold and Silver Critical Questions / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
We wrote about the great disconnect between physical and paper silver only a few weeks ago. After the sharpest one-day price drop since 2001 the disconnect between physical and paper is becoming even larger. It is now present in both metals.
On Friday, even the World Gold Council came out with a press release in which they confirm (1) speculation in the futures market as the primary reason for the price drop and (2) the massive wave of physical buying across the globe. “We are already seeing shortages for bars and coins in Dubai, while premiums in Mumbai are at $26/oz and $6 in Shanghai, indicating that buyers are willing to pay more than current spot prices for the metal.”
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Sunday, April 21, 2013
Investors Protect Yourself From Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
Marc Lichtenfeld writes: Gold is supposed to act as a safe haven from crisis and a hedge against inflation. But lately, it hasn’t been either.
You would think with the bombastic manchild leader in North Korea threatening nuclear Armageddon and the usual problems in the Middle East, investors would flock to gold. But gold fell 10% in two days.
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Sunday, April 21, 2013
Gold Price Forecast Drop Target $787.40 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
The unemotional 5% X 3 box reversal P&F chart below (courtesy stockcharts.com) shows a measured move target for gold at $787.40.
No time horizon is capable of being forecast.
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Saturday, April 20, 2013
Central Bankers Are Golden Toast On A Silver Spoon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
Memo To Central Bankers:
How dumb can you be? What better way to expose your naked short backside than to trash a market with known world-wide demand? So arrogant, so parochial. The world thanks you. The bullion dealers than you. The gold/silver buyers thank you.
When there is more and more smoke about the possibility of the bullion cupboards being bare, the fiat-makers are doing the same thing to paper gold and silver as they have done to currencies: destroying them.
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Saturday, April 20, 2013
Gold Is Flowing From West to East / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
And still almost no one is talking about silver, the dog that doesn't bark.
Next Thursday the 25th is the option expiration on the Comex. The expiration in stocks today was quiet with even the financial news dominated by the hunt for the Boston bomber.
The US will release its Advanced GDP figure on Friday the 26th.
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Saturday, April 20, 2013
Can Stocks Cushion the Blow of Falling Gold Prices? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013
The recent fall in precious metals prices has investors on edge. Many precious metals equities were hurting even before the latest precious metals drop. In this interview with The Gold Report, Peter Rose, head of mining research with Fox-Davies Capital Ltd. in London, provides a European perspective on mining and advises looking at under-appreciated jurisdictions (think Europe) and neglected metals like tin, lead and zinc.
The Gold Report: Peter, can you give us your long-term view of the Eurozone as it lurches from bailout to bailout?
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Friday, April 19, 2013
People Running Through the Gate” to Buy Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
As I have been writing in these pages, after a bull market that has gone on for 12 years, the recent pullback in gold bullion prices should be seen as a correction in an ongoing bull market in the metal. I see the pullback as a buying opportunity.
While news headlines flash a bearish sentiment towards gold bullion prices, the gold bears are screaming about how much money central banks have lost due to the plunge in prices and the gold miners are facing pressures. The usual gold bullion consumer countries, India and China, are seeing robust demand.
Friday, April 19, 2013
Gold Panic Leaves Gold Bugs Shell Shocked, What to do? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
Holy cow, not even the most vociferous gold bears saw that one coming! Gold just suffered what can only be described as a panic. This metal plummeted so fast that its price surrendered a staggering 1/7th of its value in just two trading days! This blistering decline was so extreme it even dragged the general stock markets down with it. Shell-shocked gold investors are nervously wondering what to make of it.
The gold panic certainly caught me unaware, even after a dozen years of relentless study and very profitable trading of this secular gold bull. We were and are heavily deployed in dirt-cheap gold stocks in light of gold’s incredibly bullish technicals and sentiment. Seeing one of gold’s fastest selloffs ever wasn’t even in the probability space, it should have been effectively impossible. Yet it still happened.
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Friday, April 19, 2013
Possible Target For Gold Price Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
The recent drop in gold and silver is not critical to buyers of physical metals. Instead, it is an opportunity – to buy more at lower prices; at worst, it is an irritation, since it means a longer wait. It would likely be critical only if the gold bull market is over, and prices do not rise higher than the 2011 highs for many years.If you are buying paper gold (especially leveraged), then a drop like the current drop is likely to be critical. On top of that, the ride is almost guaranteed to remain painful, even if gold moves to $5000 over the next 2 years, due to extreme volatility.
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Friday, April 19, 2013
Gold Bears Suddenly Appear, More Emboldened than Ever / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
Congrats to the gold bears and stock bulls! After being slaughtered for the majority of the last decade and more, they finally won a victory. Golf clap for you gentlemen. Now you can have your day in the sun once again. US stocks are at all-time highs and Gold sucks again! You won’t have to listen to your clients ***** and moan about how you ignored, avoided or were underweight the bull market of our time. Time to crow!
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Friday, April 19, 2013
Gold and Silver Prices - Been Here Before but This Time Is Different / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
The precious metals have seen dramatic sell-offs before, although the primary difference between previous precious metal declines and the recent drop is the current shortage of physical metal.
It is also worth considering how well the commercial bullion traders are positioned for a rally after these past two days of sharply dropping prices, especially when the latest price drop came on top of a physical market signaling tightness all along.
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