Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, November 27, 2020

Gold: Insurance for Prudent Investors, Precious Metals Reduce Risk & Preserve Wealth / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nick_Barisheff

Responsible homeowners and landlords insure their property against fires, floods and violent storms. Sensible motorists insure their vehicles against inadvertent fender benders and costly collisions. Prudent investors own precious metals to protect financial assets from currency debasement, stock market meltdowns and economic collapse.

Reducing risk and avoiding financial loss is the purpose of insurance. Precious metals is the insurance plan that everyone needs – especially now. Like insurance, precious metals safeguard financial assets, reducing risk and loss. This is because gold is the most negatively correlated asset to financial assets.

Thursday, November 26, 2020

Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

It might have been tempting to think that the recent move lower in the U.S. Dollar Index would serve to push gold higher, as it usually does according to the traditional pattern. But these are extraordinary times and there are too many external factors weighing negatively on the price of the yellow metal.

As if the previous vaccine announcements weren’t enough, the latest vaccine trials from AstraZeneca further propelled positive news. And as Trump reluctantly gave Joe Biden the green light towards a transition to the White House, what more can the precious metals do but capitulate? The risky assets train is leaving the station and investors are climbing on board. There simply is no clear catalyst for gold to rally and it can only go further down from here before bottoming.

Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Biden the Silver Bull / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth explains why he believes Biden could become silver's best friend. It may seem like an unlikely match.

But there are some big reasons why Biden could become silver's best friend.

The main force behind this thesis is that we can expect stimulus. A lot of stimulus.

More specifically, Biden is likely to do his utmost to bring on more general support for the economy through increased borrowing, further expanding the deficit and national debt.

He has also made it clear that he's a big proponent of a Green New Deal, which is a mega effort to migrate the economy towards renewable energy and net zero carbon emissions.

Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger examines the charts for commodities like soybeans and the components used in handheld electronic devices, and reflects on what they say about the future prospects of those who hold mortgages and invest in precious metals.

As I peruse my favorite website in search of technical patterns for various commodities and stocks, I am reminded of the soon-to-be-immortal words of former stock salesman and current Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, when he announced a major shift in policy related to "inflation targeting." As the Gregorian-like chant of "Bye-bye 2%" echoes throughout the room, a second memory appears of a quote that I lifted from the pages of Yale Hirsch's timeless "Stock Trader's Almanac," where it is said that "Inflation is like toothpaste; once out of the tube, it is impossible to get it back in."

Rather than applying my obsessive-compulsive personality disorder to the same old charts of first gold and silver, then the senior and junior miners, and ending with virtually everything that is in my personal portfolio, I decided this morning to change it up. They say that "sometimes a change is better than a rest," so as the Powell-esque mantra resonated in the background, I thought of food prices and how my trusty government agencies are constantly feeding me information about how "subdued" the inflation rates are thanks to the mercurial talents of the central bankers.

Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Vaccines are coming. But so is the debt crisis. What does it imply for gold?

COVID-19 cases are still rising at an alarming rate in the United States. As the chart below shows, the rolling 7-day average of new daily infections stays above 160,000.

Monday, November 23, 2020

Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

When making decisions regarding the gold mining stocks sector, some will choose to follow price actions while others will use indicator tools. The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) is one such tool, essentially being a gauge of overbought and oversold conditions for the gold mining sector with readings plotted on a range between 0 and 100. Anything below 30 suggests oversold conditions while readings above 70 indicate an overbought situation, with a buy or sell signal being triggered when the index reaches an extreme level and then reverses. Because gold stocks move in tune with gold or silver, the index can be useful in determining the direction of the entire precious metals sector as well as acting like a crystal ball when comparing historical patterns.

Sunday, November 22, 2020

Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our advanced Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling system is showing some interesting future trends for both Gold and Silver. The rally in precious metals has really just started if our ADL system is accurately predicting future price trends.

Over the past two years, we’ve highlighted a number of ADL research posts that have proven to be incredibly insightful regarding future market price trends.  The ADL predictive modeling system is unique in that it maps out price and technical indicator DNA markers and attempts to correlate future price characteristics into highly probable outcomes.  The result is a clear picture of what the ADL system believes is the most likely outcome based on the selected price bar.

Thursday, November 19, 2020

Media Celebrates after Trump’s Pro-Gold Fed Nominee Gets Blocked / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

            It was only after he entered politics that President Donald Trump began to fully grasp the bias, dishonesty, and fakeness that runs throughout the so-called mainstream media.

But gold bugs and sound money advocates have long known to distrust the reporting of establishment news sources.

Journalists’ anti-gold and anti-Trump biases converged this week as the Senate took up President Trump’s nomination of Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board.

Shelton, a fierce Fed critic and past supporter of a gold standard, drew intense opposition from Senate Democrats. She also faced opposition from Republicans Lamar Alexander, Susan Collins, and Mitt Romney.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Gold Remains the Best Pandemic Insurance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth explains why he believes gold is the best COVID insurance policy. Bailouts and stimulus are not the best solution to the Covid pandemic.

What is? Possibly…insurance.

I know it's far from perfect, but I think it could still be the best overall option.

On some level, it's surprising that the role of insurance has gotten so little attention in this crisis.

After all, us and future generations will have to pay for all these massive bailouts.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

This Chart Signals When Gold Stocks Will Explode / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold Stocks remain in a correction, even if the October 29 lows continue to hold into December. 

Corrections are a function of price and time, and often in this sector, a correction can continue in terms of time, well after a low in price is made. But I digress.

The most significant and most consistent moves to the upside usually occur after a crash or after a major breakout. 

Gold and silver stocks made tremendous moves after the Covid crash and remain in position for tremendous upside moves over the quarters ahead.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Gold Price Momentous ally From 2000 Compared To SPY Stock Market and Nasdaq / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In Part I of this research article I highlighted the incredible rally in Gold related to a 2020 Anchor point and how that rally in Gold compared to the QQQ and SPY.  In this second Part I am going to highlight the price appreciation in the QQQ and SPY in comparison to Gold since 2009.  It is important to understand how the equities/stocks have rallied in comparison to Gold because the ratio of valuation levels in equities/stocks compared to Gold appears to show when price disparities become outrageous and begin to revert.

Part I of our research showed the 2000 anchor point ratios, where we saw that Gold appreciated faster than the QQQ and the SPY over the span of the past 20 years.  You’ll also see that the QQQ and SPY have appreciated very quickly over the past 5+ years in an attempt to close the gap.  This represents a shift in how traders view opportunities in different asset classes.

Monday, November 16, 2020

Free-spending Biden and/or continued Fed stimulus will hike Gold prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Gold may have come off the boil a bit after rising beyond $1,900 an ounce in the aftermath of the US election, but the precious metal will do well under a Biden presidency, an Ahead of the Herd analysis has found.

The main factors are drastically increased government spending, leading to even more unsustainable US debt levels than currently; dovish monetary policy as the Fed continues to advocate “lower for longer” interest rates; and a sinking US dollar. Gold prices and the USD generally move in opposition to each other.

Gold and the debt to GDP ratio

The debt-to-GDP ratio is an important metric economists use for comparing a country’s total debt to its gross domestic product (GDP).

Monday, November 16, 2020

You May Have Overlooked These “Sleeper” Precious Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets got off to a rocky start this week as Wall Street celebrated promising developments on the vaccine front.

On Monday, stocks surged while gold and silver sold off hard. That selling didn’t bring downside follow through, however. The metals held trading range support levels and pared some of their earlier losses heading into this Friday the 13th.

A metal we don’t often talk about traded up to an amazing record high earlier this week. The noble metal rhodium made palladium look dirt cheap by comparison – commanding as much as $15,000 per ounce.

Sunday, November 15, 2020

What's Ahead for the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, look at the macroeconomic factors they believe will move gold higher. The gold market entered a period of increased volatility during the third quarter, usually a positive indicator for the metal. A growing number of investors and analysts recommended the accumulation of gold as it began to move out of the shadows and into the spotlight. Global ETFs have now been net purchasers for 11 months in a row and central banks have also been net purchasers every month of this year except October when two nations liquidated some of their holdings to meet dollar requirements resulting from the COVID-induced economic crisis.

We see a further move higher in gold in the near term as the election log jam begins to clear. The election process curtailed new fiscal stimulus since July when direct transfers to individuals exhausted their Congressional approvals. This pause in fiscal stimulus, which took government transfer payments to an astonishing 25% of household income, coincided with a pause in gold's upward momentum. However, it is very clear that further stimulus is favored on both sides of the House and even a Republican Senate, if there proves to be one, will not prevent trillions more of fiscal stimulus.

Sunday, November 15, 2020

Gold’s Momentous Rally From 2000 Compared To Stock Market SPY & QQQ / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

My research team and I went off on a wild tangent trying to identify how the markets could react to the recent spike in price activity on Monday, November 9, 2020.  This is the day that Pfizer announced a 90% effective rate with its new COVID-19 vaccine, causing the US stock market to skyrocket higher before the opening bell in New York. As with most pop-and-drops, this incredible upside spike trailed lower for the remainder of the trading day.  My research team was curious if this type of setup presented any real future outcome or trends.  To this end, we focused on the QQQ and the SPY in relationship to Gold.

9 to 9.5 year Gold Depreciation Cycle Ended in 2018 – what’s next?

Gold has been and continues to be a store of value for many around the world. At some times in history, Gold becomes undervalued in comparison to other assets (like stocks, real estate, and other tangible assets).  At other times, Gold becomes more highly valued in comparison to other assets.  This cycle has taken place throughout hundreds of years of history, and is rooted in the changing perceptions of market participants regarding “what/where is true value in the markets”.

Friday, November 13, 2020

Is Silver Leading Bitcoin or is Bitcoin Leading Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Is silver leading Bitcoin or is Bitcoin leading silver? Well, it depends on which time framing one is looking at.

On this chart comparison below, silver appears to be leading the way higher compared to Bitcoin:

Thursday, November 12, 2020

Will COVID Vaccine Kill Gold and Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth looks into what Pfizer and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine efficacy announcement could mean for gold and silver.

Believe it or not, the big deal for precious metals this week was not the U.S. election.

It was news that Pfizer and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine was over 90% effective in preventing the virus, and would likely be among the first to receive FDA authorization.

Monday was massively risk-on, with the Dow soaring 4% to a new record high, ten-year treasuries yields shot up almost 17% in a single day as investors dumped bonds, and oil was ahead 8%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index gained about 60 basis points or 0.65%, while higher-beta currencies jumped.

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Gold Stocks Post 2020 US Election Outlook / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

We last wrote to you roughly ten days ago.

We concluded, “It appears GDX and GDXJ will test their September lows at $37 and $52 reasonably soon. Should GDX & GDXJ break those lows to the downside, then we should get ready to buy.”

GDX and GDXJ did break their September lows but only for a day. They closed below those levels on October 29 and then gapped down the next day. 

But as it stands, that gap lower figures to be the low in price for this correction. 

The best sign for the sector is the technical outlook for the Dow Jones US Gold Mining Index, which is weighted heavily towards the largest handful of companies in the industry. 

Monday, November 09, 2020

Silver Price Is Trapped Below $30 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Below is a chart (source) showing a 10-year history of silver prices. The prices are adjusted for inflation…

Monday, November 09, 2020

Will Coronavirus Second Wave Boost Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Brace yourselves, winter is coming! This is what Ned Stark in the Game of Thrones told his people to prepare them for the leaner times he saw coming. While one of the biggest threats in GOT were the White Walkers, in our reality, the pandemic is again the greatest danger. As the chart below shows, the second wave of the coronavirus infections is no longer a mere possibility – it’s happening all over the Europe and in the United States (although in the latter country, we could also say about one big wave or three waves). In particular, in France, Italy, Spain, the UK, and in the US, the number of daily new confirmed Covid-19 case per million people has soared much higher than the levels recorded in the spring. And we’ve just entered autumn, with winter yet to arrive.