Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, February 26, 2021
Kiss of Life for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Submissions
The narrow trading range in stocks continues, and the shallow sideways correction will eventually resolve itself with another upleg. The signs are countless, and the riskier part of the credit market spectrum agrees. As money flows from the Tresury markets, and sizable cash balances are sitting on many a balance sheet, there is plenty of fuel to power the S&P 500 advance.
With volatility in the tame low 20s and the put/call ratio again moving down, the bears‘ prospects are bleak. As I wrote last week, their time is running out, and a new stock market upleg approaches. It‘s the bond market that‘s under pressure, with both investment grade corporate bonds and long-dated Treasuries suffering in the accelerated decline.
Gold is the most affected, as the sensitivity of its reaction to the rising long-tern yields, has picked up very noticeably. How long before these draw both the Fed‘s attention and action – what will we learn from Powell‘s testimony on Tue and Wed? And when will the much awaited stimulus finally arrive, and force repricing beyond the metals markets?
Before that, gold remains on razor‘s edge, while silver leads and platinum flies for all the green hydrogen promise. The dollar has given back on Thu and Fri what it gained two days before, and remains in its bear market. Not even rising yields were able to generate much demand for the world reserve currency. Its lower prices stand to help gold thanks to the historically prevailing negative correlation, counterbalancing the Treasury yields pressure.
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Friday, February 26, 2021
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 / Commodities / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
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Thursday, February 25, 2021
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Gold continues to wallow near its recent low price level, near $1765. Silver has continued to trend moderately higher – but still has not broken out to the upside. Many analysts have continued to estimate when and how metals will begin the next wave higher. My research team and I believe we’ve found some answers to these questions and want to share our research.
Silver Explodes In Late-Stage Excess Rallies
The first thing we want to highlight is that Silver tends to rally excessively in the later stages of any precious metals rally. For example, in mid-2010, Silver began an incredible upside price rally after Gold rallied from $720 (October 2008) to $1265 (June 2010). This suggests that the price relationship between Gold and Silver “dislocated” in the early stage breakdown of the financial markets near the peak of the 2008-09 Housing Crisis Peak. Then, in late 2010, Silver began to move dramatically higher while Gold continued to push an additional 80%+ higher.
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Thursday, February 25, 2021
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! / Commodities / Copper
By: Gary_Tanashian
Just kidding. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway may or may not own copper stocks. I did not dig deep enough to find out. For the purposes of this post it does not matter.
With the Buffett Buys a Gold Stock! hysterics last summer, the subsequent (and inevitable) fallout and the Buffett Pukes a Gold Stock! resolution, you never know. It’s worth asking the question about what sort of investors are now true-believing in copper and the industrial metals where once upon a time last summer gold was the object of affection.
Look, the contrarian dynamics in play now are 180° from where they were last spring, coming out of the deflationary crash, when we first started to get a handle on and act upon the coming inflation aimed at reflating the economy. NFTRH has used a lot of indicators, starting then and continuing today to be on the right (inflationary) side of this macro dynamic. With all due respect and foresight about macro decision points to come, we remain on the inflationary side today.
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Thursday, February 25, 2021
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply / Commodities / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
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Wednesday, February 24, 2021
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Metals markets continue to diverge this week, with copper and platinum adding to recent breakout gains while gold struggles to find footing.
During this week’s selloff, gold revisited its lows from last November. A support level exists at $1,750, but momentum selling could take prices down a bit further before technical gauges flash deeply oversold signals.
Turning to silver, the white metal continues to show relative strength versus gold, although prices haven’t actually moved much over the past few trading days.
Despite lackluster returns in most of the precious metals so far in 2021, inflation pressures are pointing upward. On Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that U.S. wholesale prices surged by 1.3% in January.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Submissions
Stocks are predictably staging a continued recovery from the mostly sideways correction – a shallow one not strong enough to break the bulls‘ back. Credit markets are largely behaving – with the exception of long-term Treasuries, which I see as highly likely to draw the Fed‘s attention – just as I discussed in detail yesterday.
The S&P 500 keeps doing fine, and so does my open position there – in the black again. On one hand, volatility remains low regardless of intraday attempts to rise, on the other hand, the put/call ratio has risen quite high yesterday – it‘s as if the traders are expecting a shoe to drop, similarly to the end of Jan. Will it, is there any on the horizon?
Treasuries at the long-end are falling like a stone, and those on the short end (3-months) are seeing higher prices in 2021. The bond market is clearly under pressure, and exerting influence primarily upon precious metals (and commodities such as oil, which are experiencing a down day today, after quite a string of foreseeable gains).
The bearish sentiment in gold and miners is running rampant, and it‘s been only yesterday when I answered a question on ominous head and shoulders patterns in the making, at my own site.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Under the Biden administration the economy could overheat, thereby increasing inflation and the price of gold.In January, Biden unveiled his plan for stimulating the economy, which is struggling as the epidemic in the U.S. continues to unfold. Pundits welcomed the bold proposal of spending almost $2 trillion. Some expenditures, especially on vaccines and healthcare, sound pretty reasonable. However, $1.9 trillion is a lot of money! And a lot of federal debt , as the stimulus would be debt-funded!
So, there is a risk that Biden’s package would overheat the economy and increase inflation . Surprisingly, even some mainstream economists who support the deficit spending, notice this possibility. For instance, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, said that Biden’s stimulus could lead the economy to overheat, and that the conventional wisdom is underestimating the risks of hitting capacity. Although he doesn’t oppose the idea of another stimulus, Summers noted that “if we get Covid behind us, we will have an economy that is on fire”.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
Precious Metals Under Seige? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Rambus_Chartology
Lets start with the daily bar combo chart for the PM complex which shows the August trading range still under construction making lower lows and lower highs for the most part.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply / Commodities / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
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Monday, February 22, 2021
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With the yellow metal just posting its lowest close since June and a bearish pattern forming, how vulnerable is gold to a further decline?
Gold and mining stocks just broke to new yearly lows – as I warned you in my previous analyses. And that’s only the beginning.
Let’s jump right into the charts, starting with gold.
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Monday, February 22, 2021
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? / Commodities / Lithium
By: Submissions
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Sunday, February 21, 2021
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
There has been quite a bit of chatter related to precious metals lately. The rally in Cryptos, particularly Bitcoin, and various other stocks have raised expectations that Gold and Silver have been overlooked as a true hedging instrument. As these rallies continue in various other stocks and sectors, Gold and Silver have continued to trade sideways over the past 6+ months – when and how will it end?
Gold Support Near $1765 May Become A New Launchpad
My research team and I believe the recent downside trend in Gold has reached a support level, near $1765, that will act as a launching pad for a potentially big upside price trend. This support level aligns with previous price highs (May 2020 through June 2020) after the Covid-19 price collapse, which we believe is an indication of a strong support level. As you can see from the Gold Futures Weekly chart below, if Gold price levels hold above $1765 then we feel the next upside rally in metals could prompt a move targeting $2160, then $2400.
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Saturday, February 20, 2021
Gold Is the Ultimate Reserve Asset / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, delves into the movement among some companies to hold Bitcoin and gold rather than cash.
Imagine your favorite company getting sued for holding too much cash.
I know, that's a big statement. But hear me out.
Corporations, pension funds and insurance companies—anyone responsible to stakeholders—could one day face class action lawsuits if they don't diversify into other reserves assets. It's not beyond the realm of possibility, especially in today's litigious-happy world.
Michael Saylor famously bought bitcoin last year to diversify and protect the buying power of MicroStrategy's surplus cash…half a billion dollars' worth. Elon Musk recently did the same for Tesla, plowing $1.5 billion into bitcoin. Before either of these was Overtstock.com. Remember them?
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Friday, February 19, 2021
Could Silver "Do a Palladium"? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Palladium was manipulated for years. It had the largest short position relative to its size, while physical demand rose inversely to decreasing supply.
In 2018, demand became so large that it overwhelmed the shorts.
Physical palladium could not meet the market's needs and prices exploded. Shorts eventually decreased their positions until they got to a more sustainable level.
For many years, the platinum/palladium ratio, shown on proprietary charts, averaged 2.4 to 1 in favor of platinum, stretched as high as 5:1 in 2009, but then collapsed for a decade into 2020, to where 1 ounce of palladium would buy 5 ounces of platinum!
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Friday, February 19, 2021
Here’s What’s Eating Away at Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold is dodging bullets, as it comes increasingly under fire from rising U.S. interest rates and a USD that is poised to surge.
Catching unsuspecting traders in yet another bull trap , gold’s early-week strength quickly faded. And with investors unwilling to vouch for the yellow metal for more than a few days, the rush-to-exit mentality highlights a short-term vexation that’s unlikely to subside.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
The Commodity Cycle / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Donald_W_Dony
Commodity prices have remained in a prolonged downward trend since the price peak in mid-2008. Driven lower by a firming U.S. dollar (DXY) beginning in 2008-2011 and continuing until the present, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index has declined by about 80 percent over the last 13 years.
The recent rally in the S&P GSCI Commodity Index (GTX) in 2020 appears to be a reaction to the DXY price weakness and the rebound in the U.S. 10 year T-bond yields. The GTX Index moves in the opposite trend to the dollar and in a similar path to the T-bond yields (Chart1).
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
Silver Backwardation and Other Evidence of a Silver Supply Squeeze / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The effort to squeeze silver shorts may appear to have fizzled, but naked short sellers are as vulnerable as ever.
Silver futures prices are entering backwardation. That is a bad omen for anyone betting on lower silver prices.
Backwardation happens very rarely, but this condition has been a reliable indicator that higher prices are on the way each time it has occurred over the past decade.
In the futures market, silver prices generally go up based on how far away the delivery month is. Most of the time, prices for future delivery are higher than today’s spot price, i.e., the price for delivery now. There is a cost of carry – primarily driven by storage fees and opportunity cost of funds – when it comes to holding physical silver bars.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
Silver Prices Are About to Explode as Stars are Lining up Like Never Before! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Submissions
2020 was a stellar year for the precious metals, indeed one for the books.
As the pandemic hit the global economies early in the year and governments around the world began to shut everything down and the printing machines began to print ginormous amounts of money out of thin air to save their economies from total collapse, gold jumped 24%, while silver jumped nearly 50%, over double that of gold.
But that was not the real news. This is not the first time the precious metals have had a groundbreaking year. You don't have to look any further than 2011 to see these two safe haven metals have a record breaking year.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
Cannabis, Alternative Agra, Mushrooms, and Cryptos – Everything ALT is HOT / Commodities / Cannabis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent rally in Marijuana and Alternative Pharma/Agriculture stocks has been impressive, to say the least. One thing we have to remember about this sector is that it rallied to highs in 2018 and 2019, then fell out of favor for many months. The anticipation of this new sector emerging within the US, and across many areas of the globe, prompted quite a bit of excitement after 2016 when many US states voted to legalize Marijuana. Even before this date, the alternative medicine and consumer product use related to Marijuana has been heavily speculated on by investors/traders.
If we were to consider the out-of-favor phase of this sector over the past 15+ months, after the rally/hype phase which took place in 2017 and early 2018, we’ve seen many cannabis stocks collapse 70% to 85% or more recently. This downward price trend likely set up a number of incredible opportunities based on expanded marketplace opportunities, enterprise valuations, and longer-term consumer/pharmaceutical use applications for CBD and other chemical extracts. Additionally, we need to also consider what would happen if a consolidation phase were to take place in this industry – how would cannabis leaders play a role in acquiring smaller, yet important, firms with innovative technology/solutions.
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