Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 08, 2021
Gold: Crisis or Opportunity? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, delves into gold's recent price movements and discusses whether now is a good time to buy gold and gold stocks.
People…relax. It's a correction.
If you're a serious gold investor, then I sympathize.
If you're freaking out, then this is not for you. If you're anxious, then you need to check your premises.
After all, what's changed since gold reached a new all-time nominal high over $2,000 last August?
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Sunday, March 07, 2021
So, Where Is Gold's Corrective Upswing? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Can the precious metals move lower before a short-term correction, and after correcting, will they continue their medium-term downtrend?
Gold & silver reversed yesterday (Mar. 2) and the GDX rallied after bottoming right in my previous target area, but it’s still unclear if the bottom is in.
Let’s check what’s happening in the charts.
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Sunday, March 07, 2021
Gold Continues Declines on Bond Yield Jitters / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The economy seems to be recovering, while bond yields are increasing again, sending gold prices down.Not good. Gold bulls can be truly upset. The yellow metal continued its bearish trend last week. As the chart below shows, the price of gold has declined from $1,807 on Monday (Feb. 22) to $1,743 on Friday (Feb. 26).
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Friday, March 05, 2021
After Gold’s Slide, What Happens to Miners? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
After gold came down hard last week, it might be in a for a short pause and corrective upswing. What will the yellow metal’s next chapter bring for the miners? How high can they go if gold rallies from here?As gold recently moved very close to my approximate target of $1,700, the senior miners (GDX) ended Friday’s (Feb. 26) session $0.13 above my initial downside target of $31 . And while an eventual flush to the $23 to $24 range (or lower) remains on the table, a corrective upswing could be next in line.
To explain, if gold can bounce off of the $1,670 to $1,700 range, the GDX ETF will likely follow suit. Thus, while the miners are likely to move drastically lower over the medium-term, a decline of nearly 11% over the last two weeks has given way to short-term oversold conditions.
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Tuesday, March 02, 2021
Why now might be a good time to buy gold and gold juniors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Richard_Mills
Gold has been taking a beating in recent weeks, the sell-off prompted by rising bond yields which are taking the shine off the yellow metal. Higher interest rates diminish the argument for owning gold, which offers no yield.
On Wednesday, Feb. 24, spot gold dropped to $1,784.60 an ounce, just shy of $1,783.10 reached on Feb. 21, its lowest since July, 2020. The gold price climbed $342, or 22% last year, on pandemic fears, a low dollar and moribund bond yields, which for most of the year ran under 1%.
Gold has been pressured by higher yields on US Treasuries, most significantly the benchmark 10-year note, which is closing in on 1.4% (currently 1.37%), an increase of 44 basis points since the start of the year. The last time the 10-year was this high, was in February 2020, just before the start of the pandemic.
Kitco reported on Wednesday that a booming US housing market, fueled by low mortgage rates, is driving bond yields higher, after the Commerce Department showed new home sales rising 4.3%. The seasonally adjusted 923,000 units sold in January trounced consensus forecasts calling for 853,000 units to sell.
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Tuesday, March 02, 2021
Silver Is Close To Something Big / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Hubert_Moolman
There is a sense that we are close to a significant move in silver. The current season since August 2020 till now, is shaping up in a similar manner to the season of August 2019 to February/March 2020.
Silver as well as the stock market peaked in February 2020, and crashed significantly into March.
Below, is a chart of silver (top) and the Dow (bottom):
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Tuesday, March 02, 2021
Gold Stocks Spring Rally 2021 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
Following a necessary correction, the gold miners’ stocks have spent much of recent months bottoming. This healthy basing process is rebalancing sentiment, preparing the way for this sector’s next bull-market upleg. That is looking to coincide with gold stocks’ spring rally, one of their strongest times of the year seasonally. That stiff tailwind blowing behind bullish technicals and fundamentals should make for big gains.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
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Friday, February 26, 2021
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The recent FOMC minutes are hawkish and negative for the price of gold, but the Fed will remain generally dovish for some time.Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) published minutes from its last meeting in January . They reveal that Fed officials became more optimistic about the economy than they were in December. The main reasons behind the more upbeat economic projection were the progress in vaccinations, the government’s stimulus provided by the Consolidated Appropriations Act 2021, and the expectations of an additional sizable tranche of fiscal support in the pipeline:
Most participants expected that the stimulus provided by the passage of the CAA in December, the likelihood of additional fiscal support, and anticipated continued progress in vaccinations would lead to a sizable boost in economic activity.
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Friday, February 26, 2021
Kiss of Life for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Submissions
The narrow trading range in stocks continues, and the shallow sideways correction will eventually resolve itself with another upleg. The signs are countless, and the riskier part of the credit market spectrum agrees. As money flows from the Tresury markets, and sizable cash balances are sitting on many a balance sheet, there is plenty of fuel to power the S&P 500 advance.
With volatility in the tame low 20s and the put/call ratio again moving down, the bears‘ prospects are bleak. As I wrote last week, their time is running out, and a new stock market upleg approaches. It‘s the bond market that‘s under pressure, with both investment grade corporate bonds and long-dated Treasuries suffering in the accelerated decline.
Gold is the most affected, as the sensitivity of its reaction to the rising long-tern yields, has picked up very noticeably. How long before these draw both the Fed‘s attention and action – what will we learn from Powell‘s testimony on Tue and Wed? And when will the much awaited stimulus finally arrive, and force repricing beyond the metals markets?
Before that, gold remains on razor‘s edge, while silver leads and platinum flies for all the green hydrogen promise. The dollar has given back on Thu and Fri what it gained two days before, and remains in its bear market. Not even rising yields were able to generate much demand for the world reserve currency. Its lower prices stand to help gold thanks to the historically prevailing negative correlation, counterbalancing the Treasury yields pressure.
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Friday, February 26, 2021
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 / Commodities / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
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Thursday, February 25, 2021
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Gold continues to wallow near its recent low price level, near $1765. Silver has continued to trend moderately higher – but still has not broken out to the upside. Many analysts have continued to estimate when and how metals will begin the next wave higher. My research team and I believe we’ve found some answers to these questions and want to share our research.
Silver Explodes In Late-Stage Excess Rallies
The first thing we want to highlight is that Silver tends to rally excessively in the later stages of any precious metals rally. For example, in mid-2010, Silver began an incredible upside price rally after Gold rallied from $720 (October 2008) to $1265 (June 2010). This suggests that the price relationship between Gold and Silver “dislocated” in the early stage breakdown of the financial markets near the peak of the 2008-09 Housing Crisis Peak. Then, in late 2010, Silver began to move dramatically higher while Gold continued to push an additional 80%+ higher.
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Thursday, February 25, 2021
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! / Commodities / Copper
By: Gary_Tanashian
Just kidding. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway may or may not own copper stocks. I did not dig deep enough to find out. For the purposes of this post it does not matter.
With the Buffett Buys a Gold Stock! hysterics last summer, the subsequent (and inevitable) fallout and the Buffett Pukes a Gold Stock! resolution, you never know. It’s worth asking the question about what sort of investors are now true-believing in copper and the industrial metals where once upon a time last summer gold was the object of affection.
Look, the contrarian dynamics in play now are 180° from where they were last spring, coming out of the deflationary crash, when we first started to get a handle on and act upon the coming inflation aimed at reflating the economy. NFTRH has used a lot of indicators, starting then and continuing today to be on the right (inflationary) side of this macro dynamic. With all due respect and foresight about macro decision points to come, we remain on the inflationary side today.
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Thursday, February 25, 2021
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply / Commodities / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
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Wednesday, February 24, 2021
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Metals markets continue to diverge this week, with copper and platinum adding to recent breakout gains while gold struggles to find footing.
During this week’s selloff, gold revisited its lows from last November. A support level exists at $1,750, but momentum selling could take prices down a bit further before technical gauges flash deeply oversold signals.
Turning to silver, the white metal continues to show relative strength versus gold, although prices haven’t actually moved much over the past few trading days.
Despite lackluster returns in most of the precious metals so far in 2021, inflation pressures are pointing upward. On Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that U.S. wholesale prices surged by 1.3% in January.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Submissions
Stocks are predictably staging a continued recovery from the mostly sideways correction – a shallow one not strong enough to break the bulls‘ back. Credit markets are largely behaving – with the exception of long-term Treasuries, which I see as highly likely to draw the Fed‘s attention – just as I discussed in detail yesterday.
The S&P 500 keeps doing fine, and so does my open position there – in the black again. On one hand, volatility remains low regardless of intraday attempts to rise, on the other hand, the put/call ratio has risen quite high yesterday – it‘s as if the traders are expecting a shoe to drop, similarly to the end of Jan. Will it, is there any on the horizon?
Treasuries at the long-end are falling like a stone, and those on the short end (3-months) are seeing higher prices in 2021. The bond market is clearly under pressure, and exerting influence primarily upon precious metals (and commodities such as oil, which are experiencing a down day today, after quite a string of foreseeable gains).
The bearish sentiment in gold and miners is running rampant, and it‘s been only yesterday when I answered a question on ominous head and shoulders patterns in the making, at my own site.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Under the Biden administration the economy could overheat, thereby increasing inflation and the price of gold.In January, Biden unveiled his plan for stimulating the economy, which is struggling as the epidemic in the U.S. continues to unfold. Pundits welcomed the bold proposal of spending almost $2 trillion. Some expenditures, especially on vaccines and healthcare, sound pretty reasonable. However, $1.9 trillion is a lot of money! And a lot of federal debt , as the stimulus would be debt-funded!
So, there is a risk that Biden’s package would overheat the economy and increase inflation . Surprisingly, even some mainstream economists who support the deficit spending, notice this possibility. For instance, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, said that Biden’s stimulus could lead the economy to overheat, and that the conventional wisdom is underestimating the risks of hitting capacity. Although he doesn’t oppose the idea of another stimulus, Summers noted that “if we get Covid behind us, we will have an economy that is on fire”.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
Precious Metals Under Seige? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Rambus_Chartology
Lets start with the daily bar combo chart for the PM complex which shows the August trading range still under construction making lower lows and lower highs for the most part.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply / Commodities / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
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Monday, February 22, 2021
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With the yellow metal just posting its lowest close since June and a bearish pattern forming, how vulnerable is gold to a further decline?
Gold and mining stocks just broke to new yearly lows – as I warned you in my previous analyses. And that’s only the beginning.
Let’s jump right into the charts, starting with gold.
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Monday, February 22, 2021
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? / Commodities / Lithium
By: Submissions
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