Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, February 06, 2021
Be Patient, Silver Investors… It’s Only a Matter of Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
A wild week of trading across asset markets has left investors wondering what represents real value – and whether it even matters anymore.
Stratospheric GameStop shares came crashing back to earth after their gravity-defying run up. The stock had clearly been pumped to ridiculously overvalued levels based on all conventional metrics. But that didn’t deter buyers who believed they could push it to $1,000 per share before cashing out.
After dropping over 85% its nominal price peak, perhaps the GameStop craze has ended just as abruptly as it began.
Meanwhile, some online speculators have jumped aboard other bizarre market frenzies. For example, the crypto token Dogecoin – which launched a few years ago as a joke – spiked this week to a market capitalization of over $6 billion.
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Friday, February 05, 2021
Silver Short Squeeze Underway? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The populist movement to punish Wall Street is turning its focus to silver. The markets may finally force more honest price discovery. That would certainly be welcomed by metals investors long frustrated by concerns about price suppression.
Silver prices are pushed around by a handful of the world’s largest banks. The captured regulators and the Department of Justice (For the Well Connected) have done little to curb the cheating, despite piles of evidence.
The bullion banks, with their friends in government, seem to get away with coordinated take-downs of speculative longs who are daring enough to buy futures contracts or options.
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Friday, February 05, 2021
How Will Silver’s SLV ETF Recent Spike End? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
When Joe Public buys shares during a wave of euphoria, they do it close to a market top or before the beginning of a decline. Looking at you, SLV!
Silver rallied on Friday (Jan. 29), gold reversed its direction before the end of the day and so did miners, with the latter slightly underperforming gold. I wrote this before, and I’ll stress this once again today – the above is a perfectly bearish indication of an upcoming downturn in the precious metals market. This is not the first time it’s happening, and this combination of relative strengths worked reliably in the past. And we are not only just seeing that happening – we are seeing that at precisely the moment that is similar to previous patterns that were followed by sizable declines, which means that the relative bearish factors are even stronger.
This also applies to the huge inflows to the SLV ETF that we just saw most recently. Let’s take a look below.
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Friday, February 05, 2021
Silver Now In Line To Hammer The US Dollar? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Hubert_Moolman
It is still all about US dollar Meltdown. All the the assets that act as a safehaven from US dollar meltdown are taking their turn to hammer the US Dollar.
Silver has been lagging assets like gold and Bitcoin from a short and long-term perspective. Silver is still way below its 1980 all-time high, as well as its 2011 high.
When it is the time for silver to run, then you should know that trouble is about to get real (especially when $50 is surpassed). It was the start of this massive fraud when silver was demonetized , and it is soon to be the end of it, when silver will re-emerge as one of the most significant monetary assets.
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Friday, February 05, 2021
Silver Price May Rally Above $39 On Range Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Nearly 6+ months ago, our research team highlighted a unique price range that appears to be repeating itself in Silver. This price range consists of a $5.40 bullish or bearish price phase. Using our 100% measured move techniques, we’ve seen silver move higher and lower by this range over the past 10+ months and, quite interestingly, the current sideways price range in Silver is almost exactly a $5.40 range. After a bit of research related to the explosive upside price move in June 2020, where Silver rallied from $17.75 to levels over $28.75 – an $11 Candle Body Range (nearly 2x the $5.40 range), our researcher team believes the next breakout move in Silver may be another 2x or 3x rally – ranging from an $11+ rally to a $16.50+ rally. This suggests a potential upside price target in Silver near $39 to $45 if our research is correct.
Potential Silver Blastoff Once Price Clears $30
This Daily Silver Futures chart highlights the continued $5.40 range that has “bound” silver over the past 4+ months. The peak in price, near $30 represents the high price level that would have to be breached if any breakout attempt is confirmed. Initially, we expect to see the $28 (upper channel) level breached, then we need to see the $30 breached as the breakout move continues/confirms.
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Thursday, February 04, 2021
WILD Silver Market Price Swings, What to Expect Next... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As extreme market conditions drive tremendous volatility in silver spot prices, buyers are exerting unprecedented pressures on retail physical bullion products.
Record-setting buying volumes pushed the silver price toward a multi-year breakout on Monday. Silver hit an eight-year high of over $30/oz during the day, closing at $29.41.
On Tuesday, however, the silver market got slammed – along with stocks that had been heavily bid up based on internet discussion board campaigns. As GameStop (GME) shares suffered a 60% meltdown, silver plunged by close to 10% to just under $27/oz.
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Tuesday, February 02, 2021
How the Eurozone Affects Gold Price and Why You Should Care / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In our globalized economy, currency pairs have a negative correlation with gold, so how does the current EUR/USD situation impact the yellow metal?
It pays to pay attention to what is happening in Europe. As is well known, there are many currency pairs in the world, but the most traded one is the EUR/USD. How does that affect you as a gold investor? The equation goes something like this: if the economy of the Eurozone sinks and takes the EUR down with it, the USD rises – and vice-versa. Gold, which is usually inversely related to the dollar, will also either rise or decline based on the latter’s behavior.
Before we get to Europe though, let’s take a look at what gold is currently doing.
Once again, yesterday’s (Jan. 26) session was relatively uneventful on the technical front, but that doesn’t mean that the outlook is any more bullish.
Conversely, it remains bearish because of multiple developments that happened before the current pause. For instance, the invalidation of gold’s breakout above its 2011 high. Even though it had help from a sliding USD Index, the yellow metal still failed to hold above this critical support level.
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Tuesday, February 02, 2021
Silver Expectations Given GameStop Price Action and the Reddit Revolution / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Near the end of 2020, my research team identified trends, pullbacks, and overall upward/downward trends in US major markets as well as those for Gold and Silver. It is time we revisited these early 2021 predictions in relation to what is happening in the markets currently. You can revisit our original publication entitled What To Expect in 2021 Part II – Gold, Silver, and SPY.
At the time we made these predictions, we were unaware of the global phenomenon, the Reddit #wallstreetbets movement, that was taking place. Our expectations are based on our advanced predictive modeling system and what it sees as the highest probability outcome for price. The recent news that this Reddit group has targeted a number of symbols (GME, AMC, BB, amongst others), as well as SILVER, may change the dynamics/liquidity of the markets very quickly.
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Monday, February 01, 2021
How You Could've Spotted the Start of Silver's Price Slide / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: EWI
If you're a close observer of the metals market, you know that the price of silver has taken a tumble during the past several days.
Elliott wave analysis was a big help in identifying the price turn, which occurred on Jan. 6.
Indeed, here's a chart and commentary from the Jan. 6 issue of our Monday-Wednesday-Friday U.S. Short Term Update, an Elliott Wave International publication which provides near-term forecasts for major U.S. financial markets:
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Friday, January 29, 2021
Why the Gold Bull Market Will Run for Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth, the editor of Gold Resource Investor, traces previous gold bull markets and lays out what he believes is in store for the current one.
If we want to make intelligent forecasts and decisions about our future, we need to understand not only where we are today, but also how we got here. So, let's look at previous gold bull markets for some insight on what we might expect from this one.
Gold enjoyed a tremendous bull market in the 1970s. That decade was fraught with geopolitical uncertainty, an oil embargo, and big inflation to name a few. Of course, many of these factors were already in place and building up in the years before, but they came together by the early 1970s.
One of the biggest historical events was when U.S. President Nixon cut the dollar's tie to gold in August 1971. Until then, foreign nations could convert their U.S. dollar holdings to gold upon request. Many began doing so as they saw the U.S. rapidly increase spending, which weakened the U.S. dollar.
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Friday, January 29, 2021
Will Biden’s Executive Blitzkrieg Defeat Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
A new sheriff is in in town, and he’s making some rearrangements. Will the new order of things support the price of gold?What a blitzkrieg! Joe Biden certainly wastes no time in signing executive orders. Since inauguration, he introduced several policies, including mandating masks on federal property, in airports and on certain public transportation, and the end of a travel bank on some countries. Biden also terminated the construction of the wall at the Mexican border, halted the withdrawal from the WHO and placed the U.S. back on the path to rejoining the Paris climate accord.
We’re seeing a reversal of many of Trump’s policies. The new President’s actions shouldn’t materially affect the gold market , but if they manage to restore widespread confidence in the U.S. government, they could limit the safe-haven demand for gold .
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Thursday, January 28, 2021
Demand for Physical Bullion Surges – Will It Break Paper Markets? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Last year felt like a pivot point in U.S. history. The pandemic and election left the nation ideologically divided.
There seem to be only three resolutions going forward.
America will face an increasingly authoritarian federal government ruling over a largely apathetic populace, the nation will splinter, or leadership will emerge which is somehow capable of bridging the ideological divide between the American left and the right.
Gold bugs aren’t betting on bridges being built any time soon. Demand for physical metal ratcheted up to a new all-time high in January.
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Thursday, January 28, 2021
After Recent Gold High - Where to Now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold is suffering a hang-over after it’s early January highs, while the EUR/USD pair is buckling - so when gold declines, where will its bottom be?
After injecting itself with Janet Yellen’s stimulus sentiment, gold came down from its highs on Friday (Jan. 22).
And like the GDX ETF, it’s important to put gold’s recent run into context. For starters, gold is still trading below its August declining resistance line, it topped at its triangle-vertex-based reversal point (which I warned about previously ) and the yellow metal remains well-off its January highs.
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Wednesday, January 27, 2021
Will Inflation Make Gold Shine in 2021? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation will be one of the greatest upside risks for gold this year. Will it materialize and make gold shine?The report about gold in 2021 would be incomplete without the outlook for inflation . We have already written about it recently, but this topic is worth further examination. After all, higher inflation is believed to be one of the biggest tail risks in the coming months or years, and one of the greatest upside risks for gold this year .
Most economists and investors still believe that inflation is dead. After all, the only way to justify the central banks’ unprecedentedly dovish actions is the premise of low inflation. And the only way to justify the buoyant stock market amid the new highs in the number of Americans in hospital with COVID-19 is the expectation of an inflationless economic recovery this year. In other words, many people forecast the return to the Goldilocks economy after the end of the pandemic .
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Tuesday, January 26, 2021
Why You Shouldn’t Get Excited About Gold Price Mini-Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold seems to be sleeping off its latest mini-rally and lacks the momentum to reach new highs. What happens from here? Has the USD bottomed? And what does it mean when we factor in the EUR/USD pair and poor economic indicators from Europe into the equation?
Not much happened yesterday (Jan. 21), but what happened was relatively informative. And by “relatively” I mean literally just that. Gold moved lower yesterday and in today’s pre-market trading, doing so despite another small move lower in the USD Index. The moves are not big, but they are meaningful. They show that gold’s inauguration-day rally was likely a temporary blip on the radar screen instead of being a game-changer.
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Monday, January 25, 2021
Precious Metals Could Decline Before their Next Attempt to Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
My team prepares Custom Valuations Index charts to understand how capital is being deployed in the global markets alongside US Dollar and Treasury Yields. The purpose of the Custom Index charts in this article is to provide better insight into and understanding of underlying capital movements in various market conditions. Recently, we discovered the Custom Index chart shares a keen alignment with Gold (and likely the general precious metals sector). Let’s explore our recent analysis to help readers understand what to expect next in precious metals.
Weekly custom valuations index chart
The first thing that caught my attention was the very clear decline in the weekly Custom Valuations Index recently, as can be seen in the chart below. The second peak on the Custom Valuations Index chart occurred on the week of August 3, 2020. Gold also peaked at this very same time. This alignment started an exploratory analysis of the Custom Valuations Index and the potential alignment with the precious metals sector.
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Friday, January 22, 2021
Silver Price 2021 Roadmap / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth, the editor of Silver Stock Investor, looks at silver's bull markets since the 1970s and discusses what he thinks lies ahead. There's no consensus on whether silver is in its second or third secular bull market since the 1970s. That's because people define bull markets in different ways.
But as I'll show you, it's not that important.
What we do know is that silver enjoyed a huge bull market from about 1971 until 1980, and then another major bull run from about 2001 until 2011.
Most secular bull markets run through a period, usually about half-ways on the time scale, where the commodity's price falls by about 50%, sometimes more. This is an observation by the legendary commodities investor Jim Rogers.
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Friday, January 22, 2021
Here’s Why Gold Recently Moved Up / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold moved higher as the USD Index moved lower in today’s pre-market trading. Before providing you with my thoughts on why that happened and what the implications are, let’s see exactly what transpired.
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Friday, January 22, 2021
How to Survive a Silver-Gold Sucker Punch / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Anyone who owns precious metals, mining shares or metals' ETFs knows the drill.
First, gold and silver begin to establish an uptrend on the charts. Analysts (like us) start writing about how prices are getting ready to make an upside run.
Then "out of nowhere" thousands of highly margined futures contracts hit the market on the short side, "re-painting" the charts, sending terror into the hearts of stackers and those who believe in "honest money."
The reality is that honest money is being manipulated for personal gain by dishonest traders, enabled by "regulators" who, to put it charitably, look the other way.
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Thursday, January 21, 2021
Gold Price Drops Amid Stimulus and Poor Data / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The price of gold has declined further amid incoming U.S. President Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus and poor economic data, which is a bearish sign.The weakness in the gold market continued last week. As the chart below shows, the London P.M. Fix declined below $1,840 last Friday (the price of the yellow metal later declined even further, i.e., below $1,830).
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