Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, February 17, 2021
The Gold & Gold Stock Corrections Are Normal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Corrections in Gold and Gold Stocks are completely normal in an inflationary macro market phase
See also The Normalcy of Gold posted on February 16.
Every week I notice the agony ratcheting up incrementally. While the rest of the casino takes off to the speculative heavens, gold sits on its heavy ass and the gold miners go nowhere in a downward-biased perma-correction. Or so it seems. It’s all normal and I’ll explain why.
First of all, it is not healthy to be railing against unseen nefarious manipulative interests. That is emotion and emotion has to be kept out of it (and yes, I get as aggravated as the next guy sometimes, but it cannot affect your plan or you will be the victim, the mark). You have to take what the market gives you and roll with it. All markets are manipulated when you consider that the greatest manipulation of all is courtesy of the Federal Reserve, implementing its MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), err, that is TMM (Total Market Manipulation) toward desired ends.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2021
Gold / Silver: What This "Large Non-Confirmation" May Mean / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: EWI
When a trend is strong, related markets tend to move in unison.
However, when a trend is near exhaustion -- either bullish or bearish, "non-confirmations" often occur. This is when one market continues to rise (or fall), but a related market does not.
As a case in point, the Feb. 3 U.S. Short Term Update, an Elliott Wave International thrice weekly publication which provides near-term forecasts for major U.S. financial markets, discussed the details of a non-confirmation between the price action of gold and silver. Here's a chart and commentary:
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Tuesday, February 16, 2021
Major Optimism for Platinum, Silver, and Copper / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: MoneyMetals
Attention in the metals markets shifted this week from silver to copper and platinum. While big moves in silver and gold prices may be coming down the road, the monetary metals are currently taking a back seat to electrical and automotive metals.
A massive push by the Biden administration to replace gasoline vehicles with electric vehicles is helping to crank up demand for copper. Anything involving electricity involves copper – and lots of it.
Electric vehicles and their massive batteries contain an average of 180 pounds of the metal. That’s six times the copper that’s used in gasoline cars. Even larger quantities of copper are required for EV charging stations and necessary upgrades to electrical grid infrastructure.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
Will Tesla Charge Gold With Energy? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Tesla has supported the price of Bitcoin, but it can affect gold as well.The bull market in cryptocurrencies continues. As you can see in the chart below, the price of Bitcoin has recently increased to almost $47,000 (as of February 10). The parabolic rise seems to be disturbing, as such quick rallies often end abruptly.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
Morgan Stanley Warns Gasoline Industry Is About to Become Totally Worthless / Commodities / Gas - Petrol
By: OilPrice_Com
The average energy investor is by now well aware of the sector's monumental shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Coal-powered power plants have been shuttering at an alarming clip as the price of electricity from natural gas and renewables undercuts them while wind and solar generation continue to gain the ascendancy.
But nowhere has this change been as dramatic as the transport industry, with EV titans such as Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and NIO Ltd. (NYSE:NIO) now commanding substantially higher valuations than their imposing ICE brethren, General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford Motors (NYSE:F). Indeed, the global EV sector now carries a higher valuation than the global ICE sector despite accounting for less than 3% of new vehicle sales in 2020.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
Debts Lift Gold - Precious Metal Prices Will Rise on a Deluge of Red Ink / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nick_Barisheff
The world is awash in debt, an immense, unfathomable ocean of financial obligations. The stack of IOUs is so enormous, the balances so large, they will never be fully settled without dreadful consequences to the global economy. This tsunami of debt was unleashed in 1971, when Nixon ended the backing of the US dollar with gold.
Since 1971, US debt and gold price have increased greatly. Traditionally, rampant increases in US debt occur when trying to pull the economy out of an economic downturn as displayed in the spikes that occurred in 2008 and 2020. Considering the amount of debt that has already been taken on to combat the pandemic combined with the rising uncertainty involving vaccinations and new strain variants, it can be anticipated that the worst is yet to come. As Democrats push towards passing an additional $1.9 trillion stimulus package, governments are willing to take on previously unforeseen levels of debt to prop up the economy during the pandemic. This could lead to a promising future for the price of gold.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
Platinum Begins Big Breakout Rally / Commodities / Platinum
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you were not paying attention, Platinum began to rally much higher over the past 3+ days – initiating a new breakout rally and pushing well above the $1250 level. What you may not have noticed with this breakout move is that commodities are hot – and inflation is starting to heat up. What does that mean for investors/traders?
Daily Platinum Chart Shows Clear Breakout Trend
First, Platinum is used in various forms for industrial and manufacturing, as well as jewelry and numismatic functions (minting/collecting). This move in Platinum is more likely related to the increasing inflationary pressures we’ve seen in the Commodity sector coupled with the increasing demand from the surging global economy (nearing a post-COVID-19 recovery). The most important aspect of this move is the upward pricing pressure that will translate into Gold, Silver, and Palladium.
We’ve long suggested that Platinum would likely lead a rally in precious metals and that a breakout move in platinum could prompt a broader uptrend in other precious metals. Now, the combination of this type of rally in Platinum combined with the Commodity rally and the inflationary pressures suggests the global markets could be in for a wild ride over the next 12 to 24+ months.
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Saturday, February 13, 2021
Short the Fed, Buy Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, explains why corporate America is beginning to see gold as a necessary reserve asset.
Yellen is Treasury Secretary. Powell is Fed Chair. And Sanders is head of the Senate Budget Committee.
Most of the time, it's impossible to tell the future. But there are exceptions. Right now, there's no room left to read between the lines. The goals, and outcome, are obvious.
America, along with the rest of the world, is going to try and spend its way out of the pandemic crisis.
This crystal ball is perfectly clear, and Wall Street's been peering into it. That's why stocks are near all-time highs. It's why, increasingly, the savviest managers from corporate America are also catching on, and acting.
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Friday, February 12, 2021
Energy Metals Lead the Charge / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: MoneyMetals
Gold and silver aren’t the only viable plays in the metals space – and they aren’t currently the leaders.
On Wednesday, both copper and platinum rallied up to multi-year highs. Rhodium, meanwhile, currently commands $21,000 per ounce – yes, per ounce – making it one of the most valuable elements on the planet.
What’s driving these “energy” metals? Besides ongoing currency depreciation and the risks of higher inflation, which will help boost all hard assets over time, rising demand for electricity in general and electric vehicles in particular.
President Joe Biden recently decreed that the federal government must transition its entire fleet of cars, vans, and trucks to electric motors.
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Thursday, February 11, 2021
What’s Next for the Silver Price Roller Coaster? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
After a frenzy of Reddit induced activity that captivated everyone, silver painfully gave back what it gained. What’s next for the white metal?
As the precious metals’ version of moral hazard, silver tipped over the flowerpot, and left gold to clean up the mess. After silver’s short squeeze mania ended in tears on Feb. 2, the white metal gave back 97% of its squeeze -induced gains. Conversely, bearing the brunt of the market’s wrath, gold gave back 237% of the momentum-induced gains.
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Thursday, February 11, 2021
Precious Metals Charging Higher As Stocks Keep Pushing On a String / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Submissions
Stocks keep cooling off at their highs, and calling for a correction still seems to be many a fool‘s errand. Does it mean all is fine in the S&P 500 land? Largely, it still is.
Such were my yesterday‘s words:
(…) It‘s still strong the stock market bull, and standing in its way isn‘t really advisable. With the S&P 500 at new highs, and the anticipated slowdown in gains over Friday, where is the momentary balance of forces?
Still favoring the bulls – that‘s the short answer before we get to a more detailed one shortly.
The anticipaded gold rebound is underway, and my open long position is solidly profitable right now. In line with the case I‘ve been making since the end of January, the tide has turned in the precious metals, and we are in a new bull upleg, which will get quite obvious to and painful for the bears.
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Sunday, February 07, 2021
MainStreetBets on Silver and Wins / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth, editor of Silver Stock Investor, explains why he believes silver's movements this past week were just a small taste of its opening act.
TEMPORARILY OUT OF STOCK.
That's the message most hopeful physical silver buyers have been getting since the last days of January. Odds are bullion dealers going to have a tough time keeping any silver in stock.
Everyone is buying, and no one is selling the physical metal. Dealers are asking for 35% premiums…and that's if you can get your hands on any silver at all.
And yet I remember well, less than a year ago in mid-March, when the world started a major lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Gold and silver bullion dealers were nearly completely sold out within days. In some cases, silver premiums reached historic highs, near 100% of spot prices.
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Saturday, February 06, 2021
Be Patient, Silver Investors… It’s Only a Matter of Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
A wild week of trading across asset markets has left investors wondering what represents real value – and whether it even matters anymore.
Stratospheric GameStop shares came crashing back to earth after their gravity-defying run up. The stock had clearly been pumped to ridiculously overvalued levels based on all conventional metrics. But that didn’t deter buyers who believed they could push it to $1,000 per share before cashing out.
After dropping over 85% its nominal price peak, perhaps the GameStop craze has ended just as abruptly as it began.
Meanwhile, some online speculators have jumped aboard other bizarre market frenzies. For example, the crypto token Dogecoin – which launched a few years ago as a joke – spiked this week to a market capitalization of over $6 billion.
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Friday, February 05, 2021
Silver Short Squeeze Underway? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The populist movement to punish Wall Street is turning its focus to silver. The markets may finally force more honest price discovery. That would certainly be welcomed by metals investors long frustrated by concerns about price suppression.
Silver prices are pushed around by a handful of the world’s largest banks. The captured regulators and the Department of Justice (For the Well Connected) have done little to curb the cheating, despite piles of evidence.
The bullion banks, with their friends in government, seem to get away with coordinated take-downs of speculative longs who are daring enough to buy futures contracts or options.
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Friday, February 05, 2021
How Will Silver’s SLV ETF Recent Spike End? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
When Joe Public buys shares during a wave of euphoria, they do it close to a market top or before the beginning of a decline. Looking at you, SLV!
Silver rallied on Friday (Jan. 29), gold reversed its direction before the end of the day and so did miners, with the latter slightly underperforming gold. I wrote this before, and I’ll stress this once again today – the above is a perfectly bearish indication of an upcoming downturn in the precious metals market. This is not the first time it’s happening, and this combination of relative strengths worked reliably in the past. And we are not only just seeing that happening – we are seeing that at precisely the moment that is similar to previous patterns that were followed by sizable declines, which means that the relative bearish factors are even stronger.
This also applies to the huge inflows to the SLV ETF that we just saw most recently. Let’s take a look below.
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Friday, February 05, 2021
Silver Now In Line To Hammer The US Dollar? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Hubert_Moolman
It is still all about US dollar Meltdown. All the the assets that act as a safehaven from US dollar meltdown are taking their turn to hammer the US Dollar.
Silver has been lagging assets like gold and Bitcoin from a short and long-term perspective. Silver is still way below its 1980 all-time high, as well as its 2011 high.
When it is the time for silver to run, then you should know that trouble is about to get real (especially when $50 is surpassed). It was the start of this massive fraud when silver was demonetized , and it is soon to be the end of it, when silver will re-emerge as one of the most significant monetary assets.
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Friday, February 05, 2021
Silver Price May Rally Above $39 On Range Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Nearly 6+ months ago, our research team highlighted a unique price range that appears to be repeating itself in Silver. This price range consists of a $5.40 bullish or bearish price phase. Using our 100% measured move techniques, we’ve seen silver move higher and lower by this range over the past 10+ months and, quite interestingly, the current sideways price range in Silver is almost exactly a $5.40 range. After a bit of research related to the explosive upside price move in June 2020, where Silver rallied from $17.75 to levels over $28.75 – an $11 Candle Body Range (nearly 2x the $5.40 range), our researcher team believes the next breakout move in Silver may be another 2x or 3x rally – ranging from an $11+ rally to a $16.50+ rally. This suggests a potential upside price target in Silver near $39 to $45 if our research is correct.
Potential Silver Blastoff Once Price Clears $30
This Daily Silver Futures chart highlights the continued $5.40 range that has “bound” silver over the past 4+ months. The peak in price, near $30 represents the high price level that would have to be breached if any breakout attempt is confirmed. Initially, we expect to see the $28 (upper channel) level breached, then we need to see the $30 breached as the breakout move continues/confirms.
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Thursday, February 04, 2021
WILD Silver Market Price Swings, What to Expect Next... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As extreme market conditions drive tremendous volatility in silver spot prices, buyers are exerting unprecedented pressures on retail physical bullion products.
Record-setting buying volumes pushed the silver price toward a multi-year breakout on Monday. Silver hit an eight-year high of over $30/oz during the day, closing at $29.41.
On Tuesday, however, the silver market got slammed – along with stocks that had been heavily bid up based on internet discussion board campaigns. As GameStop (GME) shares suffered a 60% meltdown, silver plunged by close to 10% to just under $27/oz.
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Tuesday, February 02, 2021
How the Eurozone Affects Gold Price and Why You Should Care / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In our globalized economy, currency pairs have a negative correlation with gold, so how does the current EUR/USD situation impact the yellow metal?
It pays to pay attention to what is happening in Europe. As is well known, there are many currency pairs in the world, but the most traded one is the EUR/USD. How does that affect you as a gold investor? The equation goes something like this: if the economy of the Eurozone sinks and takes the EUR down with it, the USD rises – and vice-versa. Gold, which is usually inversely related to the dollar, will also either rise or decline based on the latter’s behavior.
Before we get to Europe though, let’s take a look at what gold is currently doing.
Once again, yesterday’s (Jan. 26) session was relatively uneventful on the technical front, but that doesn’t mean that the outlook is any more bullish.
Conversely, it remains bearish because of multiple developments that happened before the current pause. For instance, the invalidation of gold’s breakout above its 2011 high. Even though it had help from a sliding USD Index, the yellow metal still failed to hold above this critical support level.
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Tuesday, February 02, 2021
Silver Expectations Given GameStop Price Action and the Reddit Revolution / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Near the end of 2020, my research team identified trends, pullbacks, and overall upward/downward trends in US major markets as well as those for Gold and Silver. It is time we revisited these early 2021 predictions in relation to what is happening in the markets currently. You can revisit our original publication entitled What To Expect in 2021 Part II – Gold, Silver, and SPY.
At the time we made these predictions, we were unaware of the global phenomenon, the Reddit #wallstreetbets movement, that was taking place. Our expectations are based on our advanced predictive modeling system and what it sees as the highest probability outcome for price. The recent news that this Reddit group has targeted a number of symbols (GME, AMC, BB, amongst others), as well as SILVER, may change the dynamics/liquidity of the markets very quickly.
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