Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, April 24, 2021
Gold Price Reversal? Have No Fear! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 closed in the the red, vindicating my bearish sentiment going into Monday‘s session. And as I have tweeted during the day, the sellling doesn‘t appear to be over. Friday‘s:
(…) selling wave before the close looks to indicate hesitation ahead. Even though VIX is attacking the 16 level, and the put/call ratio ticked higher, the bulls are little disturbed thus far.
While VIX rose yesterday, it finished only a little above 17 – the tide in stocks hasn‘t turned to fear even temporarily in the least, and the current consolidation would still be one to be bought.
That‘s the result of ample liquidity in the system, which is denting the rotations. Yields moved higher yesterday, and defensives including tech or Down Jones Industrial Average rightly felt the pressure more than value stocks.
Thursday, April 22, 2021
Gold Rebounds Amid Positive Economic Reports / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Several economic indicators have surprised us on the positive side. Nevertheless, the price of gold has rebounded.Finally! The price of gold has been rising recently . As the chart below shows, the yellow metal rebounded from the late March bottom of $1,684 to above $1,770 on Friday (Mar. 16). This could be a promising start to the second quarter of 2021, which looks better than the first.
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Thursday, April 22, 2021
Gold Price Next Key Level / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Gold rallied last week toward the top of a down-trending channel that has been in force since prices peaked last summer.
A breakout attempt in early January failed. The gold market subsequently slumped to a potential double-bottom low in March around $1,675/oz.
The $1,800 level now looms as a critical technical juncture.
The recent bounce could either fail around there… or gather the strength to finally break out of the multi-month corrective phase.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Gold, USDX: The Board is Set, the Pieces are Moving / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
A culminating point has been reached. With the USD Index being backed up by solid fundamentals, can gold hold the line?
Have you ever noticed how often the language of war is used in finance and economics articles? A given company is on the defensive or the offensive, a stock is pushing forward, something else is rallying, positions are being taken… who will fire first? It’s the case of continuous push and pull factors that makes military strategies and concepts relevant to the subject of money.
Now, when it comes to gold and the USD Index, it’s not the great battle of our time (in reference to today’s title), as Gandalf explained to Pippin in The Lord of the Rings, but it’s a battle, nonetheless. For the yellow metal, it could even be the deep breath before the plunge. We’ll soon find out.
With an epic struggle for supremacy set to unfold in the coming weeks, battle lines have officially been drawn: with the USD Index hovering near its 50-day moving average and gold recapturing its 50-day MA, negatively correlated assets have officially collided. And, as the rules of engagement specify that to the victor go the spoils, which one is likely to wave the white flag?
Wednesday, April 21, 2021
World Economies Need to Find a Lot More COPPER! / Commodities / Copper
By: Richard_Mills
As the third most-consumed metal on the planet, behind iron ore and aluminum, copper is all around us. Found naturally in the Earth’s crust, copper was among the first metals used by early humans, dating back to the 8th century, BC.
Three thousand years later homo sapiens figured out how to smelt copper from its ore, and to alloy it with tin to create bronze. Bronze was useful for tools and weapons, making it one of the most important inventions in the history of civilization.
The Copper Age
Nothing happens without copper; as it turns out, not even civilization itself. Beginning around 5,000 BC, the “Chalcolithic” (from the Greek “khalkos” for copper and “lithos” for stone) or Copper Age was a transitionary period between the Neolithic (Stone Age) and the Bronze Age.
It was during this time that copper was introduced as a material that could be worked into metal, paving the way towards the use of bronze later on.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Pausing Stocks and Gold Fireworks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
The S&P 500 went back to relentless rallying on Friday, yet the selling wave before the close looks to indicate hesitation ahead. Even though VIX is attacking the 16 level, and the put/call ratio ticked higher, the bulls are little disturbed thus far – and they‘re unlikely to get upset. Whatever consolidation comes, would be a sideways one – one to be bought.
That‘s the result of ample liquidity in the system, which is denting the rotations. Yields can go up or down, yet the sectoral adjustments to the downside aren‘t largely there, and that extends beyond the recently discussed financials. It concerns tech specifically, as the sector appears at a turning point – it defended gains:
(…) without too much help from the behemoths, and value stocks surged. …. Retail sales outdoing expectations and unemployment claims dropping sharply – the economic recovery is doing fine, manufacturing expands, and inflation doesn‘t yet bite. We‘re still in the reflationary stage where economic growth is higher than the rate of inflation or its expectations.
Gold loved the TLT upswing and Powell‘s assurances about not selling bonds back into the market in rememberance of eating a humble pie after the Dec 2018 hissy fit in the stock market (isn‘t this the third mandate actually, the cynics might ask). I called for the sharp gains across the precious metals board sending my open position(s) even more into the black.
Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Precious Metals and Miners Start of New Longer-Term Bullish Trend - P2 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This second part of our research article related to the new Bullish price phase in Precious Metals and Miners will continue to explore the potential range and targets for higher price trends.
In the first part of this article, I discussed how precious metals have started moving higher in somewhat of a stealth mode – not really drawing a lot of attention from traders. While other commodities and market sectors continue to rally, Gold and Silver have recently been setting up a new momentum base over the past few weeks. If our research is correct, we may soon see a stronger bullish price rally in precious metals which may drive miners 3x to 5x higher as Miners have greater Alpha than precious metals.
Are The Stars Aligning For A Big Market Shift Focusing On Gold & Silver?
Another key factor is that we’ve recently shifted away from an appreciation cycle phase and into a depreciation cycle phase. This new Depreciation cycle phase suggests the US Dollar may enter a decidedly downward overall trend while the US stock market may continue to move higher with increased volatility and extended price rotation ranges. Additionally, this new Depreciation cycle phase clearly suggests precious metals will begin an upward price trend that may last well into 2027~2028 or longer.
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Tuesday, April 20, 2021
Are Precious Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Almost in stealth mode, precious metals have begun to bottom and start a new upside price trend while the US stock market focused on the FOMC meeting a few weeks back and current economic data. Gold, Silver, and many of the Miner ETFs recently started a moderately strong push higher – almost completely behind the scenes of the hype in the markets regarding IPOs and Bitcoin’s new recent highs.
All the Gold traders know that when Gold starts a new leg higher, it could mean inflation fears are being amplified in the global markets and/or fear is starting to creep back into the markets. After the recent rally in the US major indexes and as we plow through Q1:2021 earnings, it makes sense that some fear and inflation concerns are starting to take precedence over other concerns. Will the markets just continue to push higher and higher? Or are the market nearing some type of intermediate-term peak after rallying from November 2020? Only time will tell…
The recent move in Gold and Silver prices suggests traders and investors are starting to act more aggressively to hedge against downside market risks. My research team and I believe these upside trends may confirm an upside breakout trend in Precious Metals and Miners within 2 to 4+ weeks. You may find some of our earlier research articles related to metals, including our April 15th price targets for Gold, Silver, and Platinum, and our research from March 26th where we explore an impending miners breakout rally.
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Monday, April 19, 2021
Gold - You Can Win a Battle, but Still Lose the War / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold had a good day yesterday, but as it hits the $1,770 resistance line, it will be anything but easy for the yellow metal. The real test has begun.
And so, it happened. Gold moved right to its target level that seemed to be the max that it could reach, but that didn’t seem to be the most likely outcome. Just because it wasn’t the most likely outcome, doesn’t make it impossible. The “most likely” can happen all the time – after all its only “most likely” not “certain” or “inevitable”.
Gold declined right after its triangle-vertex-based reversal, but it appears that the market participants didn’t want to give up on the bullish tone until gold finally reached its previous lows and highs.
Just like magnets, the strong support and resistance lines draw investors and traders, and it seems that we saw this play out once again.
Monday, April 19, 2021
Will Interest Rates Rally Further Push Gold Price Down? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The recent rally in the bond yields pushed gold prices down, but this trend won’t continue forever, as the Fed will likely be forced to step in.In March, we saw a continuation of the rally in bond yields that started in February. As the chart below shows, the 10-year real interest rates have soared from -1.06 on February 10 to -0.66 percent on March 23.
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Monday, April 19, 2021
Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
The S&P 500 red candle and then some – erased in a day, that‘s what you get with the Fed always having your back. The staircase climb certainly looks like continuing without any real breather. Whatever steep ascent you compare it to (Jun or early Sep 2020), this one is different in that it doesn‘t offer but token corrections. Not that it would be reasonable to expect a steep downswing given the tide of liquidity, but even sideways trading has become rarer than it used to be.
With the VIX still below 17 and the put/call ratio in the middle of its slowly but surely less complacent range, the path of least resistance is higher – the signs are still aligned behind the upswing to go on:
(…) Don‘t pin your hopes too high for a (sharp) correction though. Yes, [on Wednesday] stocks listened to the weakening corporate credit markets, and the daily retreat in long-dated Treasuries inspired some profit taking in tech. Quite some run there as yields stabilized, which has turned XLK from very stretched to the downside of its 50-day moving average, to the upside extreme. Tesla also followed suit but I doubt this is a true reversal of tech fortunes.
Just at yesterday‘s moves – technology surged higher without too much help from the behemoths, and value stocks surged. Even financials ignored the sharp retreat in yields. Yes, that‘s the result of retails sales outdoing expectations and unemployment claims dropping sharply – the economic recovery is doing fine, manufacturing expands, and inflation doesn‘t yet bite. We‘re still in the reflationary stage where economic growth is higher than the rate of inflation or its expectations.
Sunday, April 18, 2021
Central Banks May Ramp Up Gold Buying / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Ignore what central bankers are saying; instead, watch what they are doing.
While they poo-poo gold or pretend it doesn't exist, global central banks have been quietly but aggressively accumulating gold bullion for several years now. The Central Bank of Russia, for example, has been a consistent buyer of gold.
Other major central banks have also been acquiring and holding the metal, although some scaled back last year following the pandemic and record-high prices for the metal.
Given more favorable market conditions and greater risks to holding U.S. dollar reserves, central banks may soon ramp up their gold buying again.
The Hungarian Central Bank cited “long-term national and economic policy strategy objectives” for its move.
Friday, April 16, 2021
Gold’s Singular Role / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
When it comes to analyzing gold and gold prices there seems to be no limit to the explanations of cause and effect. The number of things presumed to be fundamental, or which are correlated to gold, has grown exponentially as gold receives more attention in the media and from the public.
The state of confusion that exists regarding gold and gold prices is exacerbated by the contradictions and conflicting arguments of almost all concerned parties. This includes investors, traders, analysts, and brokers (make sure your broker is safe to trade).
Rather than a desire to understand gold and its singular role, most investors and others are interested in gold only when its price is going up. They buy it and then look for reasons to justify their expectations of even higher prices.
They do look for explanations as to why the price goes down, of course; especially when that happens after they have taken a position on the long side. By then, it is usually too late.
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Wednesday, April 14, 2021
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout / Commodities / Cannabis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
My research team and I continue to believe the Cannabis/Alternative sector is poised for a big trend in 2021 and 2022. Over the past few years, this sector has continued to trend lower after the hype of 2016~2018 – back when everyone was getting into the Cannabis industry as multiple US states authorized recreational and medical use. After the 2018 peak, followed by the early 2019 moderate price recovery, this entire industry sector fell out of favor with investors for almost 2 full years.
MJ Pennant Setup Almost Complete
The peak in the MJ, Alternative Harvest ETF, in September 2018 was $45.40. The lowest price since that peak was in March 2020 at $8.81 – that’s an 80% decline in price. Currently, MJ is trading near $22.31 and we’ve seen a tremendous recovery after the 2020 US elections. These elections resulted in a wave of enthusiasm for Cannabis and Alternative supply companies as it was widely expected the Democrats would move quickly to legalize Cannabis and other illegal drugs after their win.
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Monday, April 12, 2021
Another Gold Stocks Upleg / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks suffered a rocky start to 2021, rolling over into an extended correction after a young upleg prematurely failed. The resulting deeper lows left sentiment overwhelmingly bearish, with this contrarian sector deeply out of favor. But over the last five weeks or so, gold stocks have powered higher again in another young upleg. This one has a far-stronger foundation given the underlying gold setup.
The leading and dominant gold-stock benchmark and trading vehicle remains the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. It held $14.2b in net assets in the middle of this week, a massive 30.6x bigger than the next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor! Several weeks ago I analyzed the top 25 GDX gold miners’ latest quarterly results, which revealed this sector now enjoys incredibly-strong fundamentals.
While gold averaged $1,876 per ounce in the recently-reported Q4’20, the big GDX gold miners reported average all-in sustaining costs of $1,038 per ounce. That implied stellar $838-per-ounce profit margins! That fantastic profitability fueled record revenues, adjusted earnings, operating cash flows, and treasuries at the GDX-top-25 gold miners. That was their sixth quarter in a row of soaring mid-double-digit earnings growth!
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Friday, April 09, 2021
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It’s tempting to say that miners are showing strength compared to gold based on the GDX’s performance, but other mining proxies say otherwise.
Just because a house is standing doesn't mean its foundations are solid, and that's exactly the case with the miners.
There’s one extra thing that I would like to point out about mining stocks’ technical picture today (Apr. 8), and that’s their performance relative to gold.
Thursday, April 08, 2021
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Antonius_Aquinas
After Brexit, there has been a growing number of voices within the European Union and among various nationalistic groups arguing that English should be replaced as the official language since now only Ireland and Malta retain English.
The loudest quarter calling for a change has come from the French who, not surprisingly, want their own tongue to become the lingua franca of the EU. Eric Zemmour, a French conservative commentator, asserts, “I think this is the time to launch a counter-offensive in favour of French, to recall that French was the original language of EU institutions.”*
A return to French, however, has its difficulties with other nationalist groups particularly those from the EU’s dominant economic power, Germany.
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Thursday, April 08, 2021
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
Dear reader,
Almost exactly a year ago, oil prices went negative $40.
Today, with crude trading at $60, you're hearing lots of opinions as to what's next.
"Electric car revolution" ... "reopening economy" ... "end of commute" ... "start of travel season"
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Wednesday, April 07, 2021
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Richard_Mills
Years of neglecting its critical metal supplies is catching up with the United States, as demand for the raw materials needed to build a new green economy that rejects fossil fuels gears up.
US President Joe Biden just announced a $2.3 trillion infrastructure spending package aimed partially at shifting the US transportation system from gas and diesel-based to battery-powered, and more support for renewable energies such as wind and solar over carbon-based sources like natural gas.
The plan is big on promises and appears to benefit many sectors, but details are scant on how the country will source the metals needed for repairing and replacing traditional “blacktop” infrastructure, and minerals that will feed a brand new “mine to battery” supply chain.
This article takes a deep dive into the US metals problem and how it might work with its northern neighbor to address it.
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Monday, April 05, 2021
Why the Financial Gurus Are WRONG About Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Longtime gold bashers are gloating over the precious metal’s recent price slump. Gold prices have declined more than 10% in the first quarter of 2021.
But the perma-bears shouldn’t feel vindicated. After all, anyone who heeded their advice missed out on gold’s record run in 2020 – and on many years of outperformance since 2001.
While gold bugs are often accused of having an unhealthy obsession with the metal, the “anti-gold” bugs reveal a deep-seated bias that can only be explained as irrational or dishonest.