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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Clearing The Decks For The Crude Oil Subprime Rout / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

The Clown Prince of Overpriced Oil Bows Out
Andy Hall, the celebrated speculator on rising oil prices and related asset values is bowing out. Not long ago, he was still loudly telling the boomers that oil prices would inevitably bounce and could soon hit $150 a barrel, partly due to US shale oil "being a dud". Hall railed at anybody, like me, or Hall's pet hate, Citigroup's Edward L. Morse, who dared to argue that $75 for a barrel of oil is a very reasonable price – in fact a lot more than today's price! US natural gas and world coal, for example, provide energy at around $25 to $30 per barrel equivalent. Is oil really worth that much more? If so, why?

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Commodities

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Crude Oil Price Tumbles After OPEC Releases 2015 Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The demand for oil in 2015 will drop to its lowest level since 2002 because of an oversupply of crude and stagnant economies in China and Europe, according to OPEC's latest forecast. And that's just one of several sour estimates.

OPEC's monthly report said demand for the cartel's oil will fall to 28.9 million barrels per day next year, 280,000 barrels lower than its previous forecast and the lowest in 12 years. Add to that a new report from the US government's Energy Information Administration (EIA), which also cut its 2015 forecast for growth in global oil demand by 240,000 barrels per day, down to 880,000 barrels per day.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Where Are Crude Oil Bulls? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil hit a fresh multi-year low after the market's open, the commodity rebounded in the following hours supported by a weaker greenback. In this way, light crude gained 0.40%, but still remains under the previous lows. What's next?

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Commodities

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Where the Big Global Oil Players are Putting Their Money Now / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Marina and I are headed back to sunny Florida. It will be a welcome change from the brisk weather in London.

Not that I had much time to take in the scenery…

While my better half sampled the shops in Kensington High Street, I was in high level meetings in a place known as “The City.”

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Commodities

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Elliott Wave Charts Point to Shocking Countertrend for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: The_Gold_Report

It's not just surfers who scrutinize wave patterns. Steven Hochberg, chief market analyst at Elliott Wave International, uses the Wave Principle to predict the movements of commodities and the stock market based on a number of factors, including sentiment. In this interview with The Gold Report, he reads the waves and shares their indications that the stock market is headed for a downtrend, while commodities will move up, although not in a direct line.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Gold Price Surges As Greece Crashes - Eurozone Debt Crisis Part II Cometh / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

Gold jumped 2.3 percent to a six-week high yesterday as sharp falls on stock markets globally led to renewed demand for gold as a haven.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Fade the Gold Short Squeeze Ahead of the FOMC / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Bob_Kirtley

The over-hyped Swiss gold referendum led to volatile trading for the yellow metal last week. That continued into this week with safe haven buying after the announcement of an early election in Greece and the resultant short covering continued that volatility. However, it’s very plausible that the coming week will show gold with even greater swings.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

And On The Seventh Day God Shorted His People / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Raul_I_Meijer

And on the Seventh Day, God sold his shares? What do you think, is He short the market? Short oil? Oil does look up a tad, but then the dollar lost about a percent vs the euro, so that definitely feels like a headfake from where I’m sitting. The dollar lost more vs the euro than oil gained against the dollar. Gold and silver have somewhat more solid looking gains, but that’s against the same feverish buck, so what does it really mean? We’ll have to wait and see.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Trading Some Gold For Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Mike_Shedlock

Last Friday I decided the gold:silver ratio was so out of line that I swapped some of my gold for silver. The ratio is a measure of how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold.

Exchange Rate

My exchange rate last Friday was as follows: "USD 38.2355/goldgram & USD 16.3589/silver ounce" where 1 gram (g) of gold Equals 0.032 troy ounces (oz t) in gold.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Norway's Falling Crude Oil Output / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

New oil projects are being scrapped in Norway amid falling production and low oil prices.

Long held up as the model for managing oil abundance, Norway has painstakingly sought to prevent the problems that occur with other natural resource-based economies, such as corruption, slow economic growth, currency appreciation, and subsequently, deindustrialization.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Physical Gold and Silver vs. Paper Gold and Silver: How Much Markup Are You Willing to Pay? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Mike_Shedlock

I am a gold bull, but I am also concerned about seriously misleading hype regarding alleged shortages.

For example, a friend recently emailed an article that contained this claim: Gold Selling for at least 50% over Spot in Asia-Rob Kirby.

According to Rob Kirby "In the Asian market, if you could find physical bullion as cheap as spot plus 50%, you'd be doing really, really, really well and you'd be hard pressed to find serious tonnage at that price in Asia."

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Crude Oil and the War Cycle 2015 and Beyond / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Clif_Droke

This year witnessed the bottom of one of several components of the 120-year cycle of inflation and deflation. The cycle to which I'm referring is the 24-year cycle. Of particular relevance is that this cycle answers to the cycle of war.

Since 1894 when the previous 120-year Grand Super Cycle bottomed and a new one began, there have been four military conflagrations at each subsequent bottom of the 24-year cycle. Most of these wars have been major in scope. The first such instance of war occurred in the years leading up to 1918, which saw the first 24-year cycle bottom of the current 120-year cycle. The 24-year cycle that bottomed that year saw the ending to the First World War. Remembering that the final "hard down" phase of the 24-year cycle approximates to almost two-and-a-half years, this represented roughly the second half of that major war, a war that involved the United States.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

Gold, Oil, Copper... Commodities Breakdown / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Harry_Dent

I have been commenting on how the CRB commodity index – including oil, gold and copper – have been trading in a sideways pattern for the past three years and that at some point they would break down.

The break down just happened. Oil broke below support at $75 to $80, copper broke below $2.90 to $3, gold broke below $1,180 and the CRB broke below $270.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

7 Questions Gold Bears Must Answer / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jeff_Clark

A glance at any gold price chart reveals the severity of the bear mauling it has endured over the last three years.>

More alarming, even for die-hard gold investors, is that some of the fundamental drivers that would normally push gold higher, like a weak US dollar, have reversed.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

Crude Oil Price Sinking Or Rebounding / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil lost 1.65% as a stronger U.S. dollar and news that Saudi Arabia lowered the price of oil for buyers in the U.S. and Asia continued to weight. As a result, light crude moved lower for the fourth time in a row and closed the week at its lowest level since mid-Jul 2009.

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Commodities

Monday, December 08, 2014

Why Wall Street and Governments Hate Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_Pento

Gold is hated more than ever by both governments and the financial services community. This is because it has now become imperative to keep the illusion of confidence in sovereign debt and paper currencies. To that end, a gentleman by the name of Willem Buiter, Citigroup's chief economist, shot into the media spotlight by writing a note on the day before Thanksgiving stating his belief that gold is in a six thousand year-old bubble.

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Commodities

Monday, December 08, 2014

Agri-Equities: New All Time High / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

China now surpasses the U.S. in real economic terms. "Real", most simply defined, is the production and consumption of actual goods and services with prices ignored. In that "real" process the Chinese economy becomes a receptacle for the resources of the world, tangible and human. Some in the world, like Agri-Equities, that service those needs have benefitted, and will certainly do so in the future. Those that sell to the biggest customers in the world, China, will be the success stories. Top tier Agri-Equities are one of those beneficiaries. Our index of First Tier Agri-Equities, as shown in chart below, is at a new, all time high for the second month. That action was recently confirmed by composite Agri-Equity Index also hitting a new all time high recently.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Gold-Backed Currency? Not Any Time Soon, But Be Prepared / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_Noonan

Last year, many in 2013 were calling for the price of gold and silver to double, and more! Then came 2014 and those dashed hopes were pushed back to the second half of 2014. Earlier, in the first half of the year, we said that the second half could likely be more of the same, as in 2013, [See 2014 Could Be A Yawner]. With just a few weeks away from the end of the year, prospects for 2015 can equally be brought into question re PM price appreciation.

Is the petrodollar on the way out? More frequently, the signs say yes. Is a gold-backed currency standard waiting to replace it? Beliefs, at least in the PM community, remain high, but facts to substantiate the beliefs are hard to find. Sure, China and Russia have been and continue to be the largest buyers of physical gold, but is either the Renminbe or the Ruble ready for Prime Time? The short answer is no, and more emphatically for the Ruble. While the Renminbe is becoming more widely viewed as a potential replacement for the "dollar," China has nowhere near the capability of a world reserve currency system and all that it entails.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Opecology Or The Art Of Saying Nothing / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

The Threat of $57 Oil
The recent head of the World Petroleum Council, Renato Bertani speaking from Houston in interview with Russia Today TV, December 1st,  was set an increasingly ridiculous set of questions by the energetic if dumb interviewer lady in the Moscow bureau. She asked him if Peak Oil was true and if ISIS or ISIL was pricing its stolen oil (she said $30 a barrel) at the “right price”? Would oil get really cheap before it disappeared (not cheap after it disappeared)? Is fracking sustainable and are US producers lying when they say $57 a barrel is a price they can live with? Will hydrogen-fueled cars wipe out world oil demand? Would global warming terrify us so much we woke up one day and totally renounced oil? How will OPEC stabilize and control the market and set the right oil price for everybody (she didn't suggest we ask Goldman Sachs how they do it). Time for a sucker's rally!

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Commodities

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Crude Oil Price Slump: 7% Hit for Global Hotel Stock Prices and 25% Hit for Dubai Hotel Revenues Is Predicted / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

There is an increasing adjustment to the idea that the “totally unexpected” slump in oil prices to below $70 may prevail for some time.

The model that predicted since 2011 Brent would, at some point, bottom at $67 which is just 3% below where it reached yesterday (not bad for a prediction made three years ago)... says the slump will last four years.

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