Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Energy Demand Collapse Followed by Supply Collapse / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nicole_Foss
As we have noted many times, energy is the master resource, and has been the primary driver of an expansion dating back to the beginning of the industrial revolution. In fossil fuels humanity discovered the ‘holy grail’ of energy sources – highly concentrated, reasonably easy to obtain, transportable and processable into many useful forms. Without this discovery, it is unlikely that any human empire would have exceeded the scale and technological sophistication of Rome at its height, but with it we incrementally developed the capacity to reach for the stars along an exponential growth curve.
Monday, August 17, 2015
The Coming Silver Price Rally Will Outperform All Previous Ones / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Hubert_Moolman
The Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) is a key indicator in the analysis of the silver and gold markets. This ratio (or chart of the ratio) is probably one of the most difficult to analyse. One has to take a real close look at the ratio in order to find what actually drives the ratio up or down.
For example, from about after the end of the Second World War to the early 70s there was an economic boom with the Dow rallying significantly during those years. During the same period the GSR actually kept falling significantly until it actually bottomed in 1968.
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Monday, August 17, 2015
Why has Druckenmiller Dived in Gold and Copper / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Four weeks after gold tumbled to 5-year lows on revelation of far lower Chinese gold holdings than previously anticipated, gold bulls find out that one of the world's greatest hedge fund managers made gold the biggest holding in his fund in Q2. He also loaded up on 2 large miners.
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Saturday, August 15, 2015
Gold And Silver Market Bottoming? Big Rally Imminent? Reality Check Says NO / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Michael_Noonan
The developing events over the past few months are so varied, seemingly unrelated but are all tied in, just not in a cognitive manner that makes sense, and almost all them are based upon lies by one government after another, the worst offender being the US.
We find it hard to make a cohesive explanation as to their impact. This increasingly maze of events is mean to confuse, to deflect. It is a key element of the elites creating problems, reactions [usually confusion or panic by the masses], and offering solutions. Cyprus and Greece are similar examples. The Ukrainian coup by the US, sanctions against Russia that have so badly backfired. China an added part of the SDR, then maybe not. The list is much longer.
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Saturday, August 15, 2015
The World is Awash in Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
...But does that mean that oil prices will only go down from here?
In this new interview with Elliott Wave International's Chief Energy Analyst, Steve Craig, you'll learn where he sees prices going next.
*Editor's note: this interview was recorded on August 12; the price low cited in the video was broken on August 13.
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Saturday, August 15, 2015
Gold and Silver Shaken, Not Stirred / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Submissions
Chart Freak write: After a solid 5 day rally, gold sold off on Thursday, and the precious metals miners were sold-off indescriminetly. Both GDX and GDXJ were down almost 6%, leading many to be shaken out of position on the pullback. For me, these events are expected and become opportunities, so lets examine the charts to see why.
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Friday, August 14, 2015
Gold Miners’ $1200-Cost Fallacy / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Zeal_LLC
The entire gold-mining sector was crushed last month, suffering a full-blown panic. This was triggered by an extreme shorting attack on gold by American futures speculators. As fear-blinded traders rushed for the gold-stock exits, they claimed their selling was rational because gold miners’ very existence was threatened by such low gold prices. But that’s a total fallacy, this sector has no problem weathering sub-$1200 gold.
The recent pain in gold stocks has been excruciating. This sector’s benchmark of choice these days is Van Eck Global’s Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, better known by its symbol GDX. It closely mirrors gold stocks’ long-time leading sector index, the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index that trades as HUI. The carnage in these two gold-stock metrics has been incredible, shattering the resolve of most contrarian traders.
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Friday, August 14, 2015
Gold and Silver Stocks Get a Reprieve / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The precious metals sector has held recent lows and a rebound is underway. Gold held $1080/oz for three straight weeks and has pushed as high as $1126/oz this week. The gold miners (GDX and GDXJ) surged the first half of the week and Silver has also gained. We believe that this move is more likely to be a relief rally before Gold ultimately tests $1000/oz rather than the start of a new bull market.
Friday, August 14, 2015
Crude Oil's Slippery Slope: How Far Will Prices Fall? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
One prominent analyst says oil prices will drop much further
Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video.
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Friday, August 14, 2015
Supply and Demand Will Rescue Gold Mining Stocks Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: The_Gold_Report
Money managers Doug Loud and Jeff Mosseri of Greystone Asset Management LLC. have some simple advice for gold investors: Relax. Supply and demand will reassert its reign quite soon, and, when that time comes, both gold and gold equities will appreciate quickly and significantly from their current levels. In this interview with The Gold Report, they highlight several producers and explorers with the management, cash and projects needed to spring forward when the market turns.
The Gold Report: The gold sector entered full-blown panic mode in July with the Bloomberg analysts forecasting a dip below $1,000 per ounce ($1,000/oz) this year, and Deutsche Bank forecasting $750/oz. Is this just fear feeding on fear, or is there something else going on?
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Friday, August 14, 2015
Gold and Silver Offer The Most Profitable Secular Opportunity Today / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldSilverWorlds
July was a horrible month for precious metals prices. Sentiment reached levels never seen before. As metals and the miners broke through a long term support line, so did pessimism.
To get an idea of the level of pessimism, we are including a very long term chart going back to 1992 (courtesy of Sentimentrader). As readers can see, market sentiment in the last 2 years is worse than the bear market lows of 1998 – 2000.
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Friday, August 14, 2015
Commodity Prices Weakness Persists / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: John_Mauldin
In today’s Outside the Box, good friend Gary Shilling gives us deeper insight into the global economic trends that have led to China’s headline-making, market-shaking devaluation of the renminbi. He reminds us that today’s currency moves and lagging growth are the (perhaps inevitable) outcome of China massive expansion of output for many products that started more than a decade ago. China was at the epicenter of a commodity bubble that got underway in 2002, soon after China joined the World Trade Organization.
As manufacturing shifted from North America and Europe to China –with China now consuming more than 40% of annual global output of copper, tin, lead, zinc and other nonferrous metal while stockpiling increased quantities of iron ore, petroleum and other commodities – many thought a permanent commodity boom was here.
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Friday, August 14, 2015
Desolation Row: The Silver Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: DeviantInvestor
Silver peaked in 1980 and then crashed into “Silver Desolation Row” in 1999 – 2001, like now.
The 1970s decade was the time for commodity price increases and inflation. The 1980s and 1990s saw a preference for paper assets and stocks, while commodities, gold, and silver prices collapsed.
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Friday, August 14, 2015
The Fed, Exter’s Pyramid and Gold – When John Exter Met Paul Volcker / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
DAILY PRICES
Today’s Gold prices were USD 1,117.35, EUR 1005.54 and GBP 715.56 per ounce.
Yesterday’s Gold prices were USD 1,116.80, EUR 1003.23 and GBP 717.18 per ounce.
[LBMA AM prices]
Thursday, August 13, 2015
China's Yuan Devaluation Creates This Profit Play for U.S. Oil Investors / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: When the People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut the value of the yuan by 2% on Tuesday, it was the biggest one-day drop for the currency in more than 20 years.
Crude oil and stocks sank on Tuesday, as well, with oil scraping six-year lows.
Tuesday's action would have been enough… but then the yuan plunged all over again on Wednesday, despite PBOC efforts to prop it up, triggering even more volatility.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Gold Price at a Crossroads / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Dan_Norcini
Gold has had a nice run off the Chinese yuan devaluation news with short covering the dominant reason behind the buying.
Markets that have a decent sized speculative short position are always subject to bouts of sharp price rises as shorts scurry for cover. The question is not whether or not shorts are covering - they are. The question is, "Are there large numbers of specs who are willing and eager to assume NEW LONG positions?"
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Crude Oil Price Reverses - Was that THE Bottom? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Crude oil declined yesterday, but the session was not without a rebound. In fact, the move higher continues also today as black gold is at almost $44. Have we just seen a major triple bottom in crude oil?
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Gold Miners Are Saying It's Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Bob_Loukas
Back in early July I published the view that we needed “Just a Little Bit More“ downside to complete the gold Investor Cycle. All of the indicators and tools we used to spot these turns were firmly in place and it had become a matter of cleaning out the remaining bulls before turning. At the time of publishing, gold stood at $1,130, and my expectation was for one more decline, below $1,110, in order to complete the Cycle and form a major Investor Cycle Low.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
Gold & Silver Correlations for August 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Mike_McAra
Correlation seems almost like a magical word. In fact, most people don’t have to use this term more often than a couple of times a year. In the world of investing, however, correlation is an important concept which has to do with how different assets move in relation to one another. Before we even dive into what correlation means in the world of statistics, we’ll focus on the intuition behind it.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
Saudi Crude Oil Strategy: Brilliant Or Suicide? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In the last quarter of 2014, in the face of possible oversupply, Saudi Arabia abandoned its traditional role as the global oil market's swing producer and therefore it role as unofficial guarantor of existing ($100+ per barrel) prices. In October, Saudi sources first prepared the market with statements that the country would be comfortable with oil prices as low as $80 per barrel for "a year or two." At the November OPEC meeting, the Saudi oil minister, Ali Al-Naimi, publicly announced Saudi Arabia would allow market forces to set prices. He argued that rapidly growing production outside OPEC made the existing status quo unviable, and that lower prices in the short term would increase prices in the longer term through reduced investment and ultimately benefit all OPEC members.
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