Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, August 03, 2015

Gold Price Near Intermediate Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Savage

Let me remind everyone that intermediate cycle lows (ICL), and especially yearly cycle lows in the metals are always hard to hold onto. Even if you catch the exact bottom, they usually resist for a week or more and try to shake everyone off. The metals bottom differently than the stock market. When stocks form an ICL they rocket launch straight up. Traders get instant gratification and a market that quickly moves away from their stop. Gold on the other hand forms much more difficult bottoms. It will usually churn back and forth for a week or longer as traders try to decide whether or not a bottom is forming. It’s during this churn, and especially after a destructive bloodbath phase, that traders can rationalize any number of reasons to get knocked off the bull no matter how good the setup is. Understandably after witnessing a devastating bloodbath phase traders are nervous and skittish that the drop is going to continue.

Sunday, August 02, 2015

Commodity Prices Slump Signals Slow Economic Growth Outlook / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Dan_Norcini

In my opinion, the surest method for ascertaining what the sentiment is towards overall global economic growth prospects is the commodity sector performance.

When sentiment is upbeat towards global growth, commodities tend to be in a strong uptrend on the charts. The reverse is true when prospects turn sour; commodities have a general tendency to sell off.

Sunday, August 02, 2015

Gold And Silver Charts Are The Compelling Story. Fundamentals Do Not Apply / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

Not in 2013, not in 2014, and so far, nothing positive for the price of gold and silver has developed in what looks like for the balance of 2015. Most of the highly regarded gold and silver sites and bloggers have been expecting an upside breakout, some even saying an explosive breakout. As we have been saying for the past few years, the "eyes" have it. Just by following developing price activity, in chart form, it is more than obvious that price continues to languish at recent 4 -5 year lows with NO signs of ending.

It does not matter how much gold China has bought, how many gold/silver coins have been sold to the public, even record numbers. It does not matter how low is the existing supply for silver and its excessive and growing demand. So far, it has not mattered how the miners have been suffering and are closing down operations.

Saturday, August 01, 2015

The Fed Can't Stop the Commodity Bear Market / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Only a shift in investor psychology -- i.e. the Elliott wave pattern -- can

For many commodity investors, the last four years have felt like one long, bad dream. The kind where you're tied to a railroad track as a train heads straight for you -- in slow motion. You can't move, can't scream, can't do anything but lay there and wait for the point of impact. On July 29, that point seemed closer than ever when the S&P GSCI index, a measure of a basket of 24 commodities, plunged to its lowest level in 13 years.

Saturday, August 01, 2015

Mining Companies, Regulators Deathly Silent after Midnight Raid on Gold Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: MoneyMetals

With gold and silver on the defensive following a dramatic midnight raid on gold prices last week, Mike Gleason reached out to Chris Powell, Secretary Treasurer at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, also known as GATA to discuss possible gold price manipulation.

Mike Gleason: Several days ago, we had another attack on the gold market – right as it was holding above a critical price support zone. Someone sold several billions of dollars in gold futures contracts during the wee hours of the night immediately before the Chinese trading day began. It happened during a time of low liquidity like it normally does, and it took the price down over $40 in the matter of a few seconds, halting trading twice for a brief period. What are we to make of all this Chris?

Friday, July 31, 2015

Gold’s Amazing Resiliency / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has certainly had a rough summer, facing withering selling pressure from record futures shorting.  The resulting new secular lows have greatly exacerbated the already-extreme bearish psychology long plaguing this metal.  But considering the howling headwinds gold has suffered in recent years, it has actually proved amazingly resilient.  This indicates strong latent demand due to accelerate as sentiment shifts.

The consensus view on gold today is overwhelmingly bearish, with virtually everyone convinced it is doomed to spiral lower indefinitely.  They argue that gold yields nothing, so therefore why bother owning it?  Especially with the first Fed rate hikes in over 9 years looming!  As interest rates begin inexorably mean reverting higher, rising yields will leave gold even farther behind.  Keynes’ “barbarous relic” can’t compete.

Friday, July 31, 2015

In Gold We Trust 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

As always in June, Incrementum AG (an independent asset management & wealth management company based in the Principality of Liechtenstein) published its annual “In Gold We Trust” report, the extended version of which can be downloaded here. We know that it was published one month ago; however, it took a while to dig through the 140-page text. Because it offers many interesting insights into the current global economy and the gold market, we provide a short summary for you today.

Friday, July 31, 2015

Gold and Silver Markets in Limbo / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Gold and silver remain close to their lows for the year, discouraged as usual by dollar resilience. Precious metals appear to be in limbo: speculative buyers are discouraged above all by their disappointing performance during the Greek crisis, and the possibility that a Chinese stock market crash might lead to forced selling of gold by Chinese speculators. So far, the latter concern has proved unfounded with public demand in China accelerating on lower prices and exceeding global mine output on its own.

Friday, July 31, 2015

Silver – A Century of Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

The graph below shows 100 years of silver and crude oil prices on a log scale using the annual average of daily prices.  Example:  The price of silver peaked in 1980 at about $50 but the smoothed annual average was about $16.

Friday, July 31, 2015

Demand for Gold Bullion Surges – Perth Mint, and U.S. Mint Cannot Meet Demand / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- Perth Mint sees surge in demand and cannot keep up with demand
- “Our biggest restriction is the amount of unrefined gold we’re getting in from producers”
- Very high demand for Perth Mint coins, bars coming from Asia, U.S. and Europe
- U.S. Mint sees highest sales of gold coins in over 2 years
- U.S. Mint restrictions on silver coins due to very high demand
- Gold sentiment has moved from despondency to depression (see chart)
- Current negative sentiment despite strong demand is good contrarian indicator

Friday, July 31, 2015

Are Silver Spot Prices Poised for an Increase? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Submissions

Jenna Cyprus writes: As anyone with significant investments in silver knows, prices have been on a steady decline for the better part of four years now. In fact, you have to go all the way back to the beginning of 2012 to find prices above $40. Since then, the trajectory has firmly pointed downwards. Currently you can purchase an ounce of silver for less than $15. Analysts suspect this won’t be the case for long. While ‘experts’ have predicted for months now that silver is finally positioned for growth, there seems to be more tangible proof for today’s predictions. Things finally appear to be looking up and now may be the time to diversify your portfolio.

Friday, July 31, 2015

Get Ready for the Next Advance in Solar Energy / Commodities / Solar Energy

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Despite limitations, solar has reached grid parity in a number of regions in the U.S. That means sun power is as cost efficient as electricity utilizing more conventional sources like coal and natural gas. But it still has some limitations that prevent it from becoming the main source of power.

Usually the discussion of how solar energy will develop centers on improving the inversion process or combining greater efficiency in generation with a better battery technology to store what is produced.

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Threat Of Cyber Warfare the “Other Reason To Own Physical Gold” Warns Rickards / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- “Physical gold is a non-digital asset. You can’t attack it with cyberwarfare” – Rickards
- Greek crisis was necessary step towards fiscal unity in Europe
- “Euro creators want to force common fiscal control – Eurobonds”
- Currency wars between U.S. and China may resume next year
- Rickards emphasises importance of holding physical gold
- Eschews “paper gold” in the form of ETFs, futures or unallocated storage
- Gold insurance against “catastrophic event” … “on the horizon”

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

More Ritholtz on Gold, and Another Response / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

Anyone who has been bearish on gold for the last 4 years has been right.  They have been right in Euros and though the trend appears to have been gently changing over the last year or two, they have been right in Canada & Aussie (i.e. commodity currencies) dollars as well.  Certainly, they have been right that gold as measured in most global stock markets has been (and remains) bearish.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Crude Oil Price Is Lower – and You’re Richer / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Shah Gilani writes: On July 16, I gave you the real story on why oil prices are falling – and a trade to make you some easy money.

Since then, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude oil benchmark, is down 5%. As of midday yesterday, the October $15 puts on the United States Oil Fund LP ETF (NYSE ARCA: USO) that I recommended buying when they were trading at 50 cents each were up 40%, and trading at 70 cents each.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Has China Manipulated The Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The financial press and blogosphere are still exploring the topic of Chinese reserves. Recently, some voices have arisen that China supported the recent plunge of the gold price in order to boost its reserves. Are these opinions justified?

The disappointment increase in China's reserves led to a heated debate. On Friday, two articles were published (here and here), which suggest that China manipulated the gold market by under-reporting its official reserves to lower the gold price and increase its reserves.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Why the Energy Sector’s Perfect Storm Is About to Blow Over / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors wrotes: There is a “perfect storm” brewing in the energy sector.

And as storms go, this one has certainly attracted attention. The ongoing concern over supply gluts both in the U.S. and abroad has combined with a Chinese stock collapse to drive down the price of oil.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Is the Gold Price Manipulated? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clif_Droke

One of the most commonly held beliefs among gold investors is that the market for gold is heavily manipulated. It has become an article of faith among gold advocates that the price is subject to direct control by government, central banks and other parties who have a vested interest in depressing the gold price. In this commentary we'll explore this belief and try to arrive at a firm conclusion as to its veracity.

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Will Crude Oil Price Decline Continue? -Video / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

Elliott Wave International's Chief Energy Analyst tells you what he sees next for crude

In this new interview, Steve Craig, editor of Elliott Wave International's Energy Pro Service, shows you what extreme readings in some of his market indicators mean for crude from here.

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Gold & Silver Money Has Devolved Into Debt and Plastic / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

Central banks will disagree;

Keynesian economists probably disagree;

Too-Big-To-Fail banks don’t care;

But I think the following is generally accurate regarding the devolution of gold and silver money.