Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, February 07, 2018
Gold Nearing Cycle Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jim_Curry
In terms of time, a short-term secondary low is due for Gold here in the current timeframe, originally projected for the February 7th date, but with the normal plus or minus variance of a day or two in either direction. The current decline comes as a result of the 10, 20 and 34-day cycles, each of which have been pointing south off the 1370 swing top - and with the combination of the same at or into normal bottoming territory.
The chart below shows the smallest of the above waves - the nominal 10-day cycle - which is currently 13 days along from its last labeled trough, and thus is looking for a short-term bottom:
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Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Will Hawkish Fed and Strong Payrolls Blow Out Gold Rally? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
At the end of last week, gold encountered a couple of headwinds. Will they topple the yellow metal?
First Gust of Wind: Fed
As we predicted, the last FOMC meeting turned out to be more hawkish than expected. On January 30, we wrote:
(…) the Fed has its own meeting this week. We could see a hawkish strike, especially that it will be the last Yellen’s meeting and she has nothing to lose. The changing composition of the policy committee could also point to a more aggressive pace of rate hikes in 2018. If that happens, the U.S. dollar may catch its breath, which would exert downward pressure on gold prices.
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Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Gold Rises As Global Stocks Plunge and Bitcoin Crashes 70% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Gold gains 0.6% in USD and surges 1.7% in euros and pounds
– European stocks fall more than 3% at the open after sharp falls in Asia
– DJIA falls 1,175 points, S&P 500 down 4.1% and Nikkei plummets 4.7%
– Gold rises from $1,330 to $1,342, £942 to £960 and €1,067 to €1,085 /oz
– Bitcoin crashes another 10% and has now plummeted by 70% to below $6,000
– Increased risk aversion will drive safe haven demand for gold as its hedging properties are appreciated again
Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Gold, U.S. Dollar, And Inflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Kelsey_Williams
Gold is all the rage right now. And some apparently think that if you aren’t outright ‘bullish’ you are unaware or unintelligent.
Those who ply the trade for a living (i.e. advisors, investors, traders, writers) all seem to be on the same page. Even fundamentalists and technical analysts are teammates. Sort of.
The U.S. dollar is in the headlines, so naturally, most of the explanations and expectations for gold’s ‘big move’ center on U.S. dollar weakness. And they should. But some additional explanation is necessary. Some say that a weaker U.S. dollar ’causes’ a higher gold price. That is like saying that lower interest rates cause higher bond prices. That’s not the way it works.
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Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Gold Takes Center-stage in Dollar Scare / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Trump-Mnuchin qualifiers in dollar statements tell all
“While it’s [a strong dollar] described as a desirable and intended thing, it might not be a choice. The size of dollar holdings of reserves (in dollar-denominated debt) and the dollar’s role as the dominant world currency are anachronisms and large relative to what one would want to hold to be balanced, so rebalancings should be expected over time, especially when U.S. dollar bonds look unattractive and trade tensions with dollar creditors intensify.” – Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Securities
Much is made of the direct inverse correlation between gold and the dollar, but acknowledging that relationship does not really get us anywhere. The bigger question is whether or not the dollar will continue to track lower as it has over the past 18 months or will it suddenly reverse course and head higher.
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Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Silver and Mining Stocks Fresh New 2018 Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Silver was just breaking to new highs, gold stocks (HUI) were above the 205 level and gold was at levels not seen since August 2016. Gold and silver bulls were cheering. They are not cheering anymore. Even though the above was the case just several days ago, it was all invalidated, just like we expected it to be. Based on what happened on Friday, silver and mining stocks are at their new 2018 lows and their entire 2018 performance is a one huge bearish reversal. Where will precious metals in the following weeks?
Lower. Likely much lower.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
Best Commodity Trading Opportunities to See Now / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Special 5-day event (free): "Best Commodity Opportunities to See Now"
Dear reader,
Volatility is picking up steam -- and it's more than just Bitcoin and U.S. stocks that deserve your attention.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
Will the Great Unwind Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In the August 2017 edition of the Market Overview, we analyzed the hawkish turn among major central banks. We pointed out that “Europe has recently been among the most surprising positive economic regions in the world”, which should induce the ECB to taper its quantitative easing program in the fall, supporting both the EUR/USD exchange rate and the price of gold. This is exactly what happened. The dollar lost more than 3 percent in 2018 against the euro, while gold jumped above $1,350 (as of January 25). As we noted in the previous edition of the Market Overview, “the beginning of the year is usually a good period for the gold prices.”
Saturday, February 03, 2018
What’s Behind the Rising Gold and Treasury Bond Yields / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Harry_Dent
Three trends I’ve been forecasting have been happening in the last year:
- The strong Trump rally.
- Rising 10-year Treasury bond yields.
- And rising gold prices.
They’re all related to late stage inflation and the expected tax cuts, which have materialized.
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Friday, February 02, 2018
Radical Gold Under Investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
Global investors are radically underinvested in gold today. Years of relentless stock-market rallying to endless new record highs have left this classic alternative investment deeply out of favor. But this gold-demand ebb is ending. The same central banks that fueled these extreme stock markets through epic easing are reversing to massive and unprecedented tightening. As stocks roll over, gold investment will return.
Gold is a unique asset class established over millennia that should play a critical role in every investment portfolio. Unlike virtually everything else, gold generally rallies when stock markets inevitably suffer their periodic major selloffs. That effectively makes gold the anti-stock trade. A substantial gold allocation is essential and necessary to diversify and protect stock-heavy portfolios, moderating their overall volatility.
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Friday, February 02, 2018
Gold Price February Correction to Below $1300 - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The gold price had a good start for 2018, rising from 1310 at the start of January to a high of $1367 with the most recent trading price of $1351. Which is set against my forecast for 2018 for the gold price to first target resistance $1375, an eventual break of which would propel the Gold price towards a 2018 target of $1500, and then further for the Gold price to ultimately target a trend towards $1800.
Friday, February 02, 2018
Can The Shale Oil Boom Avoid These Bottlenecks? / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas
By: OilPrice_Com
Shale companies continue to drill at a frenzied pace, adding rigs and breaking U.S. oil production levels with each passing week. Yet, the oil production is becoming increasingly geographically concentrated. Not only is the Permian basin accounting for much of the new oil production in the U.S., but a relatively small number of counties within the Permian are home to most of that action.
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Friday, February 02, 2018
Gold Stocks GDX Consolidation May Continue / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
While I would love to suggest that the market is ready to break out in a big way, I still have no clear indications that is the case just yet. And, this comes more so from the GDX than either of the metals themselves. So, I am going to focus on the GDX in this update.
The action over the last two days has been a lot more convoluted than one would think by simply looking at the chart. In fact, since we hit the lows yesterday, the action actually presents 4 different ways to potentially be counted from an Elliott Wave structure, with us even completing all of the (b) wave with one more minor high in the GDX tomorrow.
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Friday, February 02, 2018
Gold And Gold Miners Preparing for Big Move / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Just a few days ago we alerted our members and followers to a massive setup in the Palladium market that had not been seen in years. This chart formation provides an incredible opportunity for a trader to take advantage of and profit from the expected price decline. We alerted our members and followers on January 24th of this move.
As of today, Palladium has rotated downward by over 9% from the recent highs and should continue to move lower as this multi-month rotation extends. Even though this initial move lower (-9%) reaches our initial predicted target levels, we still believe support won’t be found till prices reach near the $1000 price level. If that support fails to hold, the price of Palladium could fall to the $900. This total move could be over -20% by the time this downward swing ends.
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Thursday, February 01, 2018
Gold Price Forecast 2018 - February Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The gold price had a good start for 2018, rising from 1310 at the start of January to a high of $1367 with the most recent trading price of $1351. Which is set against my forecast for 2018 for the gold price to first target resistance $1375, an eventual break of which would propel the Gold price towards a 2018 target of $1500, and then further for the Gold price to ultimately target a trend towards $1800.
Thursday, February 01, 2018
2018 Gold Price Forecast and Predictions / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldSilver
Most price forecasts aren’t worth more than an umbrella in a hurricane. There are so many factors, so many ever-changing variables and dynamics, that even the most educated guess almost always ends up wrong.
Further, some forecasts base their predictions on one issue. “Interest rates will rise so gold will fall.” That’s not even an accurate statement, let alone a sensible prediction (it’s the real rate that affects gold prices—the rate minus inflation).
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Thursday, February 01, 2018
Four Key Trends for Gold Market in 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The World Gold Council published its gold market outlook for 2018. Will gold continue its January rally or should we expect declines?
Solid Gold’s Performance in 2017
The World Gold Council begins its report with a short summary of 2017. The organization points out that gold performed relatively well, given the fact that the global economy picked up, risk assets rose in value, while the Fed hiked interest rates three times. Against this backdrop, the price of gold in U.S. dollars rose 13.5 percent, the biggest annual gain since 2010, actually outperforming many other asset classes.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Plunging Stocks to Push Gold Higher? Fat Chance! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The bearish case for gold continues as fresh new bearish confirmations have just emerged. You have already read about gold’s huge weekly volume, gold stocks’ underperformance and many other factors. Yesterday’s session provides us with even more bearish details. But, there’s one thing that looks promising for gold bulls – the possibility of a big and sharp decline in the stock market. Some expect money coming out of the stock market to flow into precious metals, thus pushing their prices higher. As much as we love gold (and silver even more) as a very long-term investment, in today’s analysis, we dismiss the above stock-based hope.
Tuesday, January 30, 2018
Why Is The Shale Oil Industry Still Not Profitable? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Echoing the criticism of too much hype surrounding U.S. shale from the Saudi oil minister last week, a new report finds that shale drilling is still largely not profitable. Not only that, but costs are on the rise and drillers are pursuing “irrational production.”
Riyadh-based Al Rajhi Capital dug into the financials of a long list of U.S. shale companies, and found that “despite rising prices most firms under our study are still in losses with no signs of improvement.” The average return on asset for U.S. shale companies “is still a measly 0.8 percent,” the financial services company wrote in its report.
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Tuesday, January 30, 2018
Gold Sits in the Central Banks’ Claws / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Central banks remain powerful creatures. Will gold escape from their grip?
Bank of Japan
It’s a hot period in central banking. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy on hold. Kuroda tried to convince the markets that the BoJ won’t follow the Fed towards an exit from easy monetary policy soon. “We haven’t reached the stage of thinking about how to handle an exit [from monetary easing]”, he said. The BoJ Governor also insisted that the bank is fully committed to easy monetary policy and is not about to scale back its stimulus.
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