Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, January 29, 2018

Gold & Gold Stocks Approaching Resistance / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold and gold stocks have enjoyed an excellent rebound since their December lows. Over the past six weeks Gold rebounded from a low of $1238 all the way to $1365 in recent days. The miners meanwhile rebounded nearly 18% (GDX) and 21% (GDXJ). However, these markets are approaching important resistance levels and at a time when sentiment is becoming stretched and the US Dollar has become very oversold.

Take a look at the charts of Gold, GDX and GDXJ. Gold has reached the September 2017 highs while GDX came within 2%-3%. GDXJ is lagging but came within less than 5%. Another round of buying over a few days should be enough to push the miners to resistance.

Sunday, January 28, 2018

Precious Metals and US Dollar Set To Rollover / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We’ve been warning our members that this move was going to happen and it looks like it is just starting to initiate.  The US Dollar and Metals markets are about to rotate in dramatic form over the next few weeks – possibly months.  Right now, what we can tell you is that our cycle analysis and adaptive learning models are showing we are in for a very dramatic move in these markets.

This first chart is a GOLD Weekly chart showing our adaptive learning price modeling system and the predicted price activity going forward.  One can easily see this weekly double top formation is predicting prices to drop by nearly 5~8% over the next few weeks before basing near the $1250 to $1275 levels.  This should be a very clear warning to metals investors that Gold and Silver are setting up for a lower price rotation before the next big move higher.

Saturday, January 27, 2018

Resurgent US Oil Industry Priming the Economic Pump / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Richard_Mills

Crude oil prices dropped from $110 a barrel in the summer of 2014 to about $30 in January 2016. The effect on oil producers and oil-producing countries was dramatic. The Russian ruble plunged, and the Canadian dollar slipped to below 70 cents US for the first time since 2003, kicking the country into recession and snuffing out the oil boom in Alberta. Many foreign companies operating in the high-cost Canadian oil sands pulled up stakes.

Friday, January 26, 2018

Gold Price Upleg Breaking Out / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s strong upleg accelerated this week, powering to major new breakout highs.  Speculators rushed to buy gold futures following surprising weak-dollar comments from the US Treasury Secretary, which hit the US dollar hard.  That boosted gold to critical technical levels that should really intensify the shift back to bullish psychology.  This mounting gold breakout confirms gold’s bull market is very much alive and well.

While this week’s surge put gold on many more traders’ radars, it has actually been picking up steam for 6 weeks now.  Gold’s latest major interim low of $1242 came a couple days before the Fed’s latest rate hike in mid-December.  The gold-futures speculators who dominate this metal’s short-term price action have always had a deep and irrational fear of Fed rate hikes.  Historically gold has thrived in rate-hike cycles!

Friday, January 26, 2018

What Could Push Crude Oil To $100? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

If anyone thought the latest oil market outlooks of the EIA and the IEA are upbeat, here’s an even more upbeat one from Energy Aspects: The consultancy expects crude demand this year to grow by 1.7 million bpd, and says Brent could touch above $100 a barrel in 2019.

According to Energy Aspects, the reason for the further jump in prices will be a drop in new production outside the U.S. shale patch. It’s a little hard to buy that, however, if one remembers that there is 1.8 million bpd in production capacity ready to be tapped again once OEPC and Russia taper their production cuts. That alone should take care of the demand growth that the consultancy predicts for this year. That is, unless it booms by 2 million bpd, which is the top of the range forecast by Energy Aspects. But even then, the U.S. and Russia alone could take care of it: The Russian state majors are itching to expand production in eastern Siberia.

Friday, January 26, 2018

Reversal Day in Precious Metals ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: SurfCity

Here are a few charts on the USD, Gold, Silver and GDX showing the reversals today. One day does not make a trend, however, and tomorrow is a new trading day.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Gold as a Hedge Against Hyperinflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Michael_J_Kosares

LETTER TO THE EDITOR

Dear Mr. Kosares,

I have read your articles with great interest and pleasure. I believe we are in a corner which is far from the mainstream.  In reference to buying gold as protection, I also read stories like “sell-cryptos-buy-gold,” but it is never told what will happen when there is indeed hyperinflation.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

A New Commodities Bull Market is Emerging / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Peter_Degraaf

We’ve all watched in amazement, while the equities markets around the world have risen to new highs.  On Wall Street hardly a week goes by without a new record.  There comes a time however when a sector becomes so overbought, that smart money begins to leave and search for a sector that has been overlooked.   That moment is now at hand, as can be seen in our first chart – courtesy sources listed.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Gold Gains a Powerful Friend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Yesterday, gold won an influential supporter in the White House. Who is he?

The Enemy of Gold’s Enemy Is Gold’s Friend

As the ancient proverb goes, my enemy’s enemy is my friend. Although it is usually employed in foreign policy, this concept also applies to finance. Given the negative correlation between the greenback and gold, the enemies of the U.S. dollar are generally gold’s friends.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Gold Jumps To Crucial Technical Level. Important Action Coming Up / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: John_Rubino

After what seems like a decade in the shadow of tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, gold and silver are rocking again. Which of course leaves everyone wondering if this is the beginning of the long-awaited epic run, or just a head fake preceding yet another grinding, protracted, soul-sucking decline.

The following chart has a couple of technical indicators that, if history still matters, shed some light on the challenges gold now faces. The first is the 50-day moving average, shown here as the thin line that tracks the more colorful price line. Note how when gold’s price spikes above the moving average, it is, in technical terms, “overbought.” In other words, it’s ahead of itself and has to fall to get back into sync with longer-term momentum.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Have You Seen Palladium’s Tradable Price Pattern? / Commodities / Palladium

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Are you prepared for the next big move in the metals markets?  Would you like to know what to expect in the immediate future that could save you thousands of dollars?  Then pay attention to this message as we share something most traders are overlooking right now.

Our research team at Technical Traders Ltd. have spent years developing our skills and financial modeling systems.  Right now, many traders are seeing the big upward price swings in the metals as a sign that prices will continue higher.  Well, in the long run, they are correct. But right now we believe the metals will roll over and trend lower for the next few weeks setting up for the next leg higher.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

US Dollar Will be Key to Gold Sesame / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold may be considered to be a bet against the U.S. dollar. The depreciation of the greenback supported the yellow metal in 2017. The price of gold managed to rise last year in rather unpleasant macroeconomic environment mainly thanks to the weakness of the U.S. dollar. Now, the key question is whether the bearish trend in the greenback will continue or we will see a trend reversal (or actually a continuation of a rebound which started in September)?

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

A few words on the Gold Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

As the long-term interest rate Amigo continues upward, the anti-USD ‘inflation trade’ continues onward and more and more gold bug writers emerge from the woodwork, it is time for a little antidote to the inevitable pitches and hype to come.

Everything is playing to script and with this little pullback to a higher low in the miners being resolved in the favored direction, the writer bugs are going to further their bullish message and try to get more reader bugs to follow their guidance. But absolutely nothing has changed.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Precious Metals Sector On a Major Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is up.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Unlike the U.S. Government, the Gold Market Never Closes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The U.S. government partially closed at midnight on Friday. But the UK deals with a much more serious crisis. Potentially also for gold.

So it happened again. The most powerful country in the world didn’t manage to renew another short-term government funding extension. It’s quite embarrassing, but we all should already get used to it. Since 1976, there have been almost 20 previous occurrences. But the world never collapsed. Why should it, given the character of the government? In the worst case it is a parasitic, mafia-style organization, while in the best scenario it is an inefficient bureaucratic Moloch with the dynamism of a sloth.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

3 Trends That Could Push Gold Higher in 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldSilver

There were some curious developments in the gold sector last year, most of which have flown under the radar of mainstream press reports. And the more they ignore what’s happening, the greater the surprise to the upside will be. It could indeed be very exciting for those of us that are overweight precious metals and have stayed the course.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Gold Price on the Move / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Since bottoming on December 11, 2017, at $1,242, gold has tacked on nearly $100 to its price. Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss what they see going on.

Clearly, one reason for the move in gold is the weakness in the U.S. dollar. The black line tracks the U.S. dollar index over the past two months while the gold line tracks the gold price. The dollar hit its recent high exactly when gold reached its low and the two have diverged since then.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Gold Market Consolidates Near Important Levels as Government Shuts Down / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

The gold market has been mired in a four-and-a-half year basing pattern. The rally that began late last year has taken prices up toward a major resistance zone. It’s make or break time!

Also, on the cusp of a potentially big move is the bond market.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Precious Metals Are Building Another Launching Pad / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals market. I believe that the GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I think we can see it in occur in early 2018.

Since I have been on vacation for the last two weeks, and will be traveling again this week to LA and NYC, I am going to keep this update a bit shorter than normal.

Monday, January 22, 2018

Two Factors for Gold That You Don’t Want to Miss / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Even though mining stocks closed last week below the Jan. 2 close and silver even declined below the Dec 31, 2017 close, gold moved higher. It’s not far from this year’s top either. So, is all well and are bullish gold price forecasts justified? Not necessarily. In today’s article, we show you two reasons why it’s a good idea to think twice before opening long positions in gold.

Some time ago we discussed the apex technique for the HUI Index and it worked perfectly, triggering a reversal right at the apex of the triangle. Today, we can see something very similar on the long-term GDX ETF chart and in light of the mentioned performance, it shouldn’t be ignored. Let’s take a look at the details (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).