Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, March 23, 2018

Gold Junior Mining Stocks GDXJ Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The junior gold miners’ stocks have spent much of the past year grinding sideways near lows, sapping confidence and breeding widespread bearishness.  The entire precious-metals sector has been left for dead, eclipsed by the dazzling taxphoria stock-market rally.  But traders need to keep their eyes on the fundamental ball so herd sentiment doesn’t mislead them.  The juniors’ recent Q4 results proved quite strong.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators.  They dispel all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.  That serves to re-anchor perceptions.

Friday, March 23, 2018

Global Trade War Fears See Precious Metals Gain And Stocks Fall / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– Market turmoil as trade war concerns deepen and Trump appoints war hawk Bolton
– Oil, gold and silver jump as ‘Russia China Hawk’ Bolton appointed
– Oil up 4%, gold up 2.2% and silver up 1.6% this week (see table)
– Stocks down sharply – Nikkei down 4.5%, S&P 4.3% & Nasdaq 5.5%
– Bolton scares jittery markets already shell-shocked by US’ tariffs against China
– Currency wars and trade wars tend to proceed actual wars
– Gold now outperforming stocks year to date (see table)

Friday, March 23, 2018

Debt Cycles and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

There is a range of factors which drive the Kondratiev waves. Following Schumpeter, we have focused so far on technological innovations. However, debt cycles are also a key. What are they?

The debt cycles are comprised of alternate leveraging and deleveraging of debt. The former occurs when people incur debt, increasing the debt-to-income ratio, or the debt-to-assets ratio. The latter is the opposite, so it means paying back the debts, which leads to the decrease in the amount of debt relative to wages or assets.

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Gold +1.8%, Silver +2.5% As Fed Increases Rates And Trade War Looms / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– Gold gained 1.8% and silver 2.5% to $1,333/oz and $16.60/oz yesterday
– Gold climbs as Fed increases interest rates by 0.25% – now 1.5% to 1.75% range
– Dovish Fed Chair Powell plans fewer than expected rate hikes in 2018
– Markets disappointed at lack of hawkish comments from new Fed Chair 
– Dollar LIBOR rises to highest level since November 2008 – $200 trillion worth of dollar-denominated financial products including mortgages based off LIBOR
– Trade wars look set to escalate and Trump expected to announce tariffs on Chinese imports today

Thursday, March 22, 2018

When Is Three Better for Gold Than Four? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

His hand didn’t shake. Powell hiked interest rates at the first FOMC meeting with him as the Chair. But the key factor for the gold market is what he signaled about the future path of the federal funds rate. The crucial word is “three”, not “four”.

Another Meeting, Another Hike
In line with expectations, the FOMC acknowledged the improved economic outlook and raised interest rates again. The key paragraph of the recent monetary policy statement is as follows:

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Additional Signs for Gold and Silver Amid Increasing FOMC Tension / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Are you feeling lucky? We all should. Whether you’re short or long gold (or you’re waiting on the sidelines), the additional day of signals is truly a blessing. That is if you know what to look at. The previous days and weeks provided us with multiple signs and yesterday’s price action served as the – likely final – sign before the big price move. Were you listening?

Let’s start today’s analysis with something that we didn’t feature so far this week – the short-term look at the gold stocks to gold ratio (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Larry Kudlow vs. Vladimir Putin on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jason_Hamlin

The gold price is up just 1% year to date in 2018 and has advanced 5.5% from the December 2017 low. There are some bullish signs from the chart, including a number of higher highs and higher lows following the late 2015 bottom at $1,045. But it certainly hasn’t been the powerful breakout the gold bugs have been hoping to see.

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Gold Short-term Pull Back in Progress / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts recent movements in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Gold Awaits Mr Powell's Introduction / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The FOMC members will gather today for a two-day meeting. It will be the most important event this week, since Powell will chair the meeting for the first time. Gold investors want to get to know him better as the uncertainty makes them a bit nervous. What should we expect from the new Fed Chair?

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

If Alan Greenspan is Right, Gold Prices can Soar to over $7000 Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Submissions

Peter Ginelli writes: Lately we have been seeing the term “stagflation” used in many headlines, by many respected analysts as well as the former and longest serving Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in recent months.

Here are just a few samples headlines:

“Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds” By Tae Kim, January 31, 2018, CNBC

“Stagflation, a threat to US dollar” By Andrew Masters, FX Street, February 14, 2018

“Knock, Knock - Who's There? Stagflation!” By John Peabody, Seeking Alpha, February 15, 2018

Monday, March 19, 2018

2018 Reversal Dates for Gold, Silver and Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Friday’s session in the precious metals sector was very exciting, but quite a few investors will want to agree to that, because the volatility wasn’t really big. But the dam is broken, and we saw several new cracks pointing to an incoming breakdown. It’s not the time to look away from all the signs – it’s time to take advantage of them.

In addition to showing you how we plan to proceed with the above, we’ll discuss something much bigger – the dates at which gold, silver and gold miners are likely to reverse during the course of the year based on the technique that proves to be extremely useful over and over again.

Friday, March 16, 2018

GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks remain deeply out of favor, trading at prices seen when gold was half or even a quarter of current levels.  So many traders assume this small contrarian sector must be really struggling fundamentally.  But nothing could be farther from the truth!  The major gold miners’ recently-released Q4’17 results prove they are thriving.  Their languishing stock prices are the result of irrational herd sentiment.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators.  They dispel all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.  They serve to re-anchor perceptions.

Friday, March 16, 2018

Crude Oil Price – Who Wants the Triangle? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Thursday crude oil wavered between small gains and losses, but finished the day only 23 cents above Wednesday closing price. Such small daily changes that we observe recently don’t look too encouraging for oil bulls or for the bears. However, to dispel boredom, we rummaged deeper in the charts and we found something that may interest both sides of the market’s battle. Curious?

Nevertheless, before we get to our little surprise, we would like to draw your attention to news from the IEA. Yesterday, the International Energy Agency said that global oil supply increased by 700,000 barrels per day from a year ago in the previous month. Additionally, we find out that supplies from producers outside of the OPEC will grow by 1.8 million bpd this year versus an increase of 760,000 bpd last year (mainly due to the rapidly growing production in the U.S.).

Friday, March 16, 2018

Is Barrick Gold Bottoming? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

We have seen downgrade after downgrade on Barrick Gold (ABX) for years. Many keep looking lower and lower, with some even considering that this stalwart in the miners’ complex may even go out of business due to its debt load.

However, back in 2015, it was one of the first miners to bottom. In fact, when we saw the potential bottoming of ABX in 2015, we actually opened our EWT Miners Portfolio in September of 2015, and the ABX was one of our first buys.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Are We Going to $1,120 or $1,510? No Matter What, Own Some Gold! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Who will win: bulls or bears? The LBMA published its annual forecast survey for precious metals prices in 2018. Gold prices range from $1,120 to $1,510. Where is the price of the yellow metal headed?

Summary of the Survey
The views of about 30 analysts in the 2018 forecasts are strongly divergent. The average price of gold is projected to be $1,318, so it is expected to be around the current level, but almost 5 percent higher than the last year’s average of $1,257.12. However, the average gold prices range from $1,215 to $1,381, while the trading range is even broader: $1,120-$1,510.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

BOOM: Wyoming Ends ALL TAXATION of Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Breakthrough Sound Money Bill Becomes Law Today with Wide Support

Cheyenne, Wyoming (March 14, 2018) – Sound money activists rejoiced as the Wyoming Legal Tender Act became law today. The bill restores constitutional, sound money in Wyoming.

Backed by the Sound Money Defense League, Campaign for Liberty, Money Metals Exchange, and in-state grassroots activists, HB 103 removes all forms of state taxation on gold and silver coins and bullion and reaffirms their status as money in Wyoming, in keeping with Article 1, Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Gold Cup At Cheltenham – Gold Is For Winners, Not For Gamblers / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– Gold Cup at Cheltenham – ‘The Olympics’ of the European horse racing calendar  

– Gold Cup trophy contains 10 troy ounces of gold – worth £9,000

– £620 million bets on horses, 230,000 pints of Guinness will be drunk, 9.2 tonnes of potato eaten 

– Since the 5th century BC, gold has been the ultimate prize to award champions and gold has been constantly and universally awarded as top prize 

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Upcoming Turnaround in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

More than two weeks ago, we described the very specific and very important pattern in the gold market, one of short- and medium-term importance. We wrote that the triangle apex pattern based on the intraday highs, pointed to a major reversal in the first half of March. The first half of March ends this week, so the key question is if the pattern was invalidated or are we about to see a major reversal in the price of gold.

In our view, the latter outcome is highly likely as it is confirmed also by other – independent – analogies. Let’s start with going back to the chart that we presented on February 26th (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Are Energy Sector Stocks Bottoming? / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts energy and finds that a tradable bottom is in place.

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Unbiased Gold Analysis of Draghi Dropping the Bias / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The ECB dropped its easing bias on Thursday. Monetary hawks are pleased. But doves are holding tight. And what does gold do?

Hawks Awaken in Frankfurt…
A major change at the European Central Bank! On Thursday, it removed its long-standing pledge to increase bond buys if needed. In January we could read that statement:

(…) if the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration.