Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Gold Awaits Mr Powell's Introduction / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The FOMC members will gather today for a two-day meeting. It will be the most important event this week, since Powell will chair the meeting for the first time. Gold investors want to get to know him better as the uncertainty makes them a bit nervous. What should we expect from the new Fed Chair?

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

If Alan Greenspan is Right, Gold Prices can Soar to over $7000 Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Submissions

Peter Ginelli writes: Lately we have been seeing the term “stagflation” used in many headlines, by many respected analysts as well as the former and longest serving Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in recent months.

Here are just a few samples headlines:

“Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds” By Tae Kim, January 31, 2018, CNBC

“Stagflation, a threat to US dollar” By Andrew Masters, FX Street, February 14, 2018

“Knock, Knock - Who's There? Stagflation!” By John Peabody, Seeking Alpha, February 15, 2018

Monday, March 19, 2018

2018 Reversal Dates for Gold, Silver and Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Friday’s session in the precious metals sector was very exciting, but quite a few investors will want to agree to that, because the volatility wasn’t really big. But the dam is broken, and we saw several new cracks pointing to an incoming breakdown. It’s not the time to look away from all the signs – it’s time to take advantage of them.

In addition to showing you how we plan to proceed with the above, we’ll discuss something much bigger – the dates at which gold, silver and gold miners are likely to reverse during the course of the year based on the technique that proves to be extremely useful over and over again.

Friday, March 16, 2018

GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks remain deeply out of favor, trading at prices seen when gold was half or even a quarter of current levels.  So many traders assume this small contrarian sector must be really struggling fundamentally.  But nothing could be farther from the truth!  The major gold miners’ recently-released Q4’17 results prove they are thriving.  Their languishing stock prices are the result of irrational herd sentiment.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators.  They dispel all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.  They serve to re-anchor perceptions.

Friday, March 16, 2018

Crude Oil Price – Who Wants the Triangle? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Thursday crude oil wavered between small gains and losses, but finished the day only 23 cents above Wednesday closing price. Such small daily changes that we observe recently don’t look too encouraging for oil bulls or for the bears. However, to dispel boredom, we rummaged deeper in the charts and we found something that may interest both sides of the market’s battle. Curious?

Nevertheless, before we get to our little surprise, we would like to draw your attention to news from the IEA. Yesterday, the International Energy Agency said that global oil supply increased by 700,000 barrels per day from a year ago in the previous month. Additionally, we find out that supplies from producers outside of the OPEC will grow by 1.8 million bpd this year versus an increase of 760,000 bpd last year (mainly due to the rapidly growing production in the U.S.).

Friday, March 16, 2018

Is Barrick Gold Bottoming? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

We have seen downgrade after downgrade on Barrick Gold (ABX) for years. Many keep looking lower and lower, with some even considering that this stalwart in the miners’ complex may even go out of business due to its debt load.

However, back in 2015, it was one of the first miners to bottom. In fact, when we saw the potential bottoming of ABX in 2015, we actually opened our EWT Miners Portfolio in September of 2015, and the ABX was one of our first buys.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Are We Going to $1,120 or $1,510? No Matter What, Own Some Gold! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Who will win: bulls or bears? The LBMA published its annual forecast survey for precious metals prices in 2018. Gold prices range from $1,120 to $1,510. Where is the price of the yellow metal headed?

Summary of the Survey
The views of about 30 analysts in the 2018 forecasts are strongly divergent. The average price of gold is projected to be $1,318, so it is expected to be around the current level, but almost 5 percent higher than the last year’s average of $1,257.12. However, the average gold prices range from $1,215 to $1,381, while the trading range is even broader: $1,120-$1,510.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

BOOM: Wyoming Ends ALL TAXATION of Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Breakthrough Sound Money Bill Becomes Law Today with Wide Support

Cheyenne, Wyoming (March 14, 2018) – Sound money activists rejoiced as the Wyoming Legal Tender Act became law today. The bill restores constitutional, sound money in Wyoming.

Backed by the Sound Money Defense League, Campaign for Liberty, Money Metals Exchange, and in-state grassroots activists, HB 103 removes all forms of state taxation on gold and silver coins and bullion and reaffirms their status as money in Wyoming, in keeping with Article 1, Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Gold Cup At Cheltenham – Gold Is For Winners, Not For Gamblers / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– Gold Cup at Cheltenham – ‘The Olympics’ of the European horse racing calendar  

– Gold Cup trophy contains 10 troy ounces of gold – worth £9,000

– £620 million bets on horses, 230,000 pints of Guinness will be drunk, 9.2 tonnes of potato eaten 

– Since the 5th century BC, gold has been the ultimate prize to award champions and gold has been constantly and universally awarded as top prize 

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Upcoming Turnaround in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

More than two weeks ago, we described the very specific and very important pattern in the gold market, one of short- and medium-term importance. We wrote that the triangle apex pattern based on the intraday highs, pointed to a major reversal in the first half of March. The first half of March ends this week, so the key question is if the pattern was invalidated or are we about to see a major reversal in the price of gold.

In our view, the latter outcome is highly likely as it is confirmed also by other – independent – analogies. Let’s start with going back to the chart that we presented on February 26th (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Are Energy Sector Stocks Bottoming? / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts energy and finds that a tradable bottom is in place.

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Unbiased Gold Analysis of Draghi Dropping the Bias / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The ECB dropped its easing bias on Thursday. Monetary hawks are pleased. But doves are holding tight. And what does gold do?

Hawks Awaken in Frankfurt…
A major change at the European Central Bank! On Thursday, it removed its long-standing pledge to increase bond buys if needed. In January we could read that statement:

(…) if the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration.

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Why Gold $1450 Should Happen / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

Gold has been trending higher since making the lows at 12.3.2015. From $1046.54 low, Gold rallied in 3 waves into the 7.6.2016 peak ($1375.15) and then pullback in 3 waves into the low at 12.15.2016 ($1122.81). Cycle from 12.15.2016 low has a 4 hour Bullish sequence as the yellow metal shows 5 swing sequence with a target of $1450.00. As far as Gold stays below below 7.6.2016 peak ($1375.15), there are various possible Elliott wave structures which can form.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Hungary’s Gold Repatriation Adds To Growing Protest Against US Dollar Hegemony / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– Hungarian National Bank (MNB) to repatriate 100,000 ounces gold from Bank of England
– Follows trend of Netherlands, Germany, Austria and Belgium each looking to bring gold back to home soil
– Hungary one of the smallest gold owners amongst central banks, with just 5 tonnes
– Central bank gold purchases continue to be major drivers of gold market
– Russian central bank gold reserves now exceed those of China
– Decisions to repatriate and increase gold reserves come as rifts between East and West widen

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Follow the Herd With GDX and GLD / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals mining market. I also believe that GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GDX, but want to also discuss the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which is an ETF that attempts to mirror the movements of gold. While I have gone on record in this webinar as to why I do not think GLD is a wise long-term investment hold, I will still use it to track the market movements.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Record Low Volatility in Precious Metals and What it Means / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The past 18 months have been difficult for precious metals investors. If you had known Donald Trump would be elected and the US Dollar would soon begin a nearly 15% decline, you would have expected Gold to blow past its 2016 high. You would have been shocked to see the gold miners and junior gold stocks trading lower. Gold has fared okay but the gold stocks and Silver have lagged. As US equities have continued to power higher, precious metals have struggled to perform while volatility in the space has dwindled. Precious metals volatility has reached extremely low levels and this is a sign that a major move, while not necessarily imminent is surely on the horizon.

Monday, March 12, 2018

Silver Does it Again! Severe Consequences / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In the free analysis that we posted last Monday, we warned that Friday’s session was likely to be volatile and tricky. This seems to have indeed been the case for silver. The white metal declined early in the day only to rally almost 40 cents from the initial low. In our previous alert, we discussed the possibility of silver topping at about $16.65 and this level was reached. Is silver about to take a dive just like it did in late November 2017?

In short, yes. That seems very likely, especially in light of the multiple long-term and short-term factors and we have received a strong bearish confirmation earlier this week. However, we need to supplement the above with a caveat – the decline may not start immediately, but in a few days. Why? Because of the proximity to the triangle apex reversal along with the lack of a visible rally on Friday suggest that we may still be a day or two away from the top.

Monday, March 12, 2018

Economic Pressures To Driving Gold and Silver Prices Higher Long-Term / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The analysis we have been conducting regarding the US and global markets shows one very interesting component that many people are overlooking – the pricing pressure in precious metals.  Our research team at Technical Traders Ltd. has attempted to understand and this pricing pressure in relation to the strong international demand exhibited by China, India, Russia, and others.

The below chart showing top gold reserves being accumulated by countries.

Saturday, March 10, 2018

Cheap Gold Stocks Basing / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The small contrarian gold-mining sector remains deeply out of favor, universally ignored.  Thus the gold stocks are largely drifting listlessly, totally devoid of excitement.  But that’s the best time to buy low, when few others care.  The gold stocks continue to form strong technical bases, paving the way for massive mean-reversion uplegs.  And they remain exceedingly cheap relative to gold prices, which drive their profits.

Being a gold-stock investor feels pretty miserable and hopeless these days.  The gold stocks have been consolidating low for 14.2 months now, stuck in a seemingly-endless sideways grind.  There are still gains to be won, but they are mostly within that low-trading-range context.  We haven’t seen one of the huge uplegs gold stocks are famous for since the first half of 2016.  So most traders have given up and moved on.

Friday, March 09, 2018

Are We in Late Cycle? Implications for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In the previous edition of the Market Overview, we explored the fascinating history of bull and bear cycles in both the U.S. dollar and gold. Since then, the idea of cyclicity doesn’t lead me to drop off, disrupting my sleep cycles. Let’s then dig into the topic. We start with the business cycles, as in the recent Gold News Monitor we wrote that “we are in the late stages of the economic cycle – as the cycle matures, volatility increases and investors start to buy more gold as a hedge.” Why do we believe so? And what are the implications for gold’s future?

As a short reminder, cycles exist throughout our lives. From the weather’s seasons to circadian rhythm. Business activity is no different here. The economy does not grow evenly, but experiences ups and downs. There are many theories of business cycles – our favorite is that formulated by the Austrian school. But now, let’s focus not on reasons, but on stages of business cycles. Knowledge is where we can improve investors’ returns.