Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
Why Gold $1450 Should Happen / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
Gold has been trending higher since making the lows at 12.3.2015. From $1046.54 low, Gold rallied in 3 waves into the 7.6.2016 peak ($1375.15) and then pullback in 3 waves into the low at 12.15.2016 ($1122.81). Cycle from 12.15.2016 low has a 4 hour Bullish sequence as the yellow metal shows 5 swing sequence with a target of $1450.00. As far as Gold stays below below 7.6.2016 peak ($1375.15), there are various possible Elliott wave structures which can form.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Hungary’s Gold Repatriation Adds To Growing Protest Against US Dollar Hegemony / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Hungarian National Bank (MNB) to repatriate 100,000 ounces gold from Bank of England
– Follows trend of Netherlands, Germany, Austria and Belgium each looking to bring gold back to home soil
– Hungary one of the smallest gold owners amongst central banks, with just 5 tonnes
– Central bank gold purchases continue to be major drivers of gold market
– Russian central bank gold reserves now exceed those of China
– Decisions to repatriate and increase gold reserves come as rifts between East and West widen
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Follow the Herd With GDX and GLD / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals mining market. I also believe that GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GDX, but want to also discuss the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which is an ETF that attempts to mirror the movements of gold. While I have gone on record in this webinar as to why I do not think GLD is a wise long-term investment hold, I will still use it to track the market movements.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Record Low Volatility in Precious Metals and What it Means / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The past 18 months have been difficult for precious metals investors. If you had known Donald Trump would be elected and the US Dollar would soon begin a nearly 15% decline, you would have expected Gold to blow past its 2016 high. You would have been shocked to see the gold miners and junior gold stocks trading lower. Gold has fared okay but the gold stocks and Silver have lagged. As US equities have continued to power higher, precious metals have struggled to perform while volatility in the space has dwindled. Precious metals volatility has reached extremely low levels and this is a sign that a major move, while not necessarily imminent is surely on the horizon.
Monday, March 12, 2018
Silver Does it Again! Severe Consequences / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In the free analysis that we posted last Monday, we warned that Friday’s session was likely to be volatile and tricky. This seems to have indeed been the case for silver. The white metal declined early in the day only to rally almost 40 cents from the initial low. In our previous alert, we discussed the possibility of silver topping at about $16.65 and this level was reached. Is silver about to take a dive just like it did in late November 2017?
In short, yes. That seems very likely, especially in light of the multiple long-term and short-term factors and we have received a strong bearish confirmation earlier this week. However, we need to supplement the above with a caveat – the decline may not start immediately, but in a few days. Why? Because of the proximity to the triangle apex reversal along with the lack of a visible rally on Friday suggest that we may still be a day or two away from the top.
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Monday, March 12, 2018
Economic Pressures To Driving Gold and Silver Prices Higher Long-Term / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The analysis we have been conducting regarding the US and global markets shows one very interesting component that many people are overlooking – the pricing pressure in precious metals. Our research team at Technical Traders Ltd. has attempted to understand and this pricing pressure in relation to the strong international demand exhibited by China, India, Russia, and others.
The below chart showing top gold reserves being accumulated by countries.
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Saturday, March 10, 2018
Cheap Gold Stocks Basing / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The small contrarian gold-mining sector remains deeply out of favor, universally ignored. Thus the gold stocks are largely drifting listlessly, totally devoid of excitement. But that’s the best time to buy low, when few others care. The gold stocks continue to form strong technical bases, paving the way for massive mean-reversion uplegs. And they remain exceedingly cheap relative to gold prices, which drive their profits.
Being a gold-stock investor feels pretty miserable and hopeless these days. The gold stocks have been consolidating low for 14.2 months now, stuck in a seemingly-endless sideways grind. There are still gains to be won, but they are mostly within that low-trading-range context. We haven’t seen one of the huge uplegs gold stocks are famous for since the first half of 2016. So most traders have given up and moved on.
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Friday, March 09, 2018
Are We in Late Cycle? Implications for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In the previous edition of the Market Overview, we explored the fascinating history of bull and bear cycles in both the U.S. dollar and gold. Since then, the idea of cyclicity doesn’t lead me to drop off, disrupting my sleep cycles. Let’s then dig into the topic. We start with the business cycles, as in the recent Gold News Monitor we wrote that “we are in the late stages of the economic cycle – as the cycle matures, volatility increases and investors start to buy more gold as a hedge.” Why do we believe so? And what are the implications for gold’s future?
As a short reminder, cycles exist throughout our lives. From the weather’s seasons to circadian rhythm. Business activity is no different here. The economy does not grow evenly, but experiences ups and downs. There are many theories of business cycles – our favorite is that formulated by the Austrian school. But now, let’s focus not on reasons, but on stages of business cycles. Knowledge is where we can improve investors’ returns.
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Friday, March 09, 2018
Make Gold, Not (Trade) War! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
“So it begins.” This is what King Theoden said right before the Battle of Helm’s Deep in the Lord of the Rings. Fortunately, the army of Uruk-hai doesn’t threaten the kingdom of men. But something else – also dreadful – endangers us. Trade wars.
Are Trade Wars Good?
President Trump shook the world last week, saying: “(…) trade wars are good, and easy to win.” Wrong! Each economist will say that. It’s true that economists often argue with each other. People even said “two economists, three opinions”. But economists do agree on many fundamental issues. One of them is the proposition that free trade is better than protection.
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Thursday, March 08, 2018
Gold – Early Stage Of A Secular Bear Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Science_Investing
Long Term Elliott Wave Analysis
Gold probably shows a complete pattern of supercycle degree into 2011. Its first spike appeared during the US civil war. We interpret that as cycle wave I. The subsequent period shows a correction that lasted for half of a century. It fits the character of a complex sideways correction. It ended roughly at the same time as the US economy started growing from the Great Depression. The subsequent sharp rise took once again half of a century. This was the steepest portion of the recorded gold price progress. Therefore, we are dealing here probably with a third wave. The subsequent fourth wave correction took 20 years and shows a zig-zag pattern with a B-wave triangle. This fits neatly into Elliott’s alternation guidelines regarding a complex second wave. Gold prices took off around the new millennium once again. They came to a stop in 2011. The fifth wave shows roughly equidistant progress to the first wave. We call it complete as long as we do not record a fading 3-wave drop from the top.
Thursday, March 08, 2018
Gold Stocks & Silver Oversold but Not Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The precious metals sector continues to correct and consolidate. Gold remains in a bullish consolidation. It recently reached resistance again and even though it has failed to breakout, it remains above long-term moving averages which are sloping upward. However, the gold stocks and Silver remain in correction mode. They are trading below the long-term moving averages and at the lower end of their ranges over the past 12 months. That certainly provides an opportunity but these markets may not truly perform until Gold is ready to breakout.
Bullish Silver commentaries (because of its CoT) have been making the rounds and I don’t disagree. In the chart below we plot the net speculative position as a percentage of open interest. It is at 7.4%, which is the lowest reading in nearly three years. Interestingly, the daily sentiment index for Silver is not at an extreme. Its at 40% bulls. Technically, Silver is wedged in between support and resistance. A break does not appear imminent.
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Wednesday, March 07, 2018
Do You Own Natural Gas? If Not See This! / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week we identified a prime chart pattern in natural gas that matched our technical analysis and cycle price prediction system. This type of setup is our favorite as it leads to quick juicy profits and the last setup we had like this in natural gas I think we pocketed 74% return in 12 days using the ETF UGAZ.
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Wednesday, March 07, 2018
Gold and Silver Advance Setup Shows New Highs Are Imminent / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’ve been warning about the future moves in the metals markets for a week to our members and readers. Our most recent work showed the metals needed to decline a bit before any new advancement leg could properly setup. Just recently, we profited from the Gold and Silver pulled back taking advantage of our downward predicting, which should setup a strong leg higher which is starting to unfold now. Yes, this could be the beginning of a new bullish leg that metals bugs have been waiting for.
Before we get into the details, we want to alert you that his new advancement leg should be the beginning of a new Wave 3 price advance. This type of price advancement should last many months and consist of multiple price rotations. All we are highlighting today is the eminent price advance that should take place before the end of March. Our more timely and detailed research, which is typically only shared with our subscribers.
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Wednesday, March 07, 2018
Gold Does Not Fear Interest Rate Hikes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Gold no longer fears or pays attention to Fed announcements regarding interest rates
– Renewed interest in gold due to inflation fears and concern Fed won’t do enough to control it
– Higher interest rates on horizon will make debt levels unsustainable
– New Fed Chair warns “the US is not on a sustainable fiscal path” and could lead to an “unsustainable” debt load
– Higher interest rates are good for gold as seen in the 1970s and 2000s
– Gold markets aware that central banks are running out of financial weapons to deal with crises
Wednesday, March 07, 2018
Silver Soared, So It’s Bullish, Right? Wrong / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It’s been only a couple of days since Thursday, when we closed our short positions and we have already seen a sizable rally in gold and silver. In fact, yesterday’s upswing was so significant that both precious metals already moved to the target areas that we featured on Monday, even though they were “scheduled” to move there at the end of the week. Is the top already in? Silver’s short-term outperformance definitely seems to suggest that it’s either in or at hand…
Let’s jump right into the charts, starting with gold (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Wednesday, March 07, 2018
Mr. President, If We Don’t Have Gold, We Don’t Have a Country / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Stewart_Dougherty
“Passivity is fatal to us. Our goal is to make the enemy passive. … Communism is not
love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy.” Mao Tse-tung,
proclaiming the founding of the People’s Republic of China, 1949
Circumstantial evidence is mounting high that there is something seriously wrong with the amount of gold reportedly owned by the United States government, or more precisely, the American people.
After nearly two generations of being brainwashed into believing that gold is a meaningless relic, western citizens have lost all concept of gold’s crucial monetary importance. If it turns out that the United States does not, in fact, possess and own the gold it claims to, the monetary, fiscal, economic, and humanitarian fallout will be unprecedented in its destructiveness. Unfortunately, the people have no idea what is at stake.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2018
History Says You Have 27 Days to Buy Silver Before It Rises / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldSilver
Jeff Clark: Mike Maloney revealed that he recently made a large purchase of silver because of how undervalued it is. And he bought silver instead of
gold because of how high the gold/silver ratio is.
If you want to mimic Mike’s purchase of silver while it’s still undervalued, history says you only have 27 days to do so.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2018
8 Reasons Your Investment Portfolio Needs Crisis Insurance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: HAA
By Olivier Garret : We’ve recently witnessed what I consider to be a turning point for the stock market.Just when many predicted another growth year for the markets, on Monday, February 5, the Dow plunged by 1,600 points—its greatest point drop in history.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2018
Will the Stars Shine on Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Major blow to the EU! The populist Five Star Movement won about one-third of the votes in the Italian general elections. It’s another negative shock for the European establishment. Will these stars shine on gold?
Five Stars Movement Triumphs
We live in strange times. To be a hairstylist, you need a license. But you can become a politician being just a comedian and telling jokes. We refer here to Beppe Grillo who co-founded the Five Star Movement a decade ago. Although the party was initially perceived as a harmless prank, it quickly became a serious threat for mainstream politicians in Italy. In 2013, it reached 25.55 percent of the vote, introducing 109 out of the 630 deputies in the Parliament. It would obtain even more members, but it refused to form a coalition. Fast forward to 2018 – the Five Star Movement won about one third of the votes. It means that it will likely be the largest single party – and the pillar of the next legislature.
Monday, March 05, 2018
Gold’s Chance to Finally Shine and its Upside Target for Friday / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Taking profits on our short positions and closing them on Thursday turned out to be a good idea. Gold, silver and – on an intraday basis – mining stocks moved higher on Friday, while the USD Index declined. But, is the rally over after just one day? Not likely – gold’s and miners’ turning points are likely to result in something more than just a daily rally. So, how high is gold likely to rally this time? That’s what we discuss in the following part of today’s alert.
But first, let’s take a look at what happened in the USD Index (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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