Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, March 09, 2018
Make Gold, Not (Trade) War! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
“So it begins.” This is what King Theoden said right before the Battle of Helm’s Deep in the Lord of the Rings. Fortunately, the army of Uruk-hai doesn’t threaten the kingdom of men. But something else – also dreadful – endangers us. Trade wars.
Are Trade Wars Good?
President Trump shook the world last week, saying: “(…) trade wars are good, and easy to win.” Wrong! Each economist will say that. It’s true that economists often argue with each other. People even said “two economists, three opinions”. But economists do agree on many fundamental issues. One of them is the proposition that free trade is better than protection.
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Thursday, March 08, 2018
Gold – Early Stage Of A Secular Bear Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Science_Investing
Long Term Elliott Wave Analysis
Gold probably shows a complete pattern of supercycle degree into 2011. Its first spike appeared during the US civil war. We interpret that as cycle wave I. The subsequent period shows a correction that lasted for half of a century. It fits the character of a complex sideways correction. It ended roughly at the same time as the US economy started growing from the Great Depression. The subsequent sharp rise took once again half of a century. This was the steepest portion of the recorded gold price progress. Therefore, we are dealing here probably with a third wave. The subsequent fourth wave correction took 20 years and shows a zig-zag pattern with a B-wave triangle. This fits neatly into Elliott’s alternation guidelines regarding a complex second wave. Gold prices took off around the new millennium once again. They came to a stop in 2011. The fifth wave shows roughly equidistant progress to the first wave. We call it complete as long as we do not record a fading 3-wave drop from the top.
Thursday, March 08, 2018
Gold Stocks & Silver Oversold but Not Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The precious metals sector continues to correct and consolidate. Gold remains in a bullish consolidation. It recently reached resistance again and even though it has failed to breakout, it remains above long-term moving averages which are sloping upward. However, the gold stocks and Silver remain in correction mode. They are trading below the long-term moving averages and at the lower end of their ranges over the past 12 months. That certainly provides an opportunity but these markets may not truly perform until Gold is ready to breakout.
Bullish Silver commentaries (because of its CoT) have been making the rounds and I don’t disagree. In the chart below we plot the net speculative position as a percentage of open interest. It is at 7.4%, which is the lowest reading in nearly three years. Interestingly, the daily sentiment index for Silver is not at an extreme. Its at 40% bulls. Technically, Silver is wedged in between support and resistance. A break does not appear imminent.
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Wednesday, March 07, 2018
Do You Own Natural Gas? If Not See This! / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week we identified a prime chart pattern in natural gas that matched our technical analysis and cycle price prediction system. This type of setup is our favorite as it leads to quick juicy profits and the last setup we had like this in natural gas I think we pocketed 74% return in 12 days using the ETF UGAZ.
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Wednesday, March 07, 2018
Gold and Silver Advance Setup Shows New Highs Are Imminent / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’ve been warning about the future moves in the metals markets for a week to our members and readers. Our most recent work showed the metals needed to decline a bit before any new advancement leg could properly setup. Just recently, we profited from the Gold and Silver pulled back taking advantage of our downward predicting, which should setup a strong leg higher which is starting to unfold now. Yes, this could be the beginning of a new bullish leg that metals bugs have been waiting for.
Before we get into the details, we want to alert you that his new advancement leg should be the beginning of a new Wave 3 price advance. This type of price advancement should last many months and consist of multiple price rotations. All we are highlighting today is the eminent price advance that should take place before the end of March. Our more timely and detailed research, which is typically only shared with our subscribers.
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Wednesday, March 07, 2018
Gold Does Not Fear Interest Rate Hikes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Gold no longer fears or pays attention to Fed announcements regarding interest rates
– Renewed interest in gold due to inflation fears and concern Fed won’t do enough to control it
– Higher interest rates on horizon will make debt levels unsustainable
– New Fed Chair warns “the US is not on a sustainable fiscal path” and could lead to an “unsustainable” debt load
– Higher interest rates are good for gold as seen in the 1970s and 2000s
– Gold markets aware that central banks are running out of financial weapons to deal with crises
Wednesday, March 07, 2018
Silver Soared, So It’s Bullish, Right? Wrong / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It’s been only a couple of days since Thursday, when we closed our short positions and we have already seen a sizable rally in gold and silver. In fact, yesterday’s upswing was so significant that both precious metals already moved to the target areas that we featured on Monday, even though they were “scheduled” to move there at the end of the week. Is the top already in? Silver’s short-term outperformance definitely seems to suggest that it’s either in or at hand…
Let’s jump right into the charts, starting with gold (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Wednesday, March 07, 2018
Mr. President, If We Don’t Have Gold, We Don’t Have a Country / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Stewart_Dougherty
“Passivity is fatal to us. Our goal is to make the enemy passive. … Communism is not
love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy.” Mao Tse-tung,
proclaiming the founding of the People’s Republic of China, 1949
Circumstantial evidence is mounting high that there is something seriously wrong with the amount of gold reportedly owned by the United States government, or more precisely, the American people.
After nearly two generations of being brainwashed into believing that gold is a meaningless relic, western citizens have lost all concept of gold’s crucial monetary importance. If it turns out that the United States does not, in fact, possess and own the gold it claims to, the monetary, fiscal, economic, and humanitarian fallout will be unprecedented in its destructiveness. Unfortunately, the people have no idea what is at stake.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2018
History Says You Have 27 Days to Buy Silver Before It Rises / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldSilver
Jeff Clark: Mike Maloney revealed that he recently made a large purchase of silver because of how undervalued it is. And he bought silver instead of
gold because of how high the gold/silver ratio is.
If you want to mimic Mike’s purchase of silver while it’s still undervalued, history says you only have 27 days to do so.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2018
8 Reasons Your Investment Portfolio Needs Crisis Insurance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: HAA
By Olivier Garret : We’ve recently witnessed what I consider to be a turning point for the stock market.Just when many predicted another growth year for the markets, on Monday, February 5, the Dow plunged by 1,600 points—its greatest point drop in history.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2018
Will the Stars Shine on Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Major blow to the EU! The populist Five Star Movement won about one-third of the votes in the Italian general elections. It’s another negative shock for the European establishment. Will these stars shine on gold?
Five Stars Movement Triumphs
We live in strange times. To be a hairstylist, you need a license. But you can become a politician being just a comedian and telling jokes. We refer here to Beppe Grillo who co-founded the Five Star Movement a decade ago. Although the party was initially perceived as a harmless prank, it quickly became a serious threat for mainstream politicians in Italy. In 2013, it reached 25.55 percent of the vote, introducing 109 out of the 630 deputies in the Parliament. It would obtain even more members, but it refused to form a coalition. Fast forward to 2018 – the Five Star Movement won about one third of the votes. It means that it will likely be the largest single party – and the pillar of the next legislature.
Monday, March 05, 2018
Gold’s Chance to Finally Shine and its Upside Target for Friday / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Taking profits on our short positions and closing them on Thursday turned out to be a good idea. Gold, silver and – on an intraday basis – mining stocks moved higher on Friday, while the USD Index declined. But, is the rally over after just one day? Not likely – gold’s and miners’ turning points are likely to result in something more than just a daily rally. So, how high is gold likely to rally this time? That’s what we discuss in the following part of today’s alert.
But first, let’s take a look at what happened in the USD Index (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, March 05, 2018
The Biggest Energy Breakthrough Since Fracking / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: OilPrice_Com
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Monday, March 05, 2018
SILVER Large Specualtors Net Short Position 15 Year Anniversary / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and explains why he is bullish on the metal.
The purpose of this update is to commemorate the Large Specs having their first net short position in silver since the site started 15 years ago, and also to consider how we can turn this to our advantage. Before we look at silver's latest extraordinary COT chart and consider its implications, we will first quickly review the silver charts.
We will start with an 8-year chart that shows the big picture and includes the entire bear market from the April–May 2011 peak. On this chart we see that silver is in the very late stage of a giant downsloping Head-and-Shoulders bottom and currently grinding sideways marking out a protracted Right Shoulder low. Because of its downslope, many observers think that silver's bear market is ongoing and fail to spot that this is a giant base pattern, but the parallel Head-and-Shoulders bottom in gold is much more obvious because it is flat-topped, and it is this that helps give the game away.
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Saturday, March 03, 2018
Crude Oil and Water: How Climate Change is Threatening our Two Most Precious Commodities / Commodities / Climate Change
By: Richard_Mills
While there is disagreement over its causes – man-made versus natural – the reality of climate change is an incontrovertible fact. The planet is warming, affecting our weather, our oceans, our growing seasons, even our food, as crops fail, causing shortages and price hikes. Storms are becoming more frequent, and more intense, and droughts are lasting longer.
Forest fires are an annual occurrence in Australia, California and British Columbia, and in the United States and the Caribbean, people live in fear of the next hurricane that could literally turn their lives upside down.
Most of us have watched videos of calving glaciers as huge chunks of ice break off millions-year-old ice sheets and tumble into the sea. They have become emblematic of the highly-politicized cause of climate change, or dare we say, “global warming.” Starting with Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth, the global warming alarmists have been on a decades-long crusade against the fossil fuel industry, but few have stopped to think about what are the implications of climate change from an investment point of view.
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Saturday, March 03, 2018
Currencies Will Be ‘Flushed Down the Toilet’ Triggering a ‘Mad Rush into Gold’ / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, and author of the book The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market.
Michael is a well-known money manager and a fantastic market commentator, and over the past few years has been a wonderful guest and one of our favorite interviews here on the Money Metals Podcast and we always enjoy getting his Austrian economist viewpoint.
Michael, welcome back and thanks for joining us again.
Michael Pento: What a great introduction. Thanks for having me back on, Mike.
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Friday, March 02, 2018
Fed Interest Hikes, US Dollar, and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The US dollar has fallen rather sharply over the past year or so, despite ongoing Fed rate hikes. This persistent dollar weakness has really boosted gold. There’s a fascinating interplay between these two currencies and futures speculators’ expectations for Fed rate hikes. These traders hang on every word from top Fed officials, which greatly influences their trading. So these relationships are important to understand.
In late December 2016, the venerable US Dollar Index surged to an incredible 14.0-year secular high. That was just a couple weeks after the Federal Reserve’s second interest-rate increase of this hiking cycle. Top Fed officials were forecasting three more rate hikes in 2017, fueling euphoric sentiment in this top reserve currency. Everyone believed higher prevailing interest rates would prove very bullish for the dollar.
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Friday, March 02, 2018
What Does February Stock Market Crash Mean for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
One month after the February stock market rout is an excellent time to step back and review all the facts – and their implications for the gold market. Here’s exactly what happened – and what it implies for your capital allocation.
- After more than a year of continuously advancing, the S&P 500 fell nearly 10 percent in five days.
- The sell-off was allegedly triggered by the surprisingly strong January jobs report, showing the acceleration in wage growth. That released fears of higher inflation, which could prompt the Fed to tighten its stance further. As President Trump rightly pointed out (on Twitter, of course):
in the “old days,” when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down.
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Friday, March 02, 2018
Trump Risks Trade and Currency Wars – Protectionism and Economic War Loom / Commodities / Protectionism
By: GoldCore
– Global stocks slump as Trump risks trade wars
– Gold prices little changed despite dollar weakness after tariff news
– Trump announced plans to impose heavy tariffs on imported metals
– China likely to retaliate with heavy tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports
– Geo-political tensions with EU and of course China and Russia to escalate
– Trade, currency wars and competitive currency devaluations tend to lead to actual war
– Russia unveils next generation of “invincible nuclear weapons”
– Safe haven gold bullion a hedge against protectionism and economic war
Friday, March 02, 2018
Crude Oil Market Fears: War, Default And Nuclear Weapons / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The U.S. is one of the few areas of the world in which there is an energy investment boom underway, a development that could smooth out the uncertainties of geopolitical events around the world. At the same time, outside of the U.S., there is a deterioration of stability in many oil-producing regions, aggravating risks for both oil companies and the oil market, according to a new report.
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