Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Crude Oil Prices and the 2019 Hurricane Season / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a near-normal 2019 hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

But, the season got off to an early start with the short-lived sub-tropical storm Andrea on May 20.

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Can Gold Recover from Friday’s Strong Payrolls Hit? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

And here we go again. Gold slipped below $1,400 per ounce. This is where it fell after stronger-than-expected June Employment Report. How does that key piece of economic data play into the market’s rate cuts expectations? And how does it all impact gold?

June Payrolls Surpass Expectations

The U.S. created 224,000 jobs in June, following a disappointing increase of 72,000 in May (after a downward revision). The number surprised positively, as the economists polled by the MarketWatch forecasted 170,000 created jobs. The gains in hiring last month were widespread, but with a leading role of education and health services (+61,000) and professional and business services (+51,000). Only retail trade and mining cut jobs.

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

The Phony Wealth Effect and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss what real wealth is and if financial assets should be considered real wealth. Our contention is that gold is real wealth. Gold is its own final settlement and no one else's liability. What this means is simply that gold stands for itself, it does not depend upon the faith and good credit of any other person or thing...it is universally accepted as final settlement. It has been so for thousands of years.

And in these days of radical central bank policies, gold has no central bank to control its issuance or its value. Its value is determined by those who wish to exchange it for other valuable things. Its issuance is established by the fact that it is rare and difficult to extract.

Tuesday, July 09, 2019

Gold Price June Upturn Separates 2019 from the Pack / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

The summer months historically present a buying opportunity in precious metals as illustrated in the charts shown below. In the past, there has been a clear change of direction in sentiment annually from the 185-195 day mark – midway in the year. So far this summer, though, gold has broken with tradition by turning in a strong June, as shown in the third chart.

“Gold trading usually gives pundits, dealers, and investors a break at some point over the summer,” observes Adrian Ash at BullionVault. “But like 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2016…this year is proving no time to take your eye off the market. And if 2019 is going to see an old skool summer lull in gold trading, it won’t feel much like a discount up at these prices.” With a range of economic and geopolitical issues preying on investor psychology – particularly at the funds and institutions that have fueled the upside this year – the summer of 2019 might go down as one of those years when we bypass the annual slowdown. Last year, gold hit a low of $1178 in mid-August. By December 31st, it was trading at the $1280 mark.

Monday, July 08, 2019

Gold - Silver Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Gold-Silver ratio is trading at an historic extreme of 90.31, at a level not seen for over 25 years. In comparison the historic average is 50 which on the current Gold price of $1330 would have the Silver price trading at $26.60. Which just goes to show how much of a coiled spring Silver tends to be as it eventually tends to swing sharply in the other direction at mania peaks.

Sunday, July 07, 2019

Record-Long Economic Expansion and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Ladies and Gentlemen, it has finally happened! The current expansion already goes on for 121 months, becoming the longest economic boom in the US history. Should we celebrate now? Or should we worry, as all good things come to an end, and whatever lasts long, ends up even faster? We invite you to read our today’s article, which assesses the vitality of the current expansion, and find out whether the U.S. economy in a good shape or on the edge of collapse, and what all of this implies for the gold market.

Ladies and Gentlemen, it has finally happened! The current expansion already goes on for 121 months, which means that the previous record of 120 months is now history. Thus, it has become the longest economic boom in the U.S. history. Should we celebrate now? Or should we worry, as all good things come to an end, and whatever lasts long, ends up even faster? Is the U.S. economy in a good shape or on the edge of collapse? Let’s make an assessment!

Saturday, July 06, 2019

Gold’s Summer Doldrums? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s incredible strength this summer is very unusual, as early summers are the weakest times of the year seasonally for gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks.  With traders’ attention diverted to vacations and summer fun, interest in and demand for precious metals normally wane.  So this entire sector tends to suffer a seasonal lull, along with the general markets.  This June’s bull-market breakout is a momentous anomaly.

This doldrums term is very apt for gold’s usual summer predicament.  It describes a zone in the world’s oceans surrounding the equator.  There hot air is constantly rising, creating long-lived low-pressure areas.  They are often calm, with little or no prevailing winds.  History is full of accounts of sailing ships getting trapped in this zone for days or weeks, unable to make headway.  The doldrums were murder on ships’ morale.

Crews had no idea when the winds would pick up again, while they continued burning through their limited stores of food and drink.  Without moving air, the stifling heat and humidity were suffocating on these ships long before air conditioning.  Misery and boredom were extreme, leading to fights breaking out and occasional mutinies.  Being trapped in the doldrums was viewed with dread, it was a very trying experience.

Friday, July 05, 2019

Gold and Silver Uber-Bull Run Is Upon Us / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares NYSE) is the world's largest gold-centric Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). On Friday June 21, 2019 – one day after The Gold and Silver Volcano is Ready to Erupt was posted on this site – a record single day's inflow (gold buying) of over $1.5 billion took place.

This stampede, led by hedge funds and "algos" (automated computer buy/sell programs based upon volume flows and trigger price points) involved dollar amounts substantially eclipsing the record set during the 2008 global panic.

The price of gold rose to a 6-year high, left a series of gaps on the way up, and smashed through all sorts of technical "resistance" points on traders' charts around the globe.

Friday, July 05, 2019

Precious 'Mettle'- Gold Bullish Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the mettle necessary to trade precious metals at this time. "Mettle"—the ability to cope with difficulties or to face a demanding situation in a spirited and resilient way.

Given the performance of my beloved Gold and Gold Miners in the past month, could there have ever been a more fitting word describing our sector than in the word "mettle"? Insert the words "the constant and unrelenting interference by the Fed/Treasury-sanctioned bullion banks" for the word "difficulties"; insert the words "egregiously overbought condition" for the words "demanding situation" and the definition might be appropriately restated as "the ability to cope with the constant and unrelenting interference by the Fed/Treasury-sanctioned bullion banks or to face a(n) egregiously overbought condition in a spirited and resilient way."

Friday, July 05, 2019

Gold Price Trend Forecast, Long and Short Plays for Traders / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The last few weeks for gold trader has been really exciting. Let face it, metals are starting to outperform us Equities late in a US stock bull market and we all know what that means. If you don’t know what I mean check out these charts!

Recently I posted an exclusive gold analysis article on Gold-Eagle.com talking about the next big moves and timing for the price of gold. Things are about to get much more exciting and life changing for those involved on the right side of the move.

In fact, in the next week, I will be sharing the absolute best way to take advantage of the gold move and it is most likely the exact opposite of what you are doing/plan to do. Recently Eric Sprott (Canadian billionaire, precious metals specialist) talked about my analysis and he touched on this gold trading strategy as well.

Friday, July 05, 2019

Palladium Sets Up Another Double Top Pattern / Commodities / Palladium

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Is this Double-Top setup in Palladium another warning of a potential downside price move?  Back in April 2018, we issued a Double-Top pattern warning in Palladium which preceded a downside price move of nearly 28%.  We believe this new Double-Top pattern may prompt a downside price move of nearly 20% – targeting the $1240 level.

April 18, 2018:PALLADIUM RALLY DRIVING OTHER METALS TO MOVE?

Friday, July 05, 2019

US Monetary Growth Slows. Will Gold Price Accelerate Now? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The growth of the US money supply has slowed down! We invite you to read our today’s article about the sluggish American monetary inflation, and find out whether it signal the upcoming recession and good times for gold.

We have long been warning our Readers about doomsayers who spread excessively pessimistic viewpoint and scare investors with the monster of recession. Our thorough analysis suggests – the gold bulls could not like this conclusion – that we have a Goldilocks economy and the current expansion still has room to run.        

However, we do not downplay the risk of recession. We are not like many market pundits who express naive optimism that this time is different (we are neither the eternal doomsayers who see writings on the wall everywhere). Instead, we are constantly monitoring economy closely to provide you with the in-depth and data-based analysis.

Thursday, July 04, 2019

Stocks vs. Gold: Some Little-Known Facts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The gold and silver markets rarely get much love on Wall Street and from the average investors who only listen attentively to what CNBC and stock brokers have to say.

Nearly a decade of underperformance in the metals markets certainly isn’t helping draw attention. Recently, the gold market started to move, and the rising price has thus far gone mostly unnoticed.

Everyone is watching the equity markets continue the surge higher that began the day after Christmas.

Thursday, July 04, 2019

The Three Metallic Amigos Gold, Silver and Copper / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

When last we left the 3 Metallic Amigos… I can’t remember the detailed individual statuses and am too busy to go read the post. They were something like borderline hysterical gold, attractive silver and bouncing (but not yet bullish) copper. So here’s today’s update on these Amigos.

Gold is testing the high today after not even pulling a 38% Fib retrace. A real bull market launch may not pull back to a nice neat support/retrace level (38%, 50%) but that does qualify as a test of the big picture breakout at 1378, which has for years now been our (NFTRH) Bull/Bear line of demarcation. As long as that holds up, gold is in a bull market. Can it be making a very short-term double top? Ah, sure. But it can also be ready to rip higher. Point is, gold is not yet beyond a pullback potential to the 1350-1375 area but man, it’s bullish.

Thursday, July 04, 2019

Crude Oil Price Pummeled, Where Is It Going Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

On Tuesday, July 2, 2019, the price of Crude Oil fell over -4.5% on continued expectations of global economic weakness and supply gluts.  We found this interview rather interesting because it attempts to suggest a narrative that ignores Iranian issues while pushing the supply side fundamental for the current price decline (Source: CNBC).

Back on May 21, 2019, we shared a post that is still very relevant today.  The same price pattern is still in place and the same type of price action is working through the completion of an extended Pennant/Flag formation. We suggest all our follower read this May 21 post to catch up to current market levels.

Thursday, July 04, 2019

Gold and Silver Precious Metals Breaking Out / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

I would like to start out this Report by looking at a long term monthly chart for the GDX. The multi year bear market actually began in September of 2011 at the head portion of the 3 1/2 year H&S top. The H&S top actually began to form in September of 2009 and ended in February of 2013 when the price action broke below the neckline. From that point the GDX declined for the next three years in its bear market so from a technical perspective the GDX ended its bear market in January of 2016 which marked its all time low.

The rally out of the 2016 low lasted seven months and ended in September of the same year. After a strong impulse move like that one looks for the price action to consolidate its gains before moving higher. There was no way to know at the time what trading range would develop and how long it will take to complete. Now in hindsight we can see the GDX built out the 2016 bullish falling wedge, that we’ve been following for well over a year, which took two years to complete from the August 2016 high to the September 2018 low. It wasn’t until the breakout above the top rail of the 2016 bullish falling wedge and the completion of the backtest two months ago in May that we had significant confirmation that the bear market that began in September of 2011 was officially over.

Thursday, July 04, 2019

Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts the reasons why the recent gold breakout is genuine. It has been a truly glorious month for gold, and the purpose of this update is to point out firstly that the gold breakout of the past week was genuine and secondly that any short-term reaction back as far as $1,380 or even $1,370 will not negate the breakout—instead it should be seized upon as an opportunity to build positions across the sector, especially in trampled down undervalued silver stocks. Silver broke higher last week on its strongest upside volume since its frothy top in 2011 and on its second highest upside volume ever.

On the six-month gold chart we can see the impressive breakout run-up of recent days, which has taken gold to a flag target that it has reached in an extremely overbought state. This means it is entitled to take a rest here, and that is what it is doing.

Thursday, July 04, 2019

Silver Priced Poised for a Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses why he believes silver is amazingly cheap and a sure sign that a major precious metals sector bull market is starting.

We have already been over the reasons why a major precious metals (PM) sector bull market is starting, and remarked on how undervalued silver is compared to gold, and how this is typical at the start of a major sector bull market. But it is worth "thumping the table" over this, because silver and silver investments may well be the best place of all to put your money at this time.

Many silver investors are manic-depressive and fanatical, which is a reality that we can turn to our advantage, for if we can figure when they are just starting to emerge from the depths of despair, it is the time to move into the sector in a big way.

They are just starting to emerge from the depths of despair right now as it happens, which is shown graphically by the silver-to-gold ratio, the basis of which is that when investors in the sector are at their most risk-averse, they tend to favor gold over silver. This is hardly surprising, as gold conjures up images of solidity and security to a much greater extent than silver, which is also known as "poor man's gold."

Thursday, July 04, 2019

Crude Oil’s Reversal Sparks Our New Trading Decision / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Yesterday’s oil session was indeed heavy on action. The initial upswing gave way to a reversal lower, leaving black gold to close almost unchanged. Well, it finished a bit lower than it opened the day actually. Does this signify something important? That important that it would make us act? You bet – let’s dive in to the juicy details.

Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (chart courtesy of www.stooq.com ).

Thursday, July 04, 2019

Gold Plunges Below $1,400 On the News of Trade War Truce / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Donald and Xi have confirmed their true and everlasting friendship now. Trade wars are over, it’s all rainbows and unicorns - and investors do not need safe havens anymore. Right? The celebratory mood feels great but let’s find out what the trade truce really means for the gold market.

Ufff, They Announce Trade Truce

The G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, is behind us. Did I write “G20”? It should be “G2”, as the world’s focus was on the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.