Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Silver Investing Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Silver price reluctantly followed the Gold higher early in the year to a late February peak of $16.20, following which it abruptly gave up all of its hard won gains for the year by making a new low early March at $15, breaking the preceding low of $15.45 and thus entering into a downtrend of a series of lower highs and lows where it remained until the Gold price came alive at the end of May 2019. Following which the Silver price busted out of its 2019 downtrend by hitting a recent high of $15.15 before succumbing to selling to bring the price down to its last close of $14.74 DOWN 5% for the year which compares against the Gold price up 4% for the year which illustrates the persistent under performance of the Silver price against the Gold price.

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Gold Surprise! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger describes why he has swung from long to short on the precious metals and miners. Before we go any further, let it be known that in the days leading up to this missive, i have gone from "net long" to "net short" on gold, silver and the miners. Those receiving my email blasts and those following me on Twitter (@Miningjunkie) have been put on notice that this advance, while impressive in its blunt-force trauma, lacks the perfection of the Q4/2015 advance, which arrived from multiyear polar extremes in sentiment and COT structure setups.

All last week I was emailing and tweeting how frail this advance looked and why I was a seller. With Friday's COT, you have the reason:

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

After an incredible rally in Natural Gas that our researchers called perfectly in November 2018, another opportunity for an upside price move appears to be setting up for later this year. We believe the current price lows, near $2.30, are setting up for a bounce and then will drop and form a basing pattern near $2.00 before rocketing higher.  It is this last move to the downside which will set up the incredibly deep price base and oversold conditions for the upside price move in late August/September 2019.

We’re issuing this research post to alert all of our followers to our research and to allow for proper price rotation for this base to set up and conclude before jumping into any false triggers that may occur on the Daily or Weekly charts.

Start by taking a look at this Monthly NG chart showing how extended high price peaks are usually followed by extended price declines.  It is very unlikely that any upside price move will begin before late August or early September 2019. 

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

U.S. Dollar Stall is Good for Commodities / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

After months of advancing, the U.S. dollar's climb is showing signs of weakness.

Over the last five years, the greenback has risen almost 20 percent, whereas other world currencies have not been so lucky.

Monday, June 10, 2019

Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Gold Price began 2019 with a continuation of it's strong December 2018 rally towards resistance at $1300 that was soon overcome propelling the Gold price higher to next resistance at $1350 by Mid February. Since when entered into a shallow downtrend all the way to the recent low of $1269. Which is particularly disappointing given that many Gold bugs had pinned hopes on safe haven demand in the aftermath of Trump trade war chaos tumbling stock markets since the start of May, not to mention a aircraft carrier group steaming towards the Persian Gulf, none of which is being reflected in the Gold price to date.

Monday, June 10, 2019

The Gold Price Golden Neckline… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

It’s hard to believe that the massive H&S consolidation pattern we’ve been following for several years began to develop all the way back in 2013 during the initial crash off the 2011 high. This weekly line chart shows the price action closing this week right on the neckline at 1350. Note how many touches the neckline has experienced from below with each one backing off. Now the question remains, how may bears are left to defend the 2013 neckline? There is a good chance that if they are exhausted that the price action could just spike right through the neckline this time around completing the massive H&S base which would be long term bullish. Big patterns lead to big moves.

Sunday, June 09, 2019

Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The most reliable seasonal patterns are for a strong January and February, weak April, May and July followed by a strong August and September which tends to be the best month of the year. Then the trend is expected to continue into the end of the year with variable reliability for October and November.

Sunday, June 09, 2019

Fed Rate Cuts Soon; Bitcoin Enthusiasts Join Wall Street in Bashing Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up David Morgan of The Morgan Report joins me to discuss the ticking time bomb that is the trade war with China, why he believes flooding in the Midwest could lead to serious price inflation in food, and also gives us his outlook for the precious metals. Don’t miss my conversation with our good friend David Morgan, resource expert and silver market guru, coming up after this week’s market update.

It was a big week for gold, as prices for the yellow metal advanced toward new highs for the year. The gold market is putting in a 3.0% gain this week to trade at $1,345 an ounce.

Gold does face some formidable multi-year resistance in the $1,350 to $1,375 area. But if it can clear that hurdle and then blow through $1,400, it may be off to the races.

Turning to the white metals, silver has a lot more work to do get back on bullish technical footing. Silver’s price performance has lagged behind gold’s so severely that it trades at its biggest discount to gold in nearly 30 years. It could be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy silver on the cheap.

Sunday, June 09, 2019

1990s vs. 2010s - Which Expansion Will be Better for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a tie! The current expansion already lasts as long as the economic boom that started in March 1991 and ended in March 2001. We invite you to read our today’s article, which compares both expansions and find out whether the current boom will be better for gold than the 1990s. 

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a tie! The current expansion already goes on 120 months, the same as the economic boom lasting from March 1991 to March 2001. However, in the previous edition of the Market Overview, we suggested that the current expansion still has room to run. After all, the ongoing boom is very long, but this is because it is very weak. If the US economy is to replay the robust recovery of the 1990s in terms of GDP growth and not merely in terms of number of months, it could grow for additional couple of years.

Now, let’s compare our growth leaders in a more detailed way and draw valuable conclusions for the economic outlook and the gold market. 

Saturday, June 08, 2019

Gold Price Trend Analysis, MACD, Trend Channels, Support / Resistance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

TREND ANALYSIS

The gold price trend off the February $1350 high to the recent low of $1269 appears corrective which implies that the Gold price should at least resolve in a trend back to $1350. The downtrend so far has retraced 44% of the rally to $1350 which suggests that downside is limited to 50% at $1259 that is confirmed by recently constructed support in the $1270 region. So it appears the Gold price is forming a bottom right now in preparation for a breakout higher above the down trendline currently at $1290 that compares against the last close of $1286.

Saturday, June 08, 2019

Gold Surges Near Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold surged sharply over this past week or so, nearing a major bull-market breakout!  Nearly everyone was surprised by this violent awakening, which erupted suddenly as gold languished around year-to-date lows.  If this dramatic rally has staying power, gold has good odds of achieving decisive new bull-market highs.  That would change everything psychologically, ushering gold and its miners’ stocks back into favor.

Gold has largely flown under traders’ radars this year, mostly drowning in apathy.  Actually this unique asset had a strong start, climbing 4.6% year-to-date by mid-February to hit $1341.  While merely a 10.1-month high, gold was close to a major bull-market breakout.  For several years now, gold has faced stiff resistance around $1350.  It has repelled gold multiple times, looking like an impregnable Maginot Line.

But gold’s promising ascent was short-circuited from there, unleashing a disheartening slump over the next 10 weeks or so.  By early May, gold had retreated 5.2% to $1271.  The primary culprit was resurgent euphoria in the US stock markets.  Equity exuberance has long proven gold’s mortal nemesis.  When stock markets are high and expected to continue climbing on balance, gold investment demand often withers.

Saturday, June 08, 2019

Could Gold Rally Above $3750 Before December 2019? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We asked our researchers a question recently, “Could Gold rally above $3750 before the end of 2019?”.  We wanted to see what type of research they would bring to the table that could support a move like this of nearly 200% from current levels.  We wanted to hear what they thought it would take for a move like this to happen and if they could support their conclusions with factual conjecture.

Now we ask you to review these findings and ask yourself the same question.  What would it take for Gold to rally above $3750 (over 200% from current levels) and why do you believe it is possible?

Saturday, June 08, 2019

5 Big Lies About Precious Metals Investing Exposed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Physical precious metals serve a unique role in an investment portfolio. Unlike stocks and bonds, gold and silver coins can be held entirely outside of the financial system. They carry zero counterparty risk. They are the ultimate “buy and hold” safe-haven assets.

Unfortunately, investors must often navigate through a barrage of fake news, myths, misinformation, and fraudulent pitches surrounding precious metals before arriving at the simple truth.

Friday, June 07, 2019

ADL Predictive Modeling Suggests A Big Move In Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is suggesting that Silver is currently well below the projected ADL price level.  We believe the current pricing pressure in Silver is related to global central banks attempt to regulate precious metals prices over the past 24+ months.  We believe the upside move in Gold will eventually roll into Silver and the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting Silver is currently 34% undervalued.

Our ADL predictive modeling system is capable of identifying highly probable price outcomes in the future by tracking and mapping historically accurate similar price DNA patterns.  The chart below shows exactly why we believe Silver is setting up an ADL price anomaly where a big upside price reversion should take place over the next 30 to 90 days.

Friday, June 07, 2019

Gold Price Rally or New Bull Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

In recent days the market has moved from expecting a rate cut by January 2020 to now expecting as much as three rate cuts by then. As a result both Gold and gold stocks launched higher, forming a “three white soldiers” bullish reversal pattern.

Last week and in previous writings, we noted the importance of the actual rate cut for Gold and gold stocks. Their performance in both nominal and relative terms usually takes hold after the actual cut.

Now, the question is, is this a rally or a bull market? (There is a difference even though financial media talks about multi-year bull moves as “rallies.”)

Friday, June 07, 2019

Digging into the Rising Gold: Trade Tensions, Recessionary Worries and Dovish Fed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

President Trump announced a 5% tariff on Mexican goods. It added to the concerns about the state of the U.S. economy and prompted the Fed officials to soften their language. With no end to the U.S. - China trade dispute in sight, gold jumped above $1,330 in response. Can it move higher still?

Gold Rises on Trade Tensions

Good news for the gold bulls! As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has already crossed the level of $1,330, within spitting distance of the 2019 record high of $1,344. What is happening?

Friday, June 07, 2019

Gold and HUI Short-term Strength Is a Strong Call to Action / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

One surprising news was followed by another surprising news. First, Trump told the world about his plan to keep increasing tariffs on Mexico, defying his own party. Then, no hint of relief had come regarding the China trade dispute. Finally, we have got the Fed discussing potential interest rate cuts. Investors have aggressively increased their bets on such monetary policy easing. Gold definitely welcomed that idea. Is its breakout to new 2019 highs inevitable?

It's not a sure bet, but a move to these highs just became more likely. Are the above-mentioned changes in investors’ expectations well founded? Not necessarily.

Typically, gold prices are believed to be inversely related to the interest rates. As a result, the interest rate cut should be positive for the gold prices. However, the cut in the federal funds rate by September is widely expected by the markets, so it should be already priced in. Hence, a lot of will depend on the signal sent by the Fed about the future stance of the monetary policy accompanying that move. But, frankly speaking, we do not see why the Fed should cut the interest rates by September. Unless we see a recession, the cut remains unlikely. The Fed should telegraph it earlier, but so far it only announced a pause in the tightening cycle, not its end. The wait-and-see mode does not necessarily imply a cut later in the future. In 2016, the Fed also paused for a year its tightening (from December 2015 to December 2016), but it did not cut the federal funds rate, it did not reverse the tightening move from the end of 2015.

Thursday, June 06, 2019

The Emerging Threat of Ferocious Agflation / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: MoneyMetals

Most Americans take food abundance for granted. Grocery store shelves are always stocked, and America’s agricultural sector always grows more than enough corn, wheat, and soybean crops to keep the food production system humming along smoothly.

That all could change as abruptly as the weather. In fact, historically wet conditions throughout the Midwest have put this year’s spring planting in jeopardy.

As reported by Minnesota Public Radio, “Corn is being planted at the slowest pace ever, while soybean seeding is the slowest since 1996. And with the start of June looming, many farmers are facing a tough choice — do they even try to get crops in the ground at all?”

Thursday, June 06, 2019

Gold and Silver Vindication... / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses geopolitical events and movements in the precious metals markets. Hallelujah!

It was only a week ago that I was opining that there was nothing ominous in the technical picture for gold and silver that was altering my bullish stance; RSI and MACD were trending up and price was stubbornly refusing to yield to the myriad of bullion bank attacks mission-driven to force a crack of the critical $1,260.90 50-dma level so widely discussed in past weeks. As I show in the chart posted below, the first major up-gap in gold pricing occurred in the days back in October after the ratings agencies decided to "downgrade" the bonds of GE, a company that is now being seen as serially deficient in its reporting practices and masterfully adept at avoiding the long arm of SEC "law" (that's a joke ��) while using the stock price performance to advance book deals for the two rock star CEOs of the '90s and early 00s, Jack Welch and Jeff Immelt.

I actually wrote about GE back in 2005 after listening to a promotional video on the "unparalleled brilliance" of GE Financial whose use of leverage was deemed "second to none." Immelt was regurgitating the company line of "Growth without Regret" that Welch was spewing all through the mid-to-late-1990s with the objective being not an advancement in the "E" part of the price-to-earnings-ratio but rather a simple advancement in the "R," which does not (and most certainly DID NOT) involve any real growth whatsoever. All that Welch and Immelt cared about was the stock price; Welch was obsessed with advancing it while Immelt was obsessed with defending it. In the end, they have both faded off into the sunset and are rarely seen on CNBC anymore while long-term GE shareholders are now seriously underwater and searching for answers as to why-oh-why their retirement nest eggs went into the tank.

Thursday, June 06, 2019

Torrid Advances in Gold ETFs Stocks Warrant Caution / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Michael Ballanger explains how he is reacting to the advances in the gold ETFs. Given the torrid advance in gold (GLD [SPDR Gold Shares]) and the leveraged miner ETFs (NUGT [Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3x]/JNUG [Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3x]), it is of note that RSI readings have screamed northward to the point where I don't think I can recall a shift in momentum quite this quickly or with such torque. Now, it doesn't automatically follow that these ETFs are going to crash. In fact, long after RSI readings topped out in February 2016, NUGT and JNUG continued to make new highs for the move. However, today's set-ups appear to be similar to 2016 so caution is warranted in both exiting too soon and staying too late, so how I deal with that is to take down a portion of the risk and that is precisely what we did yesterday.

GLD is somewhat more overbought than the miners so having pitched 50% of the June $120 calls yesterday (@ $5 plus), I am jettisoning the rest in order to leg out to the September calls at some point in the future. The preferable entry point will be in late June or early July or if the RSI numbers can get back to around 30 and preferably the 20s so as to reflect an oversold condition rather than the current overbought condition we have today.