Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

On the weekend, there was a drone attack against the world’s largest oil processing facility and a major oilfield in Saudi Arabia. Oil prices have predictably spiked, but how will this geopolitical shock affect the gold market in the days ahead?

What Happened?

On Saturday, the drone bombings struck the Abqaiq oil-processing plant and the Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia. Both are important facilities operated by Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer. Nobody was injured, but the strikes triggered large fires, disrupting the global oil supply.

The Houthis, the Iran-backed rebel army that has been fighting a Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen, claimed responsibility for the attack. However, for some people the sophistication of the attacks is the reason to believe that Iran is the one truly responsible.

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

JPMorgan’s Top Metals Trader in the Crosshairs for Illegal Gold and Silver Manipulation / Commodities / Market Manipulation

By: MoneyMetals

Michael Nowak, the global head of trading for both base and precious metals at JP Morgan Chase, has been charged by the US Justice department for his role in an illegal market manipulation operation. Executive Directors Gregg Smith and Christopher Jordan were also indicted.
The three are the latest targets in a widening DOJ criminal probe.

Nowak and Smith and Jordan are the third, fourth and fifth persons to be charged in the criminal price rigging scheme at  JPMorgan. They may not be the last. The bank is the most infamous amongst precious metals investors who have been crying foul over obvious price manipulation for years. 

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

After the news of the drone attack on the Saudi Arabia oil refinery, traders knew this week would be full of bigger price moves, reversals and some real opportunity for profits.  We were also well aware of the risks of engaging in these market moves prior to fully understanding the dynamics of this event.  We heard from many of our friends in the industry about open positions that were not properly scaled to deal with risk – and we know some of our friends took a hit early today.

The real questions before skilled technical traders are:

What will happen with Oil and where will price find the first level of resistance?

What will happen to the US and foreign major markets related to this supply disruption?

Monday, September 16, 2019

Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Avi_Gilburt

Andy Hecht: Natural gas can be one of the most volatile commodities that trade on the futures market. Since 1990, the price has traded from lows at $1.02 to a high at $15.65 per MMBtu. Over the past three decades, the fundamentals for the natural gas market gave changed dramatically. Discoveries of massive natural gas reserves in the Marcellus and Utica share regions of the US and technological advances in hydraulic fracking increased the supply side of the fundamental equation.

Since necessity is the mother of invention, natural gas has replaced coal in the US for power generation. At the same time, technology to liquefy natural gas has expanded the addressable market for the energy commodity. Natural gas used to depend on the US pipeline network for delivery. Today, it travels around the world in liquid form by ocean vessels. Therefore, the demand side of the fundamental equation in natural gas expanded with the supply side.

Monday, September 16, 2019

Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break / Commodities / Uranium

By: Richard_Mills

One week ago Cameco announced it will maintain low output levels until uranium prices recover. The Canadian uranium miner also said it might cut production further, having already closed four mines in Canada and laid off 2,000 of its workers in the uranium mining hub of Saskatchewan.

Monday, September 16, 2019

Gold When Global Insanity Prevails / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger uses storytelling and personal experience to unpack the myths and machinations behind the precious metals and financial markets. "Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper." —Ayn Rand

Why don't we start things off a tad differently this evening? Let me relate to you all a parable from the Book of Quantitative Easing where all is good and noble in the world of government oversight, the most widely used oxymoron in the history of mankind.

Granny Smith, now in her late nineties, wakes up one morning and finds that her dear husband for nigh-on seventy years has gone on to meet his Maker. But alas, as distraught as one would expect her to be, she is covertly delighted because, well, old Egbert Smith was not exactly the man she married and being forced to change his diaper and his bedsheets each night had grown both tiresome and difficult.

Monday, September 16, 2019

What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

What if it’s not a new bull market for gold? What if gold prices are going lower – not higher?

Think it can’t happen? Think again.

In December 1987, gold prices stood at just over $500.00 per ounce. They had been on a tear for the previous three years after hitting a post-peak low of just under $300.00 per ounce in February 1985.

The increase in gold’s price of $200.00 per ounce may not sound like much, but it represents a sixty-seven percent increase over that three year period. Coming on the heels of a similar percentage decline after reaching an all-time high of $850.00 per ounce in January 1980, it was a welcome salve for those who had been wounded so severely.

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

It was a hot monetary policy meeting yesterday. Faced with slow inflation and bleak growth, the ECB eased again, delivering a fresh stimulus package. What does it mean for the gold market?

ECB Strikes Back in Response to Subdued Inflation

Amid the continued shortfall of inflation, the ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points from -0.40 to -0.50. Yes, you read it correctly, from negative 0.40 to negative 0.50. The subzero madness has deepened in the Eurozone. What is more, the central bank announced that the ultralow interest rates would remain until inflation reaches the target:

Friday, September 13, 2019

Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October.  Please take a minute to review the original research post below :

Friday, September 13, 2019

A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

It’s the most widely anticipated recession in history. The recession hasn’t arrived yet – and may not do so anytime soon – but the mainstream media still can’t stop talking about it.

Consider this strange article from NBC News. It purports to show that young adults are posting dark, ironic memes to social media in reaction to a “possible recession looming.” It’s a possible, undated, undefined downturn of unknown severity that millennials are supposedly now coping with in advance!

CNN, meanwhile, sees “signs of a potential looming recession” – more severe in scope, presumably, than the network’s actual viewer ratings recession.

Friday, September 13, 2019

Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed cut the interest rates at the end of July. As the previous easing cycle started in September 2007, many analysts are saying that the current year looks more and more like 2007. We invite you to read our today’s article that compares the current year with 2007 and find out what are the implications for the gold market.

The Fed cut the interest rates at the end of July. As the previous easing cycle started in September 2007, many analysts are saying that the current year looks more and more like 2007. We invite you to read our today’s article that compares the current year with 2007 and find out what are the implications for the gold market.

The recent Fed’s interest rate cut has been the first such since December 2008, when the U.S. central bank slashed the federal funds rate to almost zero. However, the Fed started its previous easing cycle in September 2007, when it cut interest rates by 50 basis points amid the severe slump in housing prices. Is this why many analysts are saying that the current year looks more and more like 2007? Are they right? And what would it mean for the gold market?

Friday, September 13, 2019

Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Energy Sector ETF has been on fire recently with big price trends.  We called a bottom/buy trigger in ERY in early July that resulted in a nearly +20% rally.  Then, on August 29th, we called for ERY to rotate lower, targeting the $46 to $47 level – setting up another price momentum base before another attempt to move higher.  You can read that research post here :

Friday, September 13, 2019

Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

After years of improvements in drilling techniques and impressive "efficiency gains," there is now evidence that the U.S. shale industry is reaching the end of the road on well productivity.

A report earlier this month from Raymond James & Associates finds that the U.S. shale industry may struggling to achieve further productivity gains. If these improvements begin to fizzle out, it could result in "an inflection point in future global oil supply/demand balances," the investment bank said.

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Submissions

President Trump today called for the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates to zero and beyond into negative interest rate policy levels. 

Some onlookers might be shocked to see this strong suggestion by the USA's commander and chief.

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold and gold stocks declined yesterday, but silver hesitated. Does this, plus the fact that gold is up so far in today’s pre-market trading indicate a short-term bottom? Or is the picture even on the verge of turning bullish?

Not at all. Let’s take a look at the chart below for details.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent movement in the precious metals markets, an incredible 33% upside price move since August 2018, has reflected an increased level of fear and greed throughout the global markets.  Particularly, throughout the foreign markets.  Precious metals, specifically Gold, has skyrocketed to some of the highest levels in recent times as foreign currencies devalue against the US Dollar.  Still, consumers, institutions and central governments/banks are buying as much as they can right now.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Bank of England governor Mark Carney, in something of a shocker, told the recent Jackson Hole central bankers’ conference that the world’s reliance on the US dollar ‘won’t hold’ and needs to be replaced by a new international monetary and financial system based on many more global currencies,” according to a Financial Times report. The greatest impact of Carney’s bombshell, though, came not from his opinion on the look and feel of some futuristic global monetary system. It came instead from his seeming tacit approval of the escalating movement to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency in the here and now. A good many in that audience were no doubt surprised – even rattled – by Carney’s remarks.

“Something is going on,” said St. Louis Fed President James Bullard in a Financial Times report, “and that’s causing I think a total rethink of central banking and all our cherished notions of what we think we’re doing. We just have to stop thinking that next year things are going to be normal.” To which FT added: “Interest rates are not going back up anytime soon, the role of the dollar is under scrutiny – both as a haven asset and as a medium of exchange – and trade uncertainty has become a permanent feature of policymaking.”

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Clive_Maund

Sector expert Michael Ballanger offers his observations of recent activity in the gold and silver markets. "The permabulls will tell you that the bullion banks and their treasury department conspirators have lost all power in this 'new paradigm' and we should relax and refrain from worry. I tend to disagree because wounded animals are the singular most dangerous of all creatures on this debt-ravaged planet, and with gold at $1,552, these cartel cretins are now wounded, angry and very desperate animals." —Michael Ballanger, Sept. 2, 2019; silver at $19.00 one day before the top

OK, so now that there is zero doubt surrounding the recent demise of the bullion banks, I was reminded yesterday (amidst the gnarling and gnashing of many a silver bulls' incisors) of a famous Mark Twain quote surrounding rumors of his passing: "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

That is exactly the reply of the criminal cartel last week as bullion bank shenanigans took a page out of the Carpe Diem playbook and absolutely pounded the precious metals with such feral ferocity that they quite predictably set off a retail panic of the highest order. One very prominent gold and silver bull tweeted out, "It should be noted that Crimex silver is still up on the week!", to which I quickly and cynically replied, "Tell that to my margin clerk."

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Gold Significant Correction Has Started / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses the factors he sees pulling gold down. Although a major precious metals sector bull market has certainly started, various fundamental and technical factors came together last week to suggest that a significant correction to the recent strong run-up has now started.

The main fundamental development was the announcement that there will be a Trade War summit between China and the U.S. early next month, with hopes being expressed that this may lead to compromise or some kind of truce. Whilst the chances of improvement may be slim, the market has got what it wants for now which is hope, and this hope should continue at least until this meeting, which provides the excuse for the markets to go "risk on" until then, which is why the stock market broke higher last week, delaying but not eliminating our crash scenario.

A return to "risk on" is clearly not good for the precious metals, which, until last week, had been benefiting from a flight to safety as had the dollar, creating the unusual situation where the dollar and gold were rising at the same time. Now, in a risk on environment they are suddenly out of favor again.

In addition to this fundamental argument we have a range of technical indicators pointing to a correction in the precious metals sector that we will now look at. They include its overbought status, overly bullish sentiment readings and COTs showing extreme readings.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Silver's Sharp Reaction Back / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Clive_Maund

Silver reacted back sharply on Thursday and Friday after a parabolic blowoff top. This was not a final top, but it does indicate that silver needs to take a rest and consolidate/react back, probably for at least several weeks.