Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, September 05, 2019

The Great Gold and Silver Precious Metals Melt-Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund presents his dystopian view of the future. The distinguishing feature of fiat money systems is that they are licentious—they are created by corrupt politicians so that they can act without restraint by, for example, promising the citizens the earth in order to improve their chances of being re-elected. The population can pick up the tab later in the form of devalued money that buys them less. The current dollar fiat money system was created by then President Richard Nixon in 1971, hardly an edifying character, and, thinking about it, it was very apt that it was him who created it by getting rid of the gold standard.

It is inherent in fiat money systems that they self-destruct, since they are essentially fraudulent, their modus operandi being to enable politicians to go on endless spending binges, knowing that society at large will foot the bill as a result of their money being devalued. The current fiat money system, which can be dated back to the ending of the gold standard in 1971, is 48 years old and in its death throes. What happens with fiat is that money becomes increasingly worthless at an accelerating rate until it enters the final terminal phase which is a hyperinflationary vortex that results in it becoming utterly worthless—and we are right on the doorstep of that phase now.

When the global financial crisis hit in 2008—2009 the world was at a crossroads—it is was the last chance to clean up the mess and get back to the straight and narrow. Cleaning up the mess would have involved letting the banks and brokerage houses that created it go bust, but those responsible for it didn't want to "face the music" and they had the political influence to make sure they didn't have to. So, society at large had to pick up the tab for their misdemeanors. They were bailed out at huge cost and the system put on life support in the form of massive fiat creation—quantitative easing—which enabled them to drop interest rates to zero to stop debt compounding and then use the cheap money to engage in an orgy of speculation, while the "little guy" continued to be charged usurious rates if he wanted to borrow any money.

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Silver Is Still A Must-Buy At These Levels / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

We are coming into the traditional season for intense silver rallies. With silver recently making a really important breakout, things are setting up for a memorable period in the silver markets.

Furthermore, the decision to buy silver for the long-term is basically a no-brainer given that the Gold/Silver ratio is still around 80. Below, is a long-term Gold/Silver ratio chart as well as a Silver chart (from macrotrends.net), to illustrate this:

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Gold as a Strategic Asset - in 2019 and Beyond / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Recently, the World Gold Council published a 2019 edition of a report on gold as a strategic asset. The industry organization released later the UK edition as well. Plenty of food for thought. How can the learnings from these publications strengthen our investment decisions?

Why Gold?

Why investors should add gold, that does not bear any yield, to their portfolios? There are a few really good reasons. First, gold is a source of long-term capital gains, and the gold market is both deep and liquid (liquidity is an important but sometimes forgotten factor when establishing a strategic holding by investors). The yellow metal has not only outperformed all major fiat currencies, but also bonds or commodities. According to the WGC, the price of gold has increased by an average of 10 percent per year since 1971 when gold began to be freely traded following the collapse of Bretton Woods. It makes gold’s long-term returns comparable to stocks.

Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Prospecting For Silver During Recessions / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

I am continually amazed at how every turn in the numbers and the economy seems to present new information that is bullish for gold and silver. The train of logic becomes downright laughable at times.

Other than entertaining in a perverse sort of way, the various proclamations and conclusions end up sooner or later in confliction with each other.

One of the more glaring examples involves buying gold and silver because of the possibility of a recession. Why?

Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Gold Price Bull Run Trend Forecast Analysis Update - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2 of 2 of my gold price trend forecast analysis update, (Part 1 https://youtu.be/u1yAB5s8BKQ)

Also this analysis was first made available to patrons who support my work (Gold Price Breakout - Trend Forecast 2019 July Update). So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month

So the gold price has broken out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150. Which means $1370 should now act as a floor under the Gold price, else it's back into the range for several more years! Next resistance is at just above $1500 and then $1800 which is my long-term target for the Gold price as of December 2016.

Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Precious Metals Encounter Long-Term Resistance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

A few weeks ago we wrote that precious metals were at risk of a correction. 

First, they powered higher. But last week they ran into technical resistance levels that date back well beyond only a few years. 

This is true for Gold, Silver as well as the miner ETFs: GDX and GDXJ.

Starting with Gold, we can see that it has struggled to get through $1550/oz. That’s not a surprise as we pointed out this level as resistance since Gold surpassed $1370/oz.

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Global Markets Chaos means Precious Metals will Continue to Rise / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Reading the new today of the riots and protests in Hong Kong as well as the military action between Iran and Israel suggests to us that the metals markets are poised for a very big run this week and possibly much further into the future.

This type of Chaos creates a level of uncertainty in the global markets that will prompt a massive surge in the precious metals markets as traders and investors continue to pour into precious metals as a means to hedge against fear and weakness in the global markets.  At this point, we believe a move in Gold could easily target $1640 or higher and Silver could target just under $21 over the next 5 to 10 days.  This type of move would represent a +7 to 10% rally in Gold and a +10 to 20% rally in Silver.

Monday, September 02, 2019

Macro Implications, as Silver Takes Leadership From Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Since we noted the initial move to break the 200 day moving average – and at least temporarily break the downtrend on August 27th – the Silver/Gold ratio (SLV/GLD) has held its breakout, looking to close the week and the month of August on a signal that we have long anticipated.

Sunday, September 01, 2019

Silver is Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2/2 of my Silver Price 2019 trend forecast update - Part1 - Silver Price Tragets for 2019 - Forecast Update

So the Silver big question for 2019 is will the price be capped at resistance at $21 or like the Gold price breakout of its 5 year trading range to target the next resistance area of $25.

Silver is Still Cheap Relative to Gold

6 weeks ago ago the Gold / Silver ratio was trading at an historic extreme of 90.31, at a level not seen for over 25 years! In comparison to the historic average of 50 which on the then Gold price of $1330 would have had the Silver price trading at $26.60. Which illustrated how much of a coiled spring Silver tends to be as it has tendency to swing sharply higher rather than track the Gold price trend.

Sunday, September 01, 2019

Crude Oil’s Failure Leads to a Profitable Opportunity / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil moved sharply higher yesterday, almost touching the previous August highs, but it didn’t manage to break above them. The resistance that we outlined in the previous Oil Trading Alerts kept the rally in check, and we already see the result. Crude oil simply declines. What’s next? How far can it decline?

In short, the previous outlook remains up-to-date, simply because the situation developed in tune with what we wrote.

Of course, a daily rally appears bullish at the first sight, especially for the inexperienced traders, but this is a false signal. To be clear, a daily rally is not bearish on its own, but it’s not enough to make the situation bullish either. Let’s keep in mind that price tops have to – by definition – happen after a rally, not after a decline… So why is the something-rallied-so-it’s-going-to-rally-again way of thinking so popular? It’s easy to extrapolate the most recent trends into the future as that’s what makes sense… Emotionally. And that’s exactly what makes this business hard in the long run. One of the most difficult trading tips one needs to adhere to in order to make money is that one usually needs to act against what seems so obvious at the first sight.

Friday, August 30, 2019

Gold and Silver Bad Moon Rising / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses trends in the market and his recent trades. For those of you that have followed my raves and rants over the years, you are undisputedly aware of all of my biases when it comes to almost everything: bankers, politicians, invasive species, free market suppression, entitled Millennials, and finally, the utility of precious metals in a "financial order gone wild," which is precisely where we reside today.

I sat on the stern platform of my boat looking at the moon you see rising in the photo above and over a number of well-oiled glasses of Pinot Grigio, I snapped the photo thinking that soon the sound of lamenting loons would be replaced by the torturous howl of timber wolves, a sound vivid in my memories from boyhood excursions in Algonquin Park. It is said that the most beautiful sound in all of nature is the final wail of the black swan in its dying moments, a sound so powerful that the ultra-famous rock band "Led Zeppelin" named their "Swan Song" record label after it.

Well, while financial events do not normally involve sounds, the haunting specter of seeing over 65% of all bonds issued around the world paying a negative return evokes memories of a "bad moon rising" of which ancient folklore of the lunar omen has filtered down through generation after generation. The problem here in 2019 is that NO generation has EVER encountered a financial instrument paying a negative yield because if you buy one, you have to pay the issuer to hold it. This absolute insanity is the nuclear torpedo in that is heading for the starboard side of the Good Ship "Modern Monetary Theory" as she steams headlong into the abyss becoming rapidly known as the "Japanification" of all things financial.

Friday, August 30, 2019

Gold: the Ultimate Recession Hedge 20 Years after Brown Bottom? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The new Alchemist went out at the end of July. And making the choice from its articles is always hard. What gems can we learn from the latest publication of the LBMA? We invite you to read our today’s article and find out!

Gordon’s Brown Bottom, 20 Years On

The first article we would like to summarize for you is “Gordon’s Brown Bottom, 20 Years On” by Adrian Ash, Director of Research at BullionVault.

July 2019 marked 20 year since the Brown Bottom. If you did not hear about it, in July 1999, the UK began its infamous gold auctions, more than halving the nation’s gold reserves in three years. The decision, and its timing, is a mysterious error. One thing is that it was announced two months in advance which sent prices 10 percent lower before the first sale began. Why would a seller want to do that?

Friday, August 30, 2019

Will Silver’s Surprising Summer Surge Continue? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Just a few weeks ago, silver naysayers told us we’d have to wait months, or even years, before the market made a big move. Now they are eating their words!

The white-hot metal surged past $18.50/oz this morning to reach its highest level in more than two years.

Silver is up more than 13% in the month of August alone, a time when many precious metals analysts had expected summer doldrums. Even some long-term silver bulls became short-term bears. 

The widespread pessimism toward silver is totally understandable given its performance characteristics over the past few years. 

Friday, August 30, 2019

Price Of Gold Is A Reflection of US Dollar; Not US Dollar Index / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Several articles by others recently have pointed out the apparent inconsistency of the US dollar’s action relative to the price of gold. For example, over the past year the US dollar Index has continued to strengthen, while gold has also risen in price.

That would seem to indicate that the US dollar’s value is not a primary factor in determining the price of gold. As we have said, though, the US dollar Index is not the same thing as the US dollar. The two are not interchangeable.

The US dollar Index (see Gold – US Dollar Vs. US Dollar Index) is a comparison of the US dollar versus a basket of other currencies (Euro, Yen, etc.) on an exchange rate basis . As such, it does not tell us anything about gold, positive or negative.

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Energy Sector Setting Up For Another Big Trade / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team has been nailing some really great trades recently in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, ETFs, and many other market segments.  Some of these trades have resulted in fantastic gains of +10% to +20% for our members. 

One trade in particular that we called back in July was the Energy trade in Crude Oil and ERY.  Specifically, we suggested that Crude Oil would fall based on our ADL predictive modeling system and that ERY would set up a very nice trade with targets set relatively close to the basing/bottom pattern. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast signals newsletter

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Precious Metals Complex Super Bases / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

The most important part of investing is knowing if you are in a bull or bear market. It’s always much easier to trade in the direction of the main trend. There are times when a market is reversing from bull to bear or vise versa that there is not a lot of confirmation the turn has completed which leaves one apprehensive about getting fully invested. The more clues you can get that the major trend has reversed the more confident you can become to put your hard earned capital to work.

Over the last year or two we have been slowly gathering clues on the PM complex that is reversing from the 2011 bear market to the new bull market which has just started to takeoff. There are still many investors that can’t believe the 2011 bear market is over and are gun shy to put capital to work in the PM complex. This is perfectly understandable because the job of a bear market is to crush any optimism one may have had with the PM complex.

Tonight I would like to show you some super bases that will leave no question in your mind that the PM complex has indeed reversed course from the 2011 bear market to a new and long term bull market that will have many years to run. I know you are tired of me saying, “big patterns lead to big moves.” but the charts to follow will show you exactly what I mean by that statement.

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Silver Is Ready To Take Out Key Levels / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver is now ready to follow gold and successfully signal its bull market. In fact, it is important that silver do so, in order to provide another confirmation that gold’s recent rally is “real”.

The following technique (as presented previously) could provide a way to track silver until it provides that clear bull market signal.

Below, is a long-term silver chart:

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Gold and Silver About To Pull A Crazy Ivan / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Nearly a month ago, we authored our “Crazy Ivan” research post suggesting that precious metals were about to pull a massive “crazy price move” while the US and Global markets breakdown in an attempt to revalue risk, support, resistance, and other unknown factors trying to “revalue” price to more suitable levels given future expectations.

The moves in Gold and Silver over the past 4+ weeks has been incredible.  The biggest surprise is in silver, even though we called this move as well.  The way precious metals prices transition through periods of risk or fear is that Gold increases in value as fear drives investors into Gold.  Whereas, Silver, the lesser shiny metal, which has seen prices further depressed over the past 5+ years, attempts to revert to a less depressed “fair value” to Gold.  This process happens every time Gold begins to move substantially higher and results in an incredible opportunity for Silver traders. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Heightened Risk, Easy Money and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In recent months, the World Gold Council released a few interesting reports. What can we learn from the publications? We’ll then supplement it with the view of the Fed policies. Will gold like the message?

Gold Demand Trends Q2 2019

On August 1, the WGC published a new edition of its quarterly report on gold demand. According to the organization, the supply of gold grew 6 percent (recycling jumped 9 percent, while mine production increased 2 percent), while the demand for gold rose 8 percent year-over year to 1,123 tons in the second quarter of 2019.

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Niche Gold Stocks Are the Best Way to Invest in Gold Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Robert_Ross

For your sake, I hope you already have some gold in your portfolio.

Gold is on an amazing run. It’s up over 21% since last August.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up a mere 0.7%, as you can see in the chart below.