Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It has taken a few weeks to play out but our warning of a correction in precious metals (first on August 18) is coming to pass. 

Last week Gold, Silver and GDX all formed big bearish reversals at multi-year resistance levels. Yes, these resistance levels (Gold $1550, Silver $18.50, GDX 31) date back to 2013.

Bonds and precious metals have benefitted from the shift in Fed policy as well as fears of recession and growth in negative interest rate bonds. 

These drivers could pause or shift temporarily and that would be supportive of stocks and not precious metals. Let me explain.

Monday, September 09, 2019

Buying Pullbacks in Silver & Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

By Andy Hecht : After a very bullish summer, it was a week of reversals in the metals markets. The impact of gravity hit the gold and silver markets late last week after both had made new highs. Meanwhile, copper went the other way as the early week new low led to a significant price recovery by the end of the week.

The daily chart of December gold futures highlights the move to a marginal new high at $1566.20 on September 4 that gave way to the selling that dropped price by over $50. Gold has held the $1500 level so far, but time will tell if the reversal on the weekly chart brings a new wave of selling next week.

Monday, September 09, 2019

Large Drop in Stocks, Big Rally in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The week ahead, looks treacherous for the stock market, but should be a boon for gold, silver and share mining stocks. The cycles, waves and astro aspects are coming together nicely for a possible quick 6% drop on the S&P 500.

The SPX chart below shows the 16 TD top on Sept 5, along with a first quarter moon and Bradley turn. We are going into the 5/35 week cycle low in a 4 year cycle low from late 2015 due Monday-Friday (9/9-13).  These usually go lower than the previous 10 week low that occurred on Aug 5. I don’t believe we go much below 2780 as an extreme target, perhaps as much as 42 points below the August 5 low of 2822.

Sunday, September 08, 2019

Precious Metals Were Ripe for a Pullback / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

If you hear one peep out of the gold community about a precious metals “take down”, “attack” or any other such aggressive or war-like language you will then be hearing some old fashioned and promotional gold bug orthodoxy. Fortunately, a casual look around the Bug-o-Sphere does not yield too many obvious conspiracy theorists or importantly, cheerleaders.

Indeed, it seems that all too many bugs expected this correction in gold, silver and the miners. That is a good thing because when the real top comes these ladies are going to be out front and greed will be running rampant (quite possibly against a negative fundamental or valuation backdrop as in 2008).

Instead, everybody it seems knew about the high risk Commitments of Traders situation for gold and silver. The CoT is not a timer, but for weeks now it had been a condition that’s been in place for a correction. It’s not a “take down”, it’s a condition of too much speculation that had to be addressed. Now it is. Other CoT data available here.

Saturday, September 07, 2019

Fed’s Cut Puzzle and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

At the end of July, the Fed trimmed the federal funds rate. However, the dovish U-turn within the FOMC amid solid US economy remains a mystery. We invite you to read our today’s article about the Fed’s cut puzzle and its find out what does it mean for the gold market.

At the end of July, the Fed trimmed the federal funds rate. However, the dovish U-turn within the FOMC – just half a year after an interest rate hike – remains a mystery. After all, the data indicates that the labor market remains strong – unemployment rate is still at the record low – while the GDP has been rising at a moderate rate. While the inflation rate is below the target, it’s still significantly above the deflation zone. So why the heck did the Fed cut rates? The answer to this question is of great importance as long-term implications for gold differ depending on the possible reason.

First, the U.S. central bank could lower interest rates because Powell could not stand the pressure of the White House and the merciless tweets of Donald Trump. The Fed is, of course, nominally independent, but investors should not be naïve. The past presidents and policymakers also applied pressure on the Fed. The most famous example is the story how in 1965, President Lyndon Johnson summoned William McChesney Martin, the Fed Chairman, to his Texas ranch where Johnson physically shoved him around living room, yelling in his face, “Boys are dying in Vietnam, and Bill Martin doesn’t care.” The only difference is that past presidents tended to stick to creating pressure behind closed doors, while Trump is simply more public. If true, it would be a very positive scenario for gold prices. The politicians love low interest rates, and Trump is a particularly vocal supporter of cheap money.

Saturday, September 07, 2019

Gold Stocks Very Overbought / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have grown very overbought after soaring dramatically higher in recent months.  Blasting really far really fast has left this sector really stretched technically and sentimentally.  Excessive gains and greed always soon lead to major corrective selloffs, which are necessary to restore balance.  All bull markets, even the most powerful, flow and ebb.  Big uplegs are inevitably followed by corrections.

With gold and gold stocks plunging hard Thursday morning, the timing of this research thread is certainly lucky.  My weekly-web-essay workflow is well-defined, this happens to be the 877th I’ve written.  I have to decide on each week’s topic by early Wednesdays, to do the research and build necessary spreadsheets and charts that day.  Then I write and proof these essays Thursdays, so they can be published early Fridays.

Even before this latest bout of selling erupted, the serious downside risks facing overbought gold stocks were readily apparent.  According to virtually every technical indicator out there, this sector was looking ever-more extreme in recent weeks.  The longer and farther gold stocks surged, the greater the odds for a selloff.  I warned about this Saturday morning in the conclusion to our latest monthly newsletter for subscribers.

Friday, September 06, 2019

Why College-Bound Students Consider Buying Gold Instead, Expect 3 Year Gold Bull Run / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Later in today’s program we’ll hear a fascinating interview with Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial. Greg breaks down the recent move in silver, a move off of a breakout point he called spot on on this program a few weeks ago, and also gives us his thoughts on the pullback we saw on Thursday.

Greg also tells us at what price on the downside he expects will provide major support in both gold and silver if we do see a further pullback from here. So, don’t miss my interview with the man they call the Gold Guru, coming up after this week’s market update.

This week brought more big moves in precious metals markets. The biggest mover, no surprise, is silver.

Friday, September 06, 2019

Can Crude Oil Price Stay Above $50 To Support Producers Expectations? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent news suggests that oil producers are attempting to increase production levels after failing to attempt to push prices higher by cutting production levels.  Globally, oil producers want to see oil prices rise above $65 ppb in an effort to support profit and production cost expectations.  The real issue for the nation/states that rely on oil production/sales is that the global economy may not cooperate with their expectations over the next 24+ months. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.

On August 6th, 2019, we posted this article suggesting that Natural Gas and Crude Oil were setting up diverging trades.

Thursday, September 05, 2019

The Great Gold and Silver Precious Metals Melt-Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund presents his dystopian view of the future. The distinguishing feature of fiat money systems is that they are licentious—they are created by corrupt politicians so that they can act without restraint by, for example, promising the citizens the earth in order to improve their chances of being re-elected. The population can pick up the tab later in the form of devalued money that buys them less. The current dollar fiat money system was created by then President Richard Nixon in 1971, hardly an edifying character, and, thinking about it, it was very apt that it was him who created it by getting rid of the gold standard.

It is inherent in fiat money systems that they self-destruct, since they are essentially fraudulent, their modus operandi being to enable politicians to go on endless spending binges, knowing that society at large will foot the bill as a result of their money being devalued. The current fiat money system, which can be dated back to the ending of the gold standard in 1971, is 48 years old and in its death throes. What happens with fiat is that money becomes increasingly worthless at an accelerating rate until it enters the final terminal phase which is a hyperinflationary vortex that results in it becoming utterly worthless—and we are right on the doorstep of that phase now.

When the global financial crisis hit in 2008—2009 the world was at a crossroads—it is was the last chance to clean up the mess and get back to the straight and narrow. Cleaning up the mess would have involved letting the banks and brokerage houses that created it go bust, but those responsible for it didn't want to "face the music" and they had the political influence to make sure they didn't have to. So, society at large had to pick up the tab for their misdemeanors. They were bailed out at huge cost and the system put on life support in the form of massive fiat creation—quantitative easing—which enabled them to drop interest rates to zero to stop debt compounding and then use the cheap money to engage in an orgy of speculation, while the "little guy" continued to be charged usurious rates if he wanted to borrow any money.

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Silver Is Still A Must-Buy At These Levels / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

We are coming into the traditional season for intense silver rallies. With silver recently making a really important breakout, things are setting up for a memorable period in the silver markets.

Furthermore, the decision to buy silver for the long-term is basically a no-brainer given that the Gold/Silver ratio is still around 80. Below, is a long-term Gold/Silver ratio chart as well as a Silver chart (from macrotrends.net), to illustrate this:

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Gold as a Strategic Asset - in 2019 and Beyond / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Recently, the World Gold Council published a 2019 edition of a report on gold as a strategic asset. The industry organization released later the UK edition as well. Plenty of food for thought. How can the learnings from these publications strengthen our investment decisions?

Why Gold?

Why investors should add gold, that does not bear any yield, to their portfolios? There are a few really good reasons. First, gold is a source of long-term capital gains, and the gold market is both deep and liquid (liquidity is an important but sometimes forgotten factor when establishing a strategic holding by investors). The yellow metal has not only outperformed all major fiat currencies, but also bonds or commodities. According to the WGC, the price of gold has increased by an average of 10 percent per year since 1971 when gold began to be freely traded following the collapse of Bretton Woods. It makes gold’s long-term returns comparable to stocks.

Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Prospecting For Silver During Recessions / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

I am continually amazed at how every turn in the numbers and the economy seems to present new information that is bullish for gold and silver. The train of logic becomes downright laughable at times.

Other than entertaining in a perverse sort of way, the various proclamations and conclusions end up sooner or later in confliction with each other.

One of the more glaring examples involves buying gold and silver because of the possibility of a recession. Why?

Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Gold Price Bull Run Trend Forecast Analysis Update - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2 of 2 of my gold price trend forecast analysis update, (Part 1 https://youtu.be/u1yAB5s8BKQ)

Also this analysis was first made available to patrons who support my work (Gold Price Breakout - Trend Forecast 2019 July Update). So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month

So the gold price has broken out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150. Which means $1370 should now act as a floor under the Gold price, else it's back into the range for several more years! Next resistance is at just above $1500 and then $1800 which is my long-term target for the Gold price as of December 2016.

Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Precious Metals Encounter Long-Term Resistance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

A few weeks ago we wrote that precious metals were at risk of a correction. 

First, they powered higher. But last week they ran into technical resistance levels that date back well beyond only a few years. 

This is true for Gold, Silver as well as the miner ETFs: GDX and GDXJ.

Starting with Gold, we can see that it has struggled to get through $1550/oz. That’s not a surprise as we pointed out this level as resistance since Gold surpassed $1370/oz.

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Global Markets Chaos means Precious Metals will Continue to Rise / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Reading the new today of the riots and protests in Hong Kong as well as the military action between Iran and Israel suggests to us that the metals markets are poised for a very big run this week and possibly much further into the future.

This type of Chaos creates a level of uncertainty in the global markets that will prompt a massive surge in the precious metals markets as traders and investors continue to pour into precious metals as a means to hedge against fear and weakness in the global markets.  At this point, we believe a move in Gold could easily target $1640 or higher and Silver could target just under $21 over the next 5 to 10 days.  This type of move would represent a +7 to 10% rally in Gold and a +10 to 20% rally in Silver.

Monday, September 02, 2019

Macro Implications, as Silver Takes Leadership From Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Since we noted the initial move to break the 200 day moving average – and at least temporarily break the downtrend on August 27th – the Silver/Gold ratio (SLV/GLD) has held its breakout, looking to close the week and the month of August on a signal that we have long anticipated.

Sunday, September 01, 2019

Silver is Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2/2 of my Silver Price 2019 trend forecast update - Part1 - Silver Price Tragets for 2019 - Forecast Update

So the Silver big question for 2019 is will the price be capped at resistance at $21 or like the Gold price breakout of its 5 year trading range to target the next resistance area of $25.

Silver is Still Cheap Relative to Gold

6 weeks ago ago the Gold / Silver ratio was trading at an historic extreme of 90.31, at a level not seen for over 25 years! In comparison to the historic average of 50 which on the then Gold price of $1330 would have had the Silver price trading at $26.60. Which illustrated how much of a coiled spring Silver tends to be as it has tendency to swing sharply higher rather than track the Gold price trend.

Sunday, September 01, 2019

Crude Oil’s Failure Leads to a Profitable Opportunity / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil moved sharply higher yesterday, almost touching the previous August highs, but it didn’t manage to break above them. The resistance that we outlined in the previous Oil Trading Alerts kept the rally in check, and we already see the result. Crude oil simply declines. What’s next? How far can it decline?

In short, the previous outlook remains up-to-date, simply because the situation developed in tune with what we wrote.

Of course, a daily rally appears bullish at the first sight, especially for the inexperienced traders, but this is a false signal. To be clear, a daily rally is not bearish on its own, but it’s not enough to make the situation bullish either. Let’s keep in mind that price tops have to – by definition – happen after a rally, not after a decline… So why is the something-rallied-so-it’s-going-to-rally-again way of thinking so popular? It’s easy to extrapolate the most recent trends into the future as that’s what makes sense… Emotionally. And that’s exactly what makes this business hard in the long run. One of the most difficult trading tips one needs to adhere to in order to make money is that one usually needs to act against what seems so obvious at the first sight.

Friday, August 30, 2019

Gold and Silver Bad Moon Rising / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses trends in the market and his recent trades. For those of you that have followed my raves and rants over the years, you are undisputedly aware of all of my biases when it comes to almost everything: bankers, politicians, invasive species, free market suppression, entitled Millennials, and finally, the utility of precious metals in a "financial order gone wild," which is precisely where we reside today.

I sat on the stern platform of my boat looking at the moon you see rising in the photo above and over a number of well-oiled glasses of Pinot Grigio, I snapped the photo thinking that soon the sound of lamenting loons would be replaced by the torturous howl of timber wolves, a sound vivid in my memories from boyhood excursions in Algonquin Park. It is said that the most beautiful sound in all of nature is the final wail of the black swan in its dying moments, a sound so powerful that the ultra-famous rock band "Led Zeppelin" named their "Swan Song" record label after it.

Well, while financial events do not normally involve sounds, the haunting specter of seeing over 65% of all bonds issued around the world paying a negative return evokes memories of a "bad moon rising" of which ancient folklore of the lunar omen has filtered down through generation after generation. The problem here in 2019 is that NO generation has EVER encountered a financial instrument paying a negative yield because if you buy one, you have to pay the issuer to hold it. This absolute insanity is the nuclear torpedo in that is heading for the starboard side of the Good Ship "Modern Monetary Theory" as she steams headlong into the abyss becoming rapidly known as the "Japanification" of all things financial.

Friday, August 30, 2019

Gold: the Ultimate Recession Hedge 20 Years after Brown Bottom? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The new Alchemist went out at the end of July. And making the choice from its articles is always hard. What gems can we learn from the latest publication of the LBMA? We invite you to read our today’s article and find out!

Gordon’s Brown Bottom, 20 Years On

The first article we would like to summarize for you is “Gordon’s Brown Bottom, 20 Years On” by Adrian Ash, Director of Research at BullionVault.

July 2019 marked 20 year since the Brown Bottom. If you did not hear about it, in July 1999, the UK began its infamous gold auctions, more than halving the nation’s gold reserves in three years. The decision, and its timing, is a mysterious error. One thing is that it was announced two months in advance which sent prices 10 percent lower before the first sale began. Why would a seller want to do that?