Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, October 04, 2019

ADL Predicts Crude Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

There are times when our research team interprets our advanced predictive modeling systems so well that we call a move in the markets 3 to 10+ months in advance of the move actually happening.  It has happened for our team of research so often lately that we are somewhat used to the accolades we receive from our followers and members.  Our October 2018 Gold price predictions are still playing out  accurately and continue to amaze people – even though we made these predictions over 12 months ago.

Today, we wanted to highlight our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling systems expectations for Crude Oil, but before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter. The research post we made on July 10, 2019 (see below).  At that time, we warned that Crude Oil was about to head much lower and that our ADL modeling system was suggesting that Oil prices would rotate between $47 and $64 before breaking much lower in November 2019.  Ultimately, Oil prices will fall below $40 ppb following our timeline and could begin a broader downside move before the end of October 2019.  Read our full prediction/research report from the link below.

Friday, October 04, 2019

Stumbling Manufacturing and Rising Gold – Now or Later? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

American manufacturers are scoring ever deeper recessionary readings. We haven’t seen this bad an ISM Manufacturing reading in quite a while. Can it take the broader economy with it? And what about gold – when exactly will it get its shine?

ISM Manufacturing Index Drops To Disturbingly Low Level

The September ISM Manufacturing Index registered 47.8 percent, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the August reading of 49.1 percent. It’s not only below 50 percent, which indicates a contraction, but it’s actually the lowest level since June 2009, when the Great Recession formally ended, as the chart below shows.

Friday, October 04, 2019

Silver Eyes Fourth Quarter Rebound / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets enter the often favorable fourth quarter trading season with the potential to reinvigorate their major uptrends.
Despite posting impressive gains in the third quarter, gold and (especially) silver finished it on a downbeat note.

On Monday, sellers smashed silver spot prices down 3.6% to test the $17.00/oz. level.

The disappointing finish to the month and the quarter does raise the possibility that momentum selling could continue to drag prices lower in the near term. However, quarter-end profit taking and portfolio shuffling by institutional futures traders could also work in favor of an immediate price bounce.

Thursday, October 03, 2019

Gold Price Forecast to Exceed $10,000/Ounce / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nick_Barisheff

Before making an investment decision, every investor should understand true inflation. But what is true inflation? Currently, inflation is measured using a floating basket of goods in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which continues to understate true inflation.

Two useful tools for determining true inflation figures are John Williams’s Shadow Statistics and the Chapwood Index.  John Williams, a renowned economist, provides excellent insights about the severity of misstated inflation rates. Using a fixed basket from 1980 to compare to today’s prices determines that inflation is actually 9.46%, not 1.75% as represented by the CPI.  Exhibit A provides a visual interpretation of discrepancies between reported inflation and true inflation.

Thursday, October 03, 2019

A Simple, But Elegant Resolution In The Precious Metals Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

Originally published on Sat Sep 28 for our ElliottWaveTrader members: With the various charts we track unable to complete 5 waves up off the low struck two weeks, it would seem that we can count all of those charts as having just completed a corrective rally top, with more pullback likely to be seen. In fact, this is primarily why I have been stressing that I was treating the last rally as a corrective one until otherwise proven by the market.

Thursday, October 03, 2019

When Will the Turnaround in Gold Likely Come? Implications for Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In yesterday’s analysis, we emphasized that even though a big decline in gold is already underway, it’s likely that it won’t be a straight move down and there will be periodic corrections. Moreover, we provided price targets from which the bounce could start. Based on the circumstances, it might even be a tradable move. In today’s analysis, we’re going to show you that there are signals suggesting that the turnaround might start relatively soon – during this month.

But first, let’s take a look at the most recent price changes.

Thursday, October 03, 2019

Deflation or Inflation: Gold Doesn't Care / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss recession, central bank panic and an outrageous gold price.

In our view, gold investors should settle back with some popcorn and enjoy the coming fireworks, which will include the best gold bull market ever, with all the volatility that implies. We see new all-time highs just around the corner. The challenge is to take a position and stay the course. Central banks are about to pay for decades of bad policy and gold will reap the dividends.

Wednesday, October 02, 2019

Last Train Out for Gold, Silver and Platinum Bulls? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The people who are prepared are going to reap rewards such as they have never dreamed. We're going to have the biggest transfer of wealth in history – from the fools – to those who are prepared. – Bob Moriarty

The run up of the last few months to $1,565 gold and $19 silver has stalled out into a relatively high-level correction, giving back less than might be expected after such a spirited rise.

Tuesday, October 01, 2019

Silver Q4 Seasonal Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Mike_McAra

What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.

• Ecclesiastes 1:9

History repeats itself. Not always, and not 100%, but often enough and to an extent that’s significant enough to make these repetitions potentially profitable. In order to take advantage of this tendency, we created a tool called True Seasonals (and we are now providing it free of charge). If you heard about seasonality, you already know what to expect, but you may not know what you have been missing. Many things take place at the same time each year (for instance people making a lot of jokes on April Fools’ Day), but quite a few of them take place only more or less regularly.

Tuesday, October 01, 2019

... / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Trump: Transform The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Into An Oil Bank / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Following the attacks on key crude oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump announced the authorization of the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to keep the market well supplied. This move changes nothing in the way the SPR is governed. The market, not the President, should determine the release of the massive SPR.

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Saudi Oil Shock: Who Wins, Who Loses / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Steve_H_Hanke

On September 14th, drones targeted Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil refinery and Khurais oil field. The strikes reportedly knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia's total output. That amounts to a whopping 6-7% of the global daily oil supply. Not surprisingly, before the dust had settled, the press sounded an alarm and spread fear. Then, President Trump jumped in, claiming the attack “won't affect us and ultimately I don't think it will affect the world either.” Well, let’s take a look at the data.

Brent crude prices surged by 15%, from $60/bbl on September 13th to $69/bbl on the 16th, the first trading day after last weekend’s drone attacks. Brent crude is now trading at $65/bbl. While a significant increase, the response to this incident has kept oil in what Arend Kapteyn of the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) deems to be in a safe zone ($50-$75/bbl). When prices are in this sweet spot, the “gains” and “losses” from oil price changes are roughly balanced, so the global economy can hum along without missing a beat.

Friday, September 27, 2019

Silver/Gold Ratio is a Guide as Inflation Signals Fade Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

The interplay between gold and silver is a critical component to understanding what is out ahead; to understanding whether long-term Treasury yields will rise and if they rise, whether it will be due to inflationary pressures. It is a critical component to understanding whether cyclical commodities and other aspects of a greater inflation/reflation trade will finally break existing downtrends. See…

The Continuum is Still in the Deflation Camp (9.24.19)

Pictures of a Reflationary Bounce-a-Thon (9.11.19)

The first and more recent post noted that the 30yr yield needs to climb above 2.2% to even think of hinting toward a temporary inflation trade. The chart from that post shows that while the Continuum is of a long, deflationary structure the periodic pings upward to the (monthly EMA 100) limiter often represent times of cyclical inflationary bursts. This morning the 30 year yield stands at 2.15%.

Friday, September 27, 2019

More smelters, scrap metal ban driving Chinese copper imports / Commodities / Copper

By: Richard_Mills

Despite evidence of a slowing economy, shipments of raw materials are gliding across Chinese docks at a torrid pace, especially metals, which form the backbone of China’s industrial supply chain.

In fact a recent report shows that, while Chinese imports are down 5% compared to last year, and the trade war is hitting China’s manufacturing sector, imports of raw materials and ores “continue their seemingly perpetual upward trend.” 

A blistering trade 

MINING.com quotes BMO Global Commodities Research, the report’s author, saying that “In our opinion, while the trade war has caused many problems for China, it has not shaken the overall commodity business model of importing raw materials, having enough process capacity and ideally exporting a small amount of finished product as an inflation hedge.”

Thursday, September 26, 2019

Will Gold Benefit from Trump Impeachment Proceedings? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

This week, Nancy Pelosi announced that the House would launch a formal impeachment inquiry. Is it a well-grounded argument, publicity stunt or reflection of the growing polarization inside the Democratic party? Storm in a tea cup or not, should Trump be worried? And gold?

What’s This All About?

On Tuesday, Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, announced that “the House of Representatives is moving forward with an official impeachment inquiry.” That’s a big shift among Democrats, who control the House. They were talking about the Trump impeachment for months and for a variety of reasons, but never launched the process. What changed their minds?

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Gold not in Real Bull Market Yet / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Is Gold now back in a bull market? Most gold bugs think so and are quick to proclaim that.

But, could Gold remain in a secular bear market? It hasn’t made a new all time high in 8 years and the perma-bull, financial asset loving crowd certainly believes so.

This is semantics because what really matters is making money and nothing else.

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

The Repo Liquidity Crunch Reveals Market Stress. Will Gold Shine? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last week, the Fed had to inject liquidity into the repo market for the first time since the Great Recession. Not once, but several times – and also commit to do more. Will such a crack in the proverbial dam let gold’s allure shine?

Scramble for Liquidity Pushes Rates Up

The focus last week was on the FOMC decision to cut interest rates. But a real drama was unfolding in the background. The Fed injected $278 billion into the securities repurchase, or “repo,” market over four days, to stabilize short-term interest rates and to calm the repo market scrambling for liquidity. More precisely, the U.S. central bank injected $53 billion in overnight repurchase agreement on Tuesday, followed by $75 billion re-open on Wednesday, then on Thursday and on Friday as well.

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Is Silver About To Become The Super-Hero Of Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you’ve been following our research, you already know how accurately we’ve been nailing the precious metals price moves.  We’ve been calling Gold and Silver accurately since early 2018 and continue to focus a good portion of our efforts in studying these incredible setups.  Let’s have a little fun and start with two charts from near July 20, 2019, to help our followers understand what we’ve been expecting, but first, be sure to opt-in to our free market research newsletter

This first Monthly Silver chart highlights what we believed would be the approximate wave structure of the silver price advance going forward.  We did not attempt to accurately time these peaks of valleys, we simply used our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs to allow price to tell us where these peaks may form.  From those levels, we used our best “guess” to identify the trough bottoms.

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Surprising Advantages Of Investing In Gold, A 50 Year Historical Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Dan_Amerman

One of the most common reasons to buy gold is to use it as a stable store of value. This analysis uses 50 years of history to test that common belief, and finds it woefully lacking - for it misses the best parts of investing in gold.

The graph below will be developed, and we will show that gold is instead a more sophisticated (and desirable) investment than most people realize. When properly understood, gold can deliver unique advantages to knowledgeable investors, and it can be put to much better uses than just acting as a mere stable store of value.

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Crude Oil Price Volatility Returns / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Avi_Gilburt

By Andy Hecht: Crude oil is the energy commodity that powers the world. Over half of the world’s petroleum reserves are in the Middle East, which is the most turbulent political region on the face of the earth. Meanwhile, the United States is the leading consumer of crude oil.

For many years, the US dependence on Middle Eastern oil contributed to its price variance. The Arab-Israeli War in the 1970s led to an oil embargo and gasoline shortages in the US. When I first got my driving license, the US was on a program where gas was only available on alternate days each week depending on if a license plate had an odd or an even last digit. In 1979, the Islamic revolution in Iran led to a hostage crisis and supply concerns in the oil market.