Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, October 08, 2019

Gold It’s All About Real Interest Rates Not the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_Pento

The Federal Reserve’s recent need to supply $100’s of billions in new credit for the overnight repo market underscores the condition of dollar scarcity in the global financial system. This dearth of dollars and its concomitant strength has left most market watchers baffled.

Since 2008, the Fed has printed $3.8 trillion (with a “T”) of new dollars in an effort to weaken the currency and boost asset prices--one would then think the world should now be awash in dollar liquidity. Yet, surprisingly, there is still an insatiable demand for the greenback, leading many to wonder what is causing its strength.  And importantly for precious metals investors, there is a need to understand why this dreaded dollar strength has not served to undermine the bull market for gold.

Monday, October 07, 2019

Silver Is Cheap – And Getting Cheaper / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Silver is definitely cheap. By almost any standard of measurement, the price of silver is cheap. It is cheap relative to gold, it is cheap compared to its recent peak in 2011, and it is cheap historically. For some, that apparently means that silver is a bargain, too. I’m not so sure.

Those who tell us silver is cheap relative to gold say that silver’s price is likely to rise higher, relative to gold, going forward.

But a currently higher gold-to-silver ratio could also drop, favoring silver relative to gold, even if prices for both declined from here, rather than moving higher. In that case, silver’s price would not drop as much relative to gold.

Monday, October 07, 2019

Four Fundamental Reasons to Buy Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

By Andy Hecht : Starting and June and through the beginning of September, gold and silver prices were back in bullish mode. Gold rose to its highest price since 2013 and silver to its peak since 2016. The nearby gold futures contract traded up to a high at just under $1560 per ounce. Silver peaked at just under $19.54.

Markets rarely move in a straight line, and corrections can be healthy for bull markets. A price retracement cleans out stale long positions and creates an environment that brings in new buyers. Some market analysts and traders believe that the two precious metals will experience a deeper correction, and lower prices are on the horizon. I believe that any price weakness in the gold and silver markets will turn out to be a buying opportunity. I remain bullish on the two metals that are the world’s oldest forms of currency. Gold and silver are means of exchange that have been around a lot longer than any of the legal tender in circulation around the world today.

Monday, October 07, 2019

Gold and Silver Taking a Breather / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Richard_Mills

This year at AOTH we have tackled a number of reasons for gold and silver’s rise, aiming to explain “in layman’s terms” what is behind the seemingly relentless move upward - despite the trend-busting reality of a high US dollar. We’ll get to that further down this article, but for now, we are summarizing all that we know about why now might be, in our opinion, an excellent time to be beefing up our gold/ silver bullion hoard, and doubling down on promising juniors exploring for precious metals. 

Gold 

Impeachment safe haven

Washington, DC is once again in turmoil. The talking news heads are all a-twitter over a whistleblower’s statement that President Donald J. Trump had a conversation with the president of Ukraine, about former vice-president Joe Biden, who is seeking the Democratic nomination to run against Trump in 2020. 

Sunday, October 06, 2019

Natural Gas Reloads For Another Price Rally / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As a technical trader, one has to really learn to appreciate when a trade “reloads” for another move higher.  Much like the Gold base/bottom in April 2019 below $1300 that we called back in October 2018.  When a trend confirms and we can see the potential for upside profits, but price performs a “deep pullback” withing that initial trend setup – it is almost like we're dreaming.

After the downside rotation in Gold setup in April 2019, the next move higher pushed Gold prices up to $1550 from levels near $1275 – what a great move that was.  Now, imagine Natural Gas may give us another chance to get long below $2.30 with an upside target near $3.00 before mid-November?  Incredible – right?

Sunday, October 06, 2019

Craig Hemke: Ignore the Elliott Wave “Buffoons” Calling for a Gold Crash / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig is a well-known name in the metals industry and runs one of the most highly respected websites in our space and provides some of the very best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of Keynesian economics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets that you will find anywhere.

Craig, welcome back, and thanks for joining us again. How are you today?

Craig Hemke: Mike, my friend, it's always a pleasure. Thanks for the invite.

Mike Gleason: Absolutely. Love to get you back on and thanks for the time. Well, the recent smash in the metals prices was reminiscent to what we saw in the markets in 2016, at least in silver. Prices ran higher up to about $20 an ounce and then got hammered back down where they continued trading in a range between about $14 and $17 until this year's breakout. Do you think we'll see the metals once again be put back into their box here or do you think it will be different this time around? I guess that's the million-dollar question for silver bugs, what do you think?

Saturday, October 05, 2019

The True Causes Behind the Yield Curve Inversion and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

By now, everyone and their brother has heard about the yield curve inversion. How come it has inverted and how much should we read into it? Is it really such a reliable indicator of an upcoming recession? Let’s dig into the true causes behind the inversion and find out what its meaning for the gold market.

Is the yield curve inverted? Well, it depends. Although the spread between the U.S. 10-year and 3-month Treasuries has normalized somewhat in September, it remained in negative territory. Meanwhile, after a short dip below zero in August, the spread between the U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasuries spent time in positive territory, as the chart below shows.

Saturday, October 05, 2019

Gold Stocks Correction Underway / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks are correcting.  They’ve been sliding and drifting lower on balance since their powerful recent upleg peaked a month ago.  Corrections are normal and healthy in ongoing bull markets, rebalancing sentiment to pave the way for the next upleg.  They also offer the best buy-low opportunities seen inside secular uptrends.  Deploying capital in gold stocks after corrections multiplies wealth-building potential.

While most people dread corrections, battle-hardened speculators and investors embrace them.  They make prices oscillate around their bull-market uptrends, greatly expanding their overall travel.  The more price movement, the more potential upside to ride.  Today’s gold-stock bull proves this.  Consider it in terms of the most-popular gold-stock benchmark and trading vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.

This gold-stock bull was born in mid-January 2016, from the depths of despair after a secular gold bear.  Over the next 6.4 months, GDX skyrocketed 151.2% higher in an epic maiden upleg!  That initial early-August-2016 peak has yet to be eclipsed, but GDX came within 1.2% as this latest upleg peaked in early-September 2019.  So the maximum potential gains by buying and holding this entire bull are still 151.2%.

Friday, October 04, 2019

ADL Predicts Crude Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

There are times when our research team interprets our advanced predictive modeling systems so well that we call a move in the markets 3 to 10+ months in advance of the move actually happening.  It has happened for our team of research so often lately that we are somewhat used to the accolades we receive from our followers and members.  Our October 2018 Gold price predictions are still playing out  accurately and continue to amaze people – even though we made these predictions over 12 months ago.

Today, we wanted to highlight our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling systems expectations for Crude Oil, but before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter. The research post we made on July 10, 2019 (see below).  At that time, we warned that Crude Oil was about to head much lower and that our ADL modeling system was suggesting that Oil prices would rotate between $47 and $64 before breaking much lower in November 2019.  Ultimately, Oil prices will fall below $40 ppb following our timeline and could begin a broader downside move before the end of October 2019.  Read our full prediction/research report from the link below.

Friday, October 04, 2019

Stumbling Manufacturing and Rising Gold – Now or Later? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

American manufacturers are scoring ever deeper recessionary readings. We haven’t seen this bad an ISM Manufacturing reading in quite a while. Can it take the broader economy with it? And what about gold – when exactly will it get its shine?

ISM Manufacturing Index Drops To Disturbingly Low Level

The September ISM Manufacturing Index registered 47.8 percent, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the August reading of 49.1 percent. It’s not only below 50 percent, which indicates a contraction, but it’s actually the lowest level since June 2009, when the Great Recession formally ended, as the chart below shows.

Friday, October 04, 2019

Silver Eyes Fourth Quarter Rebound / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets enter the often favorable fourth quarter trading season with the potential to reinvigorate their major uptrends.
Despite posting impressive gains in the third quarter, gold and (especially) silver finished it on a downbeat note.

On Monday, sellers smashed silver spot prices down 3.6% to test the $17.00/oz. level.

The disappointing finish to the month and the quarter does raise the possibility that momentum selling could continue to drag prices lower in the near term. However, quarter-end profit taking and portfolio shuffling by institutional futures traders could also work in favor of an immediate price bounce.

Thursday, October 03, 2019

Gold Price Forecast to Exceed $10,000/Ounce / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nick_Barisheff

Before making an investment decision, every investor should understand true inflation. But what is true inflation? Currently, inflation is measured using a floating basket of goods in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which continues to understate true inflation.

Two useful tools for determining true inflation figures are John Williams’s Shadow Statistics and the Chapwood Index.  John Williams, a renowned economist, provides excellent insights about the severity of misstated inflation rates. Using a fixed basket from 1980 to compare to today’s prices determines that inflation is actually 9.46%, not 1.75% as represented by the CPI.  Exhibit A provides a visual interpretation of discrepancies between reported inflation and true inflation.

Thursday, October 03, 2019

A Simple, But Elegant Resolution In The Precious Metals Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

Originally published on Sat Sep 28 for our ElliottWaveTrader members: With the various charts we track unable to complete 5 waves up off the low struck two weeks, it would seem that we can count all of those charts as having just completed a corrective rally top, with more pullback likely to be seen. In fact, this is primarily why I have been stressing that I was treating the last rally as a corrective one until otherwise proven by the market.

Thursday, October 03, 2019

When Will the Turnaround in Gold Likely Come? Implications for Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In yesterday’s analysis, we emphasized that even though a big decline in gold is already underway, it’s likely that it won’t be a straight move down and there will be periodic corrections. Moreover, we provided price targets from which the bounce could start. Based on the circumstances, it might even be a tradable move. In today’s analysis, we’re going to show you that there are signals suggesting that the turnaround might start relatively soon – during this month.

But first, let’s take a look at the most recent price changes.

Thursday, October 03, 2019

Deflation or Inflation: Gold Doesn't Care / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss recession, central bank panic and an outrageous gold price.

In our view, gold investors should settle back with some popcorn and enjoy the coming fireworks, which will include the best gold bull market ever, with all the volatility that implies. We see new all-time highs just around the corner. The challenge is to take a position and stay the course. Central banks are about to pay for decades of bad policy and gold will reap the dividends.

Wednesday, October 02, 2019

Last Train Out for Gold, Silver and Platinum Bulls? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The people who are prepared are going to reap rewards such as they have never dreamed. We're going to have the biggest transfer of wealth in history – from the fools – to those who are prepared. – Bob Moriarty

The run up of the last few months to $1,565 gold and $19 silver has stalled out into a relatively high-level correction, giving back less than might be expected after such a spirited rise.

Tuesday, October 01, 2019

Silver Q4 Seasonal Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Mike_McAra

What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.

• Ecclesiastes 1:9

History repeats itself. Not always, and not 100%, but often enough and to an extent that’s significant enough to make these repetitions potentially profitable. In order to take advantage of this tendency, we created a tool called True Seasonals (and we are now providing it free of charge). If you heard about seasonality, you already know what to expect, but you may not know what you have been missing. Many things take place at the same time each year (for instance people making a lot of jokes on April Fools’ Day), but quite a few of them take place only more or less regularly.

Tuesday, October 01, 2019

... / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Trump: Transform The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Into An Oil Bank / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Following the attacks on key crude oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump announced the authorization of the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to keep the market well supplied. This move changes nothing in the way the SPR is governed. The market, not the President, should determine the release of the massive SPR.

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Saudi Oil Shock: Who Wins, Who Loses / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Steve_H_Hanke

On September 14th, drones targeted Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil refinery and Khurais oil field. The strikes reportedly knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia's total output. That amounts to a whopping 6-7% of the global daily oil supply. Not surprisingly, before the dust had settled, the press sounded an alarm and spread fear. Then, President Trump jumped in, claiming the attack “won't affect us and ultimately I don't think it will affect the world either.” Well, let’s take a look at the data.

Brent crude prices surged by 15%, from $60/bbl on September 13th to $69/bbl on the 16th, the first trading day after last weekend’s drone attacks. Brent crude is now trading at $65/bbl. While a significant increase, the response to this incident has kept oil in what Arend Kapteyn of the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) deems to be in a safe zone ($50-$75/bbl). When prices are in this sweet spot, the “gains” and “losses” from oil price changes are roughly balanced, so the global economy can hum along without missing a beat.