Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, March 16, 2020

Gold Miners: Dismissing the inflation Bugs / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Below is a monthly chart of HUI telling some stories of the past.

• The 2003 to 2008 bull rally ended with Huey’s “crown of thorns” as I used to call it back then. An H&S that formed at the end of a great inflationary phase in the markets.
• The great crash of 2008 (Armageddon ’08) was completely deserved because as I’ve belabored for so many years now, you don’t buy gold stocks in any heavy and/or long-term way during cyclical inflationary touts as gold barely keeps up with mining cost commodities and other assets/markets. The crash of Q4 ’08 cleaned out the inflation bugs and it did so with great cruelty and relentlessness. Only when every last bug who’d come aboard for the wrong reasons was exterminated did the bloodshed finally end.
• So who turned and burned first out of the ’08 (deflationary) bottom? Gold and then the miners, that’s who. They led the whole raft of commodities and stocks, which finally bottomed in March of 2009. Then another massive inflation trade ensued, before blowing out in Q1 of 2011. Then? What I called “Mr. Fat Head” formed as the first drop found support at 375, the sector rammed upward on a QE tout, then failed, taking out 460 on the downside and we proclaimed that was that. Welcome to the bear market.
• Then years of a bear crash and grind took HUI down to Mr. Fat Head’s measured target, which was around 100.

Monday, March 16, 2020

Covid19, Bear Markets and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Ron Struthers of Struthers' Resource Stock Report discusses the current market meltdown and the longer-term outlook for the markets and gold.

Although I know of some great companies and stocks out there, it is best just to wait. Markets are going a lot lower and investors in the main indexes and techs won't have a recovery in their portfolios for many, many years. Gold is being sold down too at times but the uptrend is still in place. We can expect a recovery in gold, gold stocks and junior miners this year and then off to new highs in a raging bull market. We will soon have zero interest rates and massive QE. The Fed announced they are pumping up to $175 billion per day in the repo market up from $150 billion. The Fed balance sheet is heading up again and will go at a faster pace now. The red arrow is where it's headed, off the chart.

Friday, March 13, 2020

What's Next for Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

When it comes to our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system, we get asked questions from our friends and followers about how it could predict a virus event or how it could predict a price event so far out into the future.  The truth of the matter is the ADL predictive modeling system doesn’t predict unknown virus, banking or other types of events. 

What it does do, quite well we might add, is identify historically accurate price events (almost like unique DNA markers) and attempts to identify future price events that align with recent price bar (DNA) setups.  In other words, it maps the markets highest probability outcomes by studying past price activity and using a unique DNA-like mapping system.  Once this analysis is complete for any chart, we can ask it what is likely to happen in the future.

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Gold Peeks Above $1,700 amid Coronavirus Fears and Market Turmoil / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

On Sunday, Italy registered a huge jump in new cases of the COVID-19, the stock market plunged, while the oil market crashed. Tuesday morning, and Italy is on lockdown. Meanwhile, gold jumped above $1,700. What’s next for the yellow metal?

Gold Jumps Above $1,700

Last week, I wrote that:
 
from the fundamental point of view, the environment of fear, ultra low interest rates, weak equity markets and elevated stock market volatility should be positive for the yellow metal (…) the good news is that the markets expect further Fed’s interest rate cuts on the way – it lays the foundation for future gains in the gold market.

And indeed, we did not have to wait long for more gains. On Sunday, gold jumped briefly above $1,700, reaching another psychologically important level, as the chart below shows. The yellow metal made it to this price point for the first time since late 2012.

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Gold to Silver Ratio Hits 100! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold is testing its previous 2020 highs, but silver plunged anyway, which created a very special situation. Namely, the gold to silver ratio just jumped to the 100 level.

This may not seem like a big deal, because ultimately people buy metals, not their ratio, but it actually is a huge deal. This ratio is observed by investors and traders alike, as it tends to peak at the market extremes. Moving to the 100 level might indicate that we are at a price extreme. But what kind of extreme would that be if silver is declining while gold moved up?

Let’s take a closer look at the gold to silver ratio chart for details.

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Silver Loses Its Mettle – Part 2 (Technicals) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Last week I talked about unrealistic expectations for the price of silver (see Silver Loses Its Mettle). My comments were centered on two specific factors: 1) silver’s primary role as an industrial commodity and 2) the fallacy of the gold-to-silver ratio.

Both of these items have their root in fundamentals, or lack of them.

In addition, I pointed out the fact that the price of silver has declined significantly in every single recession of the past fifty years.

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Two Scenarios for Precious Metals in the Unfolding Cronavirus Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Extreme volatility in the equity markets has investors wondering what to expect. Even the hardiest of stock market bulls are finally asking some serious questions about whether the top is in.

Stocks have long been priced for perfection and suddenly conditions are looking far from perfect. The coronavirus may be the pin which pricks the latest Fed-blown bubble.

Precious metals investors have been preparing against a rainy day. They may be less surprised by the turmoil in markets over the past couple of weeks. But there are still big questions about how metals prices might behave, especially if the current turmoil in markets should evolve into a full-blown financial crisis.

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Gold Hedging the Decline and Fall of a Currency / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Michael_J_Kosares

The baseline case for gold 320 AD

We sometimes forget that inflation is a process rather than an event. One of the better-known examples of that axiom is the nearly two centuries-long debasement of Rome’s silver denarius – an inflationary episode Jack Whyte, a writer of historical fiction, skillfully addresses in his latest novel, The Burning Stone.

Set in Great Britain in the fourth century AD during the Roman occupation, The Burning Stone is a prequel to Whyte’s engaging, seven-book series on King Arthur – The Camulod Chronicles. Throughout the series, Whyte juxtaposes the rise of Arthur’s Camelot against Rome’s decline. This particular story is told through the lens of a young Roman from a wealthy family with banking, political and military interests who flees to Britain after his immediate family is murdered for reasons that remain a mystery for most of the novel.

Monday, March 09, 2020

Energy Complex Deflation Was All in the Charts / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Rambus_Chartology

I promised you on Friday that I would take an in-depth look at the energy complex in the Weekend Report. If there is one sector to define the possible deflationary event we’ve been discussing for the last several months or so oil is probably the most important commodity of all. Eventually we’ll know the cause in no uncertain terms, but the charts have been suggesting for a long time now that something is afoot and we need to pay attention.

Lets start by looking at the UNG, natural gas fund, as it has been leading the way lower. This first chart is a 10 month daily look which shows a 6 point diamond consolidation pattern which at the time of its development I thought would probably be a reversal pattern to the upside as the price for natural gas was already so low. As you know I usually try to take one position on the initial breakout and a second position on the backtest. I missed the initial breakout and the backtest failed to reach the bottom rail of the diamond so I never got positioned. The other important feature on this chart is the blue bearish falling wedge which we know shows up in fast moving impulse moves.

Saturday, March 07, 2020

Gold and Silver Rally Back After Fed Emergency Interest Rate Cut / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Over the past few weeks and months, our research team has continued to sing the praises of precious metals – particularly Gold and Silver.  After last week’s dramatic selloff in precious metals (attributed mostly to margin call sales), both Gold and Silver rallied almost 3% on Tuesday, March 3 – the day the US Fed issued an emergency 0.50% rate cut.

We believe this move by the US Fed solidified a fear in the global markets that the central banks are preparing for a much broader economic contraction and attempting to front-run weakness by moving price rates lower.  This will help to ease capital restrictions, liquidity across global markets and spur some global borrowing at a time when the Coronavirus may continue to weigh on global economies.  Still, for skilled metals traders, this is likely the rocket fuel we need to see Gold rally above $1800 very quickly and for Silver to rally above $21 quickly as well.

Friday, March 06, 2020

Gold Is the Strongest Currency Since the Coronavirus Scare / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Another tumultuous week in equity and interest rate markets has helped fuel a big pop in safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

The major market moving event was, of course, the Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut on Tuesday. The Fed slashed its overnight funds rate by 50 basis points. But even before the Fed acted, the bond market had already forced its hand as yields on the 10-year Treasury note plunged to record low levels.

By Friday morning, the 10-year treasury yielded less than a paltry 0.90%. That represents almost no reward in exchange for the risk involved. Bond buyers are apparently willing to make a decade-long bet on U.S. government finances remaining solid and inflation remaining extremely low.

It’s still possible for bonds to experience capital appreciation if rates ultimately head to zero or below – as they have already done in other parts of the world. The Fed is almost certain to cut rates again. There is a good chance at least some portion of the yield curve will be at zero later in the year.

Friday, March 06, 2020

Fed Panics over Coronavirus. What’s Next for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Yesterday, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Not during a regular monetary policy meeting, but in a surprising move. But what are the implications for the gold market specifically?

Fed Cuts Interest Rates in Emergency Move

Last week, I wrote that the spread of the new coronavirus to Europe and the inversion of the yield curve make “the Fed more likely to step in and cut the federal funds rate, you know, “just in case”. And in yesterday’s surprise move, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points in response to the coronavirus threat. The decision was unanimous and it was communicated in the FOMC statement as follows:

Thursday, March 05, 2020

Will the Worst of Times for Central Bankers Lead to the Best of Times for Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

During turbulent times like these, markets can be melting down one day… and zooming higher the next. Gold may serve as a fantastic safe-haven asset one day… but get hammered by futures traders the next.

The news cycle can be just as volatile. One report may show the coronavirus is receding in China, while another may raise alarms about its spread in other parts of the world.

One poll may show a socialist candidate for President on the rise, while another may show Americans overwhelmingly approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.

Thursday, March 05, 2020

Gold: Learn from the Actions of the "Smartest on Wall Street" / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

Deep-pocketed speculators miss the big turns -- but you don't have to

Hedge fund managers are considered to be among the smartest people on Wall Street.

Ironically, as a group, they're notorious for consistently being on the wrong side of major turns in the markets they trade. By contrast, a group of insiders called Commercials are generally on the right side of major market turns.

Wednesday, March 04, 2020

Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final part of my Gold price analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for 2020 that was first made available to Patrons who support my work. Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020

• Gold Price Trend Forecasts 2019 Review
• SEASONAL ANALYSIS
• QE4EVER
• US DOLLAR
• LONG-TERM TREND ANALYSIS 
• Gold / SIlver Ratio
• Trend Analysis 
• ELLIOT WAVES
• Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 Conclusion 

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Massive Reversal in Precious Metals but Fundamentals Improving / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

To underscore the volatility of this past week, consider the price action in Silver. 

Silver, days ago, had a chance to make its highest monthly close since October 2016. That is well over three years ago. Silver closed the week and the month at its lowest levels in six months.

One week, precious metals (specifically gold stocks) are on the cusp of a historic breakout, and the next, they are blowing through support levels. Such can be life in this sector.

Before I get to fundamentals, let’s look at the technicals and critical levels for gold stocks.

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Physical Gold and Silver Are Safe Havens, Futures Are Not / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Last week’s market activity was another reminder that not all precious metals investments are created equal.

Investors worried about a virus outbreak and watching the blood bath on Wall Street rushed to buy coins, rounds, and bars.

As one of the largest and most respected U.S. dealers, Money Metals saw the biggest surge of buying activity in years. Clients bought the physical metal as a safe haven, knowing it is scarce, intrinsically valuable and carries no counterparty risk.

Meanwhile, the opposite occurred on the COMEX because buying contracts there is anything but safe.

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Gold Pulled Back, But Coronavirus Did Not / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

While viruses are counted among the simplest forms of life, they have quite a bearing on its advanced forms. And the coronavirus epidemic is, unfortunately, alive and well. What are the implications for the gold market?

Coronavirus Infects Europe

The coronavirus epidemic is, unfortunately, making its presence well known. Actually, it spreads quickly around the globe. The worldwide number of confirmed cases has reached almost 90,000, while the death toll has surpassed 3,000 people.

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Gold Trend Analysis, Elliott Waves and Silver Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Gold / SIlver Ratio

Gold price of $1560 divided of by the silver price of $18.07 results in a ratio of 86.3! The historic norm is for around 50. No I am not saying that Silver should trade to a ratio of 50 to Gold anytime soon. I will cover the prospects for the Silver price in a separate analysis.

So either Silver is CHEAP or Gold is EXPENSIVE, probably a mixture of both, which implies to expect Gold price weakness..

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Everything you needed to know about investing in precious metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Gold. Silver. Platinum. Palladium. Precious metals mined from the bowels of the earth, refined and valued for their unique characteristics.

Since the beginning of civilization itself, humanity has long held an obsession with what is known colloquially as “bling.” Nowadays rather than adorning ourselves with beads and seashells, we’ve turned to precious metal.

If one thing’s for certain, it’s that investors have always turned to precious metals in times of economic uncertainty. Whether it’s their tangible presence as hard assets or long history as a safe haven, precious metals are a great investment.