Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Gold Price Will Hit $3,000, But It's Going to Be a Wild Ride / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Agora Financial's Byron King and John-Mark Staude of Riverside Resources offer their viewpoints on markets during the COVID-19 pandemic in this conversation with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable.

Maurice Jackson: Today, we will seek to discover the true price of gold and silver and prospect generators. Joining us for a conversation is Byron King of Agora Financial, along with Dr. John-Mark Staude of Riverside Resources Inc. (RRI:TSX.V; RVSDF:OTCQB). Gentlemen, I hope you both doing well.

Mr. King, I'd like to begin with you, sir. Bloomberg issued a press release recently that Bank of America expects gold to reach $3,000/ounce, which is a 50% increase from its record. In your opinion, is this a realistic number, or was Bank of America being far too generous or conservative?

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

The Crude Oil Futures Crash Is a Warning to Gold Speculators / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

The metals complex showed relative stability this week as the oil market suffered a historic meltdown. West Texas Intermediate Crude crashed 70% at one point this week on the continuous contract, bringing prices briefly below $7 per barrel. By Thursday, prices were trading between $14 and $18 per barrel.

The volatility on the May futures contract was even more extreme. On Monday, May futures for crude oil crashed to one dollar, then to zero, then to a few pennies below zero, then to an unbelievable negative $37 per barrel.

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Gold and the Debasement of Currency Con / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

It is reasonably well known that many Roman emperors debased their currency (coinage). This was a very bad practice, since it is really a reflection of the debasement of the value of the kingdom (empire or country); going from a honest and just society to a corrupt and unjust society.

One of the reasons (effects) of debasing the currency was the transfer of wealth from the citizens to the ruling class. When the gold or silver content of the coinage is reduced, then more of the official coinage can be made, with a similar amount of gold or silver; therefore, increasing the money supply without the input of more gold or silver.

The increase of the money supply leads to reduced purchasing power, and this is the mechanism whereby they are robbed, since it is the ruling class that essentially bags the difference in purchasing power.

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Gold Stocks Bull Breakout! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks surged to a major bull-market breakout this week!  Powering decisively above their years-old secular resistance is a hugely-important technical event.  It proves this gold-stock bull is alive and well, greatly improves sentiment, and puts this high-flying sector on countless more traders’ radars.  New bull highs fuel self-feeding bullish psychology, as speculators and investors love chasing winners.

The gold miners’ stocks are essentially leveraged plays on gold, since its price overwhelmingly drives their earnings and thus ultimately stock prices.  So gold-stock bulls and bears mirror and amplify gold’s own major market cycles.  Today’s secular gold bull began marching in mid-December 2015, birthed from choking despair.  Gold stocks’ parallel bull arose from the ashes about a month later in mid-January 2016.

The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF is this sector’s most-popular benchmark today.  It plunged to a fundamentally-absurd all-time-record low of $12.47 at that terrible nadir.  This major gold miners’ ETF had collapsed 81.3% during the previous 4.4 years in an exceedingly-brutal bear market!  Left for dead, virtually everyone hated this small contrarian sector.  But such shocking extremes forge new secular bulls.

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Precious Metals Market Premiums, the COMEX and the Macro Picture / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable speaks with Andy Schectman, president of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments, about the present situation with physical precious metals.

Maurice Jackson: Today, we're going to discuss precious metals premiums, the COMEX and the big picture. Joining us for a conversation is Andy Schectman, the president of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments.

Andy, investors in physical precious metals are upset with high premiums over spot for precious metals. Can you discuss the reasoning behind the high premiums, the supply chain, and just a number of the intangibles that really go into what's causing premiums to soar at records highs above and beyond the spot price?

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Uranium's Stealth Bull Market Garners Momentum / Commodities / Uranium

By: The_Energy_Report

With the supply/demand balance moving in favor of miners, the outlook for uranium stocks is the brightest it has been in years, according to McAlinden Research Partners.

SUMMARY: Uranium has been enjoying a stealth bull market due to the coronavirus outbreak. Temporary mine closures to slow the spread of the virus at production facilities have triggered an unexpected supply squeeze, sending the price of uranium up nearly 30% since the beginning of March. According to one analyst, half of global production has been cut. With the supply/demand balance moving in favor of miners, the outlook for uranium stocks is the brightest it has been in years.

Monday, April 27, 2020

How Will You Play the Precious Metals Stocks Bull Market ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

There are as many ways to play the PM sector as there are investors. Some will only buy the big cap PM stocks for safety. Others will only buy the mid cap producers. Some will only buy a mix of big caps and mid cap producers. And then there are the PM stock investors that will only play the juniors. Each has its own advantage depending on your risk tolerance. Some of you are wondering why is Rambus’s portfolio structured like it is with hardly any big caps?

After a great run during the tech bull market that ended in 2000 I was able to basically retire and build our dream home. After that bull market ended I was left looking for another area in which to invest. It wasn’t until early 2002 that I saw a chart for gold which was showing a very large base that caught my attention. Whenever I see a big base I have to study it more to see what is behind the price action. The more I looked, it became apparent to me, that a new bull market may be starting to form in the PM complex.

Monday, April 27, 2020

Gold Price on the Cusp of Reaching $2,100 - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Chris Vermeulen, CEO & Founder of Technical Traders Ltd., joins Tom Bodrovics at Palisade Radio to discuss the markets and Chris says, “This is the time to really be paying attention to the markets… It could be a bloodbath.”

Chris is seeing uncertainty that could bring equities lower as money is flowing into safe havens. The charts are showing that markets are approaching a major inflection point, which could go either way. Both gold and silver should rise rapidly once they get past resistance.

Time Stamp References: 0:45 – Equities and safe havens. 2:00 – Market weakness – bear rally? 4:45 – Charts show a coming inflection point. 9:20 – Charts testing support on gold. 10:20 – Silvers chart is still ugly. 12:15 – What happened in oil? 20:00 – Equities may top and rollover.

Monday, April 27, 2020

Gold Stock Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: readtheticker

Gold stocks are the crazy ride in the markets. The swing are so great it does not matter if you miss a bullish the break out as another deep pull back allows you to enter with ease.

The good news is the (!XAU) PHLX Gold/Silver Index (in the chart below) is very friendly to price cycles. These cycles can be used for timing markets, it also makes it clear if you fight the price cycle you may be in line for a heavy draw down.

At the moment XAU price is making new 52 week highs and the blue cycle line suggest a cycle top is due, therefore it may be wise to wait for price to peak and pullback before building positions. A tactical reason (Richard Ney logic) is the big boys have been accumulating in the friendly institutional stocks and this will attract profit taking [as they do not want to get too far ahead of the wider market] easily sending down the gold stock index and components of the XAU.

Monday, April 27, 2020

GOLD STRAITS OF HELL BREACHED TO UPSIDE / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Denali_Guide

Well boys and girls The Straits of HELL have just been breached, JUMPED with a GAP, which leaves us with one of the LARGEST Island Bottoms of all times, IF not the largest.

To me that signifies that whomever they are, Monetary or Governmental Authorities, Et Al, have lost control.and that Precious Metals will do as they need to, based on the leadtime of the GDX. Good Luck All, BREAK A LEG !!

Sunday, April 26, 2020

What’s Next for Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

From the unimaginable lows, crude oil is shaking off the dust. Moving higher, can it rise like a phoenix?

Before moving to the technical part of today’s analysis, it seems that a quote from yesterday’s Oil Trading Alert would be appropriate:

Crude oil was just trading below 0. Well, not completely, but the nearest futures contract was trading below 0 for the first time ever.

In case you missed it, here’s the screenshot from finance.yahoo.com and yesterday’s price quote as it was falling.

Saturday, April 25, 2020

Junior Gold Miners Dangerously Close to the Cliff / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

There are times to keep being focused on higher timeframes, yet the finer ones do send valuable signals at times too. And today, every precious metals investor better pay attention to their message. Take a look at the below chart featuring the miners.

We will compare the junior miners to what GLD ETF and SPY did. The latter are ETFs representing gold and the S&P 500.

Friday, April 24, 2020

Coronapocalypse Is Deeper than the Great Recession. Will Gold Shine Even More? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The recent economic reports show that the current coronavirus crisis will be bigger than the Great Recession. What does it imply for the gold market?

US Economic Data Paints a Gloomy Picture

This week was full of new reports about the US economy. And guess what, I don’t have good news… First of all, let’s start with the update about the weekly initial unemployment benefits. In normal times, the initial claims are not too keenly watched by investors. But in times of a pandemic, they are very informative. The spike in the initial claims may even become the symbol of this crisis. Anyway, the number of new claims for the unemployment benefits declined from 6.6 million in the previous week to 5.2 million in the week from April 4 to April 11, as the chart below shows.

Friday, April 24, 2020

Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Rambus_Chartology

After a long term bear market in most commodity related stocks we are starting to hear analyst talk about inflation. From a Chartology perspective the deflationary scenario is still in play but how much lower can this sector go? In tonights Weekend Report, I’m going to update some long term commodity charts we’ve been following for years to see where they are currently trading in their bear cycle.

Lets begin by looking at one of the most widely followed commodity indexes the CRB. This 20 year monthly chart clearly shows the bear market began in July of 2008 which puts the age of its bear market at 12 years and counting. The initial crash, out of the 2008 high, was the same crash that the stock markets and PM complex experienced. The countertrend rally out of the 2009 crash low setup the next important high in the ongoing bear market which was the 5 year H&S consolidation pattern. The impulse move out of that 5 year H&S consolidation pattern took the CRB index down to the January 2016 low where we saw another countertrend rally that concluded in May of 2018 forming the head of the 4 year H&S consolidation pattern. The H&S neckline gave way in February of this year and has reached the minimum H&S price objective at 134.23. The CRB index has now reached an important point within its impulse move down where we could see either another small consolidation pattern start forming, similar to the blue expanding triangle halfway pattern in 2005, or some type of reversal pattern.

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Central Banks Fire Bazooka at Coronavirus. Will Gold Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The new coronavirus has already infected the global economy. The global lockdown means that recession is inevitable. The central banks all over the world have stepped in, including the Fed, cutting interest rates and pumping liquidity into the system. We invite you thus to read our today’s article about the monetary policy in time of plague and find out what the fresh central banks’ bazookas imply for the global economy and the gold market.

The new coronavirus has already infected the global economy. The global lockdown means that recession is inevitable. The central banks all over the world have stepped in, cutting interest rates and pumping liquidity into the system.

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Silver Charts Say $5 Or Lower Is Coming / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Even the most casual silver investor must be discouraged with what has happened to silver prices recently. But what about those who were/are super bullish? How do they feel?

As I read various reports and articles, I sense some back peddling on the more extreme predictions which were so prevalent just shortly more than a month ago. On the other hand, I also sense a reluctance to let go; to just admit they were wrong and move on.

Experiencing the reality of silver’s price decline of more than one-third in barely three weeks has left its mark in ways that cannot be ignored. It is ignored, though. And when it isn’t ignored, it is excused; or explained in terms that are supposed to make you feel better, but somehow make you feel worse.

Rather than rehash all of the depressing details verbally, I thought it might be a good idea to look at some silver charts which give us pictures of the damage that has been inflicted on a technical basis.

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

A Massive Gold Bull Market Building / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Imagine, if you will, there was no coronavirus. No haz-mat suits, medical masks & gloves, no make-shift morgues. No terminally ill patients hooked up to ventilators, no horrible deaths without love ones close, no lockdowns, no social distancing, no deserted streets, no bailouts, no emergency wage supplements, just a regular spring with birds chirping and flowers blooming. 

Of course there is no getting away from the covid-19 pandemic that has slammed into populations and economies like a “God of chaos” comet. It seems to have permeated civilization, threatening lives, livelihoods, and the way we conduct ourselves professionally and socially. 

I’d just like to put it into perspective, by looking back at where we were, before all this madness began. Because in the wise words of philosopher George Santayana, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” 

It is tempting, while still in the thick of the pandemic, to don rose-colored glasses, but weeks before the onset of covid-19, we were writing how things were not going as well as they appeared, with the global economy. 

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

The Subtle Precious Metals Signals Keep Coming In / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The greenback exerts powerful influence on the precious metals – that has been the case yesterday, and it unsurprisingly continues to be so also today. So, what message is the USDX sending out right now?

USD Index in the Spotlight

We’ll open up with a quote from yesterday’s Alert (by the way, please remember that all charts are expandable/clickable):

Looking at the 4-hour candlestick chart, we see that the USD Index just formed a reversal and is now testing the previous lows. There were very few 4-hour reversals in the recent days, but when we saw them, big and fast rallies followed. The early-March bottom is particularly similar to the current situation as the USD Index is – just like back then – after a visible decline, and the 4h reversal was followed by a re-test of the intraday low.

Monday, April 20, 2020

Supply, Demand, and Depreciation: Key Drivers for Copper, Gold and Silver as the Economy Reopens / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: MoneyMetals

The metals markets are being pulled in multiple directions simultaneously like never before. The global virus-triggered economic freeze has caused industrial demand for all commodities to crater.

At the same time, mining output is also crashing as virus fears force many mines around the world to suspend operations.

What is the “right” equilibrium price for copper, silver, gold, and other metals in an environment of such extreme and unstable supply and demand stresses? The verdict of the market changes – often dramatically – day by day.

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Does Gold Really Care Whether Coronavirus Brings Us Deflation or Inflation? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

One of the many bothering issues about the coronavirus crisis, is whether it will turn out to be inflationary or deflationary. What do both of these scenarios mean for gold ahead?

US Inflation Rate Declines in March

Many people are afraid that the coronavirus crisis will spur inflation. After all, the increased demand for food and hygiene products raised the prices of these goods. Moreover, the supply-side disruptions can reduce the availability of many goods, contributing to their increasing prices.