Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, August 15, 2017
Gold Set To Rise While Debt-Based Assets Collapse / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
In a previous article, I have shown how economic conditions, today, appear very similar to that of the early 80s (circa 1983). These similar conditions show up on the long-term gold and Dow charts, as shown in that article.
Now, if those similarities continue, then the Dow will continue much higher from this point on, while gold will go into a long-term bear market. However, I have also pointed out that there are just too many fundamental obstacles, that would make such a scenario almost impossible.
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Tuesday, August 15, 2017
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Nearing Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
The outlook for precious metals has changed quite a bit over the last month. In early July, Gold and gold stocks were weak and threatening severe breakdowns below key levels such as $1200 Gold and $21 GDX. Those moves reversed course and now Gold and gold stocks are threatening resistance. The prognosis has turned bullish and with the help of a correcting stock market precious metals could build on their recent rebound.
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Monday, August 14, 2017
Gold Price Is Facing 1300 Resistance Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
After a minor consolidation, XAUUSD moved above 1274.08 resistance and extended its upside movement from 1204.77 to as high as 1292.05, facing the important psychological level at 1300 once again.
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Saturday, August 12, 2017
Gold Stocks Coiled Spring / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017
The gold miners’ stocks have largely ground sideways this year, really lagging gold’s strong rally. That lack of upside has decimated sentiment, leaving a bearish wasteland bereft of hope. But this deeply-out-of-favor sector is actually a coiled spring, ready to surge dramatically as psychology shifts. Sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals all point to much-higher gold-stock prices even at today’s prevailing gold levels.
The main appeal of gold-mining stocks is their underlying profits’ leverage to gold. The gold stocks are much riskier than gold, due to many operational, geological, and geopolitical risks the metal itself doesn’t share. So investors and speculators alike must be compensated for these big added risks with superior returns to gold. That hasn’t happened so far in 2017, which is why gold stocks are so widely despised today.
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Saturday, August 12, 2017
Will the Death of Diesel Cars Ruin Platinum? / Commodities / Platinum
The gloomy future of the diesel vehicles is commonly known. However, what does it really mean? And how could the demise of diesel technology impact the precious metals market?
The 1970s oil crisis and accelerating inflation made diesel-powered cars popular, especially in Europe where gasoline prices were always higher than in the U.S. The new technology was considered as more efficient and less polluting, as diesel cars produce less carbon dioxide than gasoline cars (thanks to better mileage). Hence, policy makers started to support diesel and the market share of diesel cars went from 14 percent in 1990 to 50 percent in 2016, as the chart below shows.
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Friday, August 11, 2017
Gold to Silver Ratio: Turning Lower / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Gold to Silver ratio looks to have ended cycle from 7/4/2016 low (64.38) and should turn lower at least in 3 waves to correct cycle from 7/4/2016 low. The video below explains what the expected turn lower in the ratio means to Gold and Silver:
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Friday, August 11, 2017
Silver Boom Time? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Previously, I have shown how conditions in the financial markets are very similar to that of the early 80s (circa 1983). Basically, the Dow was at a start of a long-term rally around 1983, and silver just broke down and entered a long-term bear market.
However, as I have predicted in that article, we would likely see a divergence, despite the similar conditions. Normally, when such a divergence occurs, then one gets a massive move in an opposite direction to the pattern or period compared to.
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Friday, August 11, 2017
Crude Oil Price Precious Metals Link in August / Commodities / Crude Oil
In the previous month crude oil gained almost 9% as declines in crude oil, gasoline and distillates inventories continued to support the price of the commodity. In that environment light crude climbed above the psychologically important barrier of $50 and closed July above it. Despite this bullish development, the price of the black gold slipped below it at the beginning of August. Is this just a bigger pullback or the first sign of a longer correction? Is it possible that the oil-to-gold and oil-to-silver ratios give us more clues about crude oil future moves?
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Friday, August 11, 2017
Former Lehman Brothers Trader: Unpredictable Government Actions Make It Smart to Hold Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Shannara Johnson : What does a hot-shot Wall Street trader see in physical gold? And why would he be adamant about holding it?
Jared Dillian, former head of ETF Trading at Lehman Brothers, is an acclaimed financial author and investment strategist at Mauldin Economics. He first discovered gold in 2005 when the launch of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) drew his attention to the yellow metal.
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Friday, August 11, 2017
Gold Up 2.3%, Silver 5.3% In Week – Gundlach, Gartman and Dalio Positive On Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
– Gold is up 2.3% this week and silver has surged nearly 5.3% as stocks sell off on geopolitical risk
– Billionaire fund managers and commodities experts increasingly positive on gold
– Risks are rising, and everybody should put 5% to 10% of their assets in gold – Dalio
– Dalio’s Bridgewater, world’s largest hedge fund, warned clients that geopolitical risks are rising
Wednesday, August 09, 2017
Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
– Gold climbs amid rising risk on US and North Korea
– Trump threatened North Korea with ‘fire and fury like the world has never seen’
– North Korea says prepared to strike the US territory of Guam
– North Korea said US exercise ‘proves that the U.S. imperialists are nuclear war maniacs’
– Heated rhetoric likely to support gold for rest of the week
Tuesday, August 08, 2017
Crude Oil Price Important Levels to Watch / Commodities / Crude Oil
On Friday, light crude moved higher and gained 1.12%, which resulted in a comeback above the previously-broken 200-day moving average. Is it enough to encourage oil bulls to act in the coming week?
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Tuesday, August 08, 2017
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Tuesday, August 08, 2017
Is Pot Replacing Alcohol? It’s a Money Making Business / Commodities / Cannabis
Pot is what alcohol used to be.It’s an industry ready to take off, but one that’s still finding its way, and one whose progress is not exactly encouraged by the federal government. It’s a little bit like Prohibition 2.0.
The alcohol industry – now eight decades after states ratified the 21st amendment and ended prohibition – generated $475 billion in economic activity and $110 billion in wages in 2014.
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Monday, August 07, 2017
Solar, Bubble, Banks, War, and Legal Tender: Five Reasons Why You Should Buy Silver Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Shannara Johnson : Unlike its big brother, gold, physical silver is coveted for both investment purposes and industrial usage. Right now, silver prices are in a bit of a slump—in other words, it’s the perfect time to load up on this precious metal while it’s down. Here are some good reasons why silver should be on every investor’s radar.
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Monday, August 07, 2017
Gold Price Broke A Bullish Trend Line / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
XAUUSD recently broke below the bullish support trend line at 1264 on its 4-hour chart, indicating that a short term top had been formed and correction pullback could be seen in the coming days.
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Monday, August 07, 2017
Gold and Silver : The Battle for Control / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
There was some important price action in the Precious Metals Complex this past week as both gold and silver each tested important overhead resistance again. Always keep in mind that time is relative when it comes to the size of big patterns vs smaller patterns. When a multi year trendline is in place the breaking out and backtesting process can seem like it takes forever before you see some type of resolution to the pattern or trendline which has been the case with gold and silver recently.
Lets start with the long term weekly chart for gold we’ve been following for a long time now which shows its 2011 bear market downtrend channel. Almost exactly one year ago this month gold touched the top rail of its 2011 bear market downtrend channel at 1305 which held resistance. After a small decline gold once again rallied back up to the top rail of the 2011 bear market downtrend channel and failed once again. After another small decline gold has rallied back up to the top rail of the 2011 bear market downtrend channel which now comes in around the 1280 area.
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Monday, August 07, 2017
Precious Metals Sector is on Major Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the past week in gold and silver.
Monday, August 07, 2017
Get Ready for an Historic Upside Gold and Silver Run / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
The Bigger the Base, the Greater the Upside Case. This saying among technical analysts/chartists helps define where we are today in the precious metals – and where we’ll soon be headed.
It means that when prices “base” in a relatively narrow sideways range for an extended period, they will at some point break out. Before the action gets underway, bears and bulls alike will get “sandpapered” as they take positions, trying to guess whether or not the price is getting ready to decline further or move upward into a new bull phase.
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Sunday, August 06, 2017
Predicting The Price Of Gold Is A Fool’s Game / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
It is frustrating at times to see the attention focused on predictions for the price of gold. The more sensational and spectacular the price forecast, the greater the cacophony.
It is worth taking a look back at a few of these predictions to help put things in perspective.
HEADLINE: Gold Forecast $6000, And Gold Mining Analysis Through Visualisation 23Jan2012
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