Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, May 04, 2018
Gold Hit by USDX Squeeze / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold was enjoying a solid spring rally until a couple weeks ago, nearing major upside breakouts. But its nice advance has crumbled since, really weighing on sentiment. Gold fell victim to a rare major short squeeze in US Dollar Index futures. The surging USDX motivated gold-futures speculators to flee rather aggressively. But this will likely prove a short-lived anomaly, after which gold’s assault on highs will recommence.
Gold’s seasonally-atypical weakness over the past couple weeks is very important for speculators and investors to understand. It had nothing at all to do with fundamentals, but was completely driven by the hyper-leveraged gold-futures traders. These guys have long been fixated on the US dollar’s fortunes, looking to its benchmark US Dollar Index for trading cues. That can slave gold’s price to the dollar at times.
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Friday, May 04, 2018
Macro Changes for Gold and Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
Since early 2016 we have been carrying forward a theme illustrating that until the macro trends in place since 2011 change, the situation would be as is, stocks trending up and the precious metals in consolidation/correction. The current trends were kicked off symbolically, and functionally to a degree, by the Fed’s concoction of Operation Twist, a plan with the expressed goal of manipulating the macro (or in the Fed’s word, “sanitizing” inflation signals). Until this year it has been the gift that keeps on giving to unquestioningly bullish stock market participants.
Friday, May 04, 2018
US Dollar Cycle Rotation To Boost Oil & Other Commodities / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our recent analysis of the US Dollar has presented a very unique and interesting setup for traders – an opportunity for a general commodity rally with Oil leading the way.
Taking a look at this Daily chart of the UUP (US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) with our Advanced Dynamic Learning Cycles price modeling system applied to it, we can see that the cycle analysis is predicting a rotational top in the US Dollar over the next 2~5+ trading days before a new bearish price trend pushes this US Dollar fund back to below the $24 level. We have highlighted the Resistance Zone in red and we believe this rotating top will play out fairly quickly as an excellent opportunity for traders.
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Friday, May 04, 2018
Platinum Price Cycles Predict Big Upside Move / Commodities / Platinum
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I wanted to take a moment to alert everyone to a price cycle setup that may turn out to be one of the most dramatic price moves we've seen since 2008. The metals markets have recently made some news by breaking to new recent price highs. This price move prompted a number of major firms to announce new bullish directional forecasts for gold with predictions of $2500 to $3000 price levels in the near future. These future price predictions led me to consider what it would take for metals to rally more than 30% from current levels – and the answer became clear to me.
Thursday, May 03, 2018
A Long Term Gold Very Unpopular View / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
Since roughly the middle of January of this year we’ve seen some big changes in character taking place in many different areas of the markets. After nearly two years of low volatility, which is much easier to take, volatility has come back with a vengeance and doesn’t seem to be slowing down much. Its been most obvious in the stock markets, but now the US dollar’s volatility has spiked which may be suggesting something is in the wind. What that something is can be anyone’s guess, but something changed in mid January of this year.
Tonight I would like to show you some old long term charts I built out four years or so ago after the top in the PM complex was established. Some of the longer term subscribers will remember them as they had a long term bearish tone to them if they played out. It’s been a long time since I posted some of these charts because for the last several years nothing much has changed which maybe coming to an end.
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Thursday, May 03, 2018
The Case for Gold in the Era of Financial Virtual Reality / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Michael_J_Kosares
On the holodeck the markets are telling us something but we know not what
"John Locke, the British philosopher whose ideas fuelled the American Revolution, had a theory of knowledge and perception, which I always found annoying. Asked if we have an idea of the substance behind our perceptions, he said we had 'no such clear idea at all, and therefore signify nothing by the word substance but only an uncertain supposition of we know not what'. The philosophical debate has moved on in the centuries since Locke wrote. But his idea captures well the uneasy state of the world's financial markets. They are driven in the short run by perceptions, not reality. If many have the wrong impression, markets will move on that. But in the long run, markets move on matters of substance. And at present the economic substance is a 'something we know not what.'" - John Authers, Financial Times
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Wednesday, May 02, 2018
Precious Metals Sector On a Long-term Buy Signal, Short term Mixed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan updates his gold and silver charts.
Our proprietary cycle indicator is up.
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Wednesday, May 02, 2018
The Coming Silver Supply Crunch Is Worse Than You Know / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldSilver
Jeff Clark : For data wonks like me, the annual Yearbooks from various gold and silver consultancies make for fun reading. You can always find little gems about what’s going on in the markets, and sometimes you can spot changes in trends early on. Seeing a compelling chart, especially one that’s not been widely reported, is almost as exciting as seeing my wife in a short skirt on date night.
Well, I’ve got a series of charts for you that point to a silver trend that is so entrenched in its development, so inevitable in its outcome, so inescapable in its consequences that it comes as close as one can get to a guarantee. And once fully underway, it will have major implications for the silver price, along with the availability of investment metal.
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Tuesday, May 01, 2018
What Can Alchemists Say About Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Alchemists are precious metals experts, aren’t they? So let’s see what we can learn from the latest issue of the Alchemist, the LBMA’s quarterly journal.
Silver Linings
Silver has been always in gold’s shadow. Could the accelerated and synchronized global growth finally boost silver? In his article, Jonathan Butler offers two arguments in favor of higher silver prices. First, in a world of synchronized growth, silver should outperform gold, as it has a much larger industrial base. In particular, the solar sector and vehicle electrification are very promising areas for silver demand. Second, silver seems to be undervalued. Historically, one needs 58 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold, but now it would take around 80 ounces.
Tuesday, May 01, 2018
The Least Known and Best Performing Precious Metal / Commodities / Palladium
By: MoneyMetals
Gold and silver have risen substantially off the price bottom put in just 2-½ years ago, but the gains have yet to attract much notice. Gold has gained roughly 28% and silver is up 20%.
Meanwhile, another metal has more than doubled since bottoming. This performance should have been more than enough to catch the attention of metals investors, if only they were watching. The metal is palladium and, for those who haven’t paid much attention, it is time for a brief update.
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Tuesday, May 01, 2018
A Gold Sector Fundamental View / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
With gold testing its 200 day moving average this morning I thought I’d reproduce the first part of the precious metals segment from week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 497), including a daily chart of gold at the end showing the anticipated SMA 200 test.
[edit] Steve Saville updates gold’s ‘true fundamentals’ here. Notice at the end what is not considered fundamentally material.
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Monday, April 30, 2018
Silver Tiny Volume Signal, Big Price Implications / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The USD Index reversed in a quite clear way on Friday and gold rallied. It looked like a great bullish combination for the precious metals sector, but was it really one? Gold moved higher on volume that was lowest since the beginning of the year and this means that Friday’s rally shouldn’t be taken at its face value, but instead it should be closely inspected. Moreover, silver just did what was previously followed by big and volatile price moves in all recent cases. What can we really infer from it?
Monday, April 30, 2018
Is Jeff Gundlach Correct on Gold’s $1000 Upside? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
It was music to gold bug ears.
We’ve all heard the seemingly shocking or outrageous price targets for Gold. So it’s not new.
But this time from a non gold pusher. Someone with credibility in the larger financial world and a track record to boot.
Gundlach’s comment was included in every piece of Gold literature that recently crossed my desk. No doubt, if Gold starts breaking to the upside, Gundlach’s quote will be used by aggressive marketers and publishers. But I digress.
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Monday, April 30, 2018
Gold And Interest Rates – There Is No Correlation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Kelsey_Williams
Over and over again, the following statement or something similar continues to find its way into commentary about gold:
“…prospects of higher US interest rates have the ability to limit upside gains. It must be kept in mind that Gold is a zero-yielding asset that tends to lose its allure in a high-interest rate environment”
A variation of that statement:
“Because gold doesn’t bear interest, it struggles to compete when interest rates rise.”
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Monday, April 30, 2018
Precious Metals and Mining Stock Chart Paints A Clear Picture / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this article, we are going to explain and show you an interesting pattern that has been slowly forming over the past year in the precious metals sector. This pattern along with our analysis point to a significant rally to start in the next 4 months for gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and miners.
Before we get into the details, below, it is important for every trader to step back and look at the bigger picture. It’s way too easy to get sucked into the markets movements, become an emotional trader, start losing a few trades, and second-guessing your open positions.
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Monday, April 30, 2018
Silver Price Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Austin_Galt
Latest Price – $16.47
Pattern – price looks to have been in a corrective pattern ever since the impulsive move up off the December 2015 low culminating in the July 2016 high. I expect this corrective phase is in its very final stages.
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Saturday, April 28, 2018
Marc Faber: Countries Unwise to Let Antagonistic U.S. Hold Their Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to be joined by a man who needs little introduction, Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report. Dr. Faber has been a long-time guest on financial shows throughout the world, and is a well-known Austrian economist and investment advisor, and it's a tremendous honor to have him on with us today.
Dr. Faber, thanks so much for joining us again, and, how are you?
Marc Faber: Well, it's my pleasure to be on your show. Thank you.
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Saturday, April 28, 2018
Gold Stocks Seasonal Bull Spring Rally 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have mostly been consolidating low this year, exacerbating bearish sentiment. Even with gold grinding higher in a solid uptrend and nearing a major upside breakout, the gold stocks just can’t get any love. But that may be about to change, with gold and its miners’ stocks in the midst of their spring rally. Strong seasonal tailwinds make May one of the best months of the year in gold-stock bulls.
Gold-stock performance is highly seasonal, which certainly sounds odd. The gold miners produce and sell their metal at relatively-constant rates year-round, so the temporal journey through calendar months should be irrelevant. Based on these miners’ revenues, there’s little reason investors should favor them more at certain times of the year than others. Yet history proves that’s exactly what happens in this sector.
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Friday, April 27, 2018
Gold: Pricing vs. Value and Fundamental Look on Technicals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold behaves like a currency. This has extremely important consequence: gold cannot be valued like assets which generate cash flows or even as commodities whose value can be at least estimated looking at the balance of demand and supply. Does it mean that gold is a mere speculation play? No! You have to remember that gold belongs to the currencies. As they have no cash flows, they cannot be valued, but they can be priced against other currencies.
The same applies to gold. It has no “true” which value we can estimate and to which it should converge. On the contrary, the price is the only real number we have and can act on. We see lot analysts who try to estimate the value of gold based on some links – which are allegedly set in stone – between the price of gold and the money supply or the level of the federal debt. And they estimate the “fair” value of gold at either $500 or $20,000. It’s a pure nonsense.
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Thursday, April 26, 2018
A New Lithium War Is About To Begin, Modern Gold Rush! / Commodities / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
It’s the modern gold rush. Around the world, the most sought-after mineral isn’t a precious metal, nor is it oil and gas…it’s lithium.
Lithium, or “white petroleum” as some call it, has become a crucial element in today’s high-tech economy.
Demand for lithium is soaring, and producers are frantically searching for new sources of supply. Prices have doubled in the last two years, rising as high as $16,500 per ton.
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