Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, December 09, 2018
Gold Stocks Acting as they Should During Market Stress / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
The macro has moved through a time of moderately rising inflationary concerns when economies were cycling up, many commodities were firm and risk was ‘on’. Contrary to the views of inflation-oriented gold bugs, that was not the time to buy gold stocks.
As I have belabored again and again, the right time is when the inflation view is on the outs, gold is rising vs. stock markets, the economy is in question, risks of a steepening yield curve take center stage (the flattening is so mature now that steepening will be a clear and present risk moving forward) and by extension of all of those conditions, confidence declines.
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Sunday, December 09, 2018
Palladium Shortages Expose Broken Futures Markets for Precious Metals / Commodities / Palladium
By: MoneyMetals
Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report joins me for a fascinating conversation you will not want to miss. Craig tells me why we all need to pay attention to the white-hot palladium market right now and discusses the massive physical supply shortages there that have a chance to actually break the trading exchanges. He also suggests 2019 is poised to be the best year for gold and silver in nearly a decade. So make sure you stick around for my interview with Craig Hemke, coming up after this week’s market update.
Well, it’s been a wild few days in the markets for stocks, commodities, and precious metals....
In spite of the trading week being shortened by a national day of mourning for former President George H.W. Bush, the S&P 500 experienced one of its widest weekly trading ranges of the year. Prices swung 5% from high to low, with most of that being recorded on the downside. The stock market did manage to avert a major technical breakdown Thursday, closing well above its low point.
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Sunday, December 09, 2018
Is an Inverted Yield Curve Bullish for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
In recent days we’ve seen the beginnings of an inversion in the yield curve.
The 2-year yield and the 5-year yield have inverted but not yet the the 2-year yield and the 10-year yield, the curve that is watched most. However, “2s and 10s” as bond traders would say appear headed for an inversion very soon.
We know that an inversion of the yield curve precedes a recession and bear market. That is good for Gold. But timing is important and the key word is precedes.
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Saturday, December 08, 2018
Stocks Selloff Boosting Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The recent stock-market selloff is persisting, fueling mounting worries among investors. The intensifying volatility and lack of a quick rebound higher is strangling euphoric sentiment, spawning self-reinforcing selling pressure. Scoffed at a few months ago, the notions that a young bear market is underway and a recession looms are gaining traction. The great beneficiary of this ominous stock-market downturn will be gold.
Gold has always been an essential asset class for prudently diversifying investment portfolios. Uniquely it tends to rally when stock markets weaken, offsetting some of the losses in typical stock-heavy portfolios. Gold acts like portfolio insurance, usually soaring when stock markets plunge on unforeseen news. All throughout history, wise investors have recommended everyone have 5% to 10% of their portfolios in gold.
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Friday, December 07, 2018
Will Weak US Dollar Save Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Trade wars and lax fiscal policy are negative for the US dollar and positive for gold. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about the effects of Trump’s actions on the greenback and find out whether weak dollar will save gold.
Let’s look at the chart below. As one can see, the greenback has been in a bull market since February 2018. Yup, the chart does not lie. The US Congress widened the fiscal deficit, while President Trump engaged in trade disputes. But despite these disturbing developments for long-run economic health, the broad trade weighted US dollar index increased from 115 to almost 130 now. But why – shouldn’t it decline?
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Friday, December 07, 2018
4 Commodities With Big Potential Ripe for Opportunity -- NOW / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Trading commodities is tough business: It's hard enough to spot a good setup, harder still to time pulling the trigger.
Our friends at Elliott Wave International understand this reality -- so, they've put together a free resource for you: They call it, "4 Commodities Ripe for Opportunity -- NOW."
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 07, 2018
Gold and Palladium Shake Hands / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The price of palladium just exceeded the price of gold for the first time in 16 years. That’s an epic even. But what does it really mean? And why should gold, silver, and mining stock investors care about the small palladium market?
In short, because this development can tell us something about the future performance of the PM sector in general.
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Friday, December 07, 2018
These Oil Stocks Are a Ticking Time Bomb / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
I don’t blame you.The yields on energy master limited partnerships (MLPs) are very tempting.
If you’re not sure what these are, energy MLPs are companies that own the pipelines that transport oil and natural gas around the US.
And they often pay huge dividend yields. The top five oil MLPs have an average dividend yield of 5.3%. That’s more than twice the S&P 500 dividend yield of 1.9%.
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Thursday, December 06, 2018
Palladium Market Panic Buying - What Comes Next? / Commodities / Palladium
By: MoneyMetals
This week, a white metal reached a rare feat. Palladium has traded at a higher cost per ounce than gold.
Last month, the palladium market pushed through all remaining technical barriers by posting a new all-time high. A chronic supply deficit now threatens to launch palladium prices into a super spike.
A true shortage of physical metal may be at hand. The primary source of demand is automakers who require palladium for catalytic converters. Supply, meanwhile, comes primarily (more than 80%) from just two unreliable countries: Russia and South Africa.
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Thursday, December 06, 2018
When Lights Go Off, What Does Gold Do? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Powell has recently came up with the metaphor of wandering in the darkness. Will golden sunshine brighten the dark?
I Am the Fed Chair and I Know Nothing
On November 14th, Powell discussed global perspectives in Dallas Fed with its President, Robert Kaplan. He characterized the Fed’s stance, providing an interesting analogy:
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Tuesday, December 04, 2018
Trump and Powell More Dovish. Will Gold Fly Away? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
President Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed to halt escalation in their trade conflict. At the same time, the Fed officials became more cautious about the pace of future interest rate hikes. How will the softening of the US trade and monetary policies affect the gold market?
Trade Truce and Gold
Have you heard about the Christmas truce? It was a series of unofficial ceasefires across the Western Front during World War I around Christmas Day in 1914. In that time, men from both sides emerged from the trenches and met in No Man’s Land to exchange gifts, take photos, sing carols and play football. Really. We were also moved. It shows that there might be a moment of peace even during a dreadful war.
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Tuesday, December 04, 2018
The Saudi Dilemma: To Cut Or Not To Cut / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
To cut and push up prices or not to cut and preserve market share, this is the question that Saudi Arabia is facing ahead of this year’s December OPEC meeting. It seems like just yesterday when OPEC met in 2016 and decided to cut production by 1.8 million barrels daily, including from Russia, to reverse the free fall of oil prices. At the time, it worked because everyone was desperate. Now, many OPEC members are both desperate while not yet recovered from the 2014 blow. Saudi Arabia is not an exception.
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Tuesday, December 04, 2018
Golds Xmas Gift / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: readtheticker
Three things have tweaked the fundamentals for gold.
1) Bitcoin is not attracting the hot cash, unlike 2016.
2) Fed's Powell dovish switch, now less expectations for interest rate hikes in 2019.
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Monday, December 03, 2018
4 Commodities Ripe for Opportunity -- NOW / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Trading commodities is tough business: It's hard enough to spot a good setup, harder still to time pulling the trigger.
Our friends at Elliott Wave International understand this reality -- so, they've put together a free resource for you: They call it, "4 Commodities Ripe for Opportunity -- NOW."
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 03, 2018
Will 2019 Bring a Free and Fair Gold & Silver Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
JPMorgan Chase and a number of other bullion banks are in a whole lot of trouble. Evidence detailing years of rigging markets and swindling clients is piling up.Deutsche Bank pleaded guilty two years ago and forked over hundreds of thousands of documents. John Edmonds, a former JPMorgan trader, entered his own guilty plea last month and turned state’s evidence.
The carefully cultivated system of captured regulators may not help the banks this time.
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Monday, December 03, 2018
The Bottled Water Bamboozle / Commodities / Water Sector
By: Richard_Mills
Bottled water is now the most consumed drink sold in a plastic bottle in the United States. The fact that North Americans don’t think twice about paying up to $5 for a bottle of H2O has allowed Nestle Waters - the largest bottled water company in the world - to sell $7.4 billion worth in 2016, and that was just for water, one of dozens of products from chocolate to baby food marketed by the Swiss food and beverage conglomerate.
Perhaps if Canadians and Americans knew what drilling for water, pumping it to the surface, and piping it to a bottling plant was doing to the world’s groundwater supplies, not to mention the world’s oceans where a lot of the plastic ends up, they would switch to the tap. Incidentally, tap water costs Canadians on the order of tenths of a cent per liter.
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Monday, December 03, 2018
Crude Oil After November’s Declines / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
November was the worst month for oil bulls since July 2016. Over the past few weeks, the price of black gold has dived deeply, sometimes dropping even under the barrier of $50. What impact did this price action have on the long-, medium- and short-term picture of the commodity?
Let's start today’s alert with the long-term chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Saturday, December 01, 2018
Junior Gold Stocks Q3’18 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The junior gold miners’ stocks have spent recent months mostly languishing near major multi-year lows. That spawned a sentiment wasteland riddled by bearishness and bereft of bids. But these companies’ battered stock prices aren’t fundamentally righteous, as proven yet again by their latest earnings season. Faring far better in a challenging third quarter than stock prices imply, they need to mean revert way higher.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 40 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements at 45 days. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
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Friday, November 30, 2018
Gold Fundamentals Improving but Not Bullish Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Recent market and economic developments are positive for Gold and precious metals but conditions are not bullish yet.
Bullish conditions and bullish fundamentals would be highlighted by a shift in Fed policy. They aren’t shifting yet. They are slowing, which precedes a shift.
From a market standpoint, we need to see strength in Gold in real terms (against stocks and foreign currencies) and a steepening of the yield curve. These developments along with shifting Fed policy will tell us a new bull market is soon to begin.
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Friday, November 30, 2018
What the Oil Short-sellers and OPEC Don’t Know about Peak Shale / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
A Black Swan is when something dramatic happens that most people did not expect, like when house prices went down, not up...remember that?
Last week on Bloomberg News, Javier Blas wrote of a new “Shale Boom” that could...create “OPEC’s Worst Nightmare”. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-21/opec-s-worst-nightmare-the-permian-is-about-to-pump-a-lot-more
That sentiment reflects a broad consensus of opinion that has driven oil prices down 30% in two months. The central theme of the article was that the spike in year-on-year change of U.S. production of “oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids”, to 3.0 million barrels per day (MBPD) in August 2018, was proof of shale-oil’s continuing resurgence.
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