Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
The Mysterious Case of the Commodity Conundrum, Securitization of Commodities, and Systemic Concerns (Part 3) / Commodities / Derivatives
By: Mack_Frankfurter
Part 1 , Part 2
"The theories which I have expressed there, and which appear to you to be so chimerical, are really extremely practical—so practical that I depend upon them for my bread and cheese." — Sherlock Holmes, A Study in Scarlet (1888)
The mysterious case of the commodity conundrum is sure to elicit passionate debate on either side of the equation—is the commodity boom due to speculation or fundamentals? By the time you read this, a battle in this dispute will have taken place on April 22, 2008 with the CFTC roundtable on agricultural markets.
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Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Natural Gas ETF Points to Down Trend / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Yesterday's up-gap spike to new highs above 55.00 in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (AMEX: UNG) followed by a close near the low of the session, which then was followed by a gap down opening this morning and a plunge to the 52.00 area, not only satisfied a multi-month upside swing target off of the Sept-Dec '07 base formation but it also left behind (for now) an exhaustion Island Reversal at the very top of the advance. Usually, such an exhaustion signal identifies a significant price peak and a near-term reversal in trend direction. Such is the case in the UNG, which now points lower towards 50.00 next, on the way to 48.00 thereafter.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Invest in Silver or Silver Stocks? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Bob_Kirtley
In May 2006 silver spiked at fifteen dollars and the HUI Index also spiked at 400, today we have silver trading at seventeen dollars, having been as high as twenty dollars, and the HUI Index stands at 406!
This raises the question of whether it is better to invest in the metal itself or to invest in silver stocks?
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Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Gold Follows Oil and Euro Lower Ahead of FOMC Meeting / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL GOLD fell back in Asian and early London trade on Tuesday, undoing Monday's 1.1% gain as crude oil fell, stock markets were mixed, and government bonds ticked higher after the worst two weeks for US Treasuries since 1982."Everybody is waiting for the Fed," notes Ronald Leung of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong . "I think Gold has to stay above these levels before it can charge higher again.
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Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Can You Profit From The Rice Shortage? / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: George_Kleinman
How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?--Alan Greenspan, 1996
Rice was in the limelight this past week. Costco and Sam's Club limited the amount of rice customers could buy because of the irrational exuberance of its rice customers. The rice chart below (this is a fairly thin market that's not too actively traded in the futures) looks like an accelerated rocket ride to the moon. Historically, these kinds of moves always seem to end poorly.
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Monday, April 28, 2008
Gold and Commodities Ongoing Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Aden_Forecast
The year is still young, yet it's seen many commodities soar. From the precious metals, to the base metals, like copper and tin, to raw materials, to energy, like oil and natural gas, to the soft commodities, like corn and wheat... the commodity bull market has been flexing its muscles.
In the first quarter alone, gold was up 10%, silver gained even more, near 17%, and copper surged 25%. This is in stark contrast to the stock market as the Dow Industrials lost 6% during this time.
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Monday, April 28, 2008
Not Enough Silver to Satisfy Portfolio Diversification? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Morgan
In my article “Silver is too bulky,” we examined a hypothetical look at the average baby boomer placing ten percent of their net worth into the precious metals, split 50/50 gold and silver. At the time, silver was trading over $15 per troy ounce. Since publishing that article silver has traded over $21 and is now trading between $17 and $18.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2008
Gold and China's Coming Flood of Wealth / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
I have just returned from a 10-day trip to Southern China and Hong Kong. While I was there, I explored the Chinese attitude toward gold. If their demand for gold equaled that of other nation's average individual holdings, then we would see their demand well into four figures. I wanted to know if the Chinese would really move towards gold in their portfolios.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2008
Gold Strengthens Ahead of US Fed Interest Rate Cut Decision / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL GOLD rose 0.9% during Asian and early London trade Monday, recovering Friday's drop as world equity and commodity indexes ticked some 0.5% higher.Rice and wheat futures rose, while Japanese bond yields continued to sell off after Friday's CPI report showed the highest rate of inflation in ten years.
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Monday, April 28, 2008
Gold's March Through $1000 Halted by Feds Creative Policy Towards Creating Liquidity / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“The rally in gold since December was almost entirely speculative, flight to quality and dollar hedging that will unwind very quickly when conditions change. If a reversal in the dollar has indeed begun, oil will move lower, but not as much as gold. Gold has now defined a clear range and taking any large positions while inside that range is no better than gambling. In the 900-955 area both counts are still valid, which suggests playing the break of the range in whichever direction.” ~ Precious Points: G.O.L.D. (Gold, Oil, Dollar, Libor ), April 20, 2008Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Crude OIl Hits $119- Ways to Profit From Peak Oil / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: Martin_Hutchinson
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said a few months ago that if the United States invades Iran , we could expect to see oil at $200 a barrel. With oil already approaching the $120 mark, we may get there even without invading Iran.
[Perhaps President Chavez could be tempted out of his chaos-causing rule in Caracas with the offer of a rich and perk-filled oil-analyst's job at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ( GS )].
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Sunday, April 27, 2008
Gold Threatens Break of $870 to Trigger Long-term Bear Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
That was another week we could have done without. Gold and gold stocks seem to be sitting on top of support levels. This next week just might be a very interesting week as far as telling us if the downside continues or if we may see a rise.
GOLD : LONG TERM
The long term P&F chart, shown in these commentaries a few weeks back, has now come back to the $885 level, where it rallied from earlier. However, a further drop to $870 will break below its up trend line and two previous lows to give us a long term BEAR signal. Should that happen the previous projections would become operative with an initial move to $840 and then on to $660. This new move, should it occur, would provide a further projection to $600, so we have potential projections all over the place, and all of them would be P&F valid IF gold should drop to the $870 level (based upon the June 2008 futures contract). Sounds ominous but let's see what the normal charts and indicators are telling us.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Global Food Crisis Investing Special / Commodities / Food Crisis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The food riots across the world illustrate the degree to which the world is seeing a shift from cheap food to the early stages of a mega trend in the agricultural sectors that is set to continue for many years. This impact is not just limited to the developing world but people in the developed world have seen their food costs soar by as much as 50% over the last 12months. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Silver and Gold at Critical Juncture / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
First let me say the email response to my previous article "The Death of Gold?" was unanimous - everyone disagreed with me. Whether that is a contrarian sell signal I do not know. I hope to follow up that article but since I mainly write about silver, allow me a few comments on the silver situation. The chart below sums it up I think - we are at a critical juncture for silver. Indeed the situation is so precarious; a resolution either way may already be underway by the time you read this article. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Gold and Silver Fall Out of Favor / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Morgan
It seems many once notable gold and silver bugs have abandoned the precious for what? In these uncertain financial times selling precious metals may look wise in the short term but what investment class is doing better? It appears the U.S. dollar is going to swim against the main downward forces and stage a counter trend rally through perhaps the summer and that may just be the opportunity that savvy precious metals investors are looking for to accumulate.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 25, 2008
Should Gold Investors Worry on Dip Below $900 on Dollar Strength? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Andy_Sutton
When in doubt….Fundamentals - There appears to be a need for reassurance right now. A three-day rally in the Dollar has sent Gold below $900/oz. and Silver below $17/oz. There are whispers of currency market intervention, gold market intervention and talk of a Dollar rally. Rest assured, any rally will be a countertrend rally, most likely brief, and mean almost nothing in the grand scheme of things. Ironically, history suggests that the Dollar will rally, based on the unavoidable fact that we are now in a recession. I believe that history will rhyme, but not repeat. The fundamentals to support a sustained Dollar rally simply are not there. Moreover at a fundamental level, nothing has changed. Let's review the major themes and check our scorecard. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 25, 2008
Crude Oil Bull Market is Sustainable Due to Supply Fundamentals / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Zeal_LLC
Crude oil is one of the hottest commodities on the planet these days. Almost without respite, it has surged 16% in April alone! It closed at new all-time record highs on 8 of the past 11 trading days. Pushing $120 per barrel now, the fabled $100 price point that the markets feared for so many years now seems modest.
Commodities bulls have been long oil and oil stocks for many years now, so oil's strength isn't too surprising. Naturally we attribute its powerful advance to a global supply and demand imbalance. Oil demand is simply growing a lot faster than oil supply, so higher prices are the only way to retard demand and accelerate production until a new equilibrium price is reached.
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Friday, April 25, 2008
US Hot Dry Summer Forecast Bullish for Energy and Agricultural Investments / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Joseph_Dancy
Several of the sectors we are invested in are extremely weather dependent. The fortunes of the firms in these sectors will hinge to some extent on weather conditions 3-6 months in the future. Firms operating in the agriculture sector are the obvious ones that will be impacted by weather conditions. Less obvious is the impact weather has on the natural gas sector. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 25, 2008
Gold Falls to Test Strong Support at $875 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down $19.40 to $886.80 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was down 50 cents to $16.66 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $883.50, £446.51 and €566.38 (from $900.75 £455.85 and €572.09 yesterday).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 25, 2008
Crude Oil Heading for $134 During 2008 Despite Near-term Weakness / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Thursday's downward trading of oil brought some relief to the equity markets. Don't expect the decline to last. Technical models are indicating short-term downward pressure until the end of April. As May unfolds, increasing upward pressure should return. The first level of support is at $110 followed by solid support at $100. Read full article... Read full article...