Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, May 05, 2008
Factors In Defense of Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Frank_Holmes
The price of gold has corrected by close to 20 percent since peaking on March 17. If you have been listening to the popular press and business TV, you may be convinced that the gold and commodity “bubbles” have popped.
Once you back away from the day-to-day noise and put things into perspective, we believe this correction in gold, while painful in the short term, is just another pause in a long-term secular bull market. As it has been said, bull markets climb a wall of worry.
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Sunday, May 04, 2008
Gold Severe Downtrend to Possibly Towards $660 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Up, down, up, down, up but in the end the downs have it. For every $5 to $8 that gold goes up it goes down by $20. That's not the way to new highs. For now it looks like the down side is the direction of least resistance but for how long?
GOLD : LONG TERM
With the confirmation of a long term P&F bear market in progress this is what the long term P&F chart looks like now. The two previous lows were breached earlier at the $900 level and the up trend line was finally breached at the $870 level on Wednesday.
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Perhaps 60% of today's Crude Oil Price is Pure Speculation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: F_William_Engdahl
The price of crude oil today is not made according to any traditional relation of supply to demand. It's controlled by an elaborate financial market system as well as by the four major Anglo-American oil companies. As much as 60% of today's crude oil price is pure speculation driven by large trader banks and hedge funds. It has nothing to do with the convenient myths of Peak Oil. It has to do with control of oil and its price. How?
First, the crucial role of the international oil exchanges in London and New York is crucial to the game. Nymex in New York and the ICE Futures in London today control global benchmark oil prices which in turn set most of the freely traded oil cargo. They do so via oil futures contracts on two grades of crude oil—West Texas Intermediate and North Sea Brent.
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Friday, May 02, 2008
Junior Precious Metals Mining Companies Risk / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: David_Morgan
Dear David,
Thank you very much for your hard work and excellent research. Your level approach to the metals has long been a beacon to follow.
Thank you.
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Friday, May 02, 2008
Junior Gold Mining Stocks in the Midst of Fear Driven Sentiment Storm / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Zeal_LLC
While recent activity in the gold stock sector has caused many of its battle-hardened investors to capitulate, the tried and true speculators still holding strong in the junior-gold-stock realm are feeling beaten and bloodied.
As a speculator in junior gold stocks I have not been immune to the carnage in this small sector either. And it's not difficult to hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth. The juniors are in the midst of a fear-driven sentiment storm that is fierce and unforgiving.
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Friday, May 02, 2008
The Death Of Gold and Lessons from History / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
A couple of weeks back I put out an article saying that "The Shoeshine Boy" principle may have flagged a major top in the gold market. The Times cover trumpeting gold was published one trading day before gold's $1030 top and is shown below.
Not surprisingly this generated a number of emails from gold bulls which with one exception disagreed to the point of employing four letter words you would not even use against alleged members of a gold cartel. Let me clarify one point, the use of the phrase "Death of Gold" was a play on the phrase "Death of Equities" though some readers thought this meant gold going back to $300 for the next 20 years.
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Friday, May 02, 2008
Gold Holds Above Four Month Lows Against Increasingly Bullish US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES ticked higher from a four-month low early Friday, adding 0.9% to $855.90 per ounce before giving back $3 in London as world stock markets rose sharply and bond yields fell.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 02, 2008
Precious Metals Tumble Ahead of Today's US Non-Farm Payrolls / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
The sharp sell off in the precious metal markets continued yesterday with gold down $13.80 to $848.90 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was down 38 cents to $16.12 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $854.25, £429.92 and €551.31 (from $863.50, £434.64 €556.74).Should there be a continuance of the recent trend of dollar strength and oil weakness today then we could see gold test the 200 day moving average at $823.
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Friday, May 02, 2008
Rice Prices Fall Sharply After Food Crisis Rally on Government Export Controls / Commodities / Food Crisis
By: Jason_Simpkins
The price of rice finally started to moderate this week, with rice futures sinking for a fifth straight day. Rice has retreated 11.6% on the Chicago Board of Trade since hitting an all-time high last Thursday.
But this decline is likely just the start for rice prices, which have been artificially inflated by government controls and may continue to plummet by as much as 20%.
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Friday, May 02, 2008
Gold Stocks- Time to Buy? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Brian_Bloom
From a trading perspective, the charts are showing that it might be “buying time” in gold shares.
Let's look at three relationships:
- The relationship of the speculative $HUI to the less speculative $XAU
- The relationship of the $HUI to the gold price
- The relationship of the $XAU to the gold price
Friday, May 02, 2008
Uranium Stocks Index Trend Still Bearish / Commodities / Uranium
By: Merv_Burak
I keep looking at the chart to see if there is something bright to write about but nothing, at least nothing of any real significance. There are some signs that things might be getting brighter but they would be signs mostly in my mind rather than anything concrete. I guess the most positive action one can grab on to is the fact that once the Index fell below that “box” that it was in for so long, that the Index hasn't yet dropped like a rock, as might have been expected. I'm hoping things do perk up soon because as long as things remain bearish readers start to lose interest and sooner or later I'll end up writing these commentaries only for myself.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 01, 2008
What's behind the Sharp Slide in Gold and Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gary_Dorsch
After watching the price of silver soar to as high as $15 /ounce in May 2006, Warren Buffet, the “Oracle of Omaha” offered some sagely words of wisdom. “What the wise man does at the beginning, the fool does at the end. At the start of the party, the punch is flowing and everything's going well, but you know at midnight, it's all going to turn into pumpkins and mice. People think they'll be able to get out just before midnight, but everyone else thinks that too. The problem is that, in commodities there are no clocks on the wall,” Buffet warned. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Bear Stearns Rescue Reversed Gold Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Christopher_Laird
Gold rallied a great deal, way beyond anything in recent years, as the 07 credit crisis began and spread. Since the explosion of the credit crisis around August 07, gold exploded from the $670s to a $1020s peak mid March. The Fed/Morgan Bear Stearns bailout occurred at that time. Right after, the financials rallied (XLF Spider) and gold has been selling off since. Other commodities also are following. The credit crisis caused a gold and commodity bubble. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Gold Tumbles After Fed Interest Rate Cut / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES continued to slide early Thursday, falling below Wednesday's 13-week low to trade at $862.40 per ounce as bond yields ticked higher following yesterday's "baby-step" rate cut from the Federal Reserve in Washington .With continental Europe closed for May Day, the London stock market was little changed in thin trade, while the British Pound held onto its overnight gains vs. the Dollar above $1.9850.
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Thursday, May 01, 2008
Leveraged Gold ETF's Signal the End for Gold Stock Investments? / Commodities / Exchange Traded Funds
By: Bob_Kirtley
During the last major rally in gold prices, gold stocks made some great gains and investors such as yours truly were happy to take good profits on the gold mining companies we had bought over the summer doldrums . However we should have seen a much better performance. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 01, 2008
If Investors Were Smart They'd be bidding up Gold and Silver Instead of Oil! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Alex_Wallenwein
If traders and investors were smart, they would bid up the price of gold instead of oil. Likewise, if governments and central banks were smart, they would take the lid off the gold price and actively encourage investment in that most precious of all commodities.
Why?
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Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Gold Plunges Ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF GOLD BULLION continued to slide early Wednesday, avoiding the collapse forecast by many analysts after dropping through $875 per ounce but reaching a series of fresh 3-month lows as the US Dollar rallied against the Euro, crude oil and the value of world stock markets."The previous low [of April 1st] has been taken out and the technicals now quickly point to $850," says today's Gold Market note from Mitsui, the precious metals dealer.
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Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Gold Breaks Below Technical Support Ahead of Fed Interest Rate Meeting / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down $18.20 to $874.70 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was down 45 cents to $16.57 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $867.75 £440.77 and €557.72 (from $886.00, £447.50 and €569.23).Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Agri-Foods Investment Boom Continues / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Hard to miss a news story on global situation in rice. More has been written on rice in past month than probably occurs in a year. At the same time, the price of oil was bid to an all time high. All that action fed the interest in gra ins, especially those t hat might be converted to biofuel. This headline attention on Agri-Food also fed investor interest. As this week's chart shows, Agri-Food stocks have been having a very good time.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Will the US Fed Create More Inflation in Commodities? / Commodities / Inflation
By: Clif_Droke
Inflation has been investors' main focus lately. A commonly held assumption is that the Fed's aggressive lowering of interest rates will only result in more inflation and an even bigger bulge in commodities prices. Is this a necessary outcome of increased liquidity and lower rates?
Let's examine this belief. Historically, we find that Inflation basically occurs in three situations:
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