Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Gold Remains Firm on Stagflation Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $901.70 in New York on Friday and was down 40 cents and silver closed at $17.33, up 1 cent. Gold was up over 4% last week and the close above $900 may prove important from a technical point of view in the coming weeks.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2008
Gold Holds Ahead of US Interest Rate Decision / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES gave back an early 0.6% rally in London on Monday, trading just shy of last week's close at $902 per ounce as crude oil bounced and European equities held flat.The world's biggest investment banks, meantime, issued a series of notes accusing each other of ever greater write-downs for the April-June quarter.
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Monday, June 23, 2008
Another Gold Attack, then North to $2,000! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Ordinarily, gold would be right before a major breakout point at this time, which should occur this week or the following week at the latest – but Wall Street and the entire US financial structure are so near a complete breakdown that another attack on gold must be expected. Here are the reasons why: Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Silver Fan and Pennant Corrective Pattern Resolving Towards Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
The arguments relating to gold apply in large part to silver, so here we will only detail the important differences and readers are referred to the parallel Gold Market update.
Like gold, silver has been marking out a 3-arc Fan Correction following its March peak, and the chief difference between the two is that silver looks even stronger. On the 1-year chart we can see that silver has marked out a more solid looking base line of support between about $16.20 and $16.50 above its rising 200-day moving average and we can also see that it is closer to breaking out above the 3rd fanline of the fan pattern.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Gold on the Cusp of a Major Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
Although gold has remained in the doldrums since the last update, there is plenty of evidence that another strong uptrend is solely a question of when, not if. On the 1-year chart we can see that the reactive phase in force from mid-March is taking the form of 3-arc Fan Correction that is now believed to be quite close to completion. These fan patterns typically start out with a steep, panicky selloff as intermediate traders realize that the game of over for the time being and hit the exits. This is normally followed by a significant bounce and then by a more measured decline that frequently wreaks the most damage because it drags on for alot longer, although that was not the case here. Then, after another bounce renewed decline sets in, but this time there is little selling pressure behind it, and this downleg frequently terminates only a little below the 2nd drop and sometimes at or above it, which is a sign of strength. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Gold Long-term Rating Once more Turns Bullish / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Gold was up every day this past week (and Friday of the previous) and still not really showing any great upside strength. Gold bugs always seem to think that up is the only direction but sometimes we get surprises. Are we in for one ahead?
GOLD : LONG TERM
With the continuous upside action there has been some changes to the long term indicators this past week. The price of gold has once more moved above its moving average line and the line remains in a positive slope.
Friday, June 20, 2008
SILVER and its Investment and Industrial Sides / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Morgan
What drives the price of silver? Certainly it is a function of buying and selling pressure, and primarily, this price setting mechanism takes place on the COMEX. However, so much has been written recently about short selling, price management, and naked sales, and on and on, that I wanted to take a more basic look at demand. Real demand and investment demand, regardless of how the price is set, fall into two main categories. We have investment demand (monetary demand), and we have industrial demand. In this year's World Silver Survey 2008, sponsored by the Silver Institute, under the Investment Chapter it states, “Investor activity was the main driver of the high and volatile silver price in 2007.”Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 20, 2008
Invsting in Sliver- SLV Silver ETF / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Zeal_LLC
On April 28th, 2006 , Barclays launched the first silver exchange-traded fund in the US . Traded on the AMEX as SLV, the iShares Silver Trust was eagerly anticipated by silver investors ahead of its birth. It ushered in a new era where vast pools of stock-market capital gained an easy conduit into the physical silver market.
One of the reasons investors originally liked SLV so much is silver consumers aggressively lobbied the SEC to kill it. The Silver Users Association wrote some fascinating letters to the SEC bemoaning the birth of SLV as the end of cheap silver as we knew it. Established in 1947, the SUA is an organization of industrial users of silver in applications including photographic, electronic, silverware, jewelry, and other fabrication.
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Friday, June 20, 2008
Gold BREAKOUT! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Peter_Degraaf
Gold is breaking out on the upside today, after having been contained in a bullish pennant formation for the past 93 days. This 93 day period satisfies the time element, (referring to the average of the late spring – early summer pull-backs in gold), since the current bull market began, in 2001.
Virtually every year we witness a Christmas rally in gold, with the seasonal lows coming in the spring, following a correction towards the 200DMA.
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Friday, June 20, 2008
Investors Reallocate from Oil to Gold as Inflation Defense / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES ticked higher from an overnight lull early Friday, recording the highest Morning Fix in London since June 9th at precisely $900.00 per ounce.Crude oil futures bounced more than 1% from Thursday's sudden $4 sell-off to $131 per barrel, while European stock markets dropped towards a three-month low, led by banking shares.
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Friday, June 20, 2008
Metals Market Trend Analysis 2008 to 2009- Part 1 / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: John_Lee
Oftentimes I talk to investors, even sophisticated ones, and I realize that they treat metals as a group. Particularly in the subset of base metals, most point out the price action of copper and conclude that all base metals are in a raging bull with no signs of slowing down. Close examination of correlation between various metal prices reveals a very different story, as we shall illustrate. (most charts here are from my friends at Kitco.com)
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Thursday, June 19, 2008
South African Gold Production Slumps by 10% Driving Gold Price Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $891.30 in New York yesterday and was up $6.90 and silver closed at $17.31, up 26 cents. Since then g old has again traded in a range between $88 5 and $89 5 in Asia n and in early European trading this morning .Gold rose in early trading in Europe when oil prices rose on news that Anglo-Dutch oil giant Shell had halted production at a major offshore oil facility in Nigeria because of a militant attack . It has since given back those early gains and dollar strength this morning seems to have led to a sell off in gold.
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Thursday, June 19, 2008
Gold Leaps to $905 as FBI Arrests Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Managers / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES leapt against all currencies at the US open on Thursday, surging to a four-week high above $905 per ounce on what looked to be one or more large New York orders amid an otherwise quiet market.
Crude oil bounced from an overnight dip as the US Dollar ticked gently lower on the forex market and energy-giant Shell closed 200,000 barrels of daily production in response to militant attacks in Nigeria .
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Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Solar Sun Spot Cycles Impact on Crop Yields, Energy Use and Weather Patterns / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Joseph_Dancy
Last month we listened to Donald Coxe's weekly presentation to institutional investors. Coxe is the Chairman and Chief Strategist of Harris Investment Management. He has been a bull on the commodity markets for some time now and has correctly pointed out numerous investment opportunities in the energy, metals, and grain markets.
We were surprised when he mentioned the historical nature of the solar cycle and its' potential impact on global weather patterns and the agricultural sector. Most of the time Coxe he restricts himself to ‘worldly' indicators of supply and demand. Apparently an article on the subject recently appeared in Investor's Business Daily.
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Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Gold Wedged Between Support and Resistance / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Very interesting situation developing in spot gold -- and by extension, the GLD (streetTRACKS Gold Shares). Let's notice that the price structure is wedge-in between the rising 200 DMA (support at $859), and the 50 & 21 DMAs (resistance) as well as the March-June resistance line all clustered around $900. My sense is that if gold hurdles and sustains above $900, gold prices could rocket towards $1000 again.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Smart Money Heading Back into Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The current lull in the gold market may signal a great chance to buy before the price moves sharply higher once more..."
WHAT YOU MAKE of the gold market right now depends on what you make of the kind of data UBS's precious metals team follow.
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Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Energy Sector Strong Bullish Trends Due to Demand Growth Fundamentals / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Joseph_Dancy
The price of crude oil hovered around $100 a barrel last month, while natural gas futures pushed toward $10 per thousand cubic feet. Both are impressive due to the fact we are in ‘shoulder season' – a time when moderating weather tends to weaken prices. Long term demand and supply trends remain powerfully bullish. Last month the following events occurred in the energy sector:Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Gold Cheap on Oil Ratio Basis / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $883.20 in New York yesterday and was up $13.30 and silver closed at $1 7.24 up 67 cents. Gold traded in a range between $880 and $890 in Asia n and in European trading this morning prior to selling off at the open on the NYMEX . With oil selling off and the dollar stronger versus the euro today, gold has come under pressure. But the inflation genie is well and truly out of the bottle and central banks internationally are in an extremely difficult situation. Unfortunately, present macroeconomic conditions look set to worsen (possibly considerably) in the coming months before they get better. Stagflation is increasing by the day and this will result in gold outperforming other asset classes in the coming months as it did in the 1970's.
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Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Western Policy-Makers Refuse to Raise Interest Rates to Combat Surging Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES slipped out of a tight range just before the US open on Tuesday as strong volatility hit bonds, commodities and currency markets worldwide.Shanghai stocks dropped almost 3% on average, while crude oil slid $7 per barrel from Monday's new record highs near $140.
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Monday, June 16, 2008
New Socio-Economic Era Dawning Out of Credit and Fuel Crisis / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Brian_Bloom
Several weeks ago this analyst expressed the view that the US Equity markets were in the early stages of a Primary Bear Market and that investors should be more focused on capital preservation than on capital growth.
In hindsight, I continue to hold this view. The core issue seems to be that banks (led by Citigroup), in moving to bring off-balance-sheet items back onto their balance sheets, will likely expose the weaknesses in those balance sheets in the process; and there will likely be a deterioration in their ability/willingness to lend. Additionally, for reasons set out in the body of this article, it seems that the US Fed's ability to create money “out of thin air” is also waning. On balance, it seems that a higher reliance will be placed on equity than on debt in the capital markets. Where will this equity come from? Between them, the BRIC countries and OPEC may have up to $5.8 trillion to invest.
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