Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Crude Oil Price Deflation Most Oversold Since the Great Depression / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Captain_Hook
Most financial commentators, even the well-known and respected ones, just don't get it. They don't understand what's happening in macro-conditions because they fail to accept the understanding that sentiment, as measured by speculator betting practices in the various options markets populating the landscape, is the single most important driver of prices in our mature fiat currency based financial markets. What this means is no matter how much money and bailouts our bureaucracy sponsors, until the collect mind changes, as measured by rising open interest put / call ratios on the major US indexes, meaning the speculators are becoming more pessimistic, in general, prices will keep falling. Of course this can change, and corrections (higher at present) will occur, however if you are waiting for unbridled monetary and fiscal largesse to result in hyperinflation with declining numbers of bearish equity market speculators to squeeze, you are likely in for a disappointment. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Gold the Investment for 2009 Amidst Global Economic Crisis and Competitive Currency Devaluations / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold rose 2% last week (and silver 6%) for the third week of rising prices. Continuing safe haven demand for gold seems to be driving the market as gold has rallied again at the start of this week with the dollar only slightly lower and oil prices only slightly higher.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Inflation or Deflation, Look to Gold for the Answer / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Vaughn
Our world is becoming ever more a dangerous place to live. Now, our own president cannot carry out his duty without having to swerve to avoid a thrown shoe. But, wow, did it leave his hair disheveled. Needs a haircut anyway. Too long and shaggy. George, look out for those thrown shoes! But what about that debate over who will take precedence…deflation or inflation?Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Gold Backwardation Forward Thinking / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Professor_Emeritus
In an earlier article Backward Thinking on Backwardation I explained that backwardation in gold is the flipside of the phenomenon of a drastic contraction of world trade and employment. This brings out the danger in denying the fact of gold backwardation or to belittle its significance, as most observers seem to be doing. I am reminded of the saying of the Swiss educator F.W. Foerster: "if you don't use your eyes for seeing, later you will use them for weeping." In this article I want to enumerate the reasons why I believe that permanent backwardation in gold would bring about the descent of our civilization into lawlessness similar to that following the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Gold's Inverse Relationship to the U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
As the U.S. $ Index and the price of gold bullion seem to be moving in opposite directions one wonders once more who is leading and who is following (albeit in opposite direction)? More importantly, where is each going? Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Physical Silver- Where is it? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Morgan
I received a phone call from Tarek Saab, a former finalist on Donald Trump's television show, The Apprentice . At first I was a bit suspicious because, believe it or not, there are a few flakes floating around the gold and silver arena, and having someone claim to be associated with The Donald did send up warning flags. I must state, however, that perhaps to an outsider, all gold and silver bugs probably seem nuts!Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 20, 2008
The Future of Silver- TELEPATHIC interview with Adam Smith / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Robert_Singer
Robert Singer, recently proclaimed a Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) interviews Adam Smith, telepathically. I got out my new Matrix Mind-ray Scanner, delivered before The Sharper Image and our way of life filed for bankruptcy and Googled “who is the founding father of economics”. Results: Richard Cantillon, Alexander Hamilton and Adam Smith. I never heard of Cantillion and Hamilton is the father of Crony Capitalism. I selected Adam Smith and set the device on “Interview” and typedRead full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
David Morgan: Spring May Bring Silver “Obama Rally” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
By: The_Gold_Report
Typical pre-teen boys may be as committed to collecting coins as they are baseball cards, but to find 11-year-olds intrigued by the M1 money supply, fiat currency and the silver standard would be a rarity by anyone’s standards. David Morgan, whose interest in silver dates to that tender age, was one of the rare ones—and still is. Although his horizon has expanded considerably since those days, he now stands out among the world’s preeminent silver authorities, investment experts and worldview economists.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
Massive U.S. Dollar Devaluation Against Gold During 2009 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: John_Browne
The Federal Reserve estimates that in the past year losses in real estate, stocks and mortgages have sucked out some $7.2 trillion of wealth from the U.S. economy. Some are now putting the figure at $20 trillion. A massive recession is starting and will likely spread throughout much of the world. These forces have exerted their classic strong downward pressure on the price of gold.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
Gold Stock Vs Paper Fiat Asset Valuations / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Yes, the numbers of rough. But people choose gold when paper collapses in value..."
RUNNING into YEAR-END 2008 with a hatful of fears, losses, hope and questions?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
Analysis of the Relationship Between Gold and Crude Oil Price Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: John_Lee
As I toured around the world to talk about the merits of gold during the last several years, the same question was posed to me over and over again
"John, oil is $80, $100, $150 a barrel, why hasn't gold lived up to its reputation as a hedge against inflation?"
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
The Great Gold Stock Panic Ends and Buying Begins / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Zeal_LLC
The Great Stock Panic of 2008 was so mercilessly brutal that no sector escaped its ravages. Unfortunately gold stocks, despite their history of performing really well during general-stock bears, also succumbed to the universal panic selling. Extreme fear snowballed without relent until even long-time gold-stock enthusiasts capitulated and dumped their shares in disgust. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
Gold 2009 Trend Unknown Due to Global Deflation and ZIRP / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE of gold tumbled in Asia and London on Friday morning, sliding $42 from yesterday's top – and cutting this week's gains by four-fifths to 1.5% – as stock markets also sank despite fresh rate cuts from the world's No.3 central bank. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
Silver to Outperform Gold During 2009 as World Faces Deflationary Meltdown / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold fell yesterday on a bounce in the dollar and renewed weakness in the oil and commodity markets. While gold has clearly decoupled from oil and commodities in recent weeks, due to its safe haven currency credentials, oil and the commodities can still effect gold’s performance in the short term. As can weakness in stock markets. Gold trading on the COMEX in the US opening hours has been increasingly correlated with stock markets in recent weeks and months . This correlation with stock markets is however of a short term nature as can clearly be seen in gold’s outperformance of equity markets in recent months and years.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Backward Thinking on Gold Futures Backwardation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Professor_Emeritus
On Monday, December 15, backwardation on gold was still in force at an annualized discount rate that narrowed to 1.55% in the December contract, but widened to 0.36% in the February contract. 12,673 contracts remain for tender in December, including an additional 37 contracts since last Friday. The discount on the December futures was 50¢ offered to those owners of physical gold who would transfer the carry to the market for the remaining 14 in December, or 60¢ for the 72 days deferred delivery for the February contract. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
High Silver Premiums and Comex Delivery / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
This article is intended as a follow up to the large number of emails I received after my article on high premiums on retail bullion silver. Needless to say, not everyone was in agreement with me and that was the majority! But first, I was in contact with a large bullion provider in London with whom I have dealt with in the past. Like other dealers they have experienced high demand and they too have had to put the "Sold Out" sign on silver bar products. I put the obvious question to them, " Is this a silver shortage? " to which he replied " Don't believe the hype! ". Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Crude Oil Bounces, But... / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
After making all-time new lows right at 33.00, the US Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) has bounced to the 33.60/80 area so far…but needs to challenge and hurdle 34.25 to begin to get any real traction on the upside -- for continuation towards my optimal next recovery target at 35.70-36.20.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Gold Rally Continues as Bonds Fall to Record Lows / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT WHOLESALE GOLD PRICES continued to rise early in London on Thursday, recording the best AM Gold Fix in 10 weeks as European stock markets stalled and government bonds leapt yet again, squashing UK gilt yields to new record lows.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Gold the Ultimate Safehaven as U.S. Dollar Crashes / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold’s safe haven credentials have been reaffirmed in recent days as the dollar’s safe haven appeal is increasingly being questioned (see News and Commentary section of homepage). The scale and speed of the decline of the dollar (and to a lesser extent sterling) in recent days is unprecedented.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Bernanke's Quantitative Easing Good for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: HRA_Advisory
So, it comes to this. The Fed announced the most anticipated rate cut in history; though some didn't expect 75-100 bps based on the ecstasy on Wall St after the announcement. This move brings the Fed to the end of Stage One in its battle to save the world from the aftereffects of the credit bubble. The Fed can't cut rates any farther and, based on where short term Treasuries have been trading lately, this move just made official what the market had already priced in. A big upward move in the main US equity indices notwithstanding this was hardly a shocker. The other group that reacted with equal vigor was the currency traders. Read full article... Read full article...
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