Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, December 19, 2008
Gold 2009 Trend Unknown Due to Global Deflation and ZIRP / Commodities / Gold & Silver
THE SPOT PRICE of gold tumbled in Asia and London on Friday morning, sliding $42 from yesterday's top – and cutting this week's gains by four-fifths to 1.5% – as stock markets also sank despite fresh rate cuts from the world's No.3 central bank.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
Silver to Outperform Gold During 2009 as World Faces Deflationary Meltdown / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Gold fell yesterday on a bounce in the dollar and renewed weakness in the oil and commodity markets. While gold has clearly decoupled from oil and commodities in recent weeks, due to its safe haven currency credentials, oil and the commodities can still effect gold’s performance in the short term. As can weakness in stock markets. Gold trading on the COMEX in the US opening hours has been increasingly correlated with stock markets in recent weeks and months . This correlation with stock markets is however of a short term nature as can clearly be seen in gold’s outperformance of equity markets in recent months and years.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Backward Thinking on Gold Futures Backwardation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
On Monday, December 15, backwardation on gold was still in force at an annualized discount rate that narrowed to 1.55% in the December contract, but widened to 0.36% in the February contract. 12,673 contracts remain for tender in December, including an additional 37 contracts since last Friday. The discount on the December futures was 50¢ offered to those owners of physical gold who would transfer the carry to the market for the remaining 14 in December, or 60¢ for the 72 days deferred delivery for the February contract.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
High Silver Premiums and Comex Delivery / Commodities / Gold & Silver
This article is intended as a follow up to the large number of emails I received after my article on high premiums on retail bullion silver. Needless to say, not everyone was in agreement with me and that was the majority! But first, I was in contact with a large bullion provider in London with whom I have dealt with in the past. Like other dealers they have experienced high demand and they too have had to put the "Sold Out" sign on silver bar products. I put the obvious question to them, " Is this a silver shortage? " to which he replied " Don't believe the hype! ".Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Crude Oil Bounces, But... / Commodities / Crude Oil
After making all-time new lows right at 33.00, the US Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) has bounced to the 33.60/80 area so far…but needs to challenge and hurdle 34.25 to begin to get any real traction on the upside -- for continuation towards my optimal next recovery target at 35.70-36.20.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Gold Rally Continues as Bonds Fall to Record Lows / Commodities / Gold & Silver
SPOT WHOLESALE GOLD PRICES continued to rise early in London on Thursday, recording the best AM Gold Fix in 10 weeks as European stock markets stalled and government bonds leapt yet again, squashing UK gilt yields to new record lows.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Gold the Ultimate Safehaven as U.S. Dollar Crashes / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Gold’s safe haven credentials have been reaffirmed in recent days as the dollar’s safe haven appeal is increasingly being questioned (see News and Commentary section of homepage). The scale and speed of the decline of the dollar (and to a lesser extent sterling) in recent days is unprecedented.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Bernanke's Quantitative Easing Good for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver
So, it comes to this. The Fed announced the most anticipated rate cut in history; though some didn't expect 75-100 bps based on the ecstasy on Wall St after the announcement. This move brings the Fed to the end of Stage One in its battle to save the world from the aftereffects of the credit bubble. The Fed can't cut rates any farther and, based on where short term Treasuries have been trading lately, this move just made official what the market had already priced in. A big upward move in the main US equity indices notwithstanding this was hardly a shocker. The other group that reacted with equal vigor was the currency traders.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Gold Alert Next Stop $1000 and Gold Stocks to Outperform Bullion / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Gold has now entered the next and major leg of the long-term gold bull market after correcting down from $1,035. We believe it is now targeting $1,000, initially . This will be achieved with pullbacks and periods of consolidation.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Gold and Gold Stocks 2009 Boost from Central Bank Quantitative Easing Measures / Commodities / Gold & Silver
The US Fed just cut its Fed Funds target to 0 to .25% and is also likely to use other means to lower interest rates in the US such as buying long term US Treasuries and other bonds directly. The rationale is that merely lowering the Fed Funds rates is not finding its way into credit markets because lenders still don't want to lend.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Gold Stocks B Wave Rally Underway / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
Bustling shoppers amidst packed shopping malls, bungled with parcels and bags draped over arms, causing more skin lines than a heroine addict. Panic-stricken parents eyes quickly dashing left to right up and down, praying…hoping that one of their required gimmick Christmas items remain for their little ones…Tickle Me Elmo in the 1990's, Wii units and accessories for the 2000's…what will it be next year?Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Gold Stocks Imminent Pullback Buying Opportunity? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
With yesterday's historic Fed move and the wild action we have seen in gold the past few months a lot of people have been asking about gold stocks. Since 2002 I have been in and out of the gold market, catching some of the great moves we have seen in the past few years and becoming known as a big believer in the long-term secular bull trend in gold. I also have had a reputation for being objective when it comes to gold, because at times I have taken profits in gold and have sat on the sidelines. Let me tell you what I see now.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Investors Dump Dollars for Gold Physical Metal / Commodities / Gold & Silver
THE SPOT GOLD MARKET held inside a tight $10 range early Wednesday after jumping to a nine-week high of $860 per ounce overnight after the US Federal Reserve chose the nuclear-option of zero interest rates.With US Dollars effectively free to borrow in New York's bank-to-bank market (they already cost just 0.13% last week), crude oil rose back above $45 per barrel on expectations of a major cut to Opec output quotas later today.
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Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Gold Spikes Higher on Unprecedented Fed Interest Rate Cut Low / Commodities / Gold & Silver
The surprise move by the Fed to lower the Fed funds rate by more than 75 basis points to a record low and an unprecedented band between 0.25% and 0% led to sharp falls in the dollar (low of 1.4188 to the euro) and a spike in the gold price to over $859.40/oz.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Upside Seen for Agribusiness ETF / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO) has spent the past 2 1/2 months or so carving out a base-like formation in the aftermath of a multi-month decline from 66.20 to 20.08 (-70%). The base-like pattern should resolve itself to the upside and will represent the central portion of an intermediate-term recovery rally period that should propel the MOO to 30.00-31.00. Only a break below 25.70 will begin to compromise the developing constructive pattern.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Profit from the Commodities Bull Market During 2009 / Commodities / CRB Index
Martin Hutchinson writes: Between September 2007 and June 2008, oil prices doubled, gold rose 30% and commodities, in general, advanced by a similar percentage. So why, six months later, when prices have fallen back below last year's levels, does everybody think they won't rise again? The difficulties of extraction haven't gone away, nor have the prospects of increasing consumption in the faster-growing emerging markets such as China. Yes, the prices of commodities are severely affected by marginal moves in supply and demand, but this is ridiculous!Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
U.S. Interest Rate Cuts to Drive Gold Bull Market During 2009 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
THE PRICE OF WHOLESALE GOLD slipped lower early in London on Tuesday, recording the best Gold Fix in two months at $833.50 an ounce but trading 1% below Monday's top in the spot market.Tokyo stocks ended the day 1% down, while London shares held flat. The US Dollar regained one of yesterday's four-cent losses vs. the Euro.
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Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Gold Strong Bull Market Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Gold rose again yesterday and the dollar fell sharply in anticipation of the Federal Reserve further slashing interest rates to record lows of 0.5% today.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Crude Oil Forecast 2009 and Geopolitical Implications / Commodities / Crude Oil
Oil prices have now dipped — albeit only briefly — below US$40 a barrel, a precipitous plunge from their highs of more than US$147 a barrel in July. Just as high oil prices reworked the international economic order, low oil prices are now doing the same. Such a sudden onset of low prices impacts the international system just as severely as recent record highs.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 15, 2008
Agri-Foods Representing Rare Value Investment Opportunity / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
A funny thing happened on the way to the end of commodity investing for all of time. What was it? Commodity prices bottomed, and started going up. Wow, could the Street strategists possibly be wrong? Is that conceivable? Is not oil at $200 as was forecast? No, that's right, they changed the forecast. Oil is now going to $10 in the Spring. Ignoring the inability of the Street to understand that commodities is really composed of three sectors, one of which is Agri-Food, would probably be wise. The other two are mineral ores, like copper and Gold, and energy, like oil and natural gas.Read full article... Read full article...
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