Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
The Gold Stocks are Tracking Past Equity Bull Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
All bull markets have similarities and all equity bull markets have strong similarities. They go through similar phases. Most bull markets start off slow and then build towards what we like to say is an acceleration into a bubble and potential mania. In last weeks editorial we noted how bull markets, prior to the bubble phase, tend to make major bottoms every three or so years. Yet, in looking at the present bull market in gold stocks and comparing it to the previous three equity bull markets (Technology, Japan and Gold Stocks) we find stronger and deeper similarities which confirms to us that the gold stocks are in the bull market of our time.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Who Really Owns Your Gold Stocks? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Jeff_Berwick
Do you own gold and silver mining stocks? Or any stocks for that matter? Even if you say, "yes", chances are you don't really own them.
It is one of the dirtiest little secrets in the brokerage business. And 99.9% of people have no idea it is even being done to them. It's called "street name registration" and it's how the brokerage where you hold your stocks "registers" your shares. To save money and time, and to allow your shares to be included as assets that THEY can use to do what they want with, your brokerage never actually registers you as an owner of the shares.
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Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Two Gold Related Long/Short Pair Trades For 2012 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Bob_Kirtley
Pair trading is a trading strategy based on the concepts of statistical arbitrage and convergence. Typically it involves being long one security and short another. For example one may believe that Apple would outperform Microsoft, so one buys Apple and shorts Microsoft. A pair trade may also involve two trading two markets that usually move close together but have drifted apart, for example the US and UK stock markets. If the FTSE has rallied strongly when the S&P has not, the trader may decide to short the FTSE and buy the S&P, taking the view than the US stock market will catch up to the performance of the UK stock market. Whilst our primary focus is on trading options, we have identified what we believe are two attractive pair trades for 2012.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Did The Silver Bubble Burst? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Willem_Weytjens
Gold bugs argue that Gold is far from being a Bubble. Especially not when you look at the following comparison, which plots Gold’s rise versus the Nasdaq’s rise in the 1990's.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Correction Over in Crude Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Increasingly, my near-term work is "warning" me that the correction in NYMEX crude oil from its Jan 4 high at 103.74 likely ended at this morning's pre-market low at 100.83.
A climb above 102.05/15 will confirm the low and indicate that a new up-leg is in progress for oil and the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO) that should propel futures prices towards 106-108 next.
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Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Can Gold and Silver Overcome U.S. Dollar Strength? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Eric_McWhinnie
According to the most recent data, commercial banks’ overnight deposits at the European Central bank reached a new record high of 464 billion euros. Another record high in ECB deposits shows that European banks would rather lose money than take the risk of lending to each other. It is also the latest reminder that nothing is solved in the euro zone crisis. However, the U.S. financial markets have been able to decouple from Europe, for the time being. Even more decoupling can be seen in precious metals.
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Monday, January 09, 2012
Euro Hits New Lows, Swiss Franc Bounces: What does it means for Gold and Silver? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Jeb_Handwerger
Commodities In Characteristic Selloff
Once again at the end of 2011 we heard the voices of negation sounding the fear of the bursting of the commodities bubble. The naysayers come out with their Cassandra calls whenever commodities go into a characteristic and salubrious selloff. They never really learn to respect the importance of gold (GLD) and silver's (SLV) role in the long range secular multiyear ongoing rise.
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Monday, January 09, 2012
Gold Still as Basket Case Europe Means Germany Now Getting Paid to Borrow Money / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Ben_Traynor
U.S. DOLLAR gold bullion prices touched $1623 an ounce Monday morning London time – a 1% rally from the low hit during Asian trading – before falling back slightly, while stocks, industrial commodities and major government bond prices all ticked lower.
"[Gold bullion] remains above its 3-year bullish support that now lies at $1544," says technical analyst Russell Browne at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.
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Monday, January 09, 2012
Year of Dragon on Shanghai Gold Exchange Sees 2nd, 3rd Highest Volume on Record / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: GoldCore
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,618.00, GBP 1,047.38, and EUR 1,266.54 per ounce.
Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,621.00, GBP 1,045.67, and EUR 1,045.67 per ounce.
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Sunday, January 08, 2012
Silver Head and Shoulders Top Suggesting Price Crash / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Clive_Maund
A large and very bearish looking Head-and-Shoulders top appears to be completing in silver which portends a severe decline and thus a deflationary downwave. However, a factor complicating the picture in recent weeks has been the COT structure for silver and sentiment indicators, both of which look very bullish. For reasons that are set out in the parallel Gold Market update, the COT is believed to be highly deceptive at this time, and with regards to sentiment indicators, there is the scope for readings to get even worse (even more bullish) in the event of a breakdown and severe decline.
Sunday, January 08, 2012
Gold Strongly Bearish Price Patterns and COT Confusion Cleared / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Clive_Maund
We have in recent weeks been rather confused by the contradiction between the strongly bearish price patterns that are developing in gold and silver, which are indicative of a major top that portends a brutal deflationary downwave, and the seemingly bullish COTs and sentiment for the sector. Now we believe that we have come to a realization with regards to what is going on with the COTs, which will be set out lower down the page - first we will look at the price pattern development.
Sunday, January 08, 2012
Warning Fake High Quality Gold, Silver Coins and Ignots / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Submissions
Paul Behan writes: There are currently many fake gold and silver ingots and coins being made and sold out of China. Many of these items are made to a high quality and are hard to tell from the original for those not familiar with the original items.
Sunday, January 08, 2012
Crude Oil Prices Moving To Red Alert / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Peak oil is moving back fast as permitted dinner time talk - and office time action with futures and
options. And the reasons are multiple, well known, but heavily discounted until now. Through late
2011, many times, the IEA's chief economist Fatih Birol has outlined how radically the IEA sees the oil
price outlook, particularly the coming and fast intensifying trend of reserve depletion hitting onshore,
mature, conventional oil production. Lost in the climate crisis talk however, the oil price message was
often sidelined. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 08, 2012
Gold and Dogma / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Brian_Bloom
Some analysts believe that gold has bottomed . I think they may be missing something important. The global financial game may have changed because Europe is being seen as more of a basket case than the US
Yes, gold was oversold and needed to bounce up. The problem flows from the first two charts below (courtesy stockcharts.com):
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Sunday, January 08, 2012
Was 2011 a Springboard for Gold 2012? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Jeff_Clark
By Jeff Clark, Casey Research writes: 2011 was remarkable in many ways for the precious metals markets. Gold soared to new highs in early September, hitting at an intraday record of $1,920/ounce on the fifth. Silver screamed to within a hair of $50 on April 28. Corrections ensued, and the metals ended the year on a disappointing note for silver and an underwhelming note for gold. Equities for the sector were down, to way down for junior ventures, logging their worst annual return since 2008.
Saturday, January 07, 2012
Gold, Silver, Wall Street's Best Bet for Crisis-Beating Returns / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Adrian_Ash
So how did the top US mutual funds stack up vs. the gold price since 2007...?
PAST PERFORMANCE is no guide to the future. But if you don't study history, just what will you track instead?
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Saturday, January 07, 2012
Why Rising Debt Will Lead to $10,000 Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Nick_Barisheff
Good afternoon, it's a pleasure to speak about gold at this Outlook for 2012.
Today, I'd like to focus on one important idea: the direct relationship between the rising price of gold and the rising levels of government debt that result in currency debasement. Since we measure investment performance in currencies a clear understanding of the outlook for currencies is critical.
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Saturday, January 07, 2012
Cheap Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold had a tough December, falling 10.5% to grind along near its worst levels since July. This sparked hyper-bearish sentiment and end-of-gold’s-secular-bull talk. Naturally gold stocks fared even worse in this rampant gold pessimism, with the flagship HUI gold-stock index plunging 14.7%. But this selling was radically overdone, as compared to gold’s absolute levels gold stocks remain incredibly cheap.
Friday, January 06, 2012
Silver Confirms the Bullish Outlook for Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Przemyslaw_Radomski
The new year started off with a bang with precious metals out-shining the competition. Is this a harbinger of things to come? We think so and we are not alone. Forecasts for gold for 2012 include a price per ounce of $2,200 by Morgan Stanley, $2,050 by UBS, and $2,000 by Barclays.
Friday, January 06, 2012
Gold Confiscation a Reality? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Many of the leading fund managers in the U.S. and elsewhere are expecting that governments will confiscate their citizen's gold. This will not be for the same reasons used in 1933. It will be to facilitate loans, swaps lower interest rates, and shore up international confidence in the turbulent, stressed paper-currency world in which we live. Each nation issues paper as money, dependent on the trust that nation can engender at home and abroad. But is this going to be sufficient, moving into an ever more turbulent 2012?